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Kiar Verok
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Posted - 2010.08.19 00:34:00 -
[1]
I've been inventing frigates and have been getting between 0 and 20% success rates. I have read a few of the websites about it. I've used the chance calculator and that says it should be 37%, which I'm sure you agree is a massive difference. This is not based on a handful of runs, rather over a hundred.
My skills are both 5's in the datacore skills and 4 in the encryption skill.
Every source seems to tell me that other skills do not have an impact, but... The inventing character is an Alt so he has minimum skills in all but the above.
Any ideas guys? My last job got 1 hit out of 9 jobs. This is just a waste of datacores - I may as well just sell them...
Any help would be appreciated.
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Llambda
Space Llama Industries
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Posted - 2010.08.19 00:37:00 -
[2]
That's really weird, because 8/9 of my last frigate invention jobs succeeded.
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Kaltar Bok
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Posted - 2010.08.19 00:54:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Kaltar Bok on 19/08/2010 00:54:58
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Kiar Verok
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Posted - 2010.08.19 00:57:00 -
[4]
My hacking is at 2 (minimum requirement) and nuclear physics is at 3. Could this have an effect? What have other people got in these skills?
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deesull
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Posted - 2010.08.19 03:33:00 -
[5]
a wise man once told me it isnt worth it until all of the skills for tech II invention are at lvl 5..
2 cents
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Makko Gray
Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult
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Posted - 2010.08.19 07:59:00 -
[6]
Let's assume your inventing Amarr frigates - if you have the Amarr encryption skill at 4, Amarr Starship Engineering at 5 and Mechanical Engineering at 5 then your chance of a successful invention is around 37%. The other skills you mention have no affect on your invention job.
If you're hitting less than 37% then you're just unlucky but carry on and statistically your likely to have better success at some point.
Last time I looked at frigate invention the datacore cost per successful outcome was just over a million isk. For cruiser invention your in the order of 10 million isk datacore cost per successful outcome give or take. That's was based on my chances and the cost of Gallente datacores a little while back but it's worth calculating so you can take this into account when deciding what ships are worth inventing.
Other than that just hang on in there, invention is a marathon not a sprint and you will have difficult periods, you just have to ride them out.
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Makko Gray
Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult
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Posted - 2010.08.19 08:10:00 -
[7]
Originally by: deesull a wise man once told me it isnt worth it until all of the skills for tech II invention are at lvl 5..
2 cents
Not really true - if for this example we say all datacores cost 100k isk then each frig invention attempt cost 400k
With all skills at level 5 the chance of success is: 37.8% With all skills at level 4 the chance of success is: 36.2%
Cost per invention job with all skills at 5: 1,058,000 Cost per invention job with all skills at 4: 1,104,000
So actually the saving you make long terms isn't always that much and with the profit on building many frigs before factoring in the cost of invention sitting at around 6-8 mil you still can get a good profit once you take that into account.
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Macvombat
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Posted - 2010.08.19 11:15:00 -
[8]
in theory, when working with percentage chances, you could have a 95% chance of success and still not get one single job successful out of a thousands upon thousands of jobs.. as unlikely as it may seem, it is not impossible.
think of it as rolling a dice with the numbers 0-100 (1-100? w/e) every number below 37 makes you win, every number above makes you loose.. as said above, in theory you could roll a number higher than 37 an infinite amount of times in a row
The Mac has arrived |
RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.08.19 11:31:00 -
[9]
>I've been inventing frigates and have been getting between 0 and 20% success rates. I have read a few of the websites about it. I've used the chance calculator and that says it should be 37%, which I'm sure you agree is a massive difference. This is not based on a handful of runs, rather over a hundred.
no - what is the result? between 0 and 20% is not a result, over a hundred what rate are you getting ?
>My skills are both 5's in the datacore skills and 4 in the encryption skill. 37%
>Every source seems to tell me that other skills do not have an impact, but... The inventing character is an Alt so he has minimum skills in all but the above.
so the character that puts the job in has 5/5/4 on those skills - if so then still 37%
>Any ideas guys? My last job got 1 hit out of 9 jobs. This is just a waste of datacores - I may as well just sell them...
yes but what is your rate over all your jobs 11% on one batch is no use data
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Yith Za'bolazhi
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Posted - 2010.08.19 13:40:00 -
[10]
http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php?decryptor=none&base_chance=40&skill_encryption=4&skill_datacore_1=4&skill_datacore_2=4&base_item=metalevel2&precalculated_chance=hidden
invention calculator
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Kiar Verok
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Posted - 2010.08.20 03:20:00 -
[11]
In response to your queries about how many successes I've had: over roughly a hundred jobs I've been getting between 0% and 20% success rate. I've not been recording it but believe me I would remember if I ever got more. So that's probably about 15 successes out of the hundred jobs. I'm aware of the laws of probability and of course I 'could' just be unlucky... The likelihood is though that over all those jobs at least a few of the batches would come out more favorably, but none have - so I think something is wrong.
Let me put the question in a different way. Does anybody have 5/5/4 or 5/5/5 in the relevant datacore and encryption skills AND have just the basic requirements apart from these skills?
This is where this alt is at. I know that the levels of the other skills are supposed to be irrelevant in the chances calculation. However, if most people are inventing on their main characters then maybe these other secondary skills are maxed out anyway. If that's the case then maybe the other skills (for example, hacking 2) are having a detrimental effect.
Thanks for your time in responding though.
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KaarBaak
Minmatar Hell's Librarians Imperium Directive
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Posted - 2010.08.20 04:18:00 -
[12]
My current invention pilot has min invention skills (3/3/3) and invents mods. For four cycles (100 tries each) I was getting 50-55%. Fifth cycle I got 37%. Discouraging, but I'll muddle on to the next cycle.
It did encourage me to bump skills to 4/4/4 though.
It's funny how, when an "RNG" is introduced, people turn to all kinds of superstitions to explain away a down cycle.
KB
=vinur allra manna
MetaGaming |
Sepi
Gamma Draconis Industries Eternus Imperium Alliance
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Posted - 2010.08.20 11:37:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Kiar Verok
Let me put the question in a different way. Does anybody have 5/5/4 or 5/5/5 in the relevant datacore and encryption skills AND have just the basic requirements apart from these skills?
This is where this alt is at. I know that the levels of the other skills are supposed to be irrelevant in the chances calculation. However, if most people are inventing on their main characters then maybe these other secondary skills are maxed out anyway. If that's the case then maybe the other skills (for example, hacking 2) are having a detrimental effect.
Thanks for your time in responding though.
The lack of hacking skill will have 0 effect on any chance of success or failure, put it another way, if you build t2 cruisers, having t2 frigate building skill doesn't effect the cruiser building. (yes i know about pre-reqs)
The only skills that matter are the ones that are detailed on the invention tab, all other skills are not considered.
In terms of good/bad, as i mentioned in someone post (almost exactly same issue as yours) Last month i had 5 successes from about 110 inventions (cruiser/BS) Howver in the 6months or so my invention on ships are
BS = 31.2% Cruiser = 39.9% Frigate = 29.8% Mods = 58.9% Drones 68.3%
These are based over nearly 3,000 inventions on various toons, with slightly different skills, but my bad run was on my 5/5/5 toon.
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Maria Yumeno
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Posted - 2010.08.21 04:22:00 -
[14]
about a month ago i got something like 7/7 BS inventions successful... this month i got 1/9 so far. It balances its self out.. believe me. A hundred frigate inventions really isn't that many, just be happy it wasn't freighter inventions.
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