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Tasko Pal
THE IRIS United Freemen Alliance
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Posted - 2009.04.20 20:36:00 -
[1]
I was buying a few PLEXes (30 day game extensions) to extend my account and saw some spread so I decided to trade a few for a bit of profit. The PLEX market in Jita has been remarkably stable following the pump and dump three months ago. From early February till now, it has stayed within 300-330 million isk range. When you add in the high volume, this seems a nice market making opportunity for low transaction cost traders.
Certainly, it looks like I was wrong (in statements I made back in January) about the cost of PLEXes going up. I don't know yet if this is because of the influx of new players following Apocrypha (resulting in increased supply of PLEXes) or because the PLEX market is naturally this stable.
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2009.04.20 21:30:00 -
[2]
It's ever since CCP started selling ETC's directly, cutting out the "man in the middle" so to speak. Their increased accessability means more people will enter the market.
Specifically, people like me who aren't comfortable with someone calling me up and asking details about me, my local area etc. as a security measure to prevent fraud.
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.04.20 23:29:00 -
[3]
To qoute myself...
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=981319&page=2&sid=530157214
Originally by: Iridescent Moon
Already there.
GTC prices this weekend are the lowest in the past 4 weeks. Peak price was 2 weeks ago.
PLEX sell orders in Jita are NOT selling. Buy orders are being filled by people converting GTC to PLEX and selling to speculators. Consumers are buying GTC's and not PLEXs. Removal of ghost training removes the value of a 30 payment method, more so since you can not activate an account with a PLEX.
700 Million seems to be the flinch point for GTC consumers with a "reasonable" price being a few 10's of millions below that amount.
The bubble HAS burst. We are just in the calm before the storm when all the PLEX speculators panic and begin to sell to save their butts.
The PLEX spike at the beginning of the year was do purely to speculation and not demand. The bubble had burst before CCP announced that they wee selling PLEX's directly. CCP selling PLEX's has pushed PLEX down a bit and kept the price from heading back up.
I was right in what I was saying then without regards to CCP's position. Although I did expect a slight price increase around m10 and that really did not happen.
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Rapt Industries
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Posted - 2009.04.20 23:39:00 -
[4]
700m? I'm going to have to disagree with you. I've never bought a GTC over 600m and absolutely would not when there are numerous GTC's for sale every day in the 580-600m range. Patience really pays off, and getting a GTC for 580m smokes a 320m PLEX market price. The reality is with how easy it is to obtain a sub 600m GTC why would anyone buy a PLEX on the market that costs more than 300m?
700m is insane.
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company
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Posted - 2009.04.20 23:55:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Rapt Industries 700m? I'm going to have to disagree with you. I've never bought a GTC over 600m and absolutely would not when there are numerous GTC's for sale every day in the 580-600m range. Patience really pays off, and getting a GTC for 580m smokes a 320m PLEX market price. The reality is with how easy it is to obtain a sub 600m GTC why would anyone buy a PLEX on the market that costs more than 300m?
700m is insane.
The statement wasn't that 700m is normal now, the statement was that it was a breaking point. 3 months ago there were regular sales for 650-700, hundreds even, every day in Other and on the forums. But the large-scale selling didn't go too far beyond this point before it started scaling back down. So this is just a prediction of the current pain threshold for the bulk of EVE players, or the threshold that the market will currently support.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.04.23 14:15:00 -
[6]
This may be a bit of a stretch, but I'll go out on a limb and say that I connect the somewhat lower PLEX prices to a decline in macro-isk-farming that I've seen in the ice market. Since Apocrypha was released, the ice fields I've seen have been nearly devoid of obvious macro miners. (And I'm interested in this because of the subsequent rise in prices for ice and ice products.)
If this observation is correct and there are fewer macros out there mining for RMT, then it would seem that people looking to buy isk would turn more to the legit channels of PLEXs and GTCs.
So the obvious question is what did CCP do to stop the macro-isk-farmers and will they be back. I've long contended that if CCP really wanted to stop large scale macro-mining operations they could easily identify them, ban the accounts, etc. and put them out of business. But as long as those macro-miners were paying customers, CCP didn't have the incentive crack down on it. Now that CCP has their own little isk business up and running, they have no reason not to go after the competition.
So if I'm correct, prices for isotopes and trit should stay high, while PLEX's should stay closer to the low end of their trading range, probably 300-320M. Remember the demand for PLEX's and GTCs for end use is probably fairly constant. People who pay for their accounts with isk will continue to do so indefinitely no matter what the price is. The big variable factor is supply, players who buy isk through GTC's and PLEX's. As long as there are newer players who need isk to get started in the game or dumb players who lose more isk than they can make, PLEX prices will stay fairly low. But if Eve ever loses its appeal to the young and stupid, then there will just be us rich old farts looking to buy PLEX's and no one willing to sell them to us.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.04.26 11:29:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Iridescent Moon I was right in what I was saying then without regards to CCP's position. Although I did expect a slight price increase around m10 and that really did not happen.
I expected a price decrease, but the fact that you couldn't get the free ship without using game time, and the rather limited global availability of the box (Atari have told me here they are no longer distributing the game - it never arrived in the country). Meant that the box set was much less successful than I imagined.
Quote: If this observation is correct and there are fewer macros out there mining for RMT, then it would seem that people looking to buy isk would turn more to the legit channels of PLEXs and GTCs.
One of the largest markets for PLEX's and GTCs is the macroers themselves, who don't pay real money when isk for them is free, and thus they don't risk losing anything when they're banned. I saw in the GTC forum one guy once buying GTCs for over 500 accounts.....
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.04.27 03:03:00 -
[8]
The PLEX volumes have been steadily rising since January as well. It's unclear to me whether this means a larger supply (and demand) or more people margin trading PLEXes. One thing's for sure -- with more volume it's a lot harder to incite the herd into a panic stampede.
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Midas Man
Caldari Dzark Innovations
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Posted - 2009.04.28 15:47:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Clair Bear The PLEX volumes have been steadily rising since January as well. It's unclear to me whether this means a larger supply (and demand) or more people margin trading PLEXes. One thing's for sure -- with more volume it's a lot harder to incite the herd into a panic stampede.
I think the steady increase in volume is a reflection of the decrease volume going through the time code forum. People will pay an extra 50mil for their game time if they can get it now, and so posting wtb or waiting for a good wts is too much effort compared to buying now off the market. More buyers move to buying in game, and sellers realise they can get more for 2*30 day plex in game without the forum hoaring.
There is a lot of volume coming from reselling, I can usually flip 10-20 or so a day and im not alone. Although I dont have much to go on I beleive the extra volumes ingame is more to do with people abandoning the old inefficient forum method. I would imagine any extra volume from reselling needs to be matched by a similar increased demand otherwise none of the resellers would be making a sale and would quick move money elsewhere and we would see reducing prices.
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