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Verx Interis
Amarr SkyNet.
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Posted - 2009.07.10 07:11:00 -
[1]
For some random reason, and out of particularly nowhere, I suddenly started doing a lot worse on invention jobs. When it started didn't coincide with any patch as far as I could tell, it just suddenly happened. And just now, I finished 8 jobs with one success, right after doing 10 jobs with 2 successes.
I have all the related skills at level 4, and I was getting 55-60% success consistently. Then suddenly I had two runs of getting 4-6 successes out of every 20 or so attempts I made. And today I had a total of 28 attempts with 7 successes
Is there any reason to this or am I just having some amazingly crappy luck? ---- Logins required for this post: 102302 |
RaTTuS
BIG Libertas Fidelitas
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Posted - 2009.07.10 07:44:00 -
[2]
it is bursty 28 runs is not anything to be worried about .... see how it goes over a few hundred -- RaTTuS @ InEve, Capital Prints for sale |
Yarinor
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Posted - 2009.07.10 12:14:00 -
[3]
OMG CCP stealth nerfed invention!
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Imrahil Oldblood
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Posted - 2009.07.10 13:05:00 -
[4]
I too had alot of failure in the past few days. I faliled at leat 9 invention in a row, all with good skills, a ship consumed in the invention process and a decryptor giving a 1.1 bonus to invention. Something seems wrong even if 9 is not a sufficient statistic, normally I got around 50-55% success.
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Verx Interis
Amarr SkyNet.
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Posted - 2009.07.10 14:41:00 -
[5]
Originally by: RaTTuS it is bursty 28 runs is not anything to be worried about .... see how it goes over a few hundred
Well it totals out to something like 19 out of the past 68 runs being successful. Which kinda sucks.
Originally by: Yarinor OMG CCP stealth nerfed invention!
Read OP and try again before you fail at flaming ---- Logins required for this post: 760601 |
Enthral
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Posted - 2009.07.10 14:59:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Verx Interis
Originally by: RaTTuS it is bursty 28 runs is not anything to be worried about .... see how it goes over a few hundred
Well it totals out to something like 19 out of the past 68 runs being successful. Which kinda sucks.
Originally by: Yarinor OMG CCP stealth nerfed invention!
Read OP and try again before you fail at flaming
Pffft. This comes up every few weeks. It's random, and you had a streak of bad luck. Simple. Last week for three days I was getting an average of 25% success. This week, I'm getting an average of 75% success. Over two weeks, the average is 50%. That's right in line for my overall average of 51.63% on thousands of jobs. It all evens out.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.07.10 15:37:00 -
[7]
I was gambling at the casino, and doing quite well, but then I started doing badly and lost some money why do you think this is?
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2009.07.10 18:03:00 -
[8]
If I got a nickle every time this pops up AFTER a patch I would have a PILE OF NICKLES!
0/10 for OP
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War Fairy
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Posted - 2009.07.10 19:20:00 -
[9]
Edited by: War Fairy on 10/07/2009 19:20:06
Originally by: Tres Farmer If I got a nickle every time this pops up AFTER a patch I would have a PILE OF NICKLES!
0/10 for OP
If invention was really nerfed everytime someone posted here claiming it was nerfed the chance would be below zero at this point.
You'd require a sleip as input to invent a sleip.
Math is hard. There's nothing wrong with your numbers.
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Volothamp Geddarm
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Posted - 2009.07.10 19:48:00 -
[10]
I've had 2 successes for 25 runs (Basilisk) past few days. I know it will even out eventually, but it doesnt mean i like it!
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Verx Interis
Amarr SkyNet.
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Posted - 2009.07.11 00:03:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Tres Farmer If I got a nickle every time this pops up AFTER a patch I would have a PILE OF NICKLES!
0/10 for OP
Learn to READ OP's before you flame them
Originally by: Verx Interis When it started didn't coincide with any patch as far as I could tell, it just suddenly happened.
---- Logins required for this post: 913395 |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2009.07.11 00:26:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 11/07/2009 00:28:12
Originally by: Verx Interis ...
Learn to read my posts..
If I would get a nickle everytime somebody comes to these boards and claims to have suffered failures after a patch all of a sudden with a sample size below 200+ I would have a pile of nickles.
