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The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.05.13 03:41:00 -
[1]
Edited by: The Breadmaster on 13/05/2010 03:47:03 Anyone have any numbers to throw at this?
Could be useful to know realistically how widespread the insurance exchange really is. This would seem to be relevent to the upcoming changes.
I haven't really seen anyone toss up any figures on how many detonations are really occuring. Most likely it's simply that this information is proprietary... but is there an indirect method to come to a conclusion?
Thanks.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.13 03:46:00 -
[2]
Originally by: The Breadmaster Thanks. Flame on.
Is this some sort of new internet thingey for children to play with? >Text< >More Text< Let the flames beginI was, for a moment, going to try to seriously discuss your topic. However since it is apparent that you are specifically looking for trolling and flaming I'm just going to rate you at 1/10 on the flame bait scale and move on to better, and brighter, posters.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.05.13 03:51:00 -
[3]
Actually, I don't really know what the kids are doing. But edited that part of the post off, thanks for the clue.
I would hate this to be regarded as anything less than a legitimate discussion.
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mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.05.13 04:11:00 -
[4]
Sorry, I don't have figures for you, but it's much bigger than many people imagine. I was just one player, and I was blowing up hundreds of BSs a week. I've also been in contact with people doing insanely large operations, 100s of billions worth from 1 guy and a few suppliers every month. I'd say at least 25% of all minerals are dumped into insurance fraud.
25%-50% of all minerals going to frraud is my educated guess, but there are probably people with hard numbers, I'd imagine an you can get a somewhat solid information extrapolated from the market graphs.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.05.13 04:11:00 -
[5]
Hundreds, maybe thousands a day when the prices are right. It comes down to how much you can stand to grind bs into station guns for hours on end.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.05.13 04:33:00 -
[6]
As an insurance exchanger, what was the favored hull to do this with?
I presume BS.. so Raven? Or just any old BS is fine or did you have many diff bpo's at the ready based on the mineral availability?
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.05.13 04:46:00 -
[7]
Too many assumptions. Mineral distribution differs across bs, so have a look at the material requirements of bpos.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.13 05:21:00 -
[8]
I would be loathe to offer any figures however I can say that I loaned out a few of my battleship bpo's to friends so that they could keep up with "insurance" demand(s).
And in case you are wondering, no I made nothing off of the deal. I won't judge someone else's methods of isk making however I do restrain from personally being involved in anything ... dodgy.
Personal choice, not an ethical crusade though.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
Lorek Kelden
Minmatar The Minmatar Defense Project
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Posted - 2010.05.13 05:25:00 -
[9]
OK, if fraud was so rampant then you would see epic ship destruction a crossed the board. I just looked and "Ships destroyed in the last 24 hours" did not show epic ship destruction. If this was the mainstay of current wealth you would see higher numbers. i did the math and you don't make any substantial profit from insurance fraud. if you have the minerals you'll make more money from just selling them then you will by taking time out and making a ship then blowing it up.
May the Spirit of New Eden shine brightly on your path. |
Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.05.13 06:37:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Lorek Kelden if you have the minerals you'll make more money from just selling them then you will by taking time out and making a ship then blowing it up.
Insurance Exchange only becomes a viable business when the price of the minerals to build a ship drops below something like 70% of the insured value of that ship. So the reason you don't see much Insurance Exchange happening at the moment is that it's not worth doing right now.
That should be a clue to folks that a drop in the value of insurance isn't really going to impact the market as much as people simply not supplying the minerals when they drop too far in value. Cosmoray did an experiment where he used hundreds of billions of units of minerals to manufacture ships and blow them up, and managed to have an impact on the Jita market that was smaller than the normal variation of the market, even though he wiped out Pyerite stocks at one point.
After the patch, I expect Insurance Exchange will still be possible due to variations in the mineral market - if one happens upon a brief period of massive oversupply of eg: Nocxium which brings the prices down, one could take advantage of the lowered "mineral basket" price to build space ships, insure them, and then blow them up.
But as you've observed, when the mineral basket costs too much there will be no profit from self-destructing a ship built from those minerals, so noone will engage in Insurance Exchange.
[Aussie players: join channels ANZAC] |
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The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.05.13 06:38:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Lorek Kelden OK, if fraud was so rampant then you would see epic ship destruction a crossed the board. I just looked and "Ships destroyed in the last 24 hours" did not show epic ship destruction. If this was the mainstay of current wealth you would see higher numbers. i did the math and you don't make any substantial profit from insurance fraud. if you have the minerals you'll make more money from just selling them then you will by taking time out and making a ship then blowing it up.
I think the ships destroyed figures for empire might be a decent benchmark to look at provided you are able to subtract out the the legitimate fireworks. It shouldn't be too difficult to track locations where this is being done on a regular basis... of course I assuming that the map statistic does include self destructs.
And the math on cost vs destruct doesnt necessarily follow all situations where insurance is being used to get trade minerals for isk. Some players cannot be bothered to deal with market window trading while employing mining bots, for example.
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Chaos Dreams
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Posted - 2010.05.13 06:42:00 -
[12]
I suspect for most people fraud wasn't a constant thing, it was an alternative means of making ISK when mineral prices were too deflated. I know there were a couple pretty huge operations around Nov/Dec. There's probably some people doing it regularly but for most I don't think it's a constant for everyone.
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Sugar Jugs
Juggalicious
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Posted - 2010.05.13 07:01:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Lorek Kelden OK, if fraud was so rampant then you would see epic ship destruction a crossed the board. I just looked and "Ships destroyed in the last 24 hours" did not show epic ship destruction. If this was the mainstay of current wealth you would see higher numbers. i did the math and you don't make any substantial profit from insurance fraud. if you have the minerals you'll make more money from just selling them then you will by taking time out and making a ship then blowing it up.
Using Jita sell price minerals, you cannot make a profit with insurance fraud? Quit the game mate. Srsly.
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Leonard Harvey
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Posted - 2010.05.13 07:11:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Sugar Jugs
Using Jita sell price minerals, you cannot make a profit with insurance fraud? Quit the game mate. Srsly.
Jita prices are not the only prices in-game, admittedly a large portion but not the only price. I'm sure if you were savvy enough you could strike up a deal with some of the macro miners / afk miners that only use it as a steady source of income to keep the cost under the 70% bar and they benefit by having a guaranteed outlet for thier minerals/ore.
This way you could keep production away from the main hubs and have yourself a pretty little party making ISK.
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Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
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Posted - 2010.05.13 07:59:00 -
[15]
Originally by: The Breadmaster As an insurance exchanger, what was the favored hull to do this with?
I presume BS.. so Raven? Or just any old BS is fine or did you have many diff bpo's at the ready based on the mineral availability?
I think Amarr battleships were en vogue because they delivered good salvage on top of the insurance payout.
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mechtech
SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2010.05.13 08:58:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
Originally by: The Breadmaster As an insurance exchanger, what was the favored hull to do this with?
I presume BS.. so Raven? Or just any old BS is fine or did you have many diff bpo's at the ready based on the mineral availability?
I think Amarr battleships were en vogue because they delivered good salvage on top of the insurance payout.
First it was Abaddons, then Rokhs became profitable, and I have no idea where it is now.
Oh, and insurance fraud really only affects the low end minerals, forgot to mention that (kind of obvious).
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.05.13 08:59:00 -
[17]
Abaddon's and Rokh's are best for IER.
No real profits in it at present after logistics. The real profits were in September - December 09 near the last patch. The profit per ship was in excess of 10M ISK for some time.
I built and sold over 13,000 ships for self destruction but it was a grind doing the mineral logistics. Wouldn't do it again in hurry.
My purchasing didn't even threaten prices at Jita. Pyerite was shortest commodity, and I cleared Jita of it 5 times (only for a few hours each time at best).
Devs clearly didn't like the effort of everyone in 4Q 2009, and have now moved insurance.
If (a big IF) the new insurance system works as CCP intends so there is no IER, then it will be fun watching mineral prices. It will be a bumpy ride, as no one really knows for sure how much of the market is used for IER.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.05.13 09:08:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
Originally by: The Breadmaster As an insurance exchanger, what was the favored hull to do this with?
I presume BS.. so Raven? Or just any old BS is fine or did you have many diff bpo's at the ready based on the mineral availability?
I think Amarr battleships were en vogue because they delivered good salvage on top of the insurance payout.
During the time I was doing it Rokhs and Abaddons topped the list for profit per unit. However, during the last phase I was involved in (I stopped completely about 6-8 weeks ago) Apocalypses provided the best % return, albeit with the pain of having to pop more ships than if you focussed on Tier 3. Armageddons also offered the best Tier 1 profits. Ravens were ok but substantially less profitable than Apocs. Hyperions were, on mineral prices alone, significantly worse than Baddons and Rokhs but once the BPC prices for the latter two became wildly inflated this bought Hyps back in to play. Minmatar ships offered, in my experience, the lowest profits at all tiers. My guess, based on the changes to BPC prices, is that the relative quantities destroyed were broadly in line with their profitability rankings. As to total destroyed, I have no idea. Cosmo and Lui Kai both claimed c. 10k units per month at their peak, although given Lui's recent scam I have to question whether his figures were true or just paving the way for a cash grab. I have no reason not to believe Cosmo. Personally I was popping 200 a day at my peak but only kept this up for about 2 weeks. Longer term figures were 70-100 a day, depending on the tier mix (70 if all tier 3, rising to 100-110 if all tier 2).
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Power Sauce
Kenzzoku
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Posted - 2010.05.13 10:45:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton I think Amarr battleships were en vogue because they delivered good salvage on top of the insurance payout.
The salvage is pretty terrible and not worth enough to put effort into collecting.
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2010.05.13 12:23:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Power Sauce
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton I think Amarr battleships were en vogue because they delivered good salvage on top of the insurance payout.
The salvage is pretty terrible and not worth enough to put effort into collecting.
You haven't done much salvaging have you? I can get about 50m average of salvage per 100 Amarr BS
Store | Get SRS |
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Gunnanmon
Gallente The Scope
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Posted - 2010.05.13 12:38:00 -
[21]
Originally by: The Breadmaster How much "fraud" is there?
Quite a bit. Any more accuracy would be complete speculation.
/me goes back to gonad scratching. Signature locked for discussing moderation. Navigator
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Capt Fossil
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.05.13 17:23:00 -
[22]
I am still blowing up BS's...for a few more days. I make a weekly trip to Jita for highends which I have bought on buy orders there. I buy and haul all the lowends locally. Been at it since November...made a couple of iskies....not to mention hangers full of shiny ships and mods.
Not a big op by others standards, only 150 to 200 Tier 2 BS's per week. But I am certainly the largest mineral buyer/consumer in my region and when my buy orders disappear in a couple of days it will make a significant impact in my region.
Multiply me times 100 and I predict a significant impact on Jita high ends also.
I have supported 8 accounts for these past months (unemployed in RL, really the only way I could keep playing) and have a pretty sizeable investment nest egg now. It has been a serious grind though.
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The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.05.13 17:45:00 -
[23]
Based on what I have read here, this activity ceased to be widespread near the beginning of 2010.
I would think that without this mechanism of removing minerals from the game it would serve to depress mineral prices year to year for tech 1. Don't read this as mineral prices will fall, but is CCP doing something to offset the negative impact here?
There would already seem to be a downward trend for all tech 1 minerals with exception to those heavily speculated on thanks to dev post concerning reprocess/loot changes.
Consider that the daily trade volume of BS hulls in Jita is a mere ~750/day. I would contend that far more were being destoryed per day for insurance ISK during Q4 of 2009. Will the loot changes really compete with this and what caused the minerals to fall to low enough levels to allow for the insurance exchange to take place at all?
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2010.05.13 17:55:00 -
[24]
Originally by: The Breadmaster Consider that the daily trade volume of BS hulls in Jita is a mere ~750/day.
I like your topic and the trend it is taking but your "evidence" is, at best, anecdotal. The number you present is not for Jita exclusively, it is for the entire Forge region. There are a variety of reason that number is where it is at: 1 - Resale/Flipping 2 - Mission Runner Turnover 3 - 0.0 Resupply Now, from my understanding of interacting with people doing this on "scale", it is far more profitable & efficient to do internal manufacture and destroy product than it is to acquire from the market. (BTW the people I loaned bpo's to were supplying, and gouging, the bpc market instead of actually doing the insurance thing.) Just another $0.02.
Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame. |
The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.05.13 19:22:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: The Breadmaster Consider that the daily trade volume of BS hulls in Jita is a mere ~750/day.
I like your topic and the trend it is taking but your "evidence" is, at best, anecdotal. The number you present is not for Jita exclusively, it is for the entire Forge region. There are a variety of reason that number is where it is at: 1 - Resale/Flipping 2 - Mission Runner Turnover 3 - 0.0 Resupply Now, from my understanding of interacting with people doing this on "scale", it is far more profitable & efficient to do internal manufacture and destroy product than it is to acquire from the market. (BTW the people I loaned bpo's to were supplying, and gouging, the bpc market instead of actually doing the insurance thing.) Just another $0.02.
I agree that the daily trade volumes shown in the market window are a composite of many different activities which just happen to concern a ship hull changing hands and thus a liberal estimate of actual consumer/end-user sales.
It's certinally reasonable for a insurance trader to build his own hulls for efficiency, but he may still tap the market for the lesser minerals- those which net the least isk per hour of mining. Unless, of course, he has alts and/or players behind him for this purpose... but would it still be sustainable in that case? Personally I think it a strech that under no circumstances he buy from any hub.
I fully realize all this is just an exercise in logical reasoning... I just want to go a little futher with it based on what folks think they know was going on.
They took a similar approach to tweaking the tech 3 cruisers... which now are really not worth me building anymore. A year ago the fullerene prices were in freefall. I'm convinced that they stopped trying to tamper the prices for tech 3 down lower for fear of more builders shutting down. I recall a 300M price point mentioned at one point (this was to include hull and subs). Today it looks like their compromise is an insurance buff. But who can really know what's in their mind...
I tend to think CCP wants the cost of the tech 1 hulls to fall to a price point more reasonable for a fresh out-of-the-box player to afford. And the current basket price may not necessarily reflect this.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.05.13 20:12:00 -
[26]
When fraud is done on a large scale you stay at one place, bring the minerals in and produce your ships.
Moving ships is very time consuming, and buying ships at Jita is never worth it.
The simple reason that BS sales are only 750 a day is because of contracts. When I was producing 300+ a day I would run out of capital in 2 days if I didn't sell the ships.
I was able to keep turning my stock as I was selling bulk BS's at 2M ISK under IER via private contracts. A few good customers were taking 50 a day off of me for destruction.
IER when done at the very high end (100's of units), the mineral price has to be at least 6-7M ISK under IER to make a profit. Mass logistics (Red Frog ftw), mass market purchases, mass ship sales (under IER) need to be done quickly and require a lot of contacts.
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Krathos Morpheus
Legion Infernal
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Posted - 2010.05.14 08:03:00 -
[27]
Originally by: The Breadmaster They took a similar approach to tweaking the tech 3 cruisers... A year ago the prices were in freefall. I'm convinced that they stopped trying to tamper the prices for tech 3 down any lower for fear of more builders shutting down. I recall a 300M price point mentioned at one point which was to include hull and subs. Today it looks like their compromise is an insurance buff accompanied by a nerf to tech 1 insurance.
From the preliminary notes for this expansion: "The waste factor for all Tech III blueprint copies has been changed to 0."
I think that ccp is pushing for lowering the pvp floor price to involve more people on fighting, and for that is going to remove the floor price on t1 ships and introduce a passive flow of money (Planet Interaction) to encourage more people moving to pvp thanks to the lower loses and less grinding time that it will require. It will be all good if it works and more ships are destroyed to compensate for the unlimited demand that insurance provided under a certain price.
The question is not how much fraud was committed, but how much supply was being hold by the unlimited demand and how much of that supply will be cut by the drop tables changes.
EVEwatch Sidebar soon "It is the unofficial force ù the Jita irregulars. " |
Durente Galaica
Amarr Fortunate Few
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Posted - 2010.05.14 10:01:00 -
[28]
It takes about an hour to insure-fraud 10-15 ships (with salvaging). It takes 2 days to produce that many ships on one factory line. The sweet spot in pricing is about 2 mil below insurance payout. This is where it becomes more profitable to fraud than run lvl 4s.
If you're building for yourself, tier one battleships are the way to go, you can almost build 2 ships for every 1 you would of a tier three.
If you're building to supply others, tier three are the way to go, you provide better salvage to your customers and make a little higher profit for yourself.
Stop it with the nocxium business, it's gonna be a lemon. You're destroying your golden goose here pre patch, minerals are going to plummet. We're getting into the final stretch, and IÆm completely shocked how many of the major manufacturers are utterly clueless about what is happening or how to profit from it. This is the path to take, weÆre entering the home stretch.
1)Self destructed ships donÆt show up in game map as destroyed ships 2)Most heavy frauders are only buying from others when they face their own mineral supply problems 3)Think carefully why prices 5 months ago mineral costs were 10 mil below build cost, and right now theyÆre less than half that. That will give you indication how much fraud has impacted the mineral market, in this æpeacefulÆ period of eve history no less.
ThatÆs it. Take it or leave it.
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