Pages: [1] 2 :: one page |
|
Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 13:48:00 -
[1]
Whatever the reason, NPC goods prices are climbing and climbing fast. (Silicate glass from 200 sell orders to 1500 buy orders overnight. And I'm talking bulk buy orders, millions of units.)
We can speculate that it's "temporal" and/or that it's a "one-time event", but facts are - someone is willing to pay, like, several times the old price, and buy for actual billions of isk, not just a few units.
Even robotics (that everyone and their dog had) have already climbed to 9k+ from 6k+.
And those orders persist. Maybe not for days, but for hours. So, all those "estimates" that prices will insta-crash once the NPC buy orders are gone are, plain and simple, wrong.
The question that intrigues me: what was estimated less accurate? The size of stockpiles or the length market specualtions can go to?
|
Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:11:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 17/06/2010 14:11:48
If you were sitting on a giant stockpile of NPC goods right now, what would you do?
...
see, you have just answered your own question.
|
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:20:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Vadimik on 17/06/2010 14:21:00
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 17/06/2010 14:11:48
If you were sitting on a giant stockpile of NPC goods right now, what would you do?
...
see, you have just answered your own question.
Except I don't actually have a stockpile of, say, silicate glass. So the actual reason that 1500 PU order was up for an hour+ is not me speculating, but me not having a stockpile.
|
Merouk Baas
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:33:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton If you were sitting on a giant stockpile of NPC goods right now, what would you do?
The answer is "you would make a panic post in MD suggesting that prices are climbing rapidly and everyone should panic and buy your stock."
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:34:00 -
[5]
Its simple supply and demand not everyone managed to stockpile and some people are now starving for npc goods.
They are looking at the market waiting for the speculants to release their stock cheaper so they don't have to get ripped off.
The question is not how much are npc goods worth but who will give up first the hungry pos/producer or the greedy speculant. knowledge is power |
Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:37:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 17/06/2010 14:44:54
Originally by: Vadimik Except I don't actually have a stockpile of, say, silicate glass. So the actual reason that 1500 PU order was up for an hour+ is not me speculating, but me not having a stockpile.
tbh I don't understand that reply, so i am just going to rephrase/explain my question.
I was trying to ask "If you had that giant stockpile would you choose to put it on the market now and crash prices back to pre-PI levels? (edit: or start to liquidate very slowly, only dumping your stock once you see the first signs of prices taking a downturn)" hoping to provoke the answer "Hell no, I wouldn't." leading to the conclusion that we cannot derive any insights on the size of existing stockpiles at the moment.
Everything you can observe at the moment is pure speculation. We don't know yet how supply/demand is going to look like, we don't really know the size of stockpiles but many people on the forums seem to have entered full panic mode (especially with rgds to mechanical parts & robotics), so we have all the ingredients for a nice speculative bubble.
edit: the buy orders are either people late to the party or just cosmetics. I don't think they reflect actual demand for consumption.
|
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:40:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Vadimik on 17/06/2010 14:40:56
Originally by: Merouk Baas
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton If you were sitting on a giant stockpile of NPC goods right now, what would you do?
The answer is "you would make a panic post in MD suggesting that prices are climbing rapidly and everyone should panic and buy your stock."
Well, then noone has those stocks, as no such posts have appeared yet. Oh, and if you look at the actual market data, you will see that, as a matter of fact, prices are climbing. Rapidly (+50% and more a day).
|
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 14:54:00 -
[8]
Quote: edit: the buy orders are either people late to the party or just cosmetics. I don't think they reflect actual demand for consumption.
They may not "reflect actual demand for consumption", but they are the prices you can sell millions of units for, no questions asked, and get out of this fast and with a few billions in profits.
Quote:
many people on the forums seem to have entered full panic mode (especially with rgds to mechanical parts & robotics)
You mean the people who don't have stockpiles of those, right? Cause if those with stockpiles paniced, they would have sold at 150% the old price right now (and crashed the market).
Thus, either everyone with stockpiles have nerves of steel or stockpiles aren't big enough to crash the market.
|
Pestilent Industries
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:01:00 -
[9]
The five NPC POS fuels (which I needed to buy last night for my 50 POSes)that are no longer NPC seeded have risen by a minimum of twice as much as they were before and some of them are five times what they were the day before. I have no idea how much I am going to have to sell my moon materials for now if these price levels keep up. I will be selling my **** for twice as much as it was before, which means tech 2 will cost twice as much as it did before, at least.
|
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:06:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Grozen Its simple supply and demand not everyone managed to stockpile and some people are now starving for npc goods.