Get your Math right mate. Learn that 50% success rate in the long run can mean 100 failures in a ROW with a simple RNG for a sample size of 200. Learn that 30 samples isn't near long run.. learn that 200 samples isn't long run.. understand that 1.000 or better 10.000 is long run.
FYI.. after EVERY - and I mean EVERY - patch of TQ somebody comes to these boards and reports that all of a sudden he has failures after failures and this with 30-100 samples.. Surprisingly, there is no further feedback if they would have reached 1000 samples 3-4 weeks later.. I wonder why?!
You guys coming here and using those percentages of success-rates think that these are granted. You USE work done by people WHO KNOW WHAT THEY MEAN. You have no clue, otherwise you would: 1) find enough topics about this by searching the forums 2) do read something about success rates on wikipedia
That's why the people like me who understand what these numbers mean answer with "flames" to your "trolls".
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Kat Bandeis
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.07.11 01:02:00 -
[13]
I haven't seen anything out of the norm...
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Verx Interis
Amarr SkyNet.
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Posted - 2009.07.11 05:40:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Tres Farmer dotdotdot
If all you had to say was that I needed to do more and it would even out, you coulda said that. I've been doing invention for a bit over a month and I had no idea if there was something I missed. All of a sudden I started doing ****ty and I wanted to know if I broke something accedentally cause if this rate continues for too long it'll mess me up bigtime.
Furthermore, you failed to read my post yet again, where I said SPECIFICALLY that I didn't notice any correlation between this and the patch. In fact I started having this ****ty luck a few days BEFORE the patch, so quit acting like I'm saying the last patch broke invention. If all you had to say was "nothing broke, you were just unlucky" then say it, FFS. ---- Logins required for this post: 891947 |
Kat Bandeis
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.07.11 06:15:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Verx Interis
Originally by: Tres Farmer dotdotdot
If all you had to say was that I needed to do more and it would even out, you coulda said that. I've been doing invention for a bit over a month and I had no idea if there was something I missed. All of a sudden I started doing ****ty and I wanted to know if I broke something accedentally cause if this rate continues for too long it'll mess me up bigtime.
OK, seriously, it's random. Look up the percentages for different stuff. If CCP is going to nerf invention, you WILL hear about it, unless it's a bug (in which case, you'll hear about it). Get the associated skills up: it makes a difference. If you're rich beyond belief, use decryptors, it helps. Otherwise, it's random. Yes, you CAN get 10-15 failures in a row; sh!t happens. And yes, you can get 10-15 successes in a row. Hell, I've NEVER failed on a Kitsune, and I've hit only ONCE on a Crane (out of like 10 embarassing tries).
So suck it up. :) And get the skills up to at least L4 for things you're inventing.
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Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.07.11 15:55:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Kat Bandeis
OK, seriously, it's random.
I have impression it's not entirely random. Too big "clusters" of failures and sucsesses clumping togehter to be really random. Over long time and a lot of tries end result is same as it would be random on average ofc. Prolly just some quirk of EVE random number generator.
I have not done numbers myself, but there was quite good thread about EVE random number generator approx 1.5 years ago with some nutcase who had done some ten thousand or so "rolls" with it. Not with invention ofc I think this guy had used ECM for those "rolls" of virtual dice. Ofc I think end conclusion after some discussion was that number of "rolls" was not enough to really tell either way and it derailed into lenghty discussion about various ways of getting random numbers in computer.
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Squat Hardpeck
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Posted - 2009.07.11 16:47:00 -
[17]
Quote: Why is my invention boning me all of a sudden?
Stop bending over?
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Nierna
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Posted - 2009.07.11 18:12:00 -
[18]
got to love the RNG huh? :)
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2009.07.11 18:30:00 -
[19]
Well.. sorry, but for me to be able to understand, that your fail-streak didn't coincide with the last patch, I would had needed an 'it' in this particular sentence here in your OP:
Originally by: Verx Interis ... When it started beep didn't coincide with any patch as far as I could tell, it just suddenly happened. ...
If you tell me I'm wrong, then I apologize for being a moron.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.07.12 11:13:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Carniflex
Originally by: Kat Bandeis
OK, seriously, it's random.
I have impression it's not entirely random. Too big "clusters" of failures and sucsesses clumping togehter to be really random. Over long time and a lot of tries end result is same as it would be random on average ofc. Prolly just some quirk of EVE random number generator.
