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Vierego
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Posted - 2011.03.27 06:05:00 -
[1]
So I've noticed an interesting thing, I'm not sure if I actually extrapolated the data out to spreadsheets I would see any correlation.
However, it seems that people sell in waves to the market. Now I know time zone/ time people get off work/right before they log off there is going to be an influx of sales because more people are playing.
What I mean is that, 20 minutes will pass and maybe 1 or 2 people will sell, and then there will be a wave of sales form a bunch of different players. Another 30 minutes, ect ect. You would think in a hub, players would filter in at all times (but some times with increased volume). Right now it seems to be almost "pulses".
Not sure if this is useful, it's just something odd I noticed.
I buy mission loot in bulk at above buy order prices! (sinq laison) |
Rasz Lin
Caldari Uitraan Diversified Holdings Incorporated
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Posted - 2011.03.27 07:52:00 -
[2]
Originally by: Vierego
Not sure if this is useful, it's just something odd I noticed.
At start (a year ago) I thought I was just seeing CCP generated NPCs selling to my buy orders :) Later (half a year ago) I leaned towards it being just a DB cache flushes. Now I have no idea.
Yes, it is weird how you can have a region wide buy order sit idle for 2 days, and all of a sudden you see 4 people selling you stuff at 4 different stations inside 2 minute window, and then again 1-2 idle days. It happens on all my buy orders.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.03.27 11:18:00 -
[3]
You are not the first. It's some centuries that traders noticed patterns in the markets and EvE makes no exception.
I suggest you look at "Japanese candlestick bars" and "Elliot Waves theory", you'll find how and why it works.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Da Trader
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Posted - 2011.03.27 12:17:00 -
[4]
it can be simply people logging from the work/study during luchtime. Timezones mean that it can be morning/evening for you
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Tarigal
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Posted - 2011.03.27 23:54:00 -
[5]
You can substitute "Elliot Wave Theory" with "Tea Leave Readings" and get about the same results :)
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Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
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Posted - 2011.03.28 00:48:00 -
[6]
Markets have as much memory of 'head and shoulders' as roulette balls have of the last spin being red or black. 'Chartology' is about as scientific as psychic readings.
Our brains are wired to spot patterns as that's how we learn. Sadly this often leads us astray because our brains are convinced there are patterns even where none exist. A large part of gambling psychology is predicated on this.
The ball landed on black 12 times on a row so it must be red this time! I've been in casinos and seen people literally run to roulette tables when the readerboard shows the last 12 winners were black. Everytime I see some idiot on CBNC drawing make-believe pictures on stock charts all I can think of are roulette players.
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Quazal Atreides
Gallente Rampant Lion Technologies
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Posted - 2011.03.28 00:54:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard Markets have as much memory of 'head and shoulders' as roulette balls have of the last spin being red or black. 'Chartology' is about as scientific as psychic readings.
Our brains are wired to spot patterns as that's how we learn. Sadly this often leads us astray because our brains are convinced there are patterns even where none exist. A large part of gambling psychology is predicated on this.
The ball landed on black 12 times on a row so it must be red this time! I've been in casinos and seen people literally run to roulette tables when the readerboard shows the last 12 winners were black. Everytime I see some idiot on CBNC drawing make-believe pictures on stock charts all I can think of are roulette players.
yep there is a well known attempt on the web about how to win at roulette on online sites... the whole double your bet until your win comes in on either red or black (or low/medium/high) as chance goes you CANNOT win in long term on roulette given there is 37 chances and 35:1 to win
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Vierego
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Posted - 2011.03.28 01:58:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Da Trader it can be simply people logging from the work/study during luchtime. Timezones mean that it can be morning/evening for you
Completely get that, but if that is the case lets say we have 3 people (simple example). All three get off work at 5. 1 takes 27 minutes to log in (traffic, goes straight home logs in) 1 takes 1 hour to log in (he does some chores) 1 takes 10 minutes (hes playing while driving).
Now they start mission running. Right now it seems they tend to fall into where they all sell within the same amount of time. This makes sense for "night" as people are about to log off and want to see their profits.
Dunno, I will look into the reading provided above. I buy mission loot in bulk at above buy order prices! (sinq laison) |
Adunh Slavy
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Posted - 2011.03.28 02:43:00 -
[9]
Yes there are patterns, daily and weekly, if I understand your point.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
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Hexxx
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.28 03:40:00 -
[10]
"Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio
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Liang Nuren
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Posted - 2011.03.28 05:17:00 -
[11]
I've convo'd people who were buying stuff from me to discuss their purchase and what they're fitting to their ship. I have no reason to believe they aren't real people.
-Liang -- Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire On Twitter
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.28 09:09:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Akita T on 28/03/2011 09:10:48
Originally by: Vierego What I mean is that, 20 minutes will pass and maybe 1 or 2 people will sell, and then there will be a wave of sales form a bunch of different players. Another 30 minutes, ect ect. You would think in a hub, players would filter in at all times (but some times with increased volume). Right now it seems to be almost "pulses". Not sure if this is useful, it's just something odd I noticed.
This is actually (and sadly) relatively easily explained, if you are to believe what other people have been reporting every now and then about transactions made in remote areas. Allegedly, SOMETIMES, transactions don't show up in your logs the moment a purchase is made, instead, it goes into some sort of cache, and appears minutes, hours, or in some cases, even just after the next downtime. Your orders might even be sold out, but you don't see them in the transaction log yet, then all of a sudden, BAM, several transactions at the same time.
TL;DR : lag in the market/inventory/log system ? _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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quygen
Minmatar Acting Neutral
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Posted - 2011.03.28 09:58:00 -
[13]
I know of only 1 pattern, Jita Sunday 19.00-22.00
Time to sell...
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Tanmoe
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Posted - 2011.03.28 10:34:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Hexxx "Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature."
U gotta love that movie !...
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Hexxx
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.28 10:51:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Tanmoe
Originally by: Hexxx "Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature."
U gotta love that movie !...
I know, and I figured it was so appropriate given the subject line of the OP.
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Rasz Lin
Caldari Uitraan Diversified Holdings Incorporated
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Posted - 2011.03.28 17:16:00 -
[16]
Another fun one - you are browsing your sell orders, check price of something that hasnt sold a single unit in a couple of days and BAM wallet flashes, you just sold it :D Happens to me all the time, most often with ships.
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Solstice Project
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Posted - 2011.03.29 20:16:00 -
[17]
I can tell you out of my real-life-experience as a seller in a shop.
There are times (as like once a day) when i sell product A to somebody and minutes later (next customer) comes and buys exactly the same thing.
Happens "rarely" in an "hour-to-hour"-base, but happens "often" in a "day-to-day"-base. (hope that makes sense language-wise, sorry)
Further more ...
I experienced ppl coming into the shop (or others i have worked in) in waves.
In one of the shops this was related to special timeframes ... ... (like around the full hour, around each half hour, etc ... ) ... ... or "suddenly out of the nothing" when they come into the shop ... ... in waves of 10 or more and then there's a break of 5min or so.
So ... the time-framed-stuff is easy. Ppl tend to start breaks at full hours/halfes/quarters and ppl don't tend to meet at 11:26 or 9:47 but rather at full quarters of halves. (That's why i set up my dates to strange times like 13, 17, 28, etc ^^)
When i first noticed the phenomenon of not selling stuff within days (EvE) ... ... but then again selling plenty of stuff in minutes ... ... i remembered my experience from the shop.
Conclusion is ... it's just "normal". Most waves i know of are rather "time-based" ... ... and rest (sounds strange, i know) seems to be chaos-theory or something alike.
It's definitly no cache-issue, because i have experienced this phenomenon (in EvE) also in the range of days ... ... where i didn't sell anything ... ... and then started to sell that item the whole day long.
I thought ... Incursion ? Would have made sense ... ... but didn't fit ... too bad. ^^
I'm explaining this phenomenon via the simple approach of ...
"Everything" looks random, but as soon as you "zoom out" far enough you see a pattern which wasn't obvious before. (this seems to be general knowledge ... to me at least)
I hope the language barrier doesn't affect my post too much, i'll even try to find links that give "evidence" ... ... (everything that looks random looks ordered from farther away) ... ... altough that's a bit hard for me because i have to search them in english.
Now ... do it like me. Try understanding the patterns ... ... (once you grasp that it's easy because obvious) ... ... and make profit from it.
I do it occasionally ... and so can you. (No i won't tell how, seriously ...) (It's really easier to understand ... than to talk about it. ^^)
Now have fun insulting me. :)
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Solstice Project
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Posted - 2011.03.29 20:21:00 -
[18]
Oh there's something to add.
Usually, when we want to stop selling a specific item ... ... ppl start asking for it ... so we keep it on stock ... ... and again it doesn't sell.
Or ... we remove an item from stock because of "zero sells within [timeframe]" and YOU CAN BET YOUR SOUL ... within a few days ... somebody asks for it.
That's "business as usual" for me. Really.
Explanation ? Forget it ... too hard to explain. Best explanation i got is ... "It's natural and seems to be our fault".
Am i understanding it ? In some way ... altough it gets seriously esoterical there ... ... and i seriously can't stand that. ^^
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Lady Go Diveher
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Posted - 2011.03.30 12:52:00 -
[19]
WTS - Snake oil.
Guaranteed to make all our orders sell quicker.
55,000 ISK per unit.
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Inanna NiKunni
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Posted - 2011.03.30 20:42:00 -
[20]
a possible explanation, depending on where you are, might be related to large alliance battles. lets say a large alliance posts a cta for 6pm, asking for armor hacs - you are probably going to sell a few medium pulse lazors and afterburners between 5 and 6 because people are getting ready for the CTA and fitting their ships. Lets say a few hours later things don't go as planned for our armor hac gang and 100 zealots are destroyed, well somebody is going to sell a lot of zealots in the next few days because people tend to replace their ships.
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stoicfaux
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.03.30 21:08:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Hexxx "Restate my assumptions: One, Mathematics is the language of nature. Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature."
Yes the pattern exists, but chaos theory says that unless you have the equations and the starting values, the next value is unpredictable.
----- "Are you a sociopathic paranoid schizophrenic with accounting skills? We have the game for you! -- Eve, the game of Alts, Economics, Machiavelli, and PvP"
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2011.03.30 22:43:00 -
[22]
When I was selling ammo in massive amounts of all types of ammo in Black Rise I notice a patten of about 20-30 minutes as well. I don't know why I did it but I exported EMMA data and threw it into Excel and created a chart. I noticed that all my ammo across all types where being sold with a 20-30 minute gaps with a variance under 10%...
What was it? Mission time.
People pumping out missions in a mission hub that has 200 people in it must all group together, or at least a majority of large purchases of bulk munitions happened in groups. Which is odd because I've run hundred of lvl 4 missions and while a good number of them do take about 20-30 minutes, that's not always the case. Some can take an hour, others can take 5 minutes. However, I would believe CCP design missions to not be excessively long, but can't it so short the player can pump out ISK/LP/Standing rewards like crazy. Hearing this from them wouldn't surprise me in the least, a lot of "interactive" processes are revolved around how long a person can maintain their attention.
According to my wifes Childhood development courses, teachers of young children (from 4 years to 10 years old) try not to create tasks lasting longer then 25 minutes. The peek attention span is about 15 minutes (Why do you think TV schedule ads every 12-15 minutes of show). At about 20 minutes the attention to details starts to decline, at about 30 minutes kids realize they are board.
This wouldn't surprise me that CCP develop missions that try not to exceed the 30 minute mark. How this relates to the market? It's a lose flaky connection at best, or at least clutching at straws but sounds good
Amarr for Life |
Steve Thomas
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.31 02:39:00 -
[23]
there are patterns to it, but the problem is that trying to make your own individual patern fit into the larger patern is a royal PITA.
you have the daily patern caused by the coincidence of people logging in in bulk between the peak time and low times of the game, Paterns that are forced by downtime, patterns caused by how people play during the week, and during the year.
but your also dealing with small patterns, caused by for example a Corp or aliances "Gypsy trader" in a Freightor buying bulk or selling bulk, people doing multiple 30 day factory runs in your market and unloading and so on. .end of line.
----
If you think your too paranoid to play EvE...
Then you clearly are not paranoid enough to play EvE
(Alt list) Rico Lobo |
Roguehalo
Caldari Roguehalo Ship Brokers
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Posted - 2011.03.31 06:17:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Quazal Atreides
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard Markets have as much memory of 'head and shoulders' as roulette balls have of the last spin being red or black. 'Chartology' is about as scientific as psychic readings.
Our brains are wired to spot patterns as that's how we learn. Sadly this often leads us astray because our brains are convinced there are patterns even where none exist. A large part of gambling psychology is predicated on this.
The ball landed on black 12 times on a row so it must be red this time! I've been in casinos and seen people literally run to roulette tables when the readerboard shows the last 12 winners were black. Everytime I see some idiot on CBNC drawing make-believe pictures on stock charts all I can think of are roulette players.
yep there is a well known attempt on the web about how to win at roulette on online sites... the whole double your bet until your win comes in on either red or black (or low/medium/high) as chance goes you CANNOT win in long term on roulette given there is 37 chances and 35:1 to win
It isn't the odds that kill the double up system........it's the house limit
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Rasz Lin
Caldari Uitraan Diversified Holdings Incorporated
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Posted - 2011.03.31 06:34:00 -
[25]
Would be nice to get CCP DB guy in here to answer if this has anything to do with DB cache flushes/DB write optimizations. It is totally possible (albeit messy) that server aggregates smaller transactions over time.
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Loki Nahat
Skyforger Tactical Narcotics Team
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Posted - 2011.03.31 11:35:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Tarigal You can substitute "Elliot Wave Theory" with "Tea Leave Readings" and get about the same results :)
leaf reading, :) or Tasseography.
But yes, more than right, Elliot Wave principles were constructed by economic fan boys, people who tried to hash together a mathematical background to markets, based on 19th century thermodynamics.
Economics as a subject, is not even wrong.
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Katie Tanaka
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Posted - 2011.03.31 14:09:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Roguehalo It isn't the odds that kill the double up system........it's the house limit
That's a fallacy. A Martingale strategy always has a negative expectation when there's a house edge. Since betting the even odds in roulette (red/black, high/low etc) is a losing bet 20 times out of 38 (you have two zeroes), you're going to lose money in the long run.
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Roguehalo
Caldari Roguehalo Ship Brokers
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Posted - 2011.03.31 14:42:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Katie Tanaka
Originally by: Roguehalo It isn't the odds that kill the double up system........it's the house limit
That's a fallacy. A Martingale strategy always has a negative expectation when there's a house edge. Since betting the even odds in roulette (red/black, high/low etc) is a losing bet 20 times out of 38 (you have two zeroes), you're going to lose money in the long run.
The double up system doesn't care about odds. All it cares is that it can always double a losing bet. Then it must always win. As I stated before this always hits the house limit
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Katie Tanaka
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Posted - 2011.03.31 15:09:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Roguehalo The double up system doesn't care about odds. All it cares is that it can always double a losing bet. Then it must always win. As I stated before this always hits the house limit
But
- you don't have an infinite amount of money to keep doubling until you win; so
- at some point you are going to encounter a losing streak which bankrupts you; and
- the negative expectation from the house edge means that you're much more likely to bankrupt than double your stake.
Say I go to a table with $1,048,576 and place an initial bet of $1 and double every time I lose. To go bankrupt I have to lose 20 times in a row. The probability of this occurring about 0.000266% - i.e. (20/38)^20 - in all other cases, I make $1 by winning before the 20th spin and we're back to the start. The expected payout of this strategy is winning $1 with 99.999734% probability and losing $1,048,576 with 0.000266% probability.
$0.99999734 - ($1,048,576 * 0.000266%) = -$1.789512
So even bringing more than a million dollars to the table and betting only a single dollar to improve my chances of avoiding going bust, my expectation is still that I lose money following the strategy.
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Roguehalo
Caldari Roguehalo Ship Brokers
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Posted - 2011.03.31 16:01:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Katie Tanaka
Originally by: Roguehalo The double up system doesn't care about odds. All it cares is that it can always double a losing bet. Then it must always win. As I stated before this always hits the house limit
But
- you don't have an infinite amount of money to keep doubling until you win; so
- at some point you are going to encounter a losing streak which bankrupts you; and
- the negative expectation from the house edge means that you're much more likely to bankrupt than double your stake.
Say I go to a table with $1,048,576 and place an initial bet of $1 and double every time I lose. To go bankrupt I have to lose 20 times in a row. The probability of this occurring about 0.000266% - i.e. (20/38)^20 - in all other cases, I make $1 by winning before the 20th spin and we're back to the start. The expected payout of this strategy is winning $1 with 99.999734% probability and losing $1,048,576 with 0.000266% probability.
$0.99999734 - ($1,048,576 * 0.000266%) = -$1.789512
So even bringing more than a million dollars to the table and betting only a single dollar to improve my chances of avoiding going bust, my expectation is still that I lose money following the strategy.
In discussing the system it's usual to assume that the player has unlimited funds. If he DOES have unlimited funds and there is NO house limit then the player will always win. The reason I bought up the house limit 1st is that a multibillionaire will usually lose through hitting the house limit 1st rather than running out of funds.
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