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Terrorfrodo
Deep Space Darwinian Law Enforcement Agency
65
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Posted - 2012.05.02 12:00:00 -
[1] - Quote
A C2 I live in recently had a period of complete stasis: For about a week, not a single incoming wormhole appeared. I had scanned but not opened the statics because I was barely active during that time, so they remained in place the whole time.
Then over the last weekend, I had no less than 12 wormholes in 24 hours. Never more than 7 at the same time of course, but almost as soon as one closed another one was opened.
In the past I saw similar "clustering" of wh spawns. Now this could well be mere coincidence and probably is. Or not. Maybe a system that hasn't had any connections for some time is picked as a "hub" and goes into a special pool for systems that are in need of action and then become preferred targets of newly opened outgoing holes.
Discuss. Winner of elections banned, runner-up demoted by rest of the body, the council controlled by the losers. CSM 7 is illegitimate, CCP should remember when dealing with them. Remember what players voted for. |
Rek Seven
Probe Patrol Project Wildfire
301
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Posted - 2012.05.02 12:15:00 -
[2] - Quote
So you're saying that these wormholes were not K162's on your side? |
Terrorfrodo
Deep Space Darwinian Law Enforcement Agency
65
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Posted - 2012.05.02 12:18:00 -
[3] - Quote
No, quite the opposite. Most of them were. Winner of elections banned, runner-up demoted by rest of the body, the council controlled by the losers. CSM 7 is illegitimate, CCP should remember when dealing with them. Remember what players voted for. |
Omu Matol
Repo.
10
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Posted - 2012.05.02 13:53:00 -
[4] - Quote
The last several weekends have been incredibly busy for my wormhole. This last weekend was no different. I think it's caused by several factors. More people coming into wormholes, and more people playing on the weekends. |
illy velo
Production N Destruction INC. The Last Chancers.
24
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Posted - 2012.05.02 16:02:00 -
[5] - Quote
I don't think it is any stretch to conclude that wormhole spawn rates increase with player activity / weekend play. As you noted, K162's don't appear until scanned down and warped to. What this means is that one side is there waiting to be scanned and warped to but if this is not done, the K162 on the other side never exists at all.
Sorry if I am being captain obvious here.
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Terrorfrodo
Deep Space Darwinian Law Enforcement Agency
65
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Posted - 2012.05.02 16:39:00 -
[6] - Quote
Sure, activity determines the number of opened wormholes in the game. That is indeed obvious because it's a direct consequence of well-known wormhole mechanics.
What is not so obvious and (afaik) still unknown is exactly how the target system for a newly opened wormhole is selected. When I scan down and warp to my static C2, it will lead me to one of the other 524 C2s in the game. But is the destination system really totally random, so I have a 1 in 524 chance to get some specific C2? Or does it work differently, with eligible systems sorted or pooled in some way?
It would actually make sense to implement it like this. If the system created temporary hubs with many incoming holes, this increases the probability of players meeting and shooting each other. Winner of elections banned, runner-up demoted by rest of the body, the council controlled by the losers. CSM 7 is illegitimate, CCP should remember when dealing with them. Remember what players voted for. |
Svodola Darkfury
Born-2-Kill Northern Coalition.
28
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Posted - 2012.05.02 17:33:00 -
[7] - Quote
Terrorfrodo wrote:Sure, activity determines the number of opened wormholes in the game. That is indeed obvious because it's a direct consequence of well-known wormhole mechanics.
What is not so obvious and (afaik) still unknown is exactly how the target system for a newly opened wormhole is selected. When I scan down and warp to my static C2, it will lead me to one of the other 524 C2s in the game. But is the destination system really totally random, so I have a 1 in 524 chance to get some specific C2? Or does it work differently, with eligible systems sorted or pooled in some way?
It would actually make sense to implement it like this. If the system created temporary hubs with many incoming holes, this increases the probability of players meeting and shooting each other.
As near as I can tell it's unusual to not have another wormhole static into or have a random wormhole within a 2 day period.
In my experience I can go into MOST C2s and find a non-static wormhole connecting into them or going out from them. One thing I HAVE noticed is that wormholes that have been untouched for some time (a few days, months) will start sending out "help me" wormholes. I recently discovered a C3 null-sec static wormhole that had the following generated from ITS side: C2, C3, C5, C6, and the static null. All of these were non-k162s, generating from this system that hadn't had any activity in 2 weeks and hadn't been completely cleared in months. It also had no residents. Therefore the whole idea behind "K162s don't exist until they're scanned" doesn't really resonate with me, because I don't think somebody came in from Null, mapped out that entire C3 wormhole, and then left without killing a single sleeper. |
Scoto Timta
EveMerc's
10
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Posted - 2012.05.02 19:23:00 -
[8] - Quote
Svodola Darkfury wrote:Therefore the whole idea behind "K162s don't exist until they're scanned" doesn't really resonate with me, because I don't think somebody came in from Null, mapped out that entire C3 wormhole, and then left without killing a single sleeper.
You seem to be misunderstanding the process to which you are referring. The mechanic is not that the K162 doesn't exist until it or the named side is *scanned*. The K162 does not exist (and therefore could not possibly be scanned) until the named side is *activated* (by someone initiating warp to it). Once that happens, the K162 is created and can be found (but does not have to be), and the timer (16/24 hours) on the connection is started.
The named side (all of those non-k162 wormholes you mentioned) can stay there for weeks (indefinitely?) without ever being activated. Scanning it down, even to 100%, does not activate it. Only warping (or starting warp) to it. That system probably had visitors, but they didn't feel like scanning everything down. Or they scanned, but when they saw 5 wormholes, they decided it wasn't worth the risk to run sites. In any case, they never warped to those wh, so they accumulated just like sites do.
Anecdotal story: I once had a scan alt camping solo in an empty wh that had static HS exit. The exit wh was scannable (and I had scanned it to 100% and bookmarked it from scanner window) for almost 2 weeks (never moved) before I finally had an incoming K162 wh spawn and people come in to use the system as a path to hs. The exit to hs turned out to be about 3 jumps from Amarr, and the system became very active that day with a lot of peeps from hs popping in to take a look, run sites, etc. That K162 in highsec obviously was not there until the guys from my k162 activated the hs exit.
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Svodola Darkfury
Born-2-Kill Northern Coalition.
28
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Posted - 2012.05.02 21:09:00 -
[9] - Quote
Aside from random wormholes spawning into these wormholes from k-space, how exactly would we get into wormholes?
The amount of time it would have taken to get into wormholes waiting for RANDOM wormholes to appear to take us into WH space makes this seem really unlikely.
If you can point me to a dev that said "yeah K162s don't exist until the opposite side has been found" then go for it. Until then I'm just not ready to buy into that concept. Anecdotal evidence of "my wormhole was around in the same spot forever" would suggest that in a C4 you could potentially collapse ALL incoming wormholes that weren't your static indefinitely, being nearly completely safe. Also seems unlikely.
Svo. |
Omir Kajil
Nephite Tribe Zero Hour Alliance
100
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Posted - 2012.05.02 21:49:00 -
[10] - Quote
EDIT:
Not enough CPU to prevent derplicate post. |
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Omir Kajil
Nephite Tribe Zero Hour Alliance
100
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Posted - 2012.05.02 21:51:00 -
[11] - Quote
Regardless of whether or not the K162's "exist" before anyone warps to it from the OTHER side... It seems unlikely that anyone, even a large corp, could guarantee safety by collapsing any new wormholes as soon as they appeared.
Provided that it's true, that a K162 doesn't appear until "activated" from the other side, then that means any K162's that appear have already been warped to on the other side the moment your probes can even see it. It would only take a few more seconds for a scannin ship to jump through that wormhole into your system, cloak, and warp off somewhere. At which point, there's not really anything stopping the scout from probing down the non-activated static and warping to it himself.
I'm just curious, I don't have a lot of wh experience, but is there any way to tell if someone has activated a wormhole in your system?
In any case, seems like a LOT of work and vigilence would have to go into keeping a home c4 system 'safe', assuming such a thing is possible. I'm just thinking out loud hear, those of you more experienced wormholers feel free to criticize or refine these thoughts. :P |
Terrorfrodo
Deep Space Darwinian Law Enforcement Agency
65
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Posted - 2012.05.02 21:56:00 -
[12] - Quote
I'm amazed there's still people arguing about the K162 thing... that discussion was settled about a year and a half ago among serious wormhole residents. The thread was not supposed to be about this stale stuff :p
But... the more ignorant people are, the better Winner of elections banned, runner-up demoted by rest of the body, the council controlled by the losers. CSM 7 is illegitimate, CCP should remember when dealing with them. Remember what players voted for. |
illy velo
Production N Destruction INC. The Last Chancers.