The nature of random events is that there WILL be 'clusters' of failures and successes. People who try and tell you otherwise simply don't understand. It's how people win big at casinos etc. There are both big runs of success and failure in everything random. Also, there is no 'EVE' RNG, there is an RNG built into any CPU, there is no special one written for Eve, that would be quite simply insane. Given the way any software like this is built, even if the RNG was somehow unusually streaky (it's not), the fact that there are thousands of uses of it per second means that you still wouldn't see it manifest in non-random behaviour.
Quote: I have not done numbers myself, but there was quite good thread about EVE random number generator approx 1.5 years ago with some nutcase who had done some ten thousand or so "rolls" with it. Not with invention ofc I think this guy had used ECM for those "rolls" of virtual dice. Ofc I think end conclusion after some discussion was that number of "rolls" was not enough to really tell either way and it derailed into lenghty discussion about various ways of getting random numbers in computer.
And basically he was a nutcase...... And it was proven statistically. You can prove that there is nothing unusual about the numbers of successive successes or failures, which was exactly the result of that thread.
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Arous Drephius
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Posted - 2009.07.12 11:30:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Imrahil Oldblood I too had alot of failure in the past few days. I faliled at leat 9 invention in a row, all with good skills, a ship consumed in the invention process and a decryptor giving a 1.1 bonus to invention. Something seems wrong even if 9 is not a sufficient statistic, normally I got around 50-55% success.
You're doing it wrong.
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ingenting
20th Legion Sodalitas XX
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Posted - 2009.07.12 18:40:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Verx Interis Read OP and try again before you fail at flaming
search invention before you do an epic fail _________________ - "Welcome to EVE, remember to insu *BAAOOM*... Told you, newb."
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Kesper North
Caldari Epiphyte Mining and Exploration Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2009.07.12 18:53:00 -
[23]
Ordinarily I'd be the first to scoff at posts like this, but I've seen a similar horrible dwindling in invention success rates over the last two weeks. I've run about 100 jobs and my success rate is right around 1%. This is with two out of three skills at 5.
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Verx Interis
Amarr SkyNet.
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Posted - 2009.07.12 20:21:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Kat Bandeis OK, seriously, it's random. Look up the percentages for different stuff. If CCP is going to nerf invention, you WILL hear about it, unless it's a bug (in which case, you'll hear about it). Get the associated skills up: it makes a difference. If you're rich beyond belief, use decryptors, it helps. Otherwise, it's random. Yes, you CAN get 10-15 failures in a row; sh!t happens. And yes, you can get 10-15 successes in a row. Hell, I've NEVER failed on a Kitsune, and I've hit only ONCE on a Crane (out of like 10 embarassing tries).
So suck it up. :) And get the skills up to at least L4 for things you're inventing.
Good lord you people are thick.
I understand how random things works. That makes sense. What I was not sure about was whether or not I did something accidentally that broke my chances. I mentioned in the OP that I did NOT believe it had anything to do with the patch, and I have all my invention skills (for what I'm inventing) at level 4. All of this was said in the OP.
Originally by: Tres Farmer Well.. sorry, but for me to be able to understand, that your fail-streak didn't coincide with the last patch, I would had needed an 'it' in this particular sentence here in your OP:
Originally by: Verx Interis ... When it started beep didn't coincide with any patch as far as I could tell, it just suddenly happened. ...
If you tell me I'm wrong, then I apologize for being a moron.
Quote: When it started didn't coincide with any patch....
Are you a robot? Do you fail to figure that sentence out because the grammar isn't 100% accurate? What did you think it meant?! ---- Logins required for this post: 304980 |
Karentaki
Gallente Oberon Incorporated Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2009.07.12 23:54:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Verx Interis
Originally by: RaTTuS it is bursty 28 runs is not anything to be worried about .... see how it goes over a few hundred
Well it totals out to something like 19 out of the past 68 runs being successful. Which kinda sucks.
Originally by: Yarinor OMG CCP stealth nerfed invention!
Read OP and try again before you fail at flaming
From my calculations on open-office calc the chances of you getting only 19 out of 68 runs at 55% is:
0.000005696
or 0.0005696%
I think the guy might just have a point. (or my calculations could be wrong due to tiredness).
Quote:
EVE is like a sandbox with landmines. Deal with it.
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