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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.08 22:30:00 -
[1]
ke to the EVE economy ever.
Just stop for a second. Relax. Imagine you don't have billions of isk. Imagine that you don't understand even a single piece of the T2 reaction chain, have never had a single buy order posted in Jita, and couldn't possibly fathom how a shortage in mechanical parts in Essence would impact Exile booster production. Imagine that the prospect of trying to figure out how a POS works literally scares you. Good. Now you're in the mindset of 99.5% of EVE players. We'll come back to this in a little while.
The central thesis I'm going to present can be summarized: Planetary Interaction is not some innocent plaything CCP is unleashing for the pleasure of SimCity enthusiasts. Oh don't get me wrong, it's likely that even the game designers and devs don't have a clue about this, but Planetary Interaction represents a radical redistribution of wealth in EVE and a complete transformation of the purchasing power of the lower 99% of EVE residents (and I'm willing to bet all my isk that this is Dr. Eyjolfur Gudmundsson's baby -- his fingerprints are alll over it).
Another way to put this is passive income generation for the masses. Imagine everyone in EVE had access to 5 "POSes." Ok, now you've imagined that, and hopefully realized that planets are the same thing as a POS, but with zero capital investment and very low skill needs (go watch the video where they introduce it "we want anyone to be able to just jump into this"). Not only that, by all current accounts on Sisi, these new "POSes" are kind of fun. Now let's stop calling them POSes, because now we have to start talking about the economic interaction between Planets and POSes.
From this point forward it is assumed that all non-ice POS fuel will be produced by players on planets within 6 months.
The mark of the successful EVE industrialist is the Large POS. What I'd wager most POS users don't realize, is that currently they are sitting on top of the largest isk sink in EVE. I'm a lazy brat and am not going to collect and type out the calculations I did yesterday, but NPC POS fuel accounts for 15-20% of ALL isk transactions in EVE, and currently all that isk swirls merrily into the void. This isk sink is going to disappear with Tyrannis, but that's not so important. Isk sinks and faucets disappear and reappear all the time. What's important is how this isk is going to be redirected, but before I can make a good case for that, we need to talk about Dr. Eyjolfur Gudmundsson.
Dr. Eyjolfur Gudmundsson thinks that you're a liquidity trap, and he's right. Isk distribution in EVE is absurd and is only mirrored in real-life by countries like Nigeria. Dr. Eyjolfur Gudmundsson would be a bit elated every time a string of small-time scams gets pulled off in MD. But he's not really paying attention to that, because he's been looking for systemic fixes to the problem. T3 was the first salvo -- it is beautifully designed, the salvagers and hackers get paid very well as do the manufacturers, and it is impossible to monopolize T3 -- wormholes are highly compartmentalized by design. Dr. Gudmundsson's next move is to link the passive income of POS users to the new (definitely less lucrative) passive, decentralized passive income of planetary interaction. And this is why to every response I receive in this thread that says "LOL supply will outstrip demand of POS fuel and PI will make about as much passive isk as datacores LOL EVE goes back to normal" I reply simply, "No. CCP realized that insurance had ceased to be a way for new players to keep themselves in the action without having to mine/mission ad nauseam, and now they're phasing it out. If the first iteration of PI doesn't replace that with a nice passive income, CCP will make it so through corrective measures."
TLDR: Insurance rebalance is a minor adjustment against the more important backdrop of CCP implementing passive income sources for the 99% of players who currently have <100mil in wallet.
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.08 22:34:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Alice Celadon on 08/04/2010 22:41:46 Further implications:
-The income/hr you make in game with your mighty industrial megalith is going to get a bit closer to all the other professions. EVE players are all going to start valuing their in game time a bit more now that everyone has passive incomes.
-Low end minerals are going to bounce, and T1 ships may finally reach their current "base cost." Mining is boring as phukk and more people will do PI instead. Low end mineral prices will be amplified by an increase in the average isk on hand of EVE players. Remember that as with a real economy, prices of T1 ships in the future are going to be affected not just by the cost of producing (which currently is balanced against the hard-bottom of insurance fraud), but also BY THE AMOUNT EACH PLAYER IS WILLING AND ABLE TO PAY.
etc. I'm sure there are other consequences I haven't thought of, please contribute.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.04.08 22:39:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Alice Celadon TLDR: Insurance rebalance is a minor adjustment against the more important backdrop of CCP implementing passive income sources for the 99% of players
If the playbase approaches it this way then they'll wreck the market and shoot themselves in the foot, just like every patch.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.08 22:46:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Professor Leech
Originally by: Alice Celadon TLDR: Insurance rebalance is a minor adjustment against the more important backdrop of CCP implementing passive income sources for the 99% of players
If the playbase approaches it this way then they'll wreck the market and shoot themselves in the foot, just like every patch.
Please read the sentence before the TLDR.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.04.08 22:48:00 -
[5]
No.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife Discord.
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Posted - 2010.04.08 22:49:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Mahke on 08/04/2010 22:49:58 Edited by: Mahke on 08/04/2010 22:49:45 1) It requires grind 2) It does not require grind a) It generates >100mil/month/character b) It generates <100mil/month/character
1) Just another grind
2a)Will be farmed with armies of alt accounts until 2b happens (reference: datacores)
2b) Whatever.
edit: if it somehow has knock on effects it could matter, but, I don't see this as a massive wealth distribution to the low end.
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2010.04.08 23:02:00 -
[7]
How exactly do you define PI operations as "passive"? They take as much time-and-clicking as running a POS or manufacturing - something that a relatively small percentage of the Eve population enjoys. In addition, hi-sec planets are grossly unproductive in comparison to low and null sec, further eliminating the passive income you're describing. I'll be very surprised if even 5% of the Eve population is involved with PI two months after launch. I'm curious as to why you think a much larger percentage of the population will enjoy, and profit from, PI?
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.08 23:53:00 -
[8]
Originally by: RJ Nobel hi-sec planets are grossly unproductive in comparison to low and null sec, further eliminating the passive income you're describing. I'll be very surprised if even 5% of the Eve population is involved with PI two months after launch. I'm curious as to why you think a much larger percentage of the population will enjoy, and profit from, PI?
First, the major problem people in this forum are going to have figuring this out is that they can't fathom paying $15/month for one account and considering it a bit of a financial hardship to replace a T2 Drake every week.
50mil/month is nothing to me, is nothing to you (and that's how CCP wants it with PI), but to someone who just has to set up supply lines and tweak them once or twice a week as opposed to getting the Damsel and the veld, it's a goldmine. And don't forget -- low risk, low overhead, low skills, constant return.
Second, the thing about hisec/lowsec/nullsec is what the player base is currently assuming and CCP has currently said, "Well..." to. Don't count on it.
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2010.04.09 00:10:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Alice Celadon
First, the major problem people in this forum are going to have figuring this out is that they can't fathom paying $15/month for one account and considering it a bit of a financial hardship to replace a T2 Drake every week.
50mil/month is nothing to me, is nothing to you (and that's how CCP wants it with PI), but to someone who just has to set up supply lines and tweak them once or twice a week as opposed to getting the Damsel and the veld, it's a goldmine. And don't forget -- low risk, low overhead, low skills, constant return.
Interesting. My follow up question then - how does a passive, easily obtained income stream cause a redistribution of wealth?
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.04.09 00:23:00 -
[10]
This process is rob from the poor and give to the rich. Not the other way around.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.09 00:24:00 -
[11]
Originally by: RJ Nobel
Interesting. My follow up question then - how does a passive, easily obtained income stream cause a redistribution of wealth?
If I show even one person what I think I've stumbled across, I'll be happy. The primary consumer of NPC goods are people like you and me, with tons of isk and tons of production. Before Tyrannis, our NPC fuel POS isk goes to ... thin air. After Tyrannis, that isk goes to the PI chaps. I give it at least a few days before someone else runs the numbers on how much isk gets spent on NPC POS fuel.
If people who are actually reading this don't believe me, let me ask you a question. You conduct opinion polls on your game and find out that most people quit after trying your shoddy PVE for a few months -- they never made enough isk to PVP (in the market or otherwise), which is what your hardcore fans say is completely awesome about your game. Most of these hardcore fans started in the same boat, but through shear force of will or masochism stuck it out for another month. Your reaction please?
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.04.09 00:37:00 -
[12]
So the manufacturers at the top of the chain still make more isk that those providing npc fuel. Then the people invested in PI then spend their profits on buying pvp gear giving the isk back to the people at the top of the chain.
I don't see a redistribution in wealth.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2010.04.09 00:49:00 -
[13]
Edited by: RJ Nobel on 09/04/2010 00:50:09 I'm following all of your logic to the point where the "new" ISK reaches the wallets of the "PI chaps". What I don't follow is how you assume that the new ISK will effectively increase their wealth. These are people who aren't interested or capable of making large sums of ISK. If you give them an allowance, they'll simply increase their spending, and all of your new PI ISK ends up back in the hands of the industrialist/trader tycoons. An increase in market transaction volume does not translate to a change in the distribution of wealth.
Edited for formatting
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Packtu'sa
Nabaal Construction and Industrials Corp Nabaal Syndicate
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:01:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Alice Celadon If I show even one person what I think I've stumbled across, I'll be happy.
Don't worry, I get what you're saying, and I agree with your conclusion. CCP has been making EVE easier for years now, and I deplore that trend, but I recognize that I can't do much to make them look away from their bottom line.
@RJ Nobel and anyone else who thinks that extra income will return to industrialists because they buy ships/weapons: So what? The ISK might go back to industrialists, but now those plebs have ships and weapons. I think Alice Celadon is absolutely right about the intent of this patch.
But, enterprising individuals will know how to soak that money out of the masses again. You know who you are.
Packtu'sa Founder/CEO, Nabaal Construction and Industrials Corp [NCIC] |
Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:09:00 -
[15]
Originally by: RJ Nobel Edited by: RJ Nobel on 09/04/2010 00:50:09 I'm following all of your logic to the point where the "new" ISK reaches the wallets of the "PI chaps". What I don't follow is how you assume that the new ISK will effectively increase their wealth. These are people who aren't interested or capable of making large sums of ISK. If you give them an allowance, they'll simply increase their spending, and all of your new PI ISK ends up back in the hands of the industrialist/trader tycoons. An increase in market transaction volume does not translate to a change in the distribution of wealth.
My work is done here. Income available to spend is the definition of wealth. Moreso in the EVE universe, where the two hundred billion I have in my account may as well not exist.
Now excuse me while I go push PLEX prices a little higher.
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:11:00 -
[16]
I agree that the money won't necessarily be redistributed insomuch as those of us with hundred billion isk wallets aren't likely to suddenly be reduced to 20b wallets; however, I see where it's -circulating- more - removing the sink and replacing it with an item faucet that produces items in and of themselves valuable (but probably not valuable enough to be arsed with for said 100b wallets) allows the presumed target (newbie) audience to generate some very low-key income that doesn't require grinding yet another damsel.
tl;dr Rich stay rich, poor don't really get rich (ISK-wise), but they might get richer (assets-wise).
Regarding high-sec mining:
Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:12:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Professor Leech on 09/04/2010 01:12:25
Originally by: Packtu'sa @RJ Nobel and anyone else who thinks that extra income will return to industrialists because they buy ships/weapons: So what? The ISK might go back to industrialists, but now those plebs have ships and weapons.
Another way to make isk that's accessable? Yes.
Will it give people ships and gear to use? Yes.
Will it get more people out pvping? I'm pretty sure it will.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:23:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Alice Celadon
My work is done here. Income available to spend is the definition of wealth. Moreso in the EVE universe, where the two hundred billion I have in my account may as well not exist.
Now excuse me while I go push PLEX prices a little higher.
You still haven't addressed my question - wherein all of this is the redistribution of wealth? You're implying an across-the-board increase in wealth. Everyone will have more ISK to spend - so what? That's not the radical shift in economic policy that you seem to be implying in your OP.
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Forum Dweller
Minmatar
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:35:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Alice Celadon Moreso in the EVE universe, where the two hundred billion I have in my account may as well not exist.
This thread just became an EPeen wallet battle, which is why you said you're work here is done, and left with that comment about your uber wallet.
Before I leave.... in order to anchor and operate a POS, you need what? like Anchoring lvl 1, and for labs you need lvl 3 I think. How is this not noob friendly?
The reason why 99% of the playerbase in Eve doesn't find a way to make passive isk, is because they don't want to do the number work required. They're lazy to be brief.
Telling us to relax in your OP was a nice touch btw
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:35:00 -
[20]
Look, I'm happy just to leave it there. Something that could nearly eradicate hisec mining without unspawning the roids and cut in half the number of level 4 missions that get run seems like a big deal to me. If you're willing to concede everything you have so far, expect low-end mineral value to skyrocket just for starters.
I see some really important "knock-on" affects of this (a hundred thousand mini-industrialists today = ? tomorrow), but I think I've spewed enough incredible garbage for one day.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:37:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Professor Leech Will it get more people out pvping? I'm pretty sure it will.
Thinking like this lead to the 10% NPC corp tax to get people to join player corps, which failed pretty hard.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:41:00 -
[22]
Put this in conjunction with the fall in mineral prices it seems reasonable. However, there is an issue that you've pointed out: most of the player base is terrible and probably won't pvp anyway.
The same as Alice's thinking that players will make rational, informed and calculated decisions about their income. When what is likely to happen is that they will continue to mine high sec belts.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.04.09 01:44:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Forum Dweller
Originally by: Alice Celadon Moreso in the EVE universe, where the two hundred billion I have in my account may as well not exist.
This thread just became an EPeen wallet battle, which is why you said you're work here is done, and left with that comment about your uber wallet.
Before I leave.... in order to anchor and operate a POS, you need what? like Anchoring lvl 1, and for labs you need lvl 3 I think. How is this not noob friendly?
The reason why 99% of the playerbase in Eve doesn't find a way to make passive isk, is because they don't want to do the number work required. They're lazy to be brief.
Telling us to relax in your OP was a nice touch btw
Oh God, why can't I leave this thread alone?? What if I said, without logging in, pshah!!! no one's going to mine the same rock and rescue the same damsel everyday!!! That's boring as hell!!!
I would argue that lack of pos anchoring is about risk aversion and startup capital. As soon as you anchor your first small caldari pos, you've committed yourself to a return greater than 50mil isk/month and opened yourself to attack not to mention ground up 7.0 standings/paid for the same, researched an appropriate market...hey guess what? None of that applies to PI.
I see the kernel of your argument, now don't be naive about the kernel of mine. BTW, I'm sorry about the wallet epeenery. I don't know how long you've been playing, but that stuff really ****ed me off a while back. Now it just saddens me. There isn't much to do with that much isk...except epeen and let it sit there.
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.04.09 02:19:00 -
[24]
Can I haz your wallet?
Regarding high-sec mining:
Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.04.09 03:18:00 -
[25]
Still going to need industrialists to build the ships and traders to make markets no matter how much an allowance people got.
And if they had no isk at all we'd make zero, if they didn't loot, I wouldn't have a lot of stuff I make billions trading.
Pvpers who spend a few nights a week doing level 4s on an alt make us indy's and traders rich.. people buying isk with $ via gtc's are often the most spendthrift types willing to give us high margins.
I can't see how even if ccp paid everyone a nice few hundred million stipend it would be bad for our relative wealth, and they're not doing that exactly anyway, and there are natural limits of player demand that will cap the whoe market to some fractin fo the rest of the economy and like others have said, even the profits that do come from the planet will have large pieces sliced out of them y the people willing to do the legwork tomove stuff etc. ... no fears to be had in the direction you were alluding.
If they were making the same stuff cheaper and more easily tahta a different story
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Grayclay
Caldari Van Uber. Order of the Rising Sun
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Posted - 2010.04.09 03:24:00 -
[26]
Is there something inherently wrong with giving those of us with under 1 billion isk more money to play the game with? The greatest barrier to entry this game has, aside from the 90 degree learning curve, is the insane amount of time needed to spend grinding out some of the most boring gameplay mechanics in existence in order to do anything fun. With more money in our wallets, more people will play the game more, and more money will be spent. I don't quite see how this can hurt anybody producing or trading, they're wallets will just get unnecessarily fatter and fatter.
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SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
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Posted - 2010.04.09 04:46:00 -
[27]
oh no oh no oh no oh nooooo
what will i do now that i cannot leverage my staggering, overflowing, balance-breaking wallet into a sure, garanteed, shameless, systematic, and of course honorable victory that will be sung at each and every vogon poetry convention from now until the whole universe is morphed and molded into one immortal, single, and harmonious superhighway that leads directly and without ambuscades of any kind to the nearest vogon poetry convention?
this being said, i, and i must say a bit sadly unless most of the good p.i. stuff ends up in lowsec, predict a bright and shimmering future for the burgeoning profession of highsec spacelane planetary highway piracy profession! let's rejoice and open one rare (and sadly under-seeded *wink* *wink* *nudge* *nudge*) keg of the oft-mentioned but rarely seen SMURGLEBLASTER which hopefully is going to be part of this unique leveling expansion. *shakes monocle in a subtle, barely perceivable manner*
(yes it's a t2 monocle and no it's not for sale)
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Rico Lobo
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Posted - 2010.04.09 05:55:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Rico Lobo on 09/04/2010 05:58:05 Edited by: Rico Lobo on 09/04/2010 05:56:30
Originally by: Alice Celadon Edited by: Alice Celadon on 08/04/2010 22:41:46 Further implications:
-The income/hr you make in game with your mighty industrial megalith is going to get a bit closer to all the other professions. EVE players are all going to start valuing their in game time a bit more now that everyone has passive incomes.
-Low end minerals are going to bounce, and T1 ships may finally reach their current "base cost." Mining is boring as phukk and more people will do PI instead. Low end mineral prices will be amplified by an increase in the average isk on hand of EVE players. Remember that as with a real economy, prices of T1 ships in the future are going to be affected not just by the cost of producing (which currently is balanced against the hard-bottom of insurance fraud), but also BY THE AMOUNT EACH PLAYER IS WILLING AND ABLE TO PAY.
etc. I'm sure there are other consequences I haven't thought of, please contribute.
Mining is boreing as Re******ans and is mostly done by people who are AFK or useing alts while being loged into there Fleet op and/or listening in on voip while haveing there mining op auto running in the background.
Basicaly if they can do this AND afk mine at the same time, guess what they are going to do.
BOTH
oh look, guess what you can do at the same time. . . and often in the same !@#$ system as the low crap yeild belts
honestly unless they apruptly poof the roids alltoghther and hide them in missions or something I dont see this causing mutch of a change. whats going to pull people off of making money afk mining is if they can make more money by NOT afk mining.
for that to happen currently even with this is for them to nerf insurance payouts on hulks and orcas while making it a lot easyer for everyone else to go after hulks and orcas (that or put some harder ass respawn rats in roid belts,or move roids to mission belts) to the point that mining is a money loosing propsistion if your AFK
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Di Mulle
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Posted - 2010.04.09 06:39:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Di Mulle on 09/04/2010 06:40:54
Originally by: Alice Celadon
I'm a lazy brat and am not going to collect and type out the calculations I did yesterday, but NPC POS fuel accounts for 15-20% of ALL isk transactions in EVE, and currently all that isk swirls merrily into the void.
For the starters, it is either bad wording or completely out of touch. 15-20 % of all ISK transactions ? Are you crazy? NPC fuel is about 20% of POS fuel expenditure.
Now are you saying that all ISK transactions in EVE consists of buying POS fuel only ???
I would understand if you say it is 20% of NPC ISK sinks, which may be true, maybe not...
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Mestophoclies
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Posted - 2010.04.09 07:38:00 -
[30]
I wonder if CCP ever stopped to think that the 5 excruciating hours mining veldspar or rescuing the damsel is what makes PVP so damn exciting. If you just give me a ship, I don't care if I loose it or not. I might as well go play some first person shooter. The thing that is so awesome about PVP in EVE is that there are real, serious consequences to dying. What you loose is the time you spent getting the isk for that ship, and without that, you loose nothing, and therefore PVP would be less exciting.
inb4 people pvping in large alliances often have passive isk and still enjoy pvping. Well they have other things on the line to loose, like massive amounts of time invested in space and assets like Pos', which they originally got the isk for by missioning, etc, and which they fight big battles to protect. Giving everyone passive income will ruin the game imo.
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