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Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1482
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:38:00 -
[1] - Quote
People keep throwing the term "risk/reward" or "risk:reward" around as if each area of space or activity has an actual "risk/reward" score. Since it makes sense for such a score to exist, and reward is easy to define (isk/hr), we should endeavor to actually define it.
The only issue is... defining "risk" as a number. What would you use as an objective heuristic for risk measurement in Eve? Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Jackie Fisher
syrkos technologies Joint Venture Conglomerate
110
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:42:00 -
[2] - Quote
In a recreational activity shouldn't reward also include 'fun'? Fear God and Thread Nought |
Paul Oliver
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
726
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:44:00 -
[3] - Quote
Jackie Fisher wrote:In a recreational activity shouldn't reward also include 'fun'? Apparently "EVE is real" so no, now get back to work. "Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must undergo the fatigues of supporting it." - Thomas Paine |
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1482
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:45:00 -
[4] - Quote
Jackie Fisher wrote:In a recreational activity shouldn't reward also include 'fun'? It could, but it would throw off the objectivity of the measurement, as everyone has their own way of having fun. How do you measure fun? Is the risk/reward of a miner who trolls his detractors higher than that of one who AFK mines?
Let's keep "fun" out of this. Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Rordan D'Kherr
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
75
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:47:00 -
[5] - Quote
Petrus Blackshell wrote:The only issue is... defining "risk" as a number. What would you use as an objective heuristic for risk measurement in Eve?
There is a risk figure in game, called "system securtiy". Starts 1.0 and ends at -1.0
No problem, you are welcome.
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Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1482
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:49:00 -
[6] - Quote
Rordan D'Kherr wrote:Petrus Blackshell wrote:The only issue is... defining "risk" as a number. What would you use as an objective heuristic for risk measurement in Eve? There is a risk figure in game, called "system securtiy". Starts 1.0 and ends at -1.0 No problem, you are welcome. This could be part of it, but it's not entirely true. Gunless T1 Merlins farming FW plexes are taking a much lower risk than other people take to carebear in hisec (Hulk mining for example). Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Vincent Athena
V.I.C.E.
974
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:49:00 -
[7] - Quote
I's say the same thing: ISK per hour, just as a loss. Everything that is risk can be "bought back" with ISK. Ships, modules, clones, implants. Even sec status can be referenced to ISK. Just take the time it takes to recover the sec status and multiply by the ISK per hour you would have been making if you were not out working on your sec status.
The difficulty here is loss is much more unpredictable. You go for months in null, then lose your entire home when your alliance collapses. Traders have a sudden market upset. This makes figuring out the potential ISK per hour of loss quite difficult. http://vincentoneve.wordpress.com/ |
Rordan D'Kherr
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
75
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:53:00 -
[8] - Quote
Petrus Blackshell wrote: This could be part of it, but it's not entirely true. Gunless T1 Merlins farming FW plexes are taking a much lower risk than other people take to carebear in hisec (Hulk mining for example).
What "risk" is a highsec hulk facing? Can only think about being ganked, but that is ..... |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9362
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:53:00 -
[9] - Quote
Risk = cost +ù probability. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1482
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Posted - 2012.09.05 15:59:00 -
[10] - Quote
Rordan D'Kherr wrote:Petrus Blackshell wrote: This could be part of it, but it's not entirely true. Gunless T1 Merlins farming FW plexes are taking a much lower risk than other people take to carebear in hisec (Hulk mining for example).
What "risk" is a highsec hulk facing? Can only think about being ganked, but that is ..... Correct, it is low-risk. Income from mining is not that high, either, though, so as risk/reward is a fraction, it may actually come up to be similar to that of other activities commonly viewed as more profitable or active.
Tippia wrote:Risk = cost +ù probability. While this is true, how do you measure (for example) the probability per hour that a Hulk gets ganked? Or, worse, complex probabilities for stuff like the market collapsing on you. Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
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Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
314
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:03:00 -
[11] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Risk = cost +ù probability.
Can you expand on the probability part? No trolling, no contention, I'm actually interested in an attempt to assign mathematical properties to the whole "risk vs reward" argument.
And is that equation the same for reward?.... |
Paul Oliver
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
729
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:03:00 -
[12] - Quote
I'd have to go with some formula that measures the amount of isk I could theoretically make from an action versus the amount of time it would take me to farm back the amount of isk I would lose should I fail. Of course if I were in a player corp that could help negate that second factor then it wouldn't really be an issue. Honestly I don't think one can just slap an objective formula on something as subjective as an individual's risk threshold, in the end it boils down to what an individual thinks is fun, and how much loss they're willing to accept before it ceases to be fun, which in a game with a death penalty as high as this one's is not very much for some. "Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must undergo the fatigues of supporting it." - Thomas Paine |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9362
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:05:00 -
[13] - Quote
Petrus Blackshell wrote:While this is true, how do you measure (for example) the probability per hour that a Hulk gets ganked? Or, worse, complex probabilities for stuff like the market collapsing on you. The problem with complex probabilities is that hey can be hedged so we go straight into actual-banking business theory on that one; the simple ones don't really allow for that, but on the other hand, they're easy (if you have the data).
Since you measure reward in ISK/h, we should aim at having the risk on the same scale, meaning our probability will be measured in losses per hour. If you want to calculate, say, the risk for a Hulk miner being suicide ganked, calculate the number of Hulk-hours spent across all of highsec in a day and the number of Hulk losses across all of highsec in a day. Divide the latter with the former and then divide by 24. We now have our per-hour probability. Then multiply with the cost of a Hulk to get our total risk.
e: clarifications. GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1482
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:07:00 -
[14] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Petrus Blackshell wrote:While this is true, how do you measure (for example) the probability per hour that a Hulk gets ganked? Or, worse, complex probabilities for stuff like the market collapsing on you. The problem with complex probabilities is that hey can be hedged; the simple ones don't really allow for that, but on the other hand, they're easy (if you have the data). Since you measure reward in ISK/h, we should aim at having the risk on the same scale, meaning our probability will be measured in losses per hour. If you want to calculate, say, the risk for a Hulk miner being suicide ganked, calculate the number of Hulk-hours spent across all of highsec in a day and the number of Hulk losses across all of highsec in a day. Divide the latter with the former and then divide by 24. Then multiply with the cost of a Hulk. Sounds like a job for/in collaboration with CCP Diagoras! Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
124
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:08:00 -
[15] - Quote
The thing is it entirely depends on your competence. Missioning in lo sec or npc null for example holds zero risk for people who aren't idiots. Mining in hi sec holds risk for people who are idiots. Really rather than risk what people mean is "how much do i need to pay attention". |
Mal Ishos
Red Federation
22
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:10:00 -
[16] - Quote
You can't possibly have an objective discussion about Risk vs Reward in a game about internet spaceships. Risk is subjective. Reward is subjective. However, objectively, this thread is terrible and the OP should feel terrible for it's existence. |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
314
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:10:00 -
[17] - Quote
Petrus Blackshell wrote: While this is true, how do you measure (for example) the probability per hour that a Hulk gets ganked? Or, worse, complex probabilities for stuff like the market collapsing on you.
I think I know... but it'd involve lengthy research and data.
You could, for the sake of time and efficiency in analysis and reporting, select 4 systems known in highsec, lowsec, and nul (separately, so your total is 12 systems for the study, 4 systems to a cohort) for heavy mining (i.e. the most miners ACTIVELY in belts).
Once you have your systems selected, you'd need to (by some miracle) find a 100% accurate killboard or database of ships (namely, ship types) attacked and destroyed in system. Attacked versus destroyed is important here, as it defined successful ganks versus fail ganks. Ship types would be limited to mining/industrial ships (orca, iteron, hulk, whatever).
(Note: with things like iterons and other smaller transport vessels, a margin of error would need to be added to this study to make up for those who are not necessarily moving ore from belt to station, but are just traders.)
OK, so you got your database. Now, you calculate, on average, the amount of ships destroyed in each systems (ships, again, being mining vessels) for each cohort over a set amount of time. Let's make it...oooh a month? Combine results for the four systems and you should be able to create an average based on your results that can be counted as the probability of a mining vessel being ganked in highsec, low sec, and nulsec.
If you're really bored, you can break statistics down per ship type. At least I THINK that's how you could get the probability you were talking about.
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Hypercake Mix
Magical Rainbow Bakery
26
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:12:00 -
[18] - Quote
I'm not sure if it can be quantified, since nearly all risk in EVE is player-generated, varying wildly due to EVE being a game and not a mandatory life activity. |
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1482
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:13:00 -
[19] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:You can't possibly have an objective discussion about Risk vs Reward in a game about internet spaceships. Risk is subjective. Reward is subjective. However, objectively, this thread is terrible and the OP should feel terrible for it's existence. Thank you. Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Mal Ishos
Red Federation
27
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:16:00 -
[20] - Quote
Petrus Blackshell wrote:Mal Ishos wrote:You can't possibly have an objective discussion about Risk vs Reward in a game about internet spaceships. Risk is subjective. Reward is subjective. However, objectively, this thread is terrible and the OP should feel terrible for it's existence. Thank you.
You can't have a productive discussion about something that is so subjective.
Oh, wait, yes you can.
When you're a complete toolbag.
Carry on. |
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Paul Oliver
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
729
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:16:00 -
[21] - Quote
Posting in a "left brain analysis killing right brain enjoyment" thread. "Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must undergo the fatigues of supporting it." - Thomas Paine |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
315
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:18:00 -
[22] - Quote
Paul Oliver wrote:Posting in a "left brain analysis killing right brain enjoyment" thread.
Well Eve's player base never really consider enjoyment a factor when they can prove themselves right and bash someone they think is wrong :p
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Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9365
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:27:00 -
[23] - Quote
Mal Ishos wrote:You can't possibly have an objective discussion about Risk vs Reward in a game about internet spaceships. Risk is subjective. Reward is subjective. Yes you can. Risk isn't subjective GÇö it's actually objective as hell, if you have the data. Risk perception is subjective and shock-full of biases, but the risk itself is actually pretty darn specific.
Same goes for reward: it's entirely possible to measure it objectively. The subjective part is how you perceive the value of what you measure.
So I'd say that risk:reward is more than sufficiently objective GÇö effort:fun is a different matterGǪ
GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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Kahega Amielden
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
509
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:29:00 -
[24] - Quote
It's easy. Relative reward of different activities should be balanced so that there is a proper incentive to taking on more risk. If, for example, noone runs missions in lowsec but everyone runs missions in hisec, then missions are broken from a risk/reward perspective and something should be done to make the latter less appealing or the former more appealing.
Quote: Yes you can. Risk isn't subjective GÇö it's actually objective as hell, if you have the data. Risk perception is subjective and shock-full of biases, but the risk itself is actually pretty darn specific.
Same goes for reward: it's entirely possible to measure it objectively. The subjective part is how you perceive the value of what you measure.
So I'd say that risk:reward is more than sufficiently objective GÇö effort:fun is a different matterGǪ
It's objective but extremely complicated, because the actual risk of loss depends on how much you're risking, how many precautions you take, and how prone to mistakes you are, just to name a few. It's objective, but I don't see how it could actually be quantified in any real sense. |
Karl Hobb
Stellar Ore Refinery and Crematorium
529
|
Posted - 2012.09.05 16:30:00 -
[25] - Quote
Not to derail the conversation or anything, but is this supposed to be chock-full with some sort of Euro accent? Nothing Found |
Anslo
BHEI Galactic Construction The Unforgiven Alliance
315
|
Posted - 2012.09.05 16:30:00 -
[26] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Mal Ishos wrote:You can't possibly have an objective discussion about Risk vs Reward in a game about internet spaceships. Risk is subjective. Reward is subjective. Yes you can. Risk isn't subjective GÇö it's actually objective as hell, if you have the data. Risk perception is subjective and shock-full of biases, but the risk itself is actually pretty darn specific. Same goes for reward: it's entirely possible to measure it objectively. The subjective part is how you perceive the value of what you measure. So I'd say that risk:reward is more than sufficiently objective GÇö effort:fun is a different matterGǪ
Wait so is my plan to quantify risk for miners on page 1 actually right then?? |
FloppieTheBanjoClown
The Skunkworks The Marmite Collective
2324
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:31:00 -
[27] - Quote
I don't think there's a way to measure it.
The general idea is that the greatest reward should come with the greatest risk. A highsec mission runner doesn't risk a lot, and shouldn't reap the same rewards as someone who takes an equally-expensive ship into nullsec for ratting. Those who invest significant amounts of isk and effort into operations deserve the highest level rewards. The Skunkworks is recruiting. -áhttps://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1540711#post1540711 |
Mal Ishos
Red Federation
28
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:31:00 -
[28] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Mal Ishos wrote:You can't possibly have an objective discussion about Risk vs Reward in a game about internet spaceships. Risk is subjective. Reward is subjective. Yes you can. Risk isn't subjective GÇö it's actually objective as hell, if you have the data. Risk perception is subjective and shock-full of biases, but the risk itself is actually pretty darn specific. Same goes for reward: it's entirely possible to measure it objectively. The subjective part is how you perceive the value of what you measure. So I'd say that risk:reward is more than sufficiently objective GÇö effort:fun is a different matterGǪ
That's a lot of words to disagree with me, but you're still wrong.
What you consider rewarding, I may not. What I consider a risk, you may not. For some, the risk and the reward are the same thing. There's also the problem of defining what the actual rewards and the risk are. You can't do that in a video game about internet spaceships. You can try, but you will fail. |
Petrus Blackshell
Rifterlings Damu'Khonde
1485
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:32:00 -
[29] - Quote
Kahega Amielden wrote:It's easy. Relative reward of different activities should be balanced so that there is a proper incentive to taking on more risk. If, for example, noone runs missions in lowsec but everyone runs missions in hisec, then missions are broken from a risk/reward perspective and something should be done to make the latter less appealing or the former more appealing. This isn't a discussion about balance, but rather about simply measuring risk/reward. Some activities with very poor risk/reward can still be balanced via the effort, fun, or other subjective stuff involved (e.g. jumping into Great Wildlands with a new faction fit frigate) .
Rifterlings - Small gang low/nullsec combat corp specializing in fast paced combat in frigates and cruisers. US and EU Timezone veterans and newbies alike are welcome to join. Come chat in the "we fly rifters" in-game channel. Free frigates and fittings for members! |
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
9365
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Posted - 2012.09.05 16:32:00 -
[30] - Quote
Karl Hobb wrote:Not to derail the conversation or anything, but is this supposed to be chock-full with some sort of Euro accent? No. Just ye olde GÇ£false friendsGÇ¥ in action.
Anslo wrote:Wait so is my plan to quantify risk for miners on page 1 actually right then?? It's a bit over-complicated, but close enoughGǪ
GÇ£If you're not willing to fight for what you have in GëívGëí you don't deserve it, and you will lose it.GÇ¥
Get a good start: newbie skill plan.
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