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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.13 11:24:00 -
[1]
Well, I would hope CCP won't change anything at the currenty SISI numbers and that those numbers go live to TQ.
Why?
Because it would be a great experiement in market theory. It also will add a lot of possibilites for speculations. And it opens up wide doors for unbalances. Unbalances are good in my opinion - they create turbulances and interesting opportunities and gameplay.
If it turns out that the inbalances are to big, CCP can always adjust numbers, even between the expansions.
Now a really big thanks to Akita T for all the work in compiling the numbers, the analysis and all the work :-) Though I don't agree with Akita often, the presented stuff here still is a lot of work and earns respect and thanks.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:13:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Treji Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.
You expectations are not correct.
The supply of technetium is based on the total available known moons and pretty optimistic numbers of unknown moons.
The demand of technetium is based on medium term average amount of t2 ships and t2 items traded IN JITA ONLY.
So all in all, the supply situation is pretty optimistic with high numbers, the demand situation is pretty low. Also don't forget that there will be lots of pew pew after Dominion and probably lots of the high end moon mining pos will get shot at, but that is a different topic.
The only real unknown is how CCP will react and if they will pull the current numbers from Sisi to TQ. I don't see why they shouldn't do that for a while and change it after some time and if the situation gets dramatic.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:45:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Treji On a side note, alchemy worked, it just wasn't that profitable, if at all.
I call that not working and a failure.
Alchemy was designed to cap the r64 prices. It never worked like that.
And then the pos exploit debacle...
LATEST after that event they should have seriously revisited alchemy because the whole alchemy numbers were based on were completely wrong numbers. Nothing like this happend.
But yeah, alchemy worked in a way .. you could set up a pos and use the reactions and you would actually get something! lol
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.14 14:30:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Julian Koll Just came online and had a look at certain materials and had to laugh and laugh and laugh. If someone wants to jump the train, have a look the the corresponding advanced materials... price change has not reached them yet.
Yesterday the platinum technite went up pretty quickly after technetium price exploded.
Subsequently today the Fullerides market got pushed up heavily, Nanotransistors going slowly up also.
Sure there is lots and lots of hot isk in the market and speculation heating up the prices additonally. Still pretty interesting times :-)
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.26 15:17:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Akita T Just wait until the patch actually hits... THEN we'll see some nifty chaos.
Absolutely right!
One way or the other
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:49:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Akita T EVEN IF the rumours of the alleged 1500->3000 nanotransistors reaction would actually be true
Those rumours are totally nonsense and a weak attempt at market manipulation. A couple of refutations to that rumour are already posted.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:58:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Akita T Since I'm giving it very good odds we'll see STEADY tech prices above 30k by New Year's Eve, 45k by early February and up to over 70k by early March ...
From my viewpoint even purchasing at 30k would be borderline justifiable right now (hell, even 50k).
Interesting enough is that the composite material based on Technetium like PT is still pretty cheap.
Any explanations for that?
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:53:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Akita T It would be nice if some other (reasonably trustworthy due to reputation) parties could either confirm or deny this in some way
Currently Sisi is down for (unscheduled) downtime. So it might take a bit. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:16:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-) |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:06:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-)
Sisi, latest build 117956, just 7 hours before dowtime for expansion: Nanotransistor reaction yields 1500 units.
So the train can continue to roll.
And the price for Nanotransistors got pushed now to above 7k
Maybe the bottleneck is not Technetium but Nanotransistors and the amount of reactors/logistic necessary to build all those nanotrans. |
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.12.19 17:19:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Melleia What the hell, I leave to go see a movie and Tech is at 46k in Jita. I come back three hours later, it's up to 56k.
I love you Akita.
Thank god I didn't sell my stock before the movie 0.o
Better you keep your stock a bit longer.
Also have some watchful eye on the platinum technite. Sometimes you can make a good bargain there. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.01.04 22:01:00 -
[12]
Of course a reduction of t2 ship building and sales was to be expected after dominion. Lots of uncertainity about prices and volumes was in the market.
But now it seems that ship sales are back on the track.
So kudos to Akita T playing the scary-card to make people sell some of their technetium stockpile in fear of a market crash while it was just a normal time of adjustment together with a correction of the initial overheated speculation. Nice play to get even more cheap tech.
Well done!
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.04 18:48:00 -
[13]
Technetium is on the rise again.
Now that the northern territories with all the technetium moons are under the firm grip of either Morsus Mihi or Razor, they are going to create an artificial shortage so that the prices will explode as well as their income.
Everyone assumes that all the technetium available is sold or used up, but that is not an valid assupmtion. A monopoly always tries to increase the price instead of satisfying the demand. And it makes sense: why giving the (potential) enemy cheap materials while you can earn more holding back the materials due to higher prices and at the same time hurting the (potential) enemy.
Well, we will see I guess. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.06 20:00:00 -
[14]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: Queen Athena Yeah, because it is so easy to get a dozen alliances spread over a half dozen regions + Pets to agree on anything. You think there is any power bloc in this game capable of covering the amount of space that the NC has? More likely we will see the north split amongst several blocs and thus several price point agendas.
As soon as one NC member gets attacked you will see them undercut the rest of the "cartel" to milk as much profit as they can before falling.
Agreed. The idea of the NC controlling the price through cartel is comical
Oh yeah, absolutely comical.
Especially since there was a monopoly on dysprosium and promethium also for most of the time. And that stuff was found everywhere in 0.0 and low sec and not just in a very few selected regions which are under the control of one of the most powerful group of alliances in 0.0
And no, 'the' NC isn't controlling the tech. It is the core-NC with Morsus Mihi and Razor, maybe a little TCF also. But no one else.
Go figure. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.07 14:13:00 -
[15]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: Gnulpie Oh yeah, absolutely comical.
Especially since there was a monopoly on dysprosium and promethium also for most of the time. And that stuff was found everywhere in 0.0 and low sec and not just in a very few selected regions which are under the control of one of the most powerful group of alliances in 0.0
And no, 'the' NC isn't controlling the tech. It is the core-NC with Morsus Mihi and Razor, maybe a little TCF also. But no one else.
Go figure.
Non-responsive and bordering on nonsensical.
The last couple of weeks you were just spewing one-line nonsense stuff (akita code, roffle roffle, no panic, time waster, pointless, comical, nonsensical) and weak attempts of market manipulations (sell sell!, this time for sure, look at me!, panic).
Not a single argument at all. Just huff and bluff mixed with a couple insults. Go and refute some of my arguments before you start talking big and insult me of being nonsensical. I wonder if you are again going to call me names or if you are comming forth with at least a few arguments to refute my following points?
When one looks at the promethium und dysprosium prices it is clear that there was some cartel to stabilize or even increase the prices beyond normal supply/demand mechanisms. That is clearly shown by the fact that the price dropped heavily with increased tradevolume after CCP announced that they want to change the moon-mineral demand and the heavy price crash after they released the actual numbers. Especially the increased tradevolume with dropping prices shows that there was quite some stockpile available and that not all moon material was put onto the market but held back to shorten the supply and to increase the price.
If such a cartel can happen with materials like dysprosium and promethium which are available everywhere in the universe then the same thing can for sure happen with a material which is mainly found in a few regions which additionally are all under the tight control of one of the most powerful entities in 0.0.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.01.28 09:20:00 -
[16]
Technetium price is at the moment purely driven by speculators and not by demand.
Why?
Because the products like platinum technite and to a much lesser degree fluxed condensates are a lot cheaper than their components. If there would be a high demand from manufacturers then especially the PT would be bought off already a good while ago.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:59:00 -
[17]
It all boils down to "How many tech moons exist?".
If it is considerably more (>30%) than 350-400 then the demand is currently not enough to gobble up the supply.
If there are around 350-400 tech moons, then the demand is at least as large as the supply.
Unless you have the true numbers, it is all up to you what you want to believe.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:44:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Khanid Voltar CCP are planning to do something about 0.0 this winter. That's all her post (and the dev blog she linked) said.
The devblog says in pretty clear words that they are looking for more ways of conflict/pvp than just the sov-system. Sources of high income are most certainly one way to fuel conflicts. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.05.11 07:42:00 -
[19]
Funny, people are pulling their sell orders off the market.
Only something like 1m tech left on the market for sale.
Probably someone will swoop that up too or dump a large amount onto the market. Interesting times! |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.06.08 22:59:00 -
[20]
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended? >> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
How very funny. On the one side they say that they want large incentives in 0.0 so that people have something valuable to fight over. On the other side they say that it is not good to have valuable stuff in 0.0.
MAKE UP YOUR MIND! |
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.07.08 11:03:00 -
[21]
Looks like there is some serious pressure, pushing the prices down heavily.
We just saw buy orders for 94k getting filled, and sell orders of more than 800k units.
If that is market manipulation or original oversupply/underdemand remains to be seen.
It looks like we won't see top prices soon again. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:16:00 -
[22]
Good times |
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