24
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Posted - 2012.05.02 22:48:00 -
[13] - Quote
Svodola Darkfury wrote:If you can point me to a dev that said "yeah K162s don't exist until the opposite side has been found" then go for it.
You are not going to get a DEV saying anything about wormholes. The mass limits seemed to have started randomly changing a bit since the last patch and they will neither confirm or deny it. Anyway, it has been pretty much established that the K162 destination will not exist until warped to at the source. Wormhole corps of all sizes and classes of J-System live and die by this rule and use it to be "mostly safe" all the time. Terrorfrodo is right, I don't even know why we are discussing this. You have have already been given examples of WH signatures staying in the same place for several weeks. If the destination had existed, someone in that time period would have jumped in and started the timer. The fact that it never happened should be enough to validate this game mechanic.
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Frau Leinsmarch
Merchants Trade Consortium The Last Chancers.
29
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Posted - 2012.05.03 00:44:00 -
[14] - Quote
Our corp was able to test these wormhole mechanics a few weeks ago. We found a system with a static C3, right before downtime. We closed the wormhole just before the servers went down. Obviously when the servers came back up the signature ID for the new static was a pre-downtime sig. We scanned down the new static and jumped through, observing that the signature on the other side of the wormhole was a post downtime one.
This ment that although the signature existed in the C2 before downtime, it did not exist in the C3. Thus when we scanned it down/warped to it, it was spawned in the C3 as a K162 wormhole. |
Svodola Darkfury
Born-2-Kill Northern Coalition.
28
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Posted - 2012.05.03 00:53:00 -
[15] - Quote
illy velo wrote:Svodola Darkfury wrote:If you can point me to a dev that said "yeah K162s don't exist until the opposite side has been found" then go for it.
You are not going to get a DEV saying anything about wormholes. The mass limits seemed to have started randomly changing a bit since the last patch and they will neither confirm or deny it. Anyway, it has been pretty much established that the K162 destination will not exist until warped to at the source. Wormhole corps of all sizes and classes of J-System live and die by this rule and use it to be "mostly safe" all the time. Terrorfrodo is right, I don't even know why we are discussing this. You have have already been given examples of WH signatures staying in the same place for several weeks. If the destination had existed, someone in that time period would have jumped in and started the timer. The fact that it never happened should be enough to validate this game mechanic.
Okay point me to somebody that has done any sort of testing on this. I'm not understanding how you could possibly test that the K162 is not spawned in some ass-end nowhere system that nobody is scanning from. If your high sec static is spawned out in solitude where nobody is bothering to check out the WHs it's quite possible that the TIMER could never be established on either end. I don't know; if it IS that way it's kind of an ass backwards way to do things; the only information I can find about it on the net is a bunch of wiki stuff where people just say it's that way, but they offer no proof or references.
The only thing on evelopedia is the following:
"K162 is the identification for a Generic Exit; the endpoint for a wormhole that spawned somewhere else. It has all the charateristics of the wormhole that started on the other end. The information dialog will provide you with some additional information, such as the origin of this wormhole."
No idea who wrote it be it player, troll or employee. But that's the understanding I have of K162s and it makes perfect sense to me.
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Frau Leinsmarch
Merchants Trade Consortium The Last Chancers.
29
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Posted - 2012.05.03 01:05:00 -
[16] - Quote
Svodola Darkfury wrote:illy velo wrote:Svodola Darkfury wrote:If you can point me to a dev that said "yeah K162s don't exist until the opposite side has been found" then go for it.