They are looking at the market waiting for the speculants to release their stock cheaper so they don't have to get ripped off.
The question is not how much are npc goods worth but who will give up first the hungry pos/producer or the greedy speculant.
Seeing as prices are still climbing even after riching a point were it would be profitable to start selling, we can state that "greedy speculants" are winning (so far). And what intrigues me is: are greedy speculants just that good at it or was the demand from hungry pos/producers underestimated?
|
|
Taxesarebad
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:10:00 -
[11]
hmm, some things are dropping.
|
Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:13:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Vadimik They may not "reflect actual demand for consumption", but they are the prices you can sell millions of units for, no questions asked, and get out of this fast and with a few billions in profits.
Have you tried? How do you know that this is not just a low wallet+margin trading strategy to fuel the bubble?
|
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:17:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Vadimik on 17/06/2010 15:18:48
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
Originally by: Vadimik They may not "reflect actual demand for consumption", but they are the prices you can sell millions of units for, no questions asked, and get out of this fast and with a few billions in profits.
Have you tried? How do you know that this is not just a low wallet+margin trading strategy to fuel the bubble?
What exactly can prevent me from selling to a buy order that has a listed price of XXX PU and big enough volume? Oh, and: I haven't tried cause I don't have stockpiles of those items.
|
Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels HYDRA RELOADED
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:28:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Vadimik What exactly can prevent me from selling to a buy order that has a listed price of XXX PU and big enough volume?
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton a low wallet+margin trading strategy
|
Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente League of Gentlemen
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 15:29:00 -
[15]
New folks: remember For instant rep best option? A random haiku.
Regarding high-sec mining:
Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
|
Lisa Waen
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 16:35:00 -
[16]
How about this as an option: Current price of Processed Materials? Although they are slowly dropping, the cheapest Refined Commod would still cost over 2000isk if you were to buy the Processed Materials and manufacture them yourself. Unless the prices of raw materials significantly drop, I see the former NPC goods climbing to a few to several thou apiece, and Specialized Commods to rise to over 25thou apiece
|
Lisa Waen
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 17:06:00 -
[17]
Consider this: If all Processed Materials were locked at 200isk each, the Manufactured cost of all Refined Commodities would be approximately 3200isk without even considering import/export tariffs, and Specialized Commodities would cost either 21,300isk each or 32,000isk each (depends on whether its a 2 or a 3 source commod). Right now, the market is actually normalizing, but that normalization is being slowed down by the stockpiles that folks are selling. Once those stockpiles are eaten up...
|
Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 17:12:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 17/06/2010 17:13:04
Originally by: Bad Bobby
Originally by: Vadimik What exactly can prevent me from selling to a buy order that has a listed price of XXX PU and big enough volume?
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton a low wallet+margin trading strategy
lol.
some explanation:
Margin Trading allows you to file buy orders without having to put the whole ISK value of the buy order into escrow (thus allowing you to "overbook" your wallet/tie up less capital in buy orders for slow moving items). Once the buy order gets filled the remaining ISK is taken from your wallet. Doing normal trading I will usually have about 3x the value of my wallet balance in open buy orders.
If your wallet does not hold enough ISK to serve the buy order, your order gets canceled and the person trying to sell to it just gets to see an error message. Engineering such a situation is as easy as moving all your liquid ISK to a different wallet division or to an alt after creating the buy orders.
This mechanic is commonly used to support price manipulations (by creating the illusion of a higher price floor) or to gracefully exit a manipulation that has run its course (create a few "fake" buy orders at unreasonably high prices, wait until you are outbid with a real one and then dump your stock on that unlucky lemming).
|
Vadimik
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 17:29:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton
some explanation: ...
You still have to put at least 23% of isk on escrow. So those orders are pretty "real", though actual volumes may be only 23% of listed ones.
|
Mme Pinkerton
United Engineering Services
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 18:05:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Mme Pinkerton on 17/06/2010 18:14:30
Originally by: Vadimik You still have to put at least 23% of isk on escrow. So those orders are pretty "real", though actual volumes may be only 23% of listed ones.
Maybe I forgot to mention one little step in my description?
edit (to prevent myself from completely derailing this thread): assume you have a buy order for 1000 units of a certain item at 1 ISK/item. that's 230 ISK in escrow and 770 ISK "to cover". I sell 100 units to your buy order. How much ISK do you now have in escrow, how much ISK is left to cover?
you see?
|
|
TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 18:22:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Vadimik
The question that intrigues me: what was estimated less accurate? The size of stockpiles or the length market specualtions can go to?
Lots of stockpiles no doubt (We decided on a one year supply, just to be really sure (well lazy really ))
However, there's *ALOT* of towers out there.
The majority of people only running a few towers, if even that.
Not to insult anyone, but those people are generally less... "informed". Or - Simply don't have the resources (manpower generally for PI) to do much about it.
As such it's those people who (generally) haven't stocked up. And they are imo the ones driving the market, and will be for awhile.
Quite a few of them might decide to shut down completely due to it not being profitable for them any longer.
Thus less demand.
And prices will start to settle down again (and PI will presumably start to pick up as it gets more worhtwhile)
This could be awhile though, as quite a few towers runs on one month cycles etc.
BIG Lottery |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 18:59:00 -
[22]
Originally by: TornSoul Quite a few of them might decide to shut down completely due to it not being profitable for them any longer.
Thus less demand.
A can see a lot of consolidation going on for people who had towers deployed and where using them but not to capacity.. We went from four to three, I can imagine a lot of offline towers cluttering up moons in high-sec for example. We're not going to undeploy our tower we're offlineing but we're removing the mods.
However, I as sitting in SCC last night and some one posted this interesting little bit. I took note because I checked and found it was true.
One years worth of a Large POS, Fuels in "PI" Items is this.
Noble Gas - 32,850,000 Noble Metals - 129,648,000 Heavy Metals - 77,088,000 Base Metals - 87,600,000 Aqueous Liquids - 84,096,000 Ionic Solutions - 84,096,000 Non-CS Crystals - 35,040,000
Here is that in the next level of Production
Oxygen - 219,000 Precious Metals - 864,320 Toxic Metals - 513,910 Reactive Metals - 584,000 Water - 560,640 Electrolytes - 560,640 Chiral Structures - 233,600
Assuming the P1 sells for say 200 ISK a unit, That's 707,222,000 ISK for 12 months of POS Fuel. Not including import/export costs.
At 200 ISK a unit, that's 59mil per month in "NPC" items. In it's "Raw" form. At 10 ISK a unit, that's 5,304,180,000 ISK LOL That would be 442mil ISK a month. This is why I believe Raw Materials are currently WAY WAY over priced at the moment. Where are around 200 ISK a unit for P1 stuff seems about right.
Even at 2ISK a unit of raw materials is 1,060,836,000 ISK. 88.5mil ISK a month, which might be OK I guess. If that is the case then P1 will cost around 300 ISK a unit.
One thing is for sure, if raw materials hang around 10 isk, a LOT of POSes are going to go offline.
Amarr for Life |
TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 19:18:00 -
[23]
Originally by: SencneS
In it's "Raw" form. At 10 ISK a unit, that's 5,304,180,000 ISK LOL That would be 442mil ISK a month. This is why I believe Raw Materials are currently WAY WAY over priced at the moment. Where are around 200 ISK a unit for P1 stuff seems about right.
Even at 2ISK a unit of raw materials is 1,060,836,000 ISK. 88.5mil ISK a month, which might be OK I guess. If that is the case then P1 will cost around 300 ISK a unit.
One thing is for sure, if raw materials hang around 10 isk, a LOT of POSes are going to go offline.
People exporting raws (R0) should be shot. Or is it those actually buying R0 that should be shot.
I get confused over that sometimes.
Also, don't go shooting them, they've *already* been shot, in the foot, by them self.
BIG Lottery |
Seminole Sun
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 19:37:00 -
[24]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: SencneS
In it's "Raw" form. At 10 ISK a unit, that's 5,304,180,000 ISK LOL That would be 442mil ISK a month. This is why I believe Raw Materials are currently WAY WAY over priced at the moment. Where are around 200 ISK a unit for P1 stuff seems about right.
Even at 2ISK a unit of raw materials is 1,060,836,000 ISK. 88.5mil ISK a month, which might be OK I guess. If that is the case then P1 will cost around 300 ISK a unit.
One thing is for sure, if raw materials hang around 10 isk, a LOT of POSes are going to go offline.
People exporting raws (R0) should be shot. Or is it those actually buying R0 that should be shot.
I get confused over that sometimes.
Also, don't go shooting them, they've *already* been shot, in the foot, by them self.
Agreed. P1 items are going to form the true floor as there's a logical reason to export them.
The ONLY R0 items that might maintain a market (and that's a big "if") is for the three "special ones" (Reactive Gases, Felsic Magma and Autotrophs. You'd have to do the math but at a certain price point, it might make sense, if you have a really good hotspot, to sacrifice a processor for an extractor on a dedicated R0 planet. But those are a corner case. Things like Aqueous Liquids should just never get traded.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 19:39:00 -
[25]
Edited by: SencneS on 17/06/2010 19:40:19
Originally by: TornSoul People exporting raws (R0) should be shot.
I can actually see it as a "Well I have what I need, but I can put up an extractor to harvest, this but I can't process it."
That's about the only valid reason I can see for people selling Raw Minerals just to maximum Planet and they have no other use for anything else. If they can have 2 extractors then it should be 1 extractor and 1 basic processor no doubt about it.
Anything else is pretty unacceptable. However I have purchased Raw Materials extremely cheap 0.75 ISK a unit to supplement my extraction on the planet. But then again the price was too good to ignore.
Amarr for Life |
Barakkus
Caelestis Iudicium
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 19:40:00 -
[26]
Like every MMO, you will end up with a flood of player produced products at some point, if a player can make it, you can be guarenteed the supply will outpace the demand and force prices down to stupid levels, it's just a matter of how long it will take.
Originally by: CCP Dropbear
rofl
edit: ah crap, dev account. Oh well, official rofl at you sir.
|
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 19:57:00 -
[27]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: SencneS
In it's "Raw" form. At 10 ISK a unit, that's 5,304,180,000 ISK LOL That would be 442mil ISK a month. This is why I believe Raw Materials are currently WAY WAY over priced at the moment. Where are around 200 ISK a unit for P1 stuff seems about right.
Even at 2ISK a unit of raw materials is 1,060,836,000 ISK. 88.5mil ISK a month, which might be OK I guess. If that is the case then P1 will cost around 300 ISK a unit.
One thing is for sure, if raw materials hang around 10 isk, a LOT of POSes are going to go offline.
People exporting raws (R0) should be shot. Or is it those actually buying R0 that should be shot.
QFT.
PI Raw Insanity Cost Projection Spreadsheet
|
Darthion Illys
Amarr Tyrans d'Or Umbrella Chemical Inc
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 20:02:00 -
[28]
Using 200 isk / P1 unit... which I find quite reasonable, looking at the POS fuel costs (not to mention that PI produced items will be used for T2 manufacturing as well), we're looking at the following very basic presumed "stabilized" prices:
Mechanical Parts - About 3.2k + profit margin / u. Robotics - About 22k + profit margin / u.
So... yeah... I expect Mechanical Parts to be at least 4k/u, and I wouldn't be surprised, at all, if Robotics will go 25k+.
Just a matter of time before Robotics is properly bought out.
|
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 20:32:00 -
[29]
Its been days since the removal of the npc orders but i've not seen a single purchase in the new prices and mind ya i'm checking few times per day. knowledge is power |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2010.06.17 20:49:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/06/2010 20:55:08
Yo, dawg, so I hear you like all kinds of price estimates so I put some very-long-term price estimates in your normal price estimates !
TL;DR and heavy guesstimations of "just moderate freetard prevalence" vs "I'm in this just for the money": P1s : 400-600 or ~2k P2s : 8k-12k or ~30k P3s : 60k-80k or ~220k
The lowball-ish but probably realistic estimates would drag hourly large tower fuel cost from ~230k to ~490k (which would not be THAT tragic overall, a doubling of fuel costs), the gruesome one up to ~970k (now that would indeed hurt). It's won't be happening overnight though, as everybody who gives a damn already heavily stockpiled on fuels.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
|
|
|
|
|
Pages: [1] 2 :: one page |
First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |