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Marshiro
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Posted - 2010.07.23 19:57:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Marshiro on 23/07/2010 20:06:07 Referring to: http://www.eve-search.com/thread/1327813/page/1
I can't imagine regular flip contract trading being able to grab that much volume, and mission runners are a dispersed group that is probably difficult to collectively bargain with. As such, the method is a complete mystery to me. That said, I probably don't even know a fraction of the relevant variables for this activity. Now CNRs rising from ~300m to ~520m ish over the time period helps, but not so much the volume.
So any ideas? Now F9OEX have said he will probably share some of his secrets, but I'd like to know how MD thinks of this.
Estimate: At 20T over 3 years, we need profits of some 500b /month. At 10% margins that'd be 5T turnover per month and 160 billion turnover per day, or 400 CNR per day? Something must be very wrong with my math or some of my assumptions.
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Robacz
Essence Enterprises
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Posted - 2010.07.23 20:50:00 -
[2]
Like someone said in the other thread: "PROOF OR GTFO".
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Mr LaForge
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Posted - 2010.07.23 21:11:00 -
[3]
He does alot of other things too. He has alot of T2 BPOs, he does 3rd party services which net him a nice profit. He can do alot of stuff and I assume that like Chribba has about 8 accounts to do stuff with. For all we know he may have 8 computers to play eve with.
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VaKuR vAkR
Haters Gonna Hate
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Posted - 2010.07.24 00:09:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Mr LaForge He does alot of other things too. He has alot of T2 BPOs, he does 3rd party services which net him a nice profit. He can do alot of stuff and I assume that like Chribba has about 8 accounts to do stuff with. For all we know he may have 8 computers to play eve with.
8 accounts at once? K m8.
Back to topic: A manipulation of the CNR market is an incredibly big thing. Maybe he had help from a few friends, i doubt someone can almost double the price of CNRs on his own. Especially since there's a relative stable supply of those ships (LP stores) and they most likely aren't lost that often. After all their main use is for PVE. I'm often in Low/Nullsec and if I see ships like Armageddon Navy Issues or Megathron Navy Issues they are rarely accompanied by a CNR. They aren't used for PVP as often as other comparable BSs, and therefore they don't have to be replaced that often. I could be wrong, correct me if you want. Also preventing others from pricecutting your contracts is extremely ISK consuming due to the sheer costs of one CNR (~335mil before the price skyrocketed).
Even with 8 accounts it's nearly impossible to amass a wallet big enough to pull such a thing. Remember, that guy probably has a job like normal people, and therefore won't be able to play EVE 10 hours a day. Also using 8 accounts at once effectively is almost impossible (at least for me, my Alt is stationtrading and i check prices whenever i'm travelling larger distances or wait for something, other than that I basically never make use of it). So unless someone has some magic tools that help him (i.e. stuff that would violate the EULA) it's very unlikely he makes so much ISK/day to buy every CNR that pricecuts him.
TL;DR: I think he wasn't doing it on his own.
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company ISK Six
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Posted - 2010.07.24 00:16:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Marshiro
Estimate: At 20T over 3 years, we need profits of some 500b /month. At 10% margins that'd be 5T turnover per month and 160 billion turnover per day, or 400 CNR per day? Something must be very wrong with my math or some of my assumptions.
If you do a little research yourself (I know, right?) you'll see that not that long ago he posted in MD about his rise from < 1 T to about 3ish T in worth over almost three years. Assuming that is true, you could probably infer that 20 T is a pulled-out-of-the-ass number. This is the internet after all =P ______________________________
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F90OEX
F9X WE FORM VOLTRON
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Posted - 2010.07.24 02:14:00 -
[6]
Between this thread and the other thread, I don't know where to even start.
Marshiro is assuming my margins are around 10%, this is no where near close, if that was the case I would not even bother, not worth the effort or the time.
There is so much misinformation, people think they know how I play Eve and what I do. Tbh there is probably only about 3-4 know how the CNR business really works.
There are some long term traders who where around when I started who have a good idea and who have bought many of me, but as I have mentioned on the forums before, traders come and go, I have helped, showed and encouraged people in whatever direction they go in this game. People wanted proof I have given it, but I'm not going to keep repeating myself like a parrot anytime a fly by night alt who thinks they know more about my CNR business then I do.
I do not care, if people like Selene D'Celeste or whoever again assume know how much is in my wallet.
At the moment as I mentioned in the other thread a Investment of 500-600bil investment will see a 1-1.5T profit per CNR Bulk. The great thing about it is, I can run as many or as little as I please. It's not like I am buying a CNR of contracts and reselling it .
Few things,
I don't support China Farmers nor have anything to do with them. I do not have 8 accounts lol I do invest in other opportunities. I do not account share nor does anyone have access to any of my chars. NEVER
All I can tell you is I have been doing this nearly every day for the last 3+ years.
Do I have secrets in Eve that make this work? LOL sure do.
But I have no reason to lie or gain anything from it by telling you something that is not true. By this stage I have everything I am interested within Eve.
You want in and share the wealth, I'll offer something happen soon. As I have promised.
Will it be secured ? Yes, I will probably use Chribba assuming he is interested.
If you have a legitimate question about the CNR business I'd be more then happy to answer it. Any trolling or stupid comments I won't be replying.
But after this has run its course, I won't be replying to any other thread regarding this, for the reasons mentioned above.
Consider this the official FAQ of F9s CNRs
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Boma Airaken
Harlock's Vindicta Aggressive Dissonance
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Posted - 2010.07.24 03:03:00 -
[7]
Magnets?!?!?!?!
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VaKuR vAkR
Haters Gonna Hate
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Posted - 2010.07.24 03:16:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Boma Airaken Magnets?!?!?!?!
how do they work
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.07.24 03:30:00 -
[9]
Originally by: F90OEX
I don't support China Farmers nor have anything to do with them.
Yeah, for anyone who actually cares, do an F900EX eve-search with this in mind. Check for when he started bragging ~2 years ago.
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company ISK Six
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Posted - 2010.07.24 03:49:00 -
[10]
Originally by: F90OEX
I do not care, if people like Selene D'Celeste or whoever again assume know how much is in my wallet.
The point was less that I know or care how much is in your wallet, and more that people could do their own research and draw their own conclusions (as I have myself) instead taking what others say at face value. No offense intended to you, of course =P ______________________________
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.07.24 03:49:00 -
[11]
Looks like I care the most. Now before I launch into this, let me say that it's my belief that trading with anyone at anytime in EVE is completely legitimate. I think Macros are a necessary and natural outgrowth of having junk, repetitive PVE gameplay.
With that said, let's look at F900EX's prior and current stance regarding his contacts for CNR acquisition.
PRIOR STANCE
Originally by: F900EX
Not too long after there was one particular char ( 2man corp) filling nearly all my CNR Wtb contracts. Soon after he Eve-mailed me and asked If I was interested another 4-5 CNR's. I think at time we settled on a price I told him I could only afford 3 CNR's but if he wanted he could contract the rest and before the next day I would accept the rest of the contracts. ... With buying these CNR's again I have always kept records/evemails and any convo's so I always had a history trail. Just in case CCP came knocking on my door.
source: http://eve-search.com/thread/858769/page/1
CURRENT STANCE
Originally by: F900EX
I don't support China Farmers nor have anything to do with them.
I say kudos to F900EX for finding a problem -- people running buttloads of L4s, hauling missions, etc through "various means," but not wanting to manually unload tens of millions of LPs -- and marrying it to a solution: providing quick LP liquidity for a 25-35% cut. Double kudos for finding the problem in the middle of an enormous revenue stream: the CNR. But what's with the recent PR kick? You've moved from a position of "what I do is legitimate in CCP's eyes" (and this is true, CCP does not penalize any reasonable market transaction, and have stated that they overlook all but the most blatant (10 billion isk for 1 trit) RMT activities) to "I never help the macros ever."
Why the sudden change in PR stance?
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Sturmwolke
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Posted - 2010.07.24 04:02:00 -
[12]
It's leveraging fat wallet against high volume LP productions. Pretty similar in concept as to a coffee/cocoa buyer buying direct from farms, prices go up the more hands it passes. The production part is possibly a sprawling network of consistent producers who don't mind the well below 1000isk/LP (closer to 500isk/LP), and is more than happy to accomodate regular orders that come with prompt payments.
Assuming these are intelligent and consistent producers, you'd almost have to question their dedication. I'd doubt CCP would raise its hands against any legitimate trades, regardless of the source.
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F90OEX
F9X WE FORM VOLTRON
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Posted - 2010.07.24 04:50:00 -
[13]
No PR stunt, I guess it came from of the other thread which I replied ,the OP of this thread got curious and here we are.
I get a lot of mails asking about it and I guess this would be a good place to reply to some answers.
Here is the thing that most people don't get, I don't play or have any interest in MMOs or even trading, I play Eve for Pvping I like the excitement of a good fight. I don't get involved in any kind of Eve politics again do not have the interest.
My interest's are in Call of Duty, MOH and Battlefield type games, I love EA's Need for speed series, with the new NFS World showing lots of promise since your racing other people on the map in real time, or been chased by cops
The CNR trading was not intentional, it just was a way of making easy ISK to support my eve game play and just evolved from there.
Also 2 years is a long time in Eve, many things have changed including the CNR market and how it's worked.
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Marshiro
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Posted - 2010.07.24 07:05:00 -
[14]
Sometimes I really wonder about mission runners. If they work hard enough to make a large amount of LP, finding a decent conversion should be a good idea, even for chinese farmers..... I have of course seen casual folks blow their lp in low return items, but one would think operations capable of producing a significant number of CNR could use a spreadsheet. I wonder just what the trader offers to make it a reasonable deal....
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zitellona
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Posted - 2010.07.24 09:42:00 -
[15]
First F9 lends ISK and RL money to chinese farmers wannabe. He helps them to pay their account subscription. I never saw a chinese with a mastercard =D. Now the chinese farmer gets his CNR for free. Since he cant run immediately lvl4s, he must join another chinese farmer to unlock lvl4s. When the chinese farmer has enough LP for the CNR, F9 helps him to buy it. Now, F9 is the god of the CNR market, and the chinese is in a deep debit with F9. The chinese farmer gives the CNR and ISK he got running missions to F9 FOR FREE for months.
Repeat.
If there are 50 (maybe more) chinese farmers, it equals to 10-15 CNRs a day (if not more). Thats approx 4-5 billion a day.
And remember, the majority of the chinese people is stupid and poor.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.24 09:52:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Marshiro
Estimate: At 20T over 3 years, we need profits of some 500b /month. At 10% margins that'd be 5T turnover per month and 160 billion turnover per day, or 400 CNR per day? Something must be very wrong with my math or some of my assumptions.
His margin seems to be in the 100-200% range, rather than 10%.
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Sazkyen
State War Academy
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:00:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Sazkyen on 24/07/2010 11:03:36 Well. Many people say the guy is a fraud. He could be for all I know.
Obviously, if he can make this happen (let's assume this for a sec) then there has to be some method to simply get CNRs. Let's say that nobody knows that you can actually receive a CNR in some twisted way (it's nothing more than an assumption) and the guy is taking advantage of it. Obviously not a cheat else CCP would have intervened already.
Here are some guesses (that very probably are just that, guesses, and have nothing to do with reality):
- you can receive a CNR not very long after char creation but people have not realized that
- you can get the free CNR BPOs in a way other than bumping up your Caldari standing via a long and tedious work (I'm sure everybody knows that you CAN get a free BPO it's just requires very high standing)
A scenario:
The guy hired some mission runners who bump up his chars' Caldari standing. When he hits the required standing, he collects the free BPOs (as anyone can).
If you want a twist, here's another idea:
What if you can get the BPO many times? E.g., by first reaching the required standing, collecting the BPO, dropping slightly below the required standing and then going above it once again and collect the BPO once again. Over and over again.
I doubt many people would have tested this. It would make some sense from a programmer's point of view. You trigger an event every time you hit the standing and you are entitled to a free BPO.
Other than this, I can not think of any feasible way of getting so many CNRs.
He said something like "I can make so much money due to the way CNRs are regulated" or something like that.
I am not aware of any method to get a CNR other than hitting the critical standing and then collecting the free BPO.
-SIG- Ship comparison |
clixoras
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:10:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Sazkyen Edited by: Sazkyen on 24/07/2010 11:03:36 Well. Many people say the guy is a fraud. He could be for all I know.
Obviously, if he can make this happen (let's assume this for a sec) then there has to be some method to simply get CNRs. Let's say that nobody knows that you can actually receive a CNR in some twisted way (it's nothing more than an assumption) and the guy is taking advantage of it. Obviously not a cheat else CCP would have intervened already.
First of all, i only have respect for working a plan so rigirously for a couple of years. IMO it only deserves respect.
But you need a steady supply (of LP), the business model doesnt allow searching to much for new or incidental Mission runners so i can only assume he works with steady suppliers. It does make you wonder who churns out that kind of LP.
Also it's a know mechanism to 'farm' chars with FW LP to get standings up really high and collect the juicy items. Could be related, could not be related.
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Sazkyen
State War Academy
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:12:00 -
[19]
Originally by: clixoras
Originally by: Sazkyen Edited by: Sazkyen on 24/07/2010 11:03:36 Well. Many people say the guy is a fraud. He could be for all I know.
