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Dzil
Caldari Caldari Independent Navy Reserve The Fourth District
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:10:00 -
[1]
TLDR: EVE is dying.
The soliloquy:
Software lifecycle is inevitable. Some last longer than others, but at the end of the day we all know that one day, EVE will end. Its players know it, its developers know it, and perhaps most relevant to discussion, its shareholders know it. Because of this, most savvy companies go through something I'll call horizon planning. In short, a sizeable chunk of money (10-30%) is siphoned from your cash cow, mature products, in order to create tomorrow's next cash cow. Inversely, most of your resources to create new features, ideas, etc are put into your newer or growing products, rather than your mature ones.
As a consumer, we meet this sort of thing with mixed feelings. We know that EVE could be a better game if the development money being used towards WOD and DUST were instead resources further developing EVE. On the other, we cannot deny the aging that has beset EVE: anecdotal evidence suggests players are tired of the same game, and their subscription numbers have remained relatively flat in spite of releasing 1-2 expansions per year. And the development of WOD and DUST, something new, will certainly benefit and in fact may only be possible with the infusion of extra cash from EVE.
For me, what's difficult in this particular situation is that part of the value of the EVE universe is in its persistence. Upon accepting CCPs participation in horizon planning, that they themselves are making funeral arrangements for EVE, there's suddenly no motivation to play anymore. Many players have their EVEMON skill plan stretched out to 5 years or more... but what if the game were to shut down in 5 years. Would you still bother to train all those skills? Would you still willingly pay 600 dollars to CCP over that period?
So to wrap it up and rehash, the increase in monetization and decrease in features is a normal part of horizon planning, and a clear indicator that EVE is done. We can only hope that with all this spare cash, WOD will be awesome. Dust will be a bust, but that's a topic for another day.
Retired from corp sales. Time to spend some of this on pretty explosions :) |
Miner Jethro
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:12:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Miner Jethro on 01/07/2011 16:12:33 Posted by a dev himself: http://i1115.photobucket.com/albums/k547/mytzso/the_place.jpg
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:14:00 -
[3]
I'm not sure I buy the hypothesis here since subscription numbers were rising pretty evenly UNTIL CCP started the great siphoning.
The dip relates to the 18 months announcement last year, I believe.
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Maximillian Dragonard
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:19:00 -
[4]
When funds began to funnel out of Eve to support WoD and Dust development, the "end of days" cycle began. We're seeing less "internet spaceships" and more avatar effort. Cash starts running shorter, we get a rushed Incarna in order to introduce the MT shop. Things aren't looking so good for the game I started playing..
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:22:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Miilla on 01/07/2011 16:22:14
Originally by: Maximillian Dragonard When funds began to funnel out of Eve to support WoD and Dust development, the "end of days" cycle began. We're seeing less "internet spaceships" and more avatar effort. Cash starts running shorter, we get a rushed Incarna in order to introduce the MT shop. Things aren't looking so good for the game I started playing..
Here is lists of MMO games, probably not 100% accurate but it's a starting point.
I'm sure we all can find somebody else to pay for fun.
http://www.freemmorpglist.com/ http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/gameId/0 http://www.onrpg.com/MMO/mmolist.html
Plenty to chose from, and plenty in development/soon to be released.
Why cry at CCP's ankles when all they want is to teabag you and laugh.
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Solstice Project
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:22:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Maximillian Dragonard Things aren't looking so good for the game I started playing..
SO IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT !!!!
(just had to do it)
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Jenn aSide
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:25:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Dzil
TLDR: EVE is dying.
Isn't it always? :)
But, very well put together OP, I think it rings true. I also think at least some in CCP see DUST as a new hook for eve and vice versa, don't know if it will work out that was as console FPS players are different from eve players, but who know's.
CCP wouldn't be making DUST if they weren't thinking long term for EVE because of the link. I know CCP cares about EVE, but I still think they are taking big risks and maybe expanding too fast.
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stoicfaux
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:29:00 -
[8]
I disagree. CCP doesn't appear to be putting Eve into maintenance mode (aka cash cow) or creating Eve 2 (especially given how not well MMO sequels do.)
Instead of accepting the status quo strategies of building a sequel or of sunsetting the game and keeping it alive on minimal resources as a cash cow, CCP is striking out in a new direction, namely the integration of WiS and DUST and Eve in an attempt to attract new blood into Eve in order to prolong Eve's life while respecting quality of life.
Granted, the current lull in meaningful Eve expansions would seem to contradict my point, until you remember that Team Gridlock and Team BFF are improving Eve's foundation, and Incarna is mainly foundation work for Dust and WiS.
However, there is still a long way to go and a lot of details to work out, but I think CCP is committed to future of Eve. In the meantime, we're going to have to suffer from a lack of new shinies until/if CCP gets WiS and Dust moving under their own momentum.
----- Request for Eve Development Roadmap. Let CSM know that we want one.
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ScreenWipe
Caldari State War Academy
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:31:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Dzil
I came in on the banana boat
I thought as much! Perhaps you should depart the same way!
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:33:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Miilla on 01/07/2011 16:34:04
I wonder what cluster WoD is going to run on. Hmmm.
Given that cash liquidity is , practically non-existent, given that WoD is overbudget and overtime.
I wonder.
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stoicfaux
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:39:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Miilla Edited by: Miilla on 01/07/2011 16:34:04
I wonder what cluster WoD is going to run on. Hmmm.
Given that cash liquidity is , practically non-existent, given that WoD is overbudget and overtime.
I wonder.
Loads and/or venture capital money. Using Eve's hardware for WoD (or Dust) would remove Eve as a cash cow and source of collateral for any loans.
----- Request for Eve Development Roadmap. Let CSM know that we want one.
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Imryn Xaran
Caldari Coherent Light Enterprises
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:39:00 -
[12]
There is a hole in your theory. If CCP is in fact planning for it's next cash cow why are they developing Dust? As I understand it the main feature of Dust is the tie in with EVE. It seems to me that if EVE dies then Dust will follow shortly after it.
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:45:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Imryn Xaran There is a hole in your theory. If CCP is in fact planning for it's next cash cow why are they developing Dust? As I understand it the main feature of Dust is the tie in with EVE. It seems to me that if EVE dies then Dust will follow shortly after it.
Dont know why everybody thinks Dust will die if Eve does. Eve and Dust are connected, Dust can be disconnected and Eve mocked out to provide NPC missions/AI if Eve dies.
How do you think they tested Dust without the connection? They mocked it.
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Imryn Xaran
Caldari Coherent Light Enterprