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Aurum Bellator
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Posted - 2010.05.26 13:09:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Aurum Bellator on 26/05/2010 13:11:57 Up to now, running missions was Eve's "Jack-of-all-Trades" class, to-wit: you could earn direct CASH through bounties and rewards. You could earn MINERALS by reprocessing dropped loot. You could earn MODULES through drops. Thus, you could do everything yourself and wouldn't have to depend on anyone else. With the nerf of high mineral-content module drop rates, mission running becomes what it really should be: primarily a source of CASH. If you want minerals, take up mining. If you want modules, take up industry. This evens the playing field by balancing the value of mined minerals and produced goods with ISK earned by mission runners.
So, how do I think this will impact (edit) mineral prices in conjunction with the changes to insurance? Here's how:
1. Price of NOCX and higher skyrockets. Why? You can't get high end minerals in highsec in any kind of reliable quantity after the changes to missions. Thus, highsec production becomes dependent on nulsec mining of arkonor and the like. Megacyte, zydrine, and nocxium goes through the roof.
2. Price of TRIT through MEX remains stagnant. I believe that the effects of insurance changes will be offset by the changes to mission loot tables and reprocessing earnings. Perhaps they drop slightly; perhaps they increase slightly. It all depends on factors that nobody can be certain of except for CCP -- but if a large percentage of minerals were coming from mission reprocessing (as is stated in the devblog) I would bank on prices increasing rather than decreasing. This will be amplified if people begin leaving mission running due to the changes.
3. Price of ISO remains stagnant or increases slightly. Isogen isn't particularly abundant in highsec so I'd expect the price to go up unless people start moving to lowsec to get at the hedbergite and hemorphite you can find there.
4. Price of NOCX thru MEGA skyrockets. This is a no-brainer. Without a source of highsec high end minerals, highsec production once again must rely on nulsec mining to get their minerals. THE WAY IT SHOULD BE! Thus, the 'market' sell order prices go through the roof as volume producers make behind-the-scenes deals with volume high-end minerals miners 'off the books.' The way it used to be back in 2003-2004.
Right now, it isn't practical or efficient to mine in NULSEC or LOWSEC because you can get the exact same stuff in highsec by refining mission loot. These changes brings balance back to the game -- nulsec once again becomes the primary source for noxcium and higher. Thus, prices for these minerals skyrocket because now highsec production depends on nulsec mining --- thereby making it PRACTICAL and EFFICIENT to go to nulsec to mine, because it's the only real place to get the high value minerals! Those who venture out into nulsec to mine high end minerals will now be the high end mineral suppliers for highsec.
ANYWAY this is my guess for what we can expect! I know you 'experts' don't agree, but you are putting SO MUCH into the insurance fraud aspect of things . . . I just don't think it will have that big of an impact.
AUB
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.26 13:21:00 -
[2]
Did you even do a "Price" comparison of mineral consumption at value for the most popular ships.... Like a Raven....
I'll let you correct yourself after you've done this exercise..
Load Excel, Find a Raven make it Perfect ME Take each mineral amount on it's own row. Get the price of each mineral and multiple it out so you have a value of each mineral contributing toward the total value of the ship. You'll notice something.. When you come back to correct your claims I don't expect a thank you.
Amarr for Life |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.05.26 13:43:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Grozen on 26/05/2010 13:43:35 umm no totally wrong.Theres plenty of ice in high sec you just don't know where to look for it.Theres plenty of trit and mex too.Nox as i said before is not used that much in large quantities so going up is not the way for sure.Even if your theory is right for the first few days its inevitable that after 1-2months the supply overcomes the demand and we'll see nox crash as fast as it went up.Only minerals i see going up to pre-dominion levels are zydrine,morphite and megacyte and it will be just for a while 4-5months tops. knowledge is power |
Aurum Bellator
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:10:00 -
[4]
Originally by: SencneS Did you even do a "Price" comparison of mineral consumption at value for the most popular ships.... Like a Raven....
I'll let you correct yourself after you've done this exercise..
Load Excel, Find a Raven make it Perfect ME Take each mineral amount on it's own row. Get the price of each mineral and multiple it out so you have a value of each mineral contributing toward the total value of the ship. You'll notice something.. When you come back to correct your claims I don't expect a thank you.
Well I am probably wrong, I'll grant you that . . . I don't even know what you get out of mining ice. Probably shouldn't have posted this in the first place after being back to the game for a month after being gone for 5 years!
AUB
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:11:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Grozen Only minerals i see going up to pre-dominion levels are zydrine,morphite and megacyte and it will be just for a while 4-5months tops.
I don't even see morphite going up. The only way to get it in highsec is from 1 drone compound. Morphite crashed when Apoc introduced wormholes. WH's are much safe than 0.0, easier logistics (usually 1 or 2 jumps max to highsec), and even in a C1 it is found in insane amounts.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:15:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Grozen Only minerals i see going up to pre-dominion levels are zydrine,morphite and megacyte and it will be just for a while 4-5months tops.
I see Megacyte only due to lowered supply from Alloys. Nothing else is really effected.
CCP added incentives for Zydrine by buffing the low-end minerals in low-sec ores. While the average miner will not venture into low-sec, it's not much of a stretch for low-sec corps/alliances that did mine, to mine even more now. This will naturally increase the supply of Zydrine.
Morphite is not even really effected by the patch, if anything the supply will go down a little as it's possible Drone space becomes less appealing as Trit,Pyer,Mex,Iso all crash due to high-sec supply. The Alloys might not be worth anywhere near the amount they were. This means less people farming them which is where a small but noticeable supply of Morph came from. However, it's main effect is 0.0 ore.
Nocx will be the new roller-coaster, out of everything I predict Noxc will have major market ups and down. It's got just the right amount of supply in my opinion to make it easily manipulatable. I reprocessed over 2mil units of Pyro, Solid Pyro, and that Vis Pyro each. 6Mil units, at perfect Refine and no tax and only got about 100K units. This means Jaspet, Hemorphite, and Hedbergite will become the major suppliers of Noxc, which is where??? You guessed it, Low-sec. Hemorphite being the best supplier for Nocx and only available in low-sec (At least in the old amounts of minerals in ores). This in my opinion is what will make Nocx volatile. It'll be driven up because of lack of supply, when it gets to a point, some low-sec corps will bleed systems dry and dump.
Trit, Pyer, Mex, Isogen are destined to crash and crash hard.
Amarr for Life |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:19:00 -
[7]
Nocx could spike yet the mineral basket will still go way down. A large drop in trit/pye/mex will do the job nicely. With no IER to hold up the basket a general drop is on the cards.
I am still excited to see how much the IER held up mineral prices AND volume.
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Letrange
Minmatar Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:23:00 -
[8]
The problem with this rosy scenario is that you forget that wormhole space is providing a metric tonne of ABC's an hour piped directly into high sec. This, combined with 0.0 over production due to I-hub enhancements results in massive downward pressure on the high ends. Nothing in Tyrannis is removing this downward pressure. The removal of loot will mainly affect pyerite and mexallon so there might be a slight chance they maintain value.
you also need to take into account that there will be a stop to suiciding battleships for insurance isk. If you think that this was a small portion of mineral consumption, then fine, go ahead and bet things will climb. There were a few points in time recently that Jita almost ran out of certain minerals because of this (I forget who but someone was blowing them buy by the thousands at one point). Personally I'm betting that the reduced overall demand combined with the existing downward pressure on the highs will cause across the board drop in mineral prices.
Then you turn around and say "ha but what about towers and stuff". To which I reply that the effect of the new demand for minerals to plow into the capital construction parts will not kick in for at least a month and a half (soonest). So that'll be a month and a half with reduced overall demand during which the prices will fall. It'll take time (and the final removal of the npc tower sell orders) before the new demand will add itself to the overall demand.
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Breaker77
Gallente Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:28:00 -
[9]
Originally by: SencneS This means Jaspet, Hemorphite, and Hedbergite will become the major suppliers of Noxc, which is where??? You guessed it, Low-sec.
All of these can be found in grav sites in highsec as well as in huge amounts in wormholes.
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My Postman
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:34:00 -
[10]
Inb4 you will get "educated" by Akita T.
And if you are that sure that the mineral basket will hold/rise, a few threads below Akita T is searching for ppl willing to bet on this. Go there.
Good luck.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.05.26 14:51:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: SencneS This means Jaspet, Hemorphite, and Hedbergite will become the major suppliers of Noxc, which is where??? You guessed it, Low-sec.
All of these can be found in grav sites in highsec as well as in huge amounts in wormholes.
Yea this i totally forgot about.Grav sites are so common and most people forget that.Imo minerals will try to get up but most likely will float at current lvls. knowledge is power |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.26 15:31:00 -
[12]
Since WH mining and everything WH related is not changing, so it's just business as normal for them. Whatever impact they had before will remain the same after..
The fact that Grav Sites can spawn in high-sec only supports my theory that Zydrine will be declining in value. The time and effort required to find enough Grav sites in order to seriously impact Nocx prices to keep them low or at a steady market would be incredible. Possible, sure, if Explorer Farmers got together with Miners, all over EVE. I still stand by my theory that Nocx will still be the big roller coaster in the new market.
Amarr for Life |
Uppsy Daisy
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Posted - 2010.05.26 16:23:00 -
[13]
As a previous poster said, it's 'Money where your mouth is time!'
Place your bets on Mineral Prices here
Currently we have 21 billion bet for 'down' and about 1 billion for 'up'...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.26 16:24:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Aurum Bellator ANYWAY this is my guess for what we can expect! I know you 'experts' don't agree, but you are putting SO MUCH into the insurance fraud aspect of things . . . I just don't think it will have that big of an impact.
Put your money where your mouth is and double it if you're correct.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.26 16:25:00 -
[15]
Here is my prediction why not :)
Push these numbers into http://eve.grismar.net/ore/ and see how it looks :)
Tritanium ---------- 1.75 +/- 5% (Half current value) Pyerite ------------ 3.5 +/- 5% (Half current value) Mexallon ----------- 35 +/- 10% (Possibly higher, I think this is the next mineral to become pricy) Isogen ------------- 55 +/- 10% (About the same) Nocxium ------------ 200 +/- 25% (Double current value) Zydrine ------------ 1,000 +/- 10% (Lower then current value) Megacyte ----------- 3,150 +/- 5% (More then current value) Morphite ----------- 7,500 +/- 5% (More then current value)
Raven Value (First column is amount, Second is Value in ISK using the above prices)
Tritanium-------7,577,632-----13,260,856 Pyerite---------1,894,802-----6,631,807 Mexallon--------474,675-------16,613,625 Isogen----------118,519-------6,518,545 Nocxium---------29,595--------5,919,000 Zydrine---------706-----------706,000 Megacyte--------2,254---------7,100,100
Total 56,749,933 ISK (This is Perfect ME Price)
Insurance payout will be about 57mil which means insurance will cost about 17.1mil.
Amarr for Life |
Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.05.26 16:33:00 -
[16]
It's a sound argument that you make Aurum. Unfortunately, (and as you may have already realised) it seems based upon incomplete data and is missing a few key components of the overall puzzle.
It's kind of like the otherwise perfectly reasonable people who don't think that climate change is at all due to human factors or those that think evolution is incorrect. They draw seemingly sound logical conclusions based upon incomplete and inaccurate data. It's very easy to fall into this trap and I admit that we may be missing something that will cause mineral prices to go up. General consensus from multiple independent sources is that it will go down though.
We'll soon know for sure, can't wait --------------------------------------
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israus
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Posted - 2010.05.26 17:24:00 -
[17]
problem with all this is while we do have some off the figures involved in whats about to change ie we know roughly where all the minerals in the system came from. what we don't know is the x factor which is where the minerals where being used.
i'm not sure what will happen long term. short term I think we'll see a drop in mineral prices across the board. till the oversupply that was there before is corrected and as people dump the high end minerals back on the market.
long term it is harder to say because its all down to how well balanced the changes are. ccp have taken out a large source of mineral supply to the game. they have added another small sink for those minerals in the pos production.
so ideally if ccp get it right minerals during time of heavy conflict should go up in price. during the lull between allaince wars they should fall down. so if the heavy fighting up north continues prices should rise given the large number of cap ships and BS fleets getting killed.
if they have have got it wrong we'll see a huge drop in prices.
on the note about the wormholes. I don't think mining in wormholes puts a huge supply on the market. refining inside the wormhole you lose a lot of product. so its never going to account for much more then a small percentage of the minerals on the market. |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.05.26 17:54:00 -
[18]
Originally by: israus the x factor
Should also include the fact that people mine because they have nothing else to do or don't know any better. People mined Veld for a LONG TIME even though Scordite was getting a better price. Pyerite went almost up to 8ISK a unit and I flew around belts to see, all the Veld was gone, but the Scordite remained.
I also know someone who right up until down time yesterday out in belt with an Orca and Hulk mining even though he totally believes a crash is coming, when I asked why? he said "I have nothing else to do, and am can't mission run, not enough skills." This guy is rich, building Commandships from multiple BPOs (0 not C) his lab slots are full of copy job for capital ship components, his market orders where updated he literally had nothing else to do. He said it's either this or haul contracts, so I do this because it requires less effort.
I would bet money he is not the only one in that situation. There is reason gangs of people strip belts clean every day even though the same gang running lvl 4 missions would make twice or three times as much. Those are the people that are still going to be in the belts eating veldspar when Trit is under 1 isk a unit. That you can't stop, and that is why for high-sec minerals, supply will always dominate demand. |
Venkul Mul
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.05.26 19:34:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Aurum Bellator
Well I am probably wrong, I'll grant you that . . . I don't even know what you get out of mining ice. Probably shouldn't have posted this in the first place after being back to the game for a month after being gone for 5 years!
AUB
Maybe you should check something that has changed in those 5 years:
NPC buy orders for minerals have been removed
That was what was keeping some minerals prices high so far in the past.
Isogen has been losing value form the day the NPC buy orders were removed. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.26 21:23:00 -
[20]
Originally by: SencneS There is reason gangs of people strip belts clean every day even though the same gang running lvl 4 missions would make twice or three times as much. Those are the people that are still going to be in the belts eating veldspar when Trit is under 1 isk a unit. That you can't stop, and that is why for high-sec minerals, supply will always dominate demand.
In other words, the mineral crash will stop only when highsec mining becomes roughly as profitable as highsec ice mining (but most likely slightly LESS profitable since there are far more mineral-belt systems than ice-belt systems).
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.05.26 22:04:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Akita T In other words, the mineral crash will stop only when highsec mining becomes roughly as profitable as highsec ice mining (but most likely slightly LESS profitable since there are far more mineral-belt systems than ice-belt systems).
The mineral crash will stop when people produce fewer minerals than are consumed. People will currently mine minerals that are worth less than ice, because mining asteroids is far less dangerous than harvesting ice.
[Aussie players: join ANZAC channel] |
Merouk Baas
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.05.26 22:25:00 -
[22]
The mineral crash will never stop. Mining isn't a reactive profession; you mine as you have time, and if the prices are too low now, you stockpile it for later. I do not see asteroids surviving in high-sec belts; nobody is going to go "I'm not going to mine that today, I'm going to let it grow until the market prices are favorable." because someone else will "steal" the rock from them.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.26 22:46:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Merouk Baas The mineral crash will never stop.
It HAS to stop at some time, prices can't go into the negatives If the crash slows down enough to be drowned by the ordinary day-to-day fluctuations it's as good as practically stopped. True, the most likely stopping point will be at a horribly low mining income level, but that's another story
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Rodarine
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Posted - 2010.05.26 23:23:00 -
[24]
Unless there is some NPC subsidizing of mineral sales somewhere we will probably see just how low they will go before the 4th of july.
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Thrasymachus TheSophist
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Posted - 2010.05.27 00:07:00 -
[25]
Perhaps they go back to having asteroids be a less common commodity. Reducing supply would certain bolster prices.
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Merouk Baas
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.05.27 00:13:00 -
[26]
Asteroid regen still depends on how many ships are destroyed, and with it being pointless for people to suicide ships for insurance scams, not many ships will be destroyed. I guess we'll have mineral pricing ups and downs based on the occurrence of major wars between alliances. Which, hmm, the lag out in 0.0 is kinda preventing major battles, so things look pretty bleak.
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Thrasymachus TheSophist
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Posted - 2010.05.27 00:27:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Merouk Baas Asteroid regen still depends on how many ships are destroyed
This is news to me. Can you provide more details?
I thought they just reseeded all asteroid fields during downtime? This was admittedly a brazen assumption ....
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Merouk Baas
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.05.27 00:45:00 -
[28]
I'm going from memory here, so my information may be completely wrong, as you'll see. I don't know if they've changed the system recently.
The roids do respawn during downtime (on certain days), but I always thought that the total amount of ore respawned in the entire EVE universe depends on the number of player ships that have been destroyed in wars.
In any case, the only mention of it that I can find is this 2003 hearsay comment, and my google-fu is failing me at finding the actual dev comment they talk about.
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe SOLODRAKBANSOLODRAKBANSO
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Posted - 2010.05.27 01:49:00 -
[29]
I bought some mex at 5.41 and some zyd at 850.02 today
ya'll missed out
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Aurum Bellator
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Posted - 2010.05.27 07:49:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Aurum Bellator on 27/05/2010 07:51:40 Can someone tell me if the following is true/accurate:
1. ISK is basically the same thing as modules or minerals, just in a different format. I.e., you can "invest" in ISK in the same way that you can "invest" in dollars or euros by changing switching your wealth into minerals and back, depending on whether you are banking on inflation or deflation.
So, in other words, holding lots of isk and little assets is the same thing as betting on deflation; holding lots of assets and little isk is the same thing as betting on inflation.
2. The only two factors that ultimately lead to inflation are:
(a) "sinks" built into the game which result in permanent destruction of wealth, for example a ship gets blown up and valuable modules are destroyed or ;
(b) new players entering the game resulting in existing wealth being demanded by more people (point b is in the same vein that you can expect and are seeing deflation in the U.S. real estate market by virtue that the baby boom generation is a surge flux in the population and created demand in housing which is now disappearing as a younger less populous generation is entering the housing marketplace).
3. If the EVE subscription base stagnates or declines, and this is not countered by greater sinks built into the game, the best you can expect is permanent deflation in prices.
4. CCP is attempting to counter this with the insurance reforms --- little to no payout for capital ship deaths, for example, meaning a huge sink built into the game when you destroy a titan.
Any thoughts?
AUB
EDIT: does anyone know whether or not implementing racial based currencies has ever been discussed, to enable a form of currency trading? I.e., Amarr agents pay you in Amarr currency, and the 'isk' becomes a CONCORD sort of currency . . . I mean this is kindof like LPs except you can't 'buy' and 'sell' LPs. just wondering, might make things somewhat interesting.
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