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San Holletteo
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Posted - 2011.05.05 03:31:00 -
[1]
So I have been reading/ following some of the conflict in Geminate, and if it is really true and the NC ends up losing a majority of their tech moons will this cause a destabilization in the tech market? Can we expect to see Tech go way up in the up and coming months? If so where would one predict the peak level of tech prices to be at?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.05 03:36:00 -
[2]
Originally by: San Holletteo Can we expect to see Tech go way up in the up and coming months?
You can expect that regardless of anything that's going on. At most, this might accelerate the rate of price increase. In "peace times" (full production level), WHEN the stockpiles are gone (there are still enough leftover), you can easily expect tech prices up to a quarter mil per unit.
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Loraine Gess
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Posted - 2011.05.05 05:07:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: San Holletteo Can we expect to see Tech go way up in the up and coming months?
You can expect that regardless of anything that's going on. At most, this might accelerate the rate of price increase. In "peace times" (full production level), WHEN the stockpiles are gone (there are still enough leftover), you can easily expect tech prices up to a quarter mil per unit.
Is this a new prediction, or am I completely missing your possible trolling?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.05.05 06:19:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Loraine Gess
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: San Holletteo Can we expect to see Tech go way up in the up and coming months?
You can expect that regardless of anything that's going on. At most, this might accelerate the rate of price increase. In "peace times" (full production level), WHEN the stockpiles are gone (there are still enough leftover), you can easily expect tech prices up to a quarter mil per unit.
Is this a new prediction, or am I completely missing your possible trolling?
You are missing her sure profit.
Tech is so manipulated it makes me feel sorry for the chaps going there to lose their money.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.05 08:30:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Loraine Gess Is this a new prediction
This is actually the very same prediction I made two winters ago. Back then, I merely underestimated the amount of stockpiles in existence when compared to the used minus extracted stockpile depletion rate (and therefore underestimated how long it would take for prices to get there).
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.05.05 09:37:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Tech is so manipulated
Not manipulated - But _speculated_.
Manipulated would indicate prizes are moving in ways it would not "by itself".
Speculated, simply indicates that the going trend is exploited.
The stockpiles somewhat dampens the speculation effect - For now.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.05 13:15:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 05/05/2011 13:16:23 Tech moons changing hands in large numbers means that the price will rise faster than it normally would, but not because any significant amount is destroyed or its extraction interrupted.
Rather, the longer a moon is towered by an entity, the greater the chance that they will produce the intermediate and advanced materials directly in their space. When a new entity overtakes the moon and surrounding space, they are far less likely to have a full reaction chain up and running. This means that less advanced materials are being produced and more tech is going straight to Jita as a raw material. The more advanced materials are produced by secondary reaction chains, the higher the overall price will be to account for the added work and risk for these producers, as well as general shortages as direct producers leave the market and secondary producers enter. This upward pressure on advanced mats helps to move the whole market through the psychological barriers that hold the price down, thereby leading to a faster price rise.
I don't think you're going to see much effect from Geminate's 30 moons and the 5 or 6 in its surrounding lowsec regions. However, as they move into majesta space or even morsus moons in venal, then you will see a significant impact, as these two alliances are heavily into higher end reactions of their tech.
Also, I have to laugh my balls off at VV's "manipulation" accusations as a prime example of the intellectual bankruptcy of technical analysis.
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Antihrist Pripravnik
4S Corporation Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2011.05.05 13:34:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik on 05/05/2011 13:36:14 Do you know what would be really funny and make huge amount of tears?
Let's say someone from the NC decides to end this by dumping a very large stock on the market at 50k per unit. You know... the kind of stock that's bigger than all manipulator's wallets combined.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.05 14:55:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Antihrist Pripravnik Let's say someone from the NC decides to end this by dumping a very large stock on the market at 50k per unit. You know... the kind of stock that's bigger than all manipulator's wallets combined.
We have Doc.E.G.'s statement from the fanfest that "no unusual activity or significant stockpiling is going on", so chances are, not many in the NC have massive stockpiles to begin with, the much more likely scenario being that most tech stockpiles are sitting in the hangars of speculators or the very few NC or other former tech moon owners that "play the long game", which makes it extremely unlikely for them to want to crash their own goldmine. Most of the NC tech moon owners ferry it and its products on a regular basis to Jita in order to fund their immediate ISK needs, without even considering the possibility of stockpiling, because for them it's not an option, aching for as much ISK as possible as fast as possible.
Also, never underestimate the wallets of speculators AND OF THOSE WILLING TO LEND THEM EVEN MORE ISK in return for some decent collateral (and tech is quite acceptable as collateral too). The "tears" in this case would most likely be the tears of whoever put up the sell order at those abysmally low prices... unless they quickly rebuy all of it in the wake of a temporary (and quite frankly not even very likely, not even hypothetically) panic-cascade due to the sudden price drop. Not just that, but since the stockpiles would have moved in the hands of people that want to play the longer game themselves, the price ramp-up afterwards will almost surely not only catch up but actually overtake the current upwards trend line.
Then again, I really would like to see somebody try to pull that stunt. What other obvious way would be there to multiply my current wallet balance in a relatively short time right now, with no patch in the near future ?
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.05.05 15:34:00 -
[10]
Originally by: TornSoul
Not manipulated - But _speculated_.
Manipulated would indicate prizes are moving in ways it would not "by itself".
Price does not move ways it would not by itself, it just moves, regardless of why / who / how move it.
The regular EvE chart won't show what happens very well, but look at this picture taken from Experiment #03 On demand game market data and graphs.
Don't you see the price levels that hint at manipulation?
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Also, I have to laugh my balls off at VV's "manipulation" accusations as a prime example of the intellectual bankruptcy of technical analysis.
I like how you write a smelly turd about something I did not even mention nor use before this post.
Originally by: Akita T
Also, never underestimate the wallets of speculators AND OF THOSE WILLING TO LEND THEM EVEN MORE ISK in return for some decent collateral (and tech is quite acceptable as collateral too). The "tears" in this case would most likely be the tears of whoever put up the sell order at those abysmally low prices... unless they quickly rebuy all of it in the wake of a temporary (and quite frankly not even very likely, not even hypothetically) panic-cascade due to the sudden price drop. Not just that, but since the stockpiles would have moved in the hands of people that want to play the longer game themselves, the price ramp-up afterwards will almost surely not only catch up but actually overtake the current upwards trend line.
Then again, I really would like to see somebody try to pull that stunt. What other obvious way would be there to multiply my current wallet balance in a relatively short time right now, with no patch in the near future ?
Your neutrality stating these things is not exactly crystal clear.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.05 15:41:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Also, I have to laugh my balls off at VV's "manipulation" accusations as a prime example of the intellectual bankruptcy of technical analysis.
I like how you write a smelly turd about something I did not even mention nor use before this post.
Except you just confirmed that my perfectly reasonable assumption concerning the source of your opinion was 100% correct. Rofl.
I look forward to your barely coherent wall of text response, which I won't read.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.05.05 15:47:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Also, I have to laugh my balls off at VV's "manipulation" accusations as a prime example of the intellectual bankruptcy of technical analysis.
I like how you write a smelly turd about something I did not even mention nor use before this post.
Except you just confirmed that my perfectly reasonable assumption concerning the source of your opinion was 100% correct. Rofl.
I look forward to your barely coherent wall of text response, which I won't read.
Wrong again, both on ASSumption and length of reply:
Looking at a graph <> doing T.A.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.05.05 16:35:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 05/05/2011 13:16:23 Rather, the longer a moon is towered by an entity, the greater the chance that they will produce the intermediate and advanced materials directly in their space. When a new entity overtakes the moon and surrounding space, they are far less likely to have a full reaction chain up and running. This means that less advanced materials are being produced and more tech is going straight to Jita as a raw material. The more advanced materials are produced by secondary reaction chains, the higher the overall price will be to account for the added work and risk for these producers, as well as general shortages as direct producers leave the market and secondary producers enter. This upward pressure on advanced mats helps to move the whole market through the psychological barriers that hold the price down, thereby leading to a faster price rise.
I don't think you're going to see much effect from Geminate's 30 moons and the 5 or 6 in its surrounding lowsec regions. However, as they move into majesta space or even morsus moons in venal, then you will see a significant impact, as these two alliances are heavily into higher end reactions of their tech.
You hit the bull's eye. BTW Majesta is already hit by DRF and PL. We losts a bunch of Tech Moons recently and current borderline of this war IS Vale atm.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.05.06 18:37:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: TornSoul
Not manipulated - But _speculated_.
Manipulated would indicate prizes are moving in ways it would not "by itself".
Price does not move ways it would not by itself, it just moves, regardless of why / who / how move it.
The regular EvE chart won't show what happens very well, but look at this picture taken from Experiment #03 On demand game market data and graphs.
Don't you see the price levels that hint at manipulation?
For the sake of argument : Please state your definition of "market manipulation"?
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