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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.27 00:21:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Zos Tarkross on 27/04/2010 00:21:39 I am thinking to set up in the next while a (yet another) trading experiment similar to the many other "rags to riches" threads past or present. Here are the proposed parameters of the experiment:
1) I will use my 2 alts, seeding each with an initial 5K. First alt (Michella) will be located in Gallente space and the second (Reliq) will be in Minmatar space. I think both have a few trade skills trained up already but nothing that wouldn't take a new player a week or so.
2) Phase 1 goals: take the alts on average to 10 million ISK net worth each (where net worth = ISK + buy order escrow + conservative mark on sell orders (probably a 20-25% haircut) and inventory (marked at approx hub bid prices)). This means that the starting total stake of 5K + 5K = 10K gets run up to 20 MM (I use MM as the abbreviation for 1 million). So at the finish, one alt could be at 15 MM and the other at 5 MM such that the total is 20MM - it will be interesting to see whether the Gallente or Minmatar character makes more, per time logged. If one character gets excessively rich relative to the other, ISK transfers may be done. No transfers from/to Zos's wallet.
3) Log all in-game time on these alts, to the nearest 5 minutes or so. Obviously, the starting small capital base will make ISK/hour ludicrously tiny. But I'm curious how casually I can multiply the ISK, so keeping track of in game research/market updating/flying time will be critical.
4) Reprocessing is allowed. Some hauling is to be tolerated but I will have to account for that in the total game time spent. This will help establish some trade-off between time hauling vs other trading activities. I don't plan on using anything bigger than a T1 frigate with cargo expanders - I realize that I should probably strictly start out with a noobship but for now it'll probably be any T1 the characters have lying around.
5) I intend to show, as well as general strategy, a number of details including item names, rough quantity, location, etc. These details would be released after certain milestones are met - I won't do it real-time just in case someone wants to have fun crashing my margins. But, if people move into that item/location afterwards, that's fine with me - ongoing research should provide other opportunities and I will have moved on. My purpose is to give some ideas to absolute newbies.
6) Milestones: per 1 character, milestones in order will be net worths of: 5K, 100K, 500K, 2MM, 5MM, 10MM (multiply by 2 for the overall experiment goal of 2 x 10MM = 20MM).
7) Initial locations: both alts will probably be off the beaten path, at least initially. I kind of want to see what the secondary/tertiary hubs are like. That means Michella will not start in Dodixie and Reliq won't start in Rens. And of course due to the regional parameters, nobody's starting in Jita or will take the flying time to visit there. Any questions/suggestions are welcome.
PS - Incidentally, I have done an experiment like this before of which almost all profits were given away before I took a long break from EvE - for details, just search the interwebs using a phrase like: +"Zos Tarkross" +trading
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Krythas
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Posted - 2010.04.27 06:17:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Zos Tarkross Edited by: Zos Tarkross on 27/04/2010 00:21:39 Any questions/suggestions are welcome.
Um, use normal units when referring to Million would be a good start, using MM is an eyesore and confusing, even moreso when you start trying to mix metric units into the bunch like using 'K'
I have no idea where the sudden infatuation with using MM to denote millions comes from but it really needs to die a nasty horrid death.
:-)
Other than that - looking forward to seeing how you do.
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Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
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Posted - 2010.04.27 06:29:00 -
[3]
Waffles my good man, buy waffles.
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Gunnanmon
Gallente The Scope
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Posted - 2010.04.27 10:44:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Zos Tarkross I use MM as the abbreviation for 1 million).
As you do. Signature locked for discussing moderation. Navigator
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.27 11:01:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Companion Trollin Waffles my good man, buy waffles.
I see more of a regional arbitrage in maple syrup, actually.
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.27 11:12:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Krythas
Um, use normal units when referring to Million would be a good start, using MM is an eyesore and confusing, even moreso when you start trying to mix metric units into the bunch like using 'K'
so instead of writing "MM" would you rather see the full word "Million" typed, or is "Mill" OK? I just worry a single "M" for million could look to some like one thousand (which I normally abbreviate K as per metric)
Small Update: I thought this project would take a week or so to set up, but yesterday I flew the characters to their regions, decided to check a couple prices, couldn't believe my eyes on the buy-sell gap between some low-priced things, so decided to take the plunge and just start.
Characters gave away extra ISK to Zos, so Reliq starts the project with 5267 ISK and Michella with about the same but I'll check it precisely tonight.
About 50 minutes flying/market research time yesterday and 50 this morning. Total 100 minutes so far.
Reliq has now 971 in cash and 3645 in escrow buy orders. Michella has 852 in cash and 3008 in escrow buy orders.
One thing I didn't account for is the 100 ISK fee for setting orders. Trading as usual, I never worried about it. But hopefully my current orders start to get filled. Otherwise, I'll use up available cash in paying the 100 ISK fees...
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Estel Arador
Minmatar Estel Arador Corp Services
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Posted - 2010.04.27 11:21:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Zos Tarkross so instead of writing "MM" would you rather see the full word "Million" typed, or is "Mill" OK? I just worry a single "M" for million could look to some like one thousand (which I normally abbreviate K as per metric)
So you're worrying about people misinterpreting the pretty much standard "M", but aren't worried about them misinterpreting them the pretty much stupid "MM"? M might look one thousand, but MM looks like a million million (which is a trillion for most sane people).
Free jumpclone service|924 stations - 6300+ users |
Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.28 00:41:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Estel Arador M might look one thousand, but MM looks like a million million (which is a trillion for most sane people).
OK, OK. I get it. Many don't like the "MM" = 1 million.
I'll go back and edit to use "M" = 1 million.
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Krythas
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Posted - 2010.04.28 02:00:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Zos Tarkross
Originally by: Estel Arador M might look one thousand, but MM looks like a million million (which is a trillion for most sane people).
OK, OK. I get it. Many don't like the "MM" = 1 million.
I'll go back and edit to use "M" = 1 million.
Thanks, and I'm still looking forward to the reports telling how you did. I had a corp mate asking about the trade industry and how to get into it, this type of thread may be a good one to point people to.
On the 'MM' thing, most people seem to think that 'M' being 1000 in Roman numerals (does anyone tend to use those as standard units anyway these days) makes 'MM' equivalent to 1000 x 1000, but in actual fact, following standard Roman numeral syntax, it means 2000 (think, things like VI != 5)
I'd really love to know where it started (anyone want post a history lesson ? :-) ) and wonder if it was something along the lines of the year 2000 notation (2k1, 2k9 etc etc to denote 2001, 2009 respectively) that tried to take a page from electrical notation and getting it terribly wrong (fwiw, 2k9 = 2900, not 2009, the notation was done this way as trying to identify decimal points on a circuit diagram that's getting a bit worn was nightmarish and so the k was used to replace the decimal and indicate a unit of a thousand as its easier to identify a worn k than a worn .)
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.28 02:58:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Zos Tarkross on 28/04/2010 02:58:14 I've posted updated net worth tracking to the original post.
At end of day 2 with a conservative mark on sell orders, total net is 77.6 K ISK.
Michella is currently in Oursulaert, ISK in wallet = 1.8K, Buy orders escrow = 1.3K, Sell orders out = 55.6K and conservatively marked to 40.0K. Reliq is in Rens, ISK in wallet is 2.8K, buy orders = 1.7K, sell orders = 47.2K with conservative mark at 30K.
Michella started in Alentene as I had heard it was a decent secondary hub in the Verge Vendor region. Things can certainly be cheap there, but I wanted to do some price compare so the few items I bought, I warped over to Oursulaert. Generally volumes are quite a bit higher in Ours vs Alentene, so I put my stuff up for sale in Ours and we'll see how it sells. Verge Vendor is a funny region - no main hub I would say, at least in the cheapie items I'm trading. Seems like more market orders are posted at Clellinon. I will investigate this further.
Reliq started in Hek, but I made a silly mistake. I bought (cheaply) weapons systems that are not the usual Minmatar type (autocannons or artillery). So although I didn't want to hang out in Rens, I flew over to Rens to sell what I have, due to those items not likely quick sellers in Hek. Hopefully then, fly back to Hek to do more market research once I have more ISK handy. After all, I can't resist a solar system called "Hek".
It certainly has been interesting, much less of a grind like trying to make ISK just to buy another ship or something. The challenge of working on a very small budget forces one to be less sloppy. Kind of like how Bill Gates (apparently) plays the $3/6 poker tables when he's in Vegas - not that I would consider myself the Bill Gates of EvE by any remote stretch of the imagination, of course.
Time invested has been more than I would have thought. About 1.5 hours of playtime on Apr 27. Most of it flying around and writing things down with pencil and paper, to be honest.
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.04.28 04:06:00 -
[11]
Apologies for the pedantry, but in line with the "MM" vs "M" for "mega", the common SI Units are: "M" (million/mega) and "k" (thousand/kilo). Note that "M" is uppercase, "k" is lowercase. No more "Mio" (italian for "my"), "MM" (Roman numeral 200) or whatever!
The more people use standard units, the happier a place the world will become :)
Am following this thread with interest though, since I'm planning on switching to trade as an income source rather than running endless mind-numbing missions.
[Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES] |
Grayclay
Caldari The Arrow Project Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2010.04.28 04:10:00 -
[12]
Cool idea, it'd be great if you turned your experience into a guide for new players. Most guides that exist for EvE are several expansions out of date.
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.04.28 04:42:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Grayclay Cool idea, it'd be great if you turned your experience into a guide for new players.
If he manages to get something happening in this thread, this will be enough of a guide for new players :)
No sense to have everyone using the same 'trading recipe' which is what a formal guide would likely end up becoming.
[Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES] |
Kragaar
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Posted - 2010.04.28 15:05:00 -
[14]
Looking forward to reading the results, I've been looking at market trading as a sideline and it'll be nice to see someone with experience step through the beginning stages. I know experience is a great teacher, but experiences of others are great too.
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Gunnanmon
Gallente The Scope
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Posted - 2010.04.28 16:32:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Mara Rinn Apologies for the pedantry, ..."MM" (Roman numeral 200)
Signature locked for discussing moderation. Navigator
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.28 19:54:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Kragaar nice to see someone with experience step through the beginning stages.
actually tbh I don't feel like I'm that experienced - I traded from ~20 million ISK to a few hundred M once in 2008, that's about it. When we talk about experienced I refer to the multi-ISK-billionaires. I think it would be amusing to see some of the EvE tycoons (eg Akita T) try this and report on progress up from 5k...
Even when I was a beginner at EvE I didn't want to start trading with 5k. I would advise any EvE newbies that want to trade for ISK to at least run the tutorial missions and get a few hundred thousand ISK together first. My start with 5k is just playing a different game in the self-constructed sandbox...
The guys on the other active 5k thread actually had much faster progress in 2 days than I have had - I'm going to go re-read their postings actually to get some item ideas...
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.29 02:44:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Mara Rinn
Though I have to wonder why you're writing things down rather than having reports from places like EVE-Central or EVE Metrics?
I've looked at Eve-Central a fair bit in the past. Often I have used it to get a rough Jita "reference price" for something. But only in the ballpark - I don't really trust it for accurate info for anything else. EVE Metrics, I used to have high hopes for but it seemed really slow for awhile, so haven't checked it out.
So in essence I find writing stuff down the low tech way works OK. The next step would be to enter it into a spreadsheet, which I do have a format for, and which I may discuss at some point if people care.
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.29 03:01:00 -
[18]
about 50 minutes played tonight as Michella and 15 as Reliq
Michella's net worth calc (in "k" ISK): 1.3 cash + 8.2 buy orders + 90 sell (haircut from 134.1 actual) = 99.5k Reliq, same calc: 1.4 + 19.3 + 18 (haircut from 25.4) = 38.7
Conservative total net worth = 138.2k ISK
It has been slow - I'm basically in marketing mode on the sell side - needing my items to move, move, move so I can free up capital to buy with. Michella especially, far to much time tonight flying around and picking up low priced stuff - I think it would be more efficient to basically station trade, which is what I am doing as of today's mark. Michella out of Oursulaert and Reliq in Rens (but I want him to go back to Hek ASAP). Go to Hek, Reliq - you hear that? Go. Straight. To. HEK.
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.04.30 02:22:00 -
[19]
about 45-60 minutes tonight - I haven't done an accounting but I believe I am past the first milestone - we shall see tomorrow or when I get a chance to do an accurate mark
Reliq is back in Hek and Michella is still in Oursulaert... I'm really liking Ours for some reason. Maybe I'm part French and don't know it...
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.02 03:04:00 -
[20]
net worth mark I took as of mid-day (about 12 hours ago) - North American timezone:
alt1 - Michella cash 393.8 buy orders 63.8 sell orders 274.6 - conservative @225 total: 683k
alt2 - Reliq cash 205.2 buys - 5.8 sells 166.2 - conservative @ 125 total: 336k
I have found that getting from 50k to 500k is much easier than 5k to 50k. This is contrary to the normal observation that the more ISK you have for trading, the harder it is to make ISK (in percentage returns). The frictional costs and limited item selection at the extremely low end is a hindrance, I think.
I haven't been spending much time at this lately - maybe 20-30 minutes on these alts today. I am basically station (well, sometimes "solar system") trading. Not warping through gates to collecting distributed buy orders saves a *lot* of time...
Note also that Michella has made more than Reliq. This numerical result jives with my experience at the computer - trading in Oursulaert has felt much easier than Hek. Again, maybe I'm doing the wrong items with Reliq or something - who knows...
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.02 03:14:00 -
[21]
So I had committed to naming some exact items for the sake of brand new traders. I would advise one of the first types of items to look into is Laser Crystals - especially if you are starting with only 5k or so. If you are not familiar with the Amarr faction, lasers (or "lazors" for the kool kids) are their preferred weapon - the crystals are the "ammo". The related pirate factions, Sanshas and Blood Raiders, also often use lasers so they drop the crystals as loot in their wrecks. Thus, one can find laser crystals getting sold almost anywhere Sansha, Blood Raiders, or Amarr rats are killed. That's my theory anyway. I have made good profits in this experiment over the last week, in both Gallente and Minmatar hubs with the two alts, on laser crystals.
Here is some pricing differentials, referring to both Radio S (the small laser long-range crystal) and the Multifrequency S (small, short-range but higher damage).
-----
In Oursulaert at the moment (and eyeballing volume the last few days; bid/offer is at the main trade hub station)
Radio S: bid / offer / regional volume per day = 950 / 7499 / 50-100 units
Multifrequency S: 1365 / 5065 / 100-200 units
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And in Hek (Minmatar space):
Radio S: bid / offer / regional volume per day = 1000 / 18000 / 40-60 units
Multifreq S: 80 / 7990 / 60-80 units
yes, I'm not kidding. As of this moment, the selling price on Multifreq is 100x that of the bid price. Thus, my recommendation that new 5k traders look into crystals...
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.04 02:46:00 -
[22]
Mark on evening (North American time) of May 3:
Michella mark cash 329 buy order escrow 625 sell orders 131 (conservative mark @ 100) TOTAL = 1.054 M
Reliq mark cash 33 buy order escrow 246 sell orders 662 (conservative mark @ 550) TOTAL = 0.829 M
TOTAL across both alts = 1.883 M
I'm kind of trading a bit too randomly - just pulling items up on a whim, checking volume and spread. If it looks nice, I'll throw 10-20% of available ISK at it and see what happens. But I have been too lazy to study items in more detail and do comparative analysis, which would really need to be done to optimize profitability.
I also need to do a time accounting, as I had committed to originally.
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.04 02:59:00 -
[23]
so it seems I am talking to myself here (at least I'm not dancing with myself)...
Time accounting, end of May 3:
Day 1 - 1.7 hours Day 2 - 1.5 hours Day 3 - 0.9 hours Day 4 - 1.0 hours Day 5-7 - 0.75 hours per day, total 3 x 0.75 = 2.25 hours Day 8 - 1 hour
Total Days 1-8 (through May 3): 8.4 hours
This is playtime logged in. I have actually been doing much more thinking about trading strategies than this time would suggest.
And you know, it is funny - the ISK amounts are still small, but I'm just thinking about multiplying that number relative to itself. The sandbox remains relatively interesting but the outbidding by small ISK (I almost never literally 0.01 ISK) is getting a bit of a grind - and a grind is exactly what I don't want this to be. I may try to conceive of slightly longer term "plays" such as hub to hub trading, etc. We'll see...
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hinch
Gallente Legio Victor Requiem-Aeternam
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Posted - 2010.05.04 07:53:00 -
[24]
swapping onto larger value items seems to stop the 0.01ers just while capital is low you can't really avoid it.
the highesr the value of the items being bought/sold the less 1uping there is so the trick is to balance fast turn around low margin low value items for a steady stream of liquid isk with the large value slower moving long term buy/sells where you make your larger margin Furious Angels Research and Development. Fully researched BPO's, BPC's and T2 invented BPC's to order. FA BPO and BPC Shop |
Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.05 01:47:00 -
[25]
Originally by: hinch
the highesr the value of the items being bought/sold the less 1uping there is
I am surprised that that would be true in a place like Jita. Since Jita is the place where the "big boys" trade, I would think that actually when you get to multi-million ISK modules and up, that is where the most competitive 0.01 isking games happen. The big boys don't care about the small items, so they don't get 0.01 isked as much. So there would be less efficiently for small items, and probably the same for very expensive items. But the meat in the middle would have lots of competition...
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.07 03:06:00 -
[26]
Status report - I'm sick of the little station trading I've been doing. I guess I have grudging respect for the people who do it all the time - it is not "easy" ISK by any means - one has to work for it.
So between them, Reliq and Michella have about 2.5 M ISK now liquid. Michella has sent Reliq almost all of her cash. Each has some assorted items in their frigates' cargo holds. I am making an audacious play to hopefully triple the total by having Reliq buy certain things in one region - no penny games, just buy from sell orders - and fly 'em to a location Michella has found. Let's see what happens.
In terms of items traded with most profit - now that I'm leaving them behind, pretty much - I've found that in both Oursulaert and Hek, laser crystals, small and medium, had decent profit margins and volume, for the small orders (as I've mentioned before).
Also, in Hek, Reliq was able to trade a few times an item called "200mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I". At this moment, the item is bid 95k, offered 285k in Hek. Trades about 25-75 units per day. So for small accounts of a few hundred thousand ISK trying to build up, items like this seem good. I realize I'm giving away information, gonna kill profit margins, blah blah blah. Whatever. I notice the spread in small crystals is still wide even though I talked about the prices here in detail. I guess this is not the most widely read thread in all of EvE...
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Carazon
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Posted - 2010.05.07 16:52:00 -
[27]
We're reading. Keep going, and offer up hints that you find. Might be good as advice. Things like cheap faction items, heavily used meta 4 items, these are key to a new trader's repertoire.
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.10 02:55:00 -
[28]
I'm a little tired to do a full accounting. Well, the "audacious" play was only about 50% successful. The low volume in the region I had moved some stuff to, meant I had a hard time selling some junk. But the other items did sell. So I've taken the slow movers off the market, bringing them back to higher population areas, and hopefully get 'em sold quicker but cheaper and move that ISK into other items.
Assuming Michella can sell her stuff near the offer prices, she'll be near 6 M in net worth... Reliq at around 1 M 'cause he sent some ISK to Michella...
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.11 02:48:00 -
[29]
actually, here is a slightly more accurate mark and it isn't as bad as I thought. Michella is in Dodixie. Reliq cancelled all orders in Ours and flew all stuff to Dodi to drop off for Michella. I'm this close to violating my "don't go to Jita" parameter of the experiment, and just taking Michella there...
Reliq - 3.03 ISK (cash) Michella: 2.02 cash, 3.54 buys, 4.87 sells marked at 3.5. I have some worries that some of the sell items I managed to stick myself with are really low volume. Wide margins can be oh so seductive...
Total then is Reliq + Michella = 3.03 + 9.06 = 12.09 M
Anything people wish to discuss?
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Zos Tarkross
Amarr Suddenly Ninjas
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Posted - 2010.05.13 02:58:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Zos Tarkross on 13/05/2010 03:00:05 evening of May 12, North American time. I am hoping that if I did an accurate mark of inventory and conservative mark of sell orders, I'd be around 15-16 M. Still pushing to that 20M goal (average of 10M per character)... Not a lot of playtime - basically updating orders for 20 minutes a day
The strategy is as follows as of the last few days. A bit all over the place but, hey, that's variety...
Reliq had flown down to Hek to do some price compares between Dodixie and Hek. There are some, for sure, but I really can't be bothered to figure it all out, buy X in one region, fly to the other, etc... So what Reliq is doing is now centered around Rens, he basically had 3M ISK cash, I set orders to about 4 systems range on some items which would hopefully at least be double on sell orders in Rens. Reliq'll have to fly around to collect but the good news is the buys are almost all filled, way faster than I thought. I guess a lot of mission runners just want to dump stuff in random places Thus I hope his 3M will double on the weekend to 6M ISK liquid...
Previous to this, however, I had mentioned doing some price compares. I am going to give one away that I think is a decent arbitrage - but really, this game is about fun and at the moment, I find it more fun to talk about this trade than to do it (is that why I'm ISK poor? ). I'm logged off now so I hope I have the details correct. There are about 400ish Medium Shield Maintenance Bots (drones) available in systems in Heimatar for around 20-25k each. Last I checked (2-3 days ago), sell price in Jita on volumes in the hundreds per day was about 75k. So if you have about 4000m3 cargo room, one could make about 50k each on at least 400 units, for a profit of 20M. You'd have to buy 'em, ship 'em, and dribble them out in Jita.
Michella is basically station trading in Dodixie. Nothing too amazing or special. We're at the mid week lull, so I'll be making a more concerted effort to liquidate sell orders on the weekend...
PS - I am going to try to figure out the EvE API (via Python) to export my characters' market logs, and make them available, if people are interested. Just a question - what is the best website to put files (eg text files or spreadsheet type data) for public access - Google something or other?
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