You are not going to get a DEV saying anything about wormholes. The mass limits seemed to have started randomly changing a bit since the last patch and they will neither confirm or deny it. Anyway, it has been pretty much established that the K162 destination will not exist until warped to at the source. Wormhole corps of all sizes and classes of J-System live and die by this rule and use it to be "mostly safe" all the time. Terrorfrodo is right, I don't even know why we are discussing this. You have have already been given examples of WH signatures staying in the same place for several weeks. If the destination had existed, someone in that time period would have jumped in and started the timer. The fact that it never happened should be enough to validate this game mechanic. Okay point me to somebody that has done any sort of testing on this. I'm not understanding how you could possibly test that the K162 is not spawned in some ass-end nowhere system that nobody is scanning from. If your high sec static is spawned out in solitude where nobody is bothering to check out the WHs it's quite possible that the TIMER could never be established on either end. I don't know; if it IS that way it's kind of an ass backwards way to do things; the only information I can find about it on the net is a bunch of wiki stuff where people just say it's that way, but they offer no proof or references. The only thing on evelopedia is the following: "K162 is the identification for a Generic Exit; the endpoint for a wormhole that spawned somewhere else. It has all the charateristics of the wormhole that started on the other end. The information dialog will provide you with some additional information, such as the origin of this wormhole." No idea who wrote it be it player, troll or employee. But that's the understanding I have of K162s and it makes perfect sense to me.
er... read post above :O
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Trinkets friend
Sudden Buggery
337
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Posted - 2012.05.03 03:37:00 -
[17] - Quote
Ahh the good old Schrodingers Wormhole theorem at it again.
I was on the side of "it must exist" but that there was an observation bias at work. eg; it is impossible to prove (even with jump logging) that wormhole K162 conections are not spawned because the act of observing them spawns them, and hence destroys the integrity of the test (ie; cat is let out of box).
This is of course further confounded by the problem that you will get K162's entering your system, which you can scan down, and often you will find K162's into systems where there were no jumps within 1 week and no obviously active residents. But of course, maybe someone is sitting in there cloaked and logged on, warped to the exit and decided not to jump through, leaving no evidence to prove or disprove.
This was the classic conundrum of bears defecating in woods. It was an impossible hypothesis.
However, it seems PL reputedly trains for Alliance Tournaments in deep wormhole space on SiSi (or so the rumours go) and in order for them to actually get into a deep system (C6 etc) to faff about, they needed to petition the devs on SiSi to be moved into the appropriate C6 system because no one is there to spawn the wormholes which would otherwise set up a chain.
Until this evidence was presented, I doubted the mechanic existed and thought the proponents of Schrodingers Wormhole theory were just daft unscientific mouthbreathers with a broken logic gland. I am convinced they are, in fact, daft mouthbreathers with a broken logic gland, but I will concede they formed a theory from observations, but lacked the tools to prove it in a definitive manner.
So. QED, if you don't warp to your static, the other end of it doesn't exist. Discussion over. The skilful employer of men will employ the wise man, the brave man, the covetous man, and the stupid man. Sun Tzu localectomy.blogspot.com.au
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Scoto Timta
EveMerc's
10
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Posted - 2012.05.03 16:16:00 -
[18] - Quote
Svodola Darkfury wrote:Aside from random wormholes spawning into these wormholes from k-space, how exactly would we get into wormholes?
The amount of time it would have taken to get into wormholes waiting for RANDOM wormholes to appear to take us into WH space makes this seem really unlikely.
If you can point me to a dev that said "yeah K162s don't exist until the opposite side has been found" then go for it. Until then I'm just not ready to buy into that concept. Anecdotal evidence of "my wormhole was around in the same spot forever" would suggest that in a C4 you could potentially collapse ALL incoming wormholes that weren't your static indefinitely, being nearly completely safe. Also seems unlikely.
Svo. sigh.... Been discussed over and over and over and .... But I'll feed one more post to the beast.
There is speculation (unproven, purely guessing) that when CCP added wh to the game, they "opened" a lot of connections into higher class wormholes via some manual mechanic for the first n days to get the ball rolling. Whether that is true or not, explorers would have very quickly found their way into a lot of high end systems via chains of connection. For example HS to a C2 (via random R943). Then that C2 could have static C5. That C5 could have static C6. (All of those statics exist.) In a matter of 30 minutes (or a lot less), a scanner could end up in C6 from highsec. You DO understand statics, right? Your post would lead one to believe that you don't.
Trinket's right about it being a nearly unprovable theory. The closest tests we can do are the ones like Frau related or the story I related about my wh being quiet for nearly 2 weeks. That K162 wasn't out in "some ass-end nowhere system that nobody is scanning from". It was in a very busy system about 3 jumps from Amarr. As soon as the guys came into my C2 from the C4 (or whatever it was) and opened my hs static, lots of people scanned down that K162 from the hs side.
And nope... Can't point you to a definitive dev post. So you can accept the behavior seen by those of us who have dealt with it for years, or you can be one of those people that Terrorfrodo mentioned. And as for collapsing incoming holes to be "safe"... yep. We do that to all holes (static, random, k162). Or wait for them to go away. Depends on how lazy we are and how dangerous the other side is relative to us and what we want to do that day. If someone wants to mine or do other stuff in relative safety, then we can use our understanding of that mechanic to our advantage. Has never failed us when properly applied.
Omir Kajil wrote:I'm just curious, I don't have a lot of wh experience, but is there any way to tell if someone has activated a wormhole in your system? There is no way to tell from the scanner if a wh is activated/open (or whatever term you prefer). If you (initiate) warp to it, it's open. Even if it is your static and you know that you have had no K162 for a while and that none of your group has opened it, you might have a camper that scanned/opened it while you were offline or not paying attention. Otherwise, it's largely a process of elimination to make an educated guess about the status.
For example, if you have a single static and it closes (time or mass), a new one spawns. That one is closed (for now) with no k162. If you see no other wh sigs, then you are safe (unless you have a camper). You can watch for a new wh and until one shows up, you have an isolated system. But when a new wh sig shows up, it might be a k162 (most of the time) which is open, or it may be a random outgoing (also closed with no k162 side).
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Sola Mercury
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
14
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Posted - 2012.05.04 08:27:00 -
[19] - Quote
Humans like to see patterns in random generated events. A sequence of events that sugests a pattern at work is given a greater importance than a sequence with no anomality.
Thus, while working with small numbers of events, you'l need to see more than just some strange events, to deny this all is just random. |
Terrorfrodo
Deep Space Darwinian Law Enforcement Agency
65
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Posted - 2012.05.04 08:35:00 -
[20] - Quote
Sola Mercury wrote:Humans like to see patterns in random generated events. A sequence of events that sugests a pattern at work is given a greater importance than a sequence with no anomality.
Thus, while working with small numbers of events, you'l need to see more than just some strange events, to deny this all is just random. Only that the experience of thousands of players over about a thousand days since the advent of w-space is not a small number of events. Winner of elections banned, runner-up demoted by rest of the body, the council controlled by the losers. CSM 7 is illegitimate, CCP should remember when dealing with them. Remember what players voted for. |
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Annette Aumer
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
3
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Posted - 2012.05.04 08:44:00 -
[21] - Quote
This Forum thread is brilliant. That is all. |
Jimmacamus Diem
Reconfiguration Nation Transmission Lost
8
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Posted - 2012.05.05 04:41:00 -
[22] - Quote
Edited out due to corrections |
Sandslinger
NorCorp Enterprise No Holes Barred
7
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Posted - 2012.05.07 08:37:00 -
[23] - Quote
Edited.... Why feed the dumb |
Giorgos Rbs
Surfers of the Apocalypse Intergalactic Crap Coalition
0
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Posted - 2012.05.07 20:20:00 -
[24] - Quote
Frau Leinsmarch wrote:Our corp was able to test these wormhole mechanics a few weeks ago. We found a system with a static C3, right before downtime. We closed the wormhole just before the servers went down. Obviously when the servers came back up the signature ID for the new static was a pre-downtime sig. We scanned down the new static and jumped through, observing that the signature on the other side of the wormhole was a post downtime one.
This ment that although the signature existed in the C2 before downtime, it did not exist in the C3. Thus when we scanned it down/warped to it, it was spawned in the C3 as a K162 wormhole.
There is a chance the system you entered was not yet "loaded" cause noone else had jumped in or logged on inside the system. So your warping to your fresh static caused the system on the other side to load, and cause of that the K162 you generated had a sig name as if it was there before DT (all sigs got named the moment you made the k162 to appear)
Just speculating in my explanation, but since i "know" how the K162 appearance mechanic works i had to find a (probably) valid explanation for both the mechanic and your experiment to be ok
-gio |
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