Obviously, if he can make this happen (let's assume this for a sec) then there has to be some method to simply get CNRs. Let's say that nobody knows that you can actually receive a CNR in some twisted way (it's nothing more than an assumption) and the guy is taking advantage of it. Obviously not a cheat else CCP would have intervened already.
First of all, i only have respect for working a plan so rigirously for a couple of years. IMO it only deserves respect.
But you need a steady supply (of LP), the business model doesnt allow searching to much for new or incidental Mission runners so i can only assume he works with steady suppliers. It does make you wonder who churns out that kind of LP.
Also it's a know mechanism to 'farm' chars with FW LP to get standings up really high and collect the juicy items. Could be related, could not be related.
Let's not forget the free BPO every player is entitled to with a very high Caldari standing. -SIG- Ship comparison |
oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:13:00 -
[20]
We know CNR's dont appear from thin air (or is that the secret? :P), and he has stated that he did not buy them from open market contracts. So that only leaves the option of getting them straight from the source, missions runners. There are 6.000 CNR's we know of (5.000 sold mentioned in the other thread, plus the 1000 that were sold in that same thread), if i run some quick math that's about 50 people playing EVE 3 hours a day for 3 years. I get bored with missions after about 13 seconds, but 3 hours a day.. that can be done.
Although the CNR suppliers seem to be dispersed, it wont suprise me if only a few (relatively) are the driving force behind the regular supply of CNR's. I guess F90OEX made some kind of great deal with the right people.
I'm not so much interested in how he got the money or the 6.000 ravens, what i'd like to know is how you keep the original suppliers happy with their end of the deal, when F90OEX re-sells their ravens with a huge margin. I mean, people are greedy, they're not just going to give you that margin. You need to provide value to those suppliers, why do they need F90OEX?
And what i simply dont understand is how you invest 600b isk into the market and get a triple return. Either you're buying very cheap, or prices tripled (which didnt happen). Sounds too good to be true. x |
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:28:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 24/07/2010 11:34:59
I think the elevated price is a result of holding back a significant proportion of the stock. i.e. selling two thirds of the supply, but at a sufficient elevated price that the cost of all three is covered.
The total volume suggests this is likely to have been happening for quite a while, and the financial burden of carrying so much stock is starting to hurt.
The surplus stock cannot be dumped on the market without crashing the price. So instead the exit strategy is to dumped on a third parties, who are eyeing up the elevated price with greed in their eyes clouding their judgement.
If this is pulled off, it would be a major market coup, and plaudits well deserved. However the flaw in this exist strategy is its sheer scale which was bound to raise eye brows and further scrutiny & enquiry. I think a major price crash is the most likely outcome.
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Sazkyen
State War Academy
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:30:00 -
[22]
We know CNR's dont appear from thin air (or is that the secret? :P), and he has stated that he did not buy them from open market contracts. So that only leaves the option of getting them straight from the source, missions runners. There are 6.000 CNR's we know of (5.000 sold mentioned in the other thread, plus the 1000 that were sold in that same thread), if i run some quick math that's about 50 people playing EVE 3 hours a day for 3 years. I get bored with missions after about 13 seconds, but 3 hours a day.. that can be done.
Although the CNR suppliers seem to be dispersed, it wont suprise me if only a few (relatively) are the driving force behind the regular supply of CNR's. I guess F90OEX made some kind of great deal with the right people.
I'm not so much interested in how he got the money or the 6.000 ravens, what i'd like to know is how you keep the original suppliers happy with their end of the deal, when F90OEX re-sells their ravens with a huge margin. I mean, people are greedy, they're not just going to give you that margin. You need to provide value to those suppliers, why do they need F90OEX?
And what i simply dont understand is how you invest 600b isk into the market and get a triple return. Either you're buying very cheap, or prices tripled (which didnt happen). Sounds too good to be true.
Edit:
Originally by: Sazkyen
Let's not forget the free BPO every player is entitled to with a very high Caldari standing.
Assuming you can only get the free BPC once per character, you would need to get three characters up to those standings within a month, get the free BPC, then delete the characters and start over. I guess that would provide the 200-300% margin, but how do you get three characters such massive standings in one month? Thats 10 days per character to get what.. 9.95 caldari faction standings?
What if you can get it several times?
What if you can get a reset on the BPO handout?
E.g., char transfer or char dropping back below 9.95 and then going over it again, or prhaps by switching corps dunno. -SIG- Ship comparison |
oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:32:00 -
[23]
Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:34:13 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:33:20 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:32:38
Originally by: Sazkyen
What if you can get it several times?
What if you can get a reset on the BPO handout?
E.g., char transfer or char dropping back below 9.95 and then going over it again, or prhaps by switching corps dunno.
Because then it would be an exploit and fixed by CCP. They will never allow a player to inject trillions of ISK into the economic system by using a simple trick. x |
zitellona
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Posted - 2010.07.24 11:40:00 -
[24]
Originally by: oniplE Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:34:13 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:33:20 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:32:38
Originally by: Sazkyen
What if you can get it several times?
What if you can get a reset on the BPO handout?
E.g., char transfer or char dropping back below 9.95 and then going over it again, or prhaps by switching corps dunno.
Because then it would be an exploit and fixed by CCP. They will never allow a player to inject trillions of ISK into the economic system by using a simple trick.
In fact it isnt injecting ISK but ships.
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oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.07.24 12:02:00 -
[25]
Originally by: zitellona
Originally by: oniplE Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:34:13 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:33:20 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:32:38
Originally by: Sazkyen
What if you can get it several times?
What if you can get a reset on the BPO handout?
E.g., char transfer or char dropping back below 9.95 and then going over it again, or prhaps by switching corps dunno.
Because then it would be an exploit and fixed by CCP. They will never allow a player to inject trillions of ISK into the economic system by using a simple trick.
In fact it isnt injecting ISK but ships.
You're right. I still dont think CCP would allow it though. x |
zitellona
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Posted - 2010.07.24 12:02:00 -
[26]
Originally by: oniplE
Originally by: zitellona
Originally by: oniplE Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:34:13 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:33:20 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:32:38
Originally by: Sazkyen
What if you can get it several times?
What if you can get a reset on the BPO handout?
E.g., char transfer or char dropping back below 9.95 and then going over it again, or prhaps by switching corps dunno.
Because then it would be an exploit and fixed by CCP. They will never allow a player to inject trillions of ISK into the economic system by using a simple trick.
In fact it isnt injecting ISK but ships.
You're right. I still dont think CCP would allow it though.
Moon minerals...
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oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.07.24 12:15:00 -
[27]
Originally by: zitellona
Originally by: oniplE
Originally by: zitellona
Originally by: oniplE Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:34:13 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:33:20 Edited by: oniplE on 24/07/2010 11:32:38
Because then it would be an exploit and fixed by CCP. They will never allow a player to inject trillions of ISK into the economic system by using a simple trick.
In fact it isnt injecting ISK but ships.
You're right. I still dont think CCP would allow it though.
Moon minerals...
I guess you're referring to the moon mining exploit. It took CCP some time, but the exploit was fixed and the offenders banned. If i understand correctly, F90OEX was petitioned several times and CCP found nothing. x |
Sazkyen
State War Academy
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Posted - 2010.07.24 13:42:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Sazkyen on 24/07/2010 13:45:22
Sure, he could have a bunch of people working for him, farming LP all the time for, say, 500 ISK/LP.But who the heck would do that?
We could go higher than 500 ISK/LP but then the great business is not THAT great anymore as the guy says.
In fact, in such a scenario, he'd have to pay about 300 ISK/LP. Now who would be willing to work their asses off for 300 ISK/LP? Some naive players? Perhaps. But for 3 years?
Nah.
There's something else here. OR the business is not that fascinating as implied.
He receives BPO or crafted CNR some way that is not a bannable offence.
OR... :) ... he's a freaking rich guy who invested a hundred-thousand dollar in the game, sold a few thousand PLEXes and bought off the CNR stock. :))) -SIG- Ship comparison |
zitellona
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Posted - 2010.07.24 13:55:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Sazkyen
In fact, in such a scenario, he'd have to pay about 300 ISK/LP. Now who would be willing to work their asses off for 300 ISK/LP? Some naive players? Perhaps. But for 3 years?
Chinese people are rich, they wont ever do that.
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Sazkyen
State War Academy
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Posted - 2010.07.24 13:57:00 -
[30]
Originally by: zitellona
Originally by: Sazkyen
In fact, in such a scenario, he'd have to pay about 300 ISK/LP. Now who would be willing to work their asses off for 300 ISK/LP? Some naive players? Perhaps. But for 3 years?
Chinese people are rich, they wont ever do that.
What's this Chinese stuff? Chinese ppl have their own server. Or are you suggesting the guy pays them off with RL money? -SIG- Ship comparison |
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