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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
263
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Posted - 2012.04.25 15:01:00 -
[1] - Quote
Lots of talk lately about mineral prices, a lot of people nudging their position but few prepared to put their money (publically) where their mouth is.
A bet makes things altogether more interesting and perhaps a welcome change to "X will crash!" and "Y will reach the sky!" posts.
So, here it is.
I bet that two months from yesterday's patch (ie. on the 24th June):
- The forge average price of Nocxium will be lower than it was on the 24th April patch day (951.47)
- The forge average price of Pyerite will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (7.10)
- The forge average price of Isogen will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (97.42)
To further sweeten the pot I'll say that my winning relies on an "and" condition (ie. I win if nocx goes down AND pye goes up AND iso goes up), wheras if only one or two of my predictions is proven correct I'll lose.
Now, I'm not quite as succesful as my facebook profile would have visitors believe so I'm going to limit this to ten individuals at 50m each. Happy to run this on space nerd e-honour so don't go sending money now, we'll settle up on the 24th June (if anyone considers my space nerd honour so lacking that I might welch on a bet just holler and I'll thow my stake at Shar or VV or someone).
Maths will follow below but basically I figured out something incredibly clever. This is dangerous as I'm liable to do something incredibly stupid (like, for example, bet the world 500m on my back-of-phone-bill maths) before I realise that what I initially thought was incredibly clever was actually incredibly stupid. My rough prediction are for nocxium to end up between 850 and 1050, pyerite to end up between 9 and 10, and isogen to end up between 95 and 115. In order of decreasing confidence: pyerite, isogen, nocxium.
Finally, never fly what you can't afford to lose, never invest what you can't afford to lose, and never gamble what you can't afford to lose.
Any takers? |
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
27
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Posted - 2012.04.25 15:11:00 -
[2] - Quote
My Guess is close to yours..
I think TRT will be around 7.55, PYR @ 8.45 , ISO @ 108
and refer to Akitas thread on "The Sky is the Limit, the Sky is Falling"
:)
Target : [email protected]
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Liberty Eternal
Red Federation RvB - RED Federation
61
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Posted - 2012.04.25 15:55:00 -
[3] - Quote
Tekota wrote:So, here it is. I bet that two months from yesterday's patch (ie. on the 24th June):
- The forge average price of Nocxium will be lower than it was on the 24th April patch day (951.47)
- The forge average price of Pyerite will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (7.10)
- The forge average price of Isogen will be higher than it was on the 24th April patch day (97.42)
I 'm going to limit this to ten individuals at 50m each. Happy to run this on space nerd e-honour so don't go sending money now, we'll settle up on the 24th June (if anyone considers my space nerd honour so lacking that I might welch on a bet just holler and I'll thow my stake at Shar or VV or someone). Any takers?
I'll take that bet. 50 mil it is |
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
264
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Posted - 2012.04.25 16:02:00 -
[4] - Quote
You, sir, have a bet.
9 more slots left peeps. |
Durin Sarga
Lionhearted Investment Services and Planning STORM.
3
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Posted - 2012.04.25 16:42:00 -
[5] - Quote
Eh. For 50M I'll take a slot. |
VaMei
Meafi Corp
129
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Posted - 2012.04.25 16:46:00 -
[6] - Quote
I'll take that bet. |
Bath Sheeba
Another Success Story
48
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:05:00 -
[7] - Quote
I'll take that bet. 50m. |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
69
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:18:00 -
[8] - Quote
Tekota wrote:...
- The forge average price of Nocxium will be lower than it was on the 24th April patch day (951.47)
You can do a similar bet by short selling Nocxium: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=95656&find=unread
Place your bet with a contract. Only 10M ISK per contract.
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clixor
Celluloid Gurus
7
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:32:00 -
[9] - Quote
I'll take it as well. |
Ms Bax
Union Of EVE
0
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:39:00 -
[10] - Quote
looks like tritanium is on the way down now. I sure hope you're right but I actually doubt it.
Hope you win. |
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
264
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:46:00 -
[11] - Quote
Indeed one can. Personally the reason I chose to bet this way are three fold: 1) I figure the result will be very close. If nocxium ends 0.01 isk lower than yesterday's price (and iso iso is 0.01 up, and pye is 0.01 up) I win. A 0.01isk short on nocxium however wouldn't be particularly profitable. 2) Opportunity costs of maintenance margin are not tied up, isk is won or lost on one day in the future. 3) Simplicity. I'll be the first to admit that it took me a couple of readings of your short system before I fully understood the mechanics. A bet format is quick and simple.
Meanwhile Durin Saga, VaMei, Bath Sheeba and Clixor bets added, five more slots left. |
Lauren Hellfury
Full Pocket Aggro In Vitro.
328
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:59:00 -
[12] - Quote
Stick me in for one (and any left over if you get bored waiting for more bets) Help rid New Eden of T2 BPOs:-áhttps://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=62797 The Full Pocket Aggro blog:-á http://fullpocketaggro.blogspot.com/ Now showing: The incursion situation |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
4
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Posted - 2012.04.25 18:07:00 -
[13] - Quote
Put me down for a bet
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
264
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Posted - 2012.04.25 18:14:00 -
[14] - Quote
LH & Driftfire added, 3 more slots remaining. |
Wyke Mossari
Staner Industries
220
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Posted - 2012.04.25 18:34:00 -
[15] - Quote
I'll take that a punt on this.
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MailDeadDrop
Rage and Terror Against ALL Authorities
27
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Posted - 2012.04.25 18:36:00 -
[16] - Quote
Point of order: what definition of "average price" are you using?
MDD |
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
264
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Posted - 2012.04.25 18:41:00 -
[17] - Quote
MailDeadDrop wrote:Point of order: what definition of "average price" are you using? MDD
The average price for the day in the forge region as shown in the table view of the price history in the market window as it's independently verifiable and the best we have of an "official" daily average. This will mean we won't know average price on the 24th June till after downtime on the 25th June.
Wyke Mossari added, 2 more slots remaining. |
Aebe Amraen
Logolepsy
12
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Posted - 2012.04.25 18:48:00 -
[18] - Quote
I'll take it. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
655
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Posted - 2012.04.25 20:13:00 -
[19] - Quote
I don't bet by principle but I think Nocx could go above your prediction because of inflation offsetting its drop. I'd have to slap down some analysis to know something more but that will have to wait till my PC is back from repair shop (next week). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Moto Akimoto
Tengu and Cash
11
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Posted - 2012.04.25 20:32:00 -
[20] - Quote
I'll take the last one, Tekota. Light this puppy up. |
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
264
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Posted - 2012.04.26 08:23:00 -
[21] - Quote
Excellent, we're rolling, all slots now filled and soon enough we'll find out (after DT on the 25th June) whether forge average prices on 24th June met predictions or not.
I promised maths. To requote - I figured out something incredibly clever. This is dangerous as I'm liable to do something incredibly stupid (like, for example, bet the world 500m on my back-of-phone-bill maths) before I realise that what I initially thought was incredibly clever was actually incredibly stupid.
I think stupid stands a damn good chance :o)
Still. My starting position was to kind of decouple supply and, particularly demand, effects from hi sec mineral pricing and work on a basis that all hi sec ores eventually find an equilibrium in isk/hr due to the relative ease of switching from one ore to another in hi sec and the availability of good easy to use tools like Cerleste's Ore Table. History has shown hi-sec ores to track eachother in isk/hr *fairly* well, within 20% or so, over time - often with the exception of Omber, which is fruity for (personally) largely unknown reasons but could be the Materials For War Prep mission realising part of the ore's value, and could be something icky in Iso consumption.
So with that said, we need to start guestimating a figure for isk/hr achievable for hi sec mining, and the average m3/hr of say a solo hulk pilot. I started with a mining income of 20m isk/hr with hulks pulling 100k m3 per hour which equals an isk/m3 of $200.
So, if 1m3 of any given hi sec ore costs $200 then this means 1m3 of veldspar has a value of $200 - and with 30.03 units of trit in 1m3 of veldspar we can calculate that 200/30.03 and tritanium must therefore be $6.66.
What about scordite? Well, we're assuming 1m3 of scordite is worth $200 just like veld, and we know that for 1m3 of veld to be worth $200 trit must be at $6.66, we know that 1m3 of scordite contains 16.68 units of trit for a total of $111.09 in trit value, therefore the remaining $88.91 worth of scord value must be made up by the 8.33 units of pyerite; $88.91/8.33 gives us a price for pye of $10.67
Following on to plagioclase we know the same formula: Price of plagioclase = (price of trit * quantitiy of trit) + (price of pye * quantity of pye) + (price of mex * quantity of mex) We now just fill in the known variables as established already: $200 = ($6.66 * 2.2) + ($10.67 * 4.39) + (price of mex * 2.2) I'm sure we all did these sort of maths at school, we simplify: $200 = $14.65 + $46.84 + (price of mex * 2.2) In short, if 1m3 of veld costs $200 then trit must cost $6.66, and if 1m3 of scord costs $200 and trit costs $6.66 then pye must cost $10.67 and if 1m3 of plag costs $200 and trit costs $6.66 and pye costs $10.67 then mex must cost: $62.95
Onto pyroxeres: Price of pyrox = (price of trit * quantitiy of trit) + (price of pye * quantity of pye) + (price of mex * quantity of mex) + (price of nocx * quantity of nocx) $200 = ($6.66 * 8.45) + ($10.67 * 0.59) + ($62.95 * 1.2) + (price of nocx * 0.11) To solve the pyrox formula the price of nocx must be $526.59
Kernite: Price of kernite = (price of trit * quantitiy of trit) + (price of mex * quantity of mex) + (price of iso * quantity of iso) $200 = ($6.66 * 0.8) + ($62.95 * 1.61) + (price of iso * 0.8) To solve the kernite formula the price of iso must be $116.65
Leaving omber for last, as previously stated it's always a bit fruity. But we already know the prices of trit, pye and iso from the working above, so in a perfect world the value of 1m3 of omber using prices obtained above should equal $200 just like all the other ores. We don't live in a perfect world. (1.02 trit @ $6.66) + (0.41 pye @ $10.67) + (1.02 iso @ $116.65) = a per m3 price for omber of $130.15 - if all other hi sec minerals provided 20m isk/hr then mining omber would only yield 13m isk/hr.
Now that fruityness with omber could either be seen as the exception that proves the rule or it could be seen as fundamentally breaking the whole approach. However the prices obtained, and the omber disparity shown, don't look entirely unfamiliar to us. We're making very dangerous assumptions in kind of ignoring the effects of demand and oversupply, or rather assuming that demand in the mineral basket is balanced just as the blend of minerals found in hi sec ore is. Very dangerous assumptions indeed.
Anyway, ran the figures a few times more with varying estimated isk/hr figures:
If hi-sec mining provides 20m isk/hr, with all hi-sec ores reaching equilibrium at roughly the same m3 value: Tritanium: -ú6.66 Pyerite: -ú10.67 Mexallon: -ú62.95 Nocxium: -ú562.59 Isogen: -ú116.65 (omber ends up making 13.02m isk/hr)
If hi-sec mining provides 25m isk/hr, with all hi-sec ores reaching equilibrium at roughly the same m3 value: Tritanium: -ú8.33 Pyerite: -ú13.34 Mexallon: -ú78.69 Nocxium: -ú703.24 Isogen: -ú145.82 (omber ends up making 16.27m isk/hr)
If hi-sec mining provides 30m isk/hr, with all hi-sec ores reaching equilibrium at roughly the same m3 value: Tritanium: -ú9.99 Pyerite: -ú16.01 Mexallon: -ú94.43 Nocxium: -ú843.89 Isogen: -ú174.98 (omber ends up making 19.52m isk/hr)
If hi-sec mining provides 35m isk/hr, with all hi-sec ores reaching equilibrium at roughly the same m3 value: Tritanium: -ú11.66 Pyerite: -ú18.68 Mexallon: -ú110.16 Nocxium: -ú984.53 Isogen: -ú204.14 (omber ends up making 22.78m isk/hr)
Increasingly fruity figures I'm sure you'll agree, and running the very dangerous risk of ignoring strong upward pressure on nocx, potential oversupply of trit/pye and poor demand for iso. But let me put it this way - you currently make about 25% more isk mining pyrox than you do veld. I personally can't see that gap widening. The strong upward pressure on nocx simply must have an effect on other hi sec minerals. |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
69
|
Posted - 2012.04.26 11:01:00 -
[22] - Quote
Tekota wrote: GǪ I figured out something incredibly clever. GǪ decouple supply and, particularly demand, effects from hi sec mineral pricing and work on a basis that all hi sec ores eventually find an equilibrium in isk/hr GǪ
I published this several years ago.
Tekota wrote: So with that said, we need to start guestimating a figure for isk/hr achievable for hi sec mining
Again, I publish this several years ago. No need to guess. It is fairly easy to figure out the correlation between minerals in equilibrium.
For instance, at equilibrium the Price_ of_Pyerite = Price_ of_Tritanium * 667 / 416
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
264
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Posted - 2012.04.26 11:20:00 -
[23] - Quote
You're several years older than me :o)
Can I ask how you resolve the "omber problem" (or whatever the red headed stepchild ore of a time is)? Can this simply be put down to the safety valve effect - ie. demands are driven by changing mineral weights of desired goods and one ore must always float free to accomodate changing FOTM - coupled with the variance in equilibrium (ie we never see perfect equilibrium)? |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
69
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Posted - 2012.04.26 11:29:00 -
[24] - Quote
I didn't want to derail your post, so I started a new one about Equilibrium Mineral Prices
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VaMei
Meafi Corp
146
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Posted - 2012.04.26 12:17:00 -
[25] - Quote
Interesting. If Block's right, I might as well pony up the cash today unless trit heads for the moon or the market hasn't settled out.
Time will tell. |
Lauren Hellfury
Full Pocket Aggro In Vitro.
328
|
Posted - 2012.04.26 17:50:00 -
[26] - Quote
just a quick point of order...... I can screw the market on the 24th right? Right!? Help rid New Eden of T2 BPOs:-áhttps://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=62797 The Full Pocket Aggro blog:-á http://fullpocketaggro.blogspot.com/ Now showing: The incursion situation |
Esan Vartesa
Samarkand Financial
220
|
Posted - 2012.04.26 21:50:00 -
[27] - Quote
Lauren Hellfury wrote:just a quick point of order...... I can screw the market on the 24th right? Right!?
My thought exactly.
Too easy to skew the average price for the day. Only have to target the closest mineral that's on the wrong side of April 24th's prices.
Then again 50m is hardly worth the effort. You'd need a communal effort by all 10 participants to make it worthwhile.
So....
...for 30% of the winnings from each of you, I will perform this service if needed. |
VaMei
Meafi Corp
169
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Posted - 2012.06.05 17:05:00 -
[28] - Quote
Keeping the locks off till the bet settles... |
Tekota
The Freighter Factory
288
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Posted - 2012.06.13 07:29:00 -
[29] - Quote
Thanks VaMei - had forgotten about the locks :o)
Ok, I've got to go into hospital in a couple of hours for what is slated to be a "two-three weeks" stay so this morning I paid out bet winnings to all takers on the assumption that mineral prices in eleven days time are unlikely to change much from their present values. If this should prove otherwise on the 24th you're all on your honour to forward my winnings :o)
So, final analysis: I was correct on nocxium prices, I was correct on pyerite prices, I was wrong on isogen prices. A 66% hit rate that puts me exactly 16% more precognisant than a blindfolded monkey randomly pressing buy/sell buttons and surely marks me as a modern day Nostradamus. You should probably all bow down lest I unleash my devastating psychic powers :o)
Yeah yeah all right, I was wrong :o)
And I refute any suggestion that my forthcoming operation is a last ditch attempt to surgically insert a sense of modesty. |
Bath Sheeba
Another Success Story
48
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Posted - 2012.06.20 17:49:00 -
[30] - Quote
Confirmed receipt of the cash, thanks.
Will remit payment if sudden swing occurs. |
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