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ShadowandLight
Amarr Doom Guard Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2010.08.10 21:40:00 -
[1]
Doc E's reports do nothing but confuse me even more.
Here is what I know as facts:
- Eve Population is constantly rising with ( we assume ) new players ( not alts )
- More players = more producers ( mining, ratting etc )
- ^^ Should entail cheaper goods right?
- However, alot of produced goods have gone up in pricing ( T2 ships for example, which will get worse in PI ). I would expect that more people producing, even if there is more demand for said products would drive DOWN the price of goods.
- CCP then does stuff that baffles my mind. Instead of fighting DEFLATION ( more people producing more goods driving down the price of goods ) they do crazy stuff ( imo ) like introduce PI which will cause T2 ships to increase...
- Alchemy as far as I know is worthless for replacing limited access moon goo.
Overall, the economy of EVE just keeps getting stranger. ------- "The Lord loosed upon them his fierce anger All of his fury and rage. He dispatched against them a band of Avenging Angels" - The Scriptures, Book II, Apocalypse 10:1
Hoist the Colors! |
Sintracel
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Posted - 2010.08.10 21:44:00 -
[2]
yeah you are missing a vital component to the equation.
If you are assuming increased population then you would also get increased demand for goods. That would offset the increase in producers.
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ShadowandLight
Amarr Doom Guard Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2010.08.10 21:46:00 -
[3]
and competition of the increased producers should keep pricing level? ------- "The Lord loosed upon them his fierce anger All of his fury and rage. He dispatched against them a band of Avenging Angels" - The Scriptures, Book II, Apocalypse 10:1
Hoist the Colors! |
KaarBaak
Minmatar Hell's Librarians Imperium Directive
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Posted - 2010.08.10 21:57:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Sintracel yeah you are missing a vital component to the equation.
If you are assuming increased population then you would also get increased demand for goods. That would offset the increase in producers.
I think though that a lot of these new players are staying in "the shallow end of the pool." T2 production is "hard." New players are constantly complaining about the difficulty "learning to Eve" and T2 production is not something they even consider.
If the Eve production is thought of as a pyramid, with the most experienced players that are able to get the resources together to get into T2 production at near the top, I think that that pyramid is getting much wider at the base than it is growing taller.
KB
convoluted analogy FTW
=vinur allra manna
MetaGaming |
Berikath
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Posted - 2010.08.10 22:00:00 -
[5]
Originally by: ShadowandLight and competition of the increased producers should keep pricing level?
Assuming 1 player is equivalent to another, yes.
However, new players consume more and produce less. It takes quite a while to amass the capital and skills required to go into large-scale production. Also, not every old player is interested in making stuff, and since the introduction of PLEXes, not every new player is broke. I am also not an economist, but I'm pretty sure this all interacts to make supply and demand in eve..... ready? COMPLICATED! :)
If you really want a headache, try and figure out how a growing playerbase will affect T2 prices, since there are very finite amounts of moon goo available ;)
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Nikolai Kondratiev
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Posted - 2010.08.10 22:16:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Berikath
Originally by: ShadowandLight and competition of the increased producers should keep pricing level?
Assuming 1 player is equivalent to another, yes.
However, new players consume more and produce less. It takes quite a while to amass the capital and skills required to go into large-scale production. Also, not every old player is interested in making stuff, and since the introduction of PLEXes, not every new player is broke. I am also not an economist, but I'm pretty sure this all interacts to make supply and demand in eve..... ready? COMPLICATED! :)
If you really want a headache, try and figure out how a growing playerbase will affect T2 prices, since there are very finite amounts of moon goo available ;)
But are they even all moon mined ? And I guess CCP just needs a few clicks to activate moon mining in W-space (even if they limit it to C5-C6 to maintain a good risk vs reward ratio - i.e your POS being wtfpwnable by cap ships) to give supply a huge boost should the playerbase increase "too much"
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Berikath
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Posted - 2010.08.10 22:31:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Berikath on 10/08/2010 22:31:19
Originally by: Nikolai Kondratiev
Originally by: Berikath
Originally by: ShadowandLight and competition of the increased producers should keep pricing level?
Assuming 1 player is equivalent to another, yes.
However, new players consume more and produce less. It takes quite a while to amass the capital and skills required to go into large-scale production. Also, not every old player is interested in making stuff, and since the introduction of PLEXes, not every new player is broke. I am also not an economist, but I'm pretty sure this all interacts to make supply and demand in eve..... ready? COMPLICATED! :)
If you really want a headache, try and figure out how a growing playerbase will affect T2 prices, since there are very finite amounts of moon goo available ;)
But are they even all moon mined ? And I guess CCP just needs a few clicks to activate moon mining in W-space (even if they limit it to C5-C6 to maintain a good risk vs reward ratio - i.e your POS being wtfpwnable by cap ships) to give supply a huge boost should the playerbase increase "too much"
1. To the very best of my knowledge, there have never been any sources of moon goo other than moons. You can convert one type of moon goo to another, but you still gotta get goo from the moons.
2. CCP can also just add more k-space systems if/when it comes to that. That doesn't mean you can't still get a headache trying to figure it out :)
*edit*
Also, still very willing to buy P1s from you, shadow :)
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Antihrist Pripravnik
4S Corporation Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2010.08.10 23:23:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik on 10/08/2010 23:23:23
Originally by: ShadowandLight Overall, the economy of EVE just keeps getting stranger.
At least it's not strange to someone.
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RaWBLooD
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Posted - 2010.08.10 23:23:00 -
[9]
Supply and demand.
If 1 million more units are made, and the demand goes up 1 million units. Net effect is 0. So what do you thing has occurred if the prices went up and there are many new players? miners-you can: switch, rob, wardec, nerf, scam them, buy below market, pirate them on their way to sell. mining < trading, ratting, manufacturing from market bought minerals,they still wont go away |
ResearchBunny Beatrix
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Posted - 2010.08.10 23:27:00 -
[10]
Originally by: RaWBLooD Supply and demand.
If 1 million more units are made, and the demand goes up 1 million units. Net effect is 0. So what do you thing has occurred if the prices went up and there are many new players?
Inflation bro.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.08.11 00:28:00 -
[11]
Erm t2 mods going up in price?Obv this is other game we're talking about since t2mods are so vastly oversupplied atm its not even funny.Everyday thousands of new mods enter the market and its real fighting out there who sells first.I only see one thing in the pricing and its : down down down. knowledge is power |
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs Zulu People
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Posted - 2010.08.11 02:09:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Grozen Erm t2 mods going up in price?Obv this is other game we're talking about since t2mods are so vastly oversupplied atm its not even funny.Everyday thousands of new mods enter the market and its real fighting out there who sells first.I only see one thing in the pricing and its : down down down.
this.
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.08.11 03:50:00 -
[13]
More newbies more than likely equals more missioners.
More missions and ratting by everyone = more ISK injection, and inflation.
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Julius Rigel
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Posted - 2010.08.11 05:27:00 -
[14]
Time to train a new account to fly an Enyo: At least 20 days.
Time to train an account to make profit off of building an Enyo: At least 40 days.
That's assuming you'll be buying the BPCs and producing the ships one at a time, it doesn't factor in things like invention, research, or even the time it takes to actually build the ship itself.
I may be missing something, but it seems to me that it takes twice as long for the new players you talk about to crank out the ships that the other half of the new players want to get killed in.
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Gabriel Virtus
hirr
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Posted - 2010.08.11 09:21:00 -
[15]
Expanding new player base means there will be more demand for items than their will be producers. Most t2 items are produced by experienced players, this pool doesn't seem to expand much over time, while the users of t2 goods seem to expand with every new account.
The eve player base probably resembles something like a pyramid at the moment for most items, especially those that you mentioned, which require more experience and skill to produce. New accounts will be able to use all these items within a few months.
Therefore the supply is actually remaining relatively constance ( think moon goo and other contanst stream inputs for t2 or t3 items )and an expanding player base that uses the items they produce.
The price levels should not remain the same, but increase for more t2 items and other items that take more skill/capital to produce. This can also be seen in the plumetting prices for most meta items as expanding new player base start running and salvaging missions.
Oh economics, how fickle you can be.
-GV
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Sjugar
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Posted - 2010.08.11 10:45:00 -
[16]
The key point you're missing here is that there is also a constant influx of experienced players, these are players the were previously nooby and over time moved up. You make it sound like there's an influx of new players all the time who never evolve.
If there was a sudden rise of players however, a higher then normal, that's when supply and demand will get out of balance.
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Thumiel Zaul
Black Hawk Security Axiom Alliance
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Posted - 2010.08.11 11:47:00 -
[17]
Originally by: RaWBLooD Edited by: RaWBLooD on 11/08/2010 00:28:35 Supply and demand.
If 1 million more units are made, and the demand goes up 1 million units. Net effect is 0. So what do you think has occurred if the prices went up and there are many new players?
Assuming of course demand was initially at 0 in which case it's highly unlikely any one would bother to make those million units. If demand was at 1,000,000 and production was at 1,000,000 then an increase in supply and demand would net at 0. But this would also have the effect of cancelling out any price fluctuations based purely on supply/demand.
It's usually that production lags behind increasing demand so prices rise intially then level off as production reaches the level of demand, then of course the opposite is true with falling demand.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.11 14:10:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Antihrist Pripravnik
Originally by: ShadowandLight Overall, the economy of EVE just keeps getting stranger.
At least it's not strange to someone.
That would have probably been me Linkage
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2010.08.11 14:32:00 -
[19]
It's pretty simple why more population doesn't decrease prices.
I don't mine anywhere near the amount of materials I use in ships I fly. Since I fly pretty much T2 ships only I have no Moon so my usage is 100% supplied by other people. I have no doubt a massive part of EVE's population is exactly the same.
That said, EVE also suffers from people blindly mining stuff because thats what they do, mine Veldspare when Pyrite was 7 ISK a unit is a classic example of the stupid leading the stupid. Belt after belt Scordite remained untouched while all the Veld was gone! Even though they could have made 3-4 times more ISK if they just mined Scord, they didn't.
So while the logic is there to say, prices should always go up, EVE is full of people that just don't know what is valuable.
Amarr for Life |
Antihrist Pripravnik
4S Corporation Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2010.08.11 20:52:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Antihrist Pripravnik At least it's not strange to someone.
I helped too Linkage P.S. The one you circled is only a tiny bit me (I was still slowly purchasing as opposed to a massive buy-in), but I am the largest contribution of the November 30 spike. There are detailed transaction logs in that thread I linked on the last page if you're curious about exact dates and amounts.
I should definitely spend more time on Market Discussion section of the forum
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.12 14:06:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Akita T on 12/08/2010 14:11:29
Originally by: Antihrist Pripravnik I should definitely spend more time on Market Discussion section of the forum
You probably should 37+ page thread about it. And it's still alive Link to post first announcing the likely upcoming Technetium supremacy. Posted - 2009.11.03 08:49:00 - roughly one month before the actual changes
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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kaos hayabusa
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Posted - 2010.08.12 20:32:00 -
[22]
Edited by: kaos hayabusa on 12/08/2010 20:32:53 What is T2?
Tech 2, right?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.12 20:40:00 -
[23]
Originally by: kaos hayabusa What is T2 ? Tech 2, right?
Right. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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So Sensational
GREY COUNCIL Nulli Secunda
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Posted - 2010.08.12 23:54:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 12/08/2010 14:28:52
Originally by: Antihrist Pripravnik I should definitely spend more time on Market Discussion section of the forum
You probably should 37+ page thread about it. And it's still alive Link to post first announcing the likely upcoming Technetium supremacy. Posted - 2009.11.03 08:49:00 - roughly one month before the actual changes
Oh, BTW, that was a second thread looking at everything in more detail. There was another thread a few weeks prior (a much shorter one, defunct now) that only analyzed a couple of ships and drew similar conclusions, just not quite that precise. So in practice, people would have had nearly two months to slowly stockpile stuff (like I did, I slowly gathered funds two months before the patch, and by the time I had that massive technetium buy-in, I had actually SOLD quite a few of the items I purchased in the previous months).
I wish we were best buddies IRL, and then like, when we're sitting on the porch and sharing a beer you say "Oh hey man, there's this thing coming up in EVE, I'm going to make a lot of money, you want in?" and I'd be like "**** yeah, here's a billion (I know but I'm a poor loser, I think in small digits), turn it into gold" and then we'd high five each other and keep drinking our beer.
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Antihrist Pripravnik
4S Corporation Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2010.08.13 01:31:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Akita T
37+ page thread about it. And it's still alive Link to post first announcing the likely upcoming Technetium supremacy. Posted - 2009.11.03 08:49:00 - roughly one month before the actual changes
There goes my free time
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.13 02:24:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Claire Voyant ; Posted - 01/12/2009 14:54:00
Originally by: Akita T BTW, I have almost 70 Bil invested in technetium now, but that number was barely over 9 Bil before I "got angry" and liquidated some other stocks to "buy out" the technetium market between 14:00 and 15:00 server time just before the patch.
Dear God, this is a sign of madness. Any sane person would have dumped everything right before the patch and taken their profits. If you are right, you are a crazy genius. If you are wrong, I pity your poor investors.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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