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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.08.30 18:57:00 -
[151]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 30/08/2010 18:58:05
Originally by: PinkFish
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Grozen everything is going down and a lot of people are cashing in i can never believe at the current trend we're going to reach 20k stable gs/coolant/ w/e.
I am analyzing coolant's price trend right now, at
Linkage
Should be obvious what'll happen next.
It's not as obvious as you'd like it to be. Yes there is the obvious "head and shoulders" pattern in the graph. However, there is an actual increasing trend-line underneath the graph that is totally hidden by manipulations thus far. That line represents both the inherent changes in supply and the ever decreasing number of people who are willing to dedicate hours a day to producing coolant in volume to "cash out" on the spike. I don't think we will know much of anything about coolant until the rebound.
I could be dead wrong, though. I really enjoyed your thread and I'm the first to admit that I don't know what I don't know.
You can see the underlying new trend right now, look at the necklines better. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.08.30 19:09:00 -
[152]
Gs/coolant won't rise in the next 2years.After watching the trend i can see there's too much room for these to go down still. knowledge is power |
Bosswoman
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Posted - 2010.08.30 20:11:00 -
[153]
Originally by: Grozen Gs/coolant won't rise in the next 2years.After watching the trend i can see there's too much room for these to go down still.
That's an entirely baseless fact, least of which because you can't compare Coolant to Guidance Systems; the pre-Tyrannis demand for GS was 500k, whereas it was past 2m for Coolant; most coolant stocks have either been dumped, speculated on, or used by now and the current stockpiles fall far below the 75m mark, if Jita is anything to go buy; finally, the stockpiles of GS exceed 350m, these are triple-checked numbers that are easily verified on multiple spreadsheets, that's over 2 years of daily demand in stockpiles alone, not considering what people are making. A terrible comparison.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2010.08.30 20:59:00 -
[154]
It is cheaper to make Coolant than to buy from market. Stockpiles at 100M or 50M or whatever, make Coolant, sell and you make profit. So, burn or not your brain with tech. analysis, it will go DOWN. Try thinking fundamental and add 1+1. You were stock market manipulated succesfully and thats the whole story.
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Berikath
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Posted - 2010.08.30 21:54:00 -
[155]
Originally by: MMarlon It is cheaper to make Coolant than to buy from market. Stockpiles at 100M or 50M or whatever, make Coolant, sell and you make profit. So, burn or not your brain with tech. analysis, it will go DOWN. Try thinking fundamental and add 1+1. You were stock market manipulated succesfully and thats the whole story.
By that logic, all P1s should end up selling for about 20 ISK/u, P2s @ about 50, P3s @ 3-500, and P4s at about 60,000.
They wont.
@ 20k a unit, yes, you could pretty much guarantee that prices would go down. Now, not so much. If I were to throw my 2c in for a guess (without having run the numbers), I would guess that prices will stabilize somewhere around 10k/u- a little bit higher than most P2s, but in the same range.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2010.08.30 22:16:00 -
[156]
I think we calculated somewhere that Pi miner will have good price for sell at 99 isk/pu for P1, with moderate skills per alt and paying for another account Plex as profit. More than reasonable.
But, to quote myself from a post about less than month ago:
"However, about Coolant-Mech parts comparison, there is not a single solid argument to justify 17k/pu Coolant vs 5k/pu Mech Parts. Either Coolant is pumped hard up or Mech Parts very underpriced; giving overall POS consumption goes to the Mech Parts favor. Ya, Coolant will dump, Mech Parts hold, imo, for my stock."
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Allana Baselle
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Posted - 2010.08.31 06:58:00 -
[157]
Originally by: Allana Baselle There are reports of regional shortages as speculators buy up remaining reserves. Coolant has performed well during the recent downturn in the PI sector and has seen more than a 60% increase over the last 5 trading days in Jita. Certain market professionals predict even higher prices as production has fallen and demand has remained consistent. Other investors believe the increase is only temporary since production will surely increase in the near future and since more independent moon operations have decided to go off-line as rising fuel prices has made an increasing number of moon materials unprofitable to mine.
Update: The summer coolant supply crisis has officially ended. Civilization as we know it has been saved.
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2010.08.31 14:43:00 -
[158]
Originally by: Grozen Gs/coolant won't rise in the next 2years.After watching the trend i can see there's too much room for these to go down still.
lol at watching trends to determine what will happen instead of just using your brain. Not debating GS/coolant values, but looking at a pretty graph to determine what will happen is a pretty terrible way to get in early and make good isk.
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Major Stardust
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Posted - 2010.09.01 01:17:00 -
[159]
And bounced! Lol, ripping off ahead, again.
hahahah
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2010.09.01 01:29:00 -
[160]
I'm not a fan of a tech. analysis, but this was easy predictable using standard methods. Dropped too fast, in simple language, dead cat bounced. Giving very quick 5-15% profit for the smart trader. Unfortunatly, low volume not giving much absolute gain.
I hope Coolant will continue sideways, but my numbers show that will go down.
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skye orionis
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Posted - 2010.09.30 19:37:00 -
[161]
Just noticed that myself and some others are seeing slightly higher production rates on our colonies producing coolant since the new patch. PRice of coolant is set to drop further.
Then again, maybe this will be offset by the people reporting their stock of materials in storage have evaporated (didn't you know that many fluids evaporate in a vacuum if not correctly stored?).
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Kal XL
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Posted - 2010.09.30 23:45:00 -
[162]
From what I've seen with my planets, it looks more like they reset the resources to their original values, basically resetting the depletion. My planets with lots of harvesters stacked real close saw a significant increase, but my other planets saw only minimal increases in harvesting amounts. My guess would be that the price might drop a bit as people make the wrong assumption about a permanent boost, then it would probably equalize again to a roughly pre-patch price. Probably a bit lower since they did make PI itself less time consuming.
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