Pages: [1] :: one page |
|
Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar Infinitus Sapientia New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 02:14:00 -
[1]
Megacyte has dropped almost 15% in the past couple of weeks, Zydrine is down 5%, and the rest seem flat. Any reason for this? Did the (relatively recent?) macro banning not cause an expected spike so speculators are selling off?
Seems to have moved fairly quickly to T1 ships, which appear flat or down over the past 2 weeks I think.
|
Adunh Slavy
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 03:27:00 -
[2]
My guess is go long on zyd, short on everything else, watch for a meg bottom and then go long.
Just a guess of course. Play the spreads, can still make ISK in a downmarket if you can turn things quickly enough.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 07:51:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Adunh Slavy My guess is go long on zyd, short on everything else, watch for a meg bottom and then go long.
Just a guess of course. Play the spreads, can still make ISK in a downmarket if you can turn things quickly enough.
Dammit, my game's bugged. I can't seem to find the short sell button!
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
clixoras
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 07:52:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Hieronimus Rex Megacyte has dropped almost 15% in the past couple of weeks, Zydrine is down 5%, and the rest seem flat. Any reason for this? Did the (relatively recent?) macro banning not cause an expected spike so speculators are selling off?
Seems to have moved fairly quickly to T1 ships, which appear flat or down over the past 2 weeks I think.
One thing i'll say, look at the volumes in Jita, if you look closely they are down.
|
Vierego
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 07:54:00 -
[5]
Originally by: clixoras
Originally by: Hieronimus Rex Megacyte has dropped almost 15% in the past couple of weeks, Zydrine is down 5%, and the rest seem flat. Any reason for this? Did the (relatively recent?) macro banning not cause an expected spike so speculators are selling off?
Seems to have moved fairly quickly to T1 ships, which appear flat or down over the past 2 weeks I think.
One thing i'll say, look at the volumes in Jita, if you look closely they are down.
So demand is down, maybe all the 0.0 alliances ( I have no clue what I am talking about, don't keep up with alliance politics) have bought the minerals they need to recover their destroyed titan? I buy mission loot in bulk at above buy order prices! (sinq laison) |
clixoras
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 08:33:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Vierego
So demand is down, maybe all the 0.0 alliances ( I have no clue what I am talking about, don't keep up with alliance politics) have bought the minerals they need to recover their destroyed titan?
Then look also at the buy order prices, it could be that supply is down, not demand.
|
Adunh Slavy
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 08:39:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Dammit, my game's bugged. I can't seem to find the short sell button!
Lol yeah, no such thing in Eve. Have to find something that is going down at a rate to which you can pay attention.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
|
Vierego
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 08:48:00 -
[8]
Originally by: clixoras
Originally by: Vierego
So demand is down, maybe all the 0.0 alliances ( I have no clue what I am talking about, don't keep up with alliance politics) have bought the minerals they need to recover their destroyed titan?
Then look also at the buy order prices, it could be that supply is down, not demand.
Err, now I may not be a finance/marketing/business major but wouldn't less supply mean higher price? I buy mission loot in bulk at above buy order prices! (sinq laison) |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 09:05:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 30/03/2011 09:07:18 Decreased volume is normal in a downwards market.
People still have the "buy and hold" (greed= 1 of the 2 market pillars) mentality, when they see prices tank they just don't sell. They will keep the stuff till it's so blatantly clear it's going to crash that they will be taken by panic (fear = the second market pillar). Once in panic they all dump at the same time, creating those nice huge "red candles".
Finally, since I have not seen anyone pointing at this obvious "minerals basket" concept, if trit rises, mega drops and vice versa.
High price trit => less ships done => less mega needed => mega tanks.
Then there's the demand and offer concept: if trit tanks it's because low tech items are tanking and this happens when bots become too many or when players leave EvE (i.e. summer vacation). In this case trit will tank, mega will go up for a little (some will think minerals got cheap and will do some production) then start dropping itself.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 09:30:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 30/03/2011 09:07:18 Decreased volume is normal in a downwards market.
People still have the "buy and hold" (greed= 1 of the 2 market pillars) mentality, when they see prices tank they just don't sell. They will keep the stuff till it's so blatantly clear it's going to crash that they will be taken by panic (fear = the second market pillar). Once in panic they all dump at the same time, creating those nice huge "red candles".
Finally, since I have not seen anyone pointing at this obvious "minerals basket" concept, if trit rises, mega drops and vice versa.
High price trit => less ships done => less mega needed => mega tanks.
Then there's the demand and offer concept: if trit tanks it's because low tech items are tanking and this happens when bots become too many or when players leave EvE (i.e. summer vacation). In this case trit will tank, mega will go up for a little (some will think minerals got cheap and will do some production) then start dropping itself.
This is probably the best explination i've read regarding this. I was about to ask why but you've explained. Thanks.
Now what do i do with all this Mega i have?
|
|
clixoras
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 09:52:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 30/03/2011 09:07:18 High price trit => less ships done => less mega needed => mega tanks.
Then there's the demand and offer concept: if trit tanks it's because low tech items are tanking and this happens when bots become too many or when players leave EvE (i.e. summer vacation). In this case trit will tank, mega will go up for a little (some will think minerals got cheap and will do some production) then start dropping itself.
Well outlined, my compliments. But this is assuming a totally flexible productionmarket. Due to skills, available BPO's and most importantly the 'hard' math required (most pple are lazy) manufacturers are not that flexible in changing productionlines.
In other words, they see their build cost going up, check the sell prices and see that their profitmargin is still ok / similar and keep producing (=buying mins)
|
Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar Infinitus Sapientia New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 11:23:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 30/03/2011 09:07:18 Decreased volume is normal in a downwards market.
People still have the "buy and hold" (greed= 1 of the 2 market pillars) mentality, when they see prices tank they just don't sell. They will keep the stuff till it's so blatantly clear it's going to crash that they will be taken by panic (fear = the second market pillar). Once in panic they all dump at the same time, creating those nice huge "red candles".
Finally, since I have not seen anyone pointing at this obvious "minerals basket" concept, if trit rises, mega drops and vice versa.
High price trit => less ships done => less mega needed => mega tanks.
Then there's the demand and offer concept: if trit tanks it's because low tech items are tanking and this happens when bots become too many or when players leave EvE (i.e. summer vacation). In this case trit will tank, mega will go up for a little (some will think minerals got cheap and will do some production) then start dropping itself.
This is probably the best explination i've read regarding this. I was about to ask why but you've explained. Thanks.
Now what do i do with all this Mega i have?
Trit has been high for months now, hasn't it?
I was claiming the mineral basket was actually dropping (mega down, the rest were largely flat or slightly down). This seems a little early for the summer vacation effect.
|
Javajunky
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 12:30:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Javajunky on 30/03/2011 12:30:22 The last few months of fighting in NC v Russians created a huge Supercap and Titan Killboard list, this war has easily vaporized 100M but probably somewhere closer to 200M trit from the Eve Landscape in term of ships. Sure the russians are refining drone goods but NC is more than likely dumping high ends on the market to trade out for the low ends generated in empire. Add to the fact that builders may be holding off on building because the low end prices (trit 3.0 + etc) probably makes missions a bit more attractive. Just in trit alone, compared to a few months back you're looking at 700M in additional materials for a Nyx nevermind the smaller stuff. Bottom line when lots of big ships go boom, stuff changes.
|
Caldari FTW123
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 12:58:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Javajunky Edited by: Javajunky on 30/03/2011 12:30:22 The last few months of fighting in NC v Russians created a huge Supercap and Titan Killboard list, this war has easily vaporized 100M but probably somewhere closer to 200M trit from the Eve Landscape in term of ships. Sure the russians are refining drone goods but NC is more than likely dumping high ends on the market to trade out for the low ends generated in empire. Add to the fact that builders may be holding off on building because the low end prices (trit 3.0 + etc) probably makes missions a bit more attractive. Just in trit alone, compared to a few months back you're looking at 700M in additional materials for a Nyx nevermind the smaller stuff. Bottom line when lots of big ships go boom, stuff changes.
100-200m trit ? Say it isn't so! Lol that's a terribly small amount, I think you are confused.
|
Lorkin Desal
Caldari Lone Star Partners
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 13:21:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Javajunky Edited by: Javajunky on 30/03/2011 12:30:22 The last few months of fighting in NC v Russians created a huge Supercap and Titan Killboard list, this war has easily vaporized 50 but probably somewhere closer to 200Bn trit from the Eve Landscape in term of ships. Sure the russians are refining drone goods but NC is more than likely dumping high ends on the market to trade out for the low ends generated in empire. Add to the fact that builders may be holding off on building because the low end prices (trit 3.0 + etc) probably makes missions a bit more attractive. Just in trit alone, compared to a few months back you're looking at 700M in additional materials for a Nyx nevermind the smaller stuff. Bottom line when lots of big ships go boom, stuff changes.
Fixed that for you.
|
Adunh Slavy
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 16:41:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Now what do i do with all this Mega i have?
I'll buy it from ya at 1450.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2011.03.30 19:06:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 30/03/2011 19:06:48
Quote:
Well outlined, my compliments. But this is assuming a totally flexible productionmarket. Due to skills, available BPO's and most importantly the 'hard' math required (most pple are lazy) manufacturers are not that flexible in changing productionlines.
In other words, they see their build cost going up, check the sell prices and see that their profitmargin is still ok / similar and keep producing (=buying mins)
I am not assuming anything.
Price discounts feelings, manufacturers "lag" at adapting (you may find price overshooting in RL markets as well) and so on.
Price also describes and discounts the many mindsets, contrasting interests, manipulations. Those with the rare ability to "see" the so called, mythical market rythm are those who will benefit off the ever changing markets.
Quote:
Now what do i do with all this Mega i have?
Unlike RL, keeping stuff for a better day is feasible in EvE. Also, look at the price graph and how it was exactly 1 year ago at this time.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
|
Posted - 2011.03.31 01:14:00 -
[18]
BSAC's MRD is a good measure of the mineral basket.
Mineral Reserve Dollar
BSAC Stock Exchange - EVE's only real-time stock exchange |
Syds Sinclair
|
Posted - 2011.03.31 02:10:00 -
[19]
..You implode yet Block?
|
|
|
|
Pages: [1] :: one page |
First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |