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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.06 14:45:00 -
[1]
Just doing a bit of mental calisthenics this morning. If the theory of market John Doe existence is a sound one (and there certainly seems to be rising evidence over the past two weeks) then what effects would we see on game time pricing?
One factor is John Doe operators not needing to fund accounts. Even rudimentary market skills can yield fantastic results with an automated .01 ISK strategy. There's no need to train a mission John Doe or mining John Doe to reap the rewards. End result: less game time demand, nearly zero impact due to banned accounts.
Another factor is cheaper ISK bought with RL funds. The amount of ISK generated by a market John Doe should be significantly higher than a large number of mining or courier mission John Does. This should increase competition -- and indeed I've seen a vastly increased amount of ISK spams lately.
Overall I think the impact of smaller game time demand is more than offset by a sudden firehose of ISK from automating Jita. A quick peek at the PLEX pricing graph over the last 3 months does seem to show an upward trend starting at about the same time as the recent John Doe reports.
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Dzil
Caldari Second Quadrant Ice Division
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Posted - 2009.05.06 14:52:00 -
[2]
There is a potential for them to squeeze out more profits, yes. Just like a John Doe focused on mining or a John Doe focused on missioning could potentially earn enough isk to permanently finance their accounts through GTC/PLEX.
Interestingly enough, the market is the only place where John Doe is actively engaging in a form of PVP. This has lots of repricussions: his activities may actually harm other players, but at the same time, he is far more exposed to counterattack. When John Doe goes mining, the worst you can do to him is suicide gank his ship. When John Doe goes missioning, same story - you might be able to train him early EQ style, but with strong enough tank there's just not much you can do short of a suicide attack. In the market, you can manipulate that market, and hope to outsmart John Doe.
I'm surprised that more EVE players don't welcome John into the market, to be honest. It's their first chance to take revenge on the guy, but instead they insist on penny isk dancing with him.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.06 15:24:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Dzil
I'm surprised that more EVE players don't welcome John into the market, to be honest. It's their first chance to take revenge on the guy, but instead they insist on penny isk dancing with him.
Not quite true. If you fly to Ingunn you'll see plenty of John Does in haulers you can shoot. Sometimes you even get a Raven spawn if you chain enough of them.
But just like trial-based market John Does it doesn't affect the outcome in any material way.
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EVEHelpisSeriousBusiness
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Posted - 2009.05.06 20:05:00 -
[4]
ITT: Clair Bear gets you to lemming up the price of PLEX and then sells into your orders. Discuss.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.06 21:55:00 -
[5]
The trend is your friend. Those who bandwagoned with me last time made mad bank.
That said, I have nearly no PLEX inventory. And if I did I wouldn't be getting out after a paltry 7% run-up. I'd be shooting for at least 20-30%.
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Jinx Barker
Caldari GFB Scientific
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Posted - 2009.05.06 23:03:00 -
[6]
Why is everyone calls em John Doe. I would call em John Henry - like the robot dude in Terminator. Since, there are so many similarities...
::::Click The Signature For the Blog::::
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glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.05.06 23:35:00 -
[7]
I suppose as long as you are calling them johns, I will be able to follow the conversation.
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EVEHelpisSeriousBusiness
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Posted - 2009.05.07 03:16:00 -
[8]
Originally by: glas mir I suppose as long as you are calling them johns, I will be able to follow the conversation.
These Johns keep slapping me around, they're taking too much of my time and ruining my margins.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.07 03:18:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Clair Bear The trend is your friend. Those who bandwagoned with me last time made mad bank.
That said, I have nearly no PLEX inventory. And if I did I wouldn't be getting out after a paltry 7% run-up. I'd be shooting for at least 20-30%.
It really was an amazing run, spurred on by nothing more than speculation.
When the floor fell out though, it fell pretty damn hard. |
Weight What
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Posted - 2009.05.07 12:14:00 -
[10]
Bots bots bots ahoy, bots bots bots in EVE, no matter how you dress them up.
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Annonymous, trading as "Weight What". |
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Komatose
Caldari White Wolf Industries
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Posted - 2009.05.08 18:52:00 -
[11]
Originally by: EVEHel****eriousBusiness
Originally by: glas mir I suppose as long as you are calling them johns, I will be able to follow the conversation.
These Johns keep slapping me around, they're taking too much of my time and ruining my margins.
I approve of prostatution.
These johns need to keep their pimp hand strong...for the oldest profession..that and farming.
Funny enough, they both use ho's.
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Ayami Sakura
Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2009.05.08 20:01:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Jinx Barker Why is everyone calls em John Doe. I would call em John Henry - like the robot dude in Terminator. Since, there are so many similarities...
Really? I'd call them Marvin, because even an AI would eventually get depressed and suicidal playing the Jita 0.01 isk game.
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g0ggalor
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Posted - 2009.05.08 21:44:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Ayami Sakura
Originally by: Jinx Barker Why is everyone calls em John Doe. I would call em John Henry - like the robot dude in Terminator. Since, there are so many similarities...
Really? I'd call them Marvin, because even an AI would eventually get depressed and suicidal playing the Jita 0.01 isk game.
lmao
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Ryoko Yoshida
Amarr
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Posted - 2009.05.09 00:15:00 -
[14]
OAC - Our Automated Competitors.
Spread the word! -------------------- This is where my sig is meant to begin... |
Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.05.09 11:11:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Dzil Just like a John Doe focused on mining or a John Doe focused on missioning could potentially earn enough isk to permanently finance their accounts through GTC/PLEX.
This is the more important bit, IMHO. It's not John Does trying to squeeze the market, it's that all of the tens-of-thousands of John Doe accounts out there are funded entirely in ISK. You can either "sell" 600mil ISK to get a $30 GTC, or you can sell billions of ISK on the black market for $30. The former is a far cheaper way to get $30 of value (even if it's limited in scale) and that's why all the John Does are funded in this manner (not to mention this means that no CC data or such relating them to John Doe-centric countries is created).
The impact on GTC/PLEX prices from John Does is not their market manipulation, it's their existence. Wipe out the John Does, and the market would be entirely different - and likely a heavily biased buyer's market at that. ---- FREE Explorer Lead Megalomanic EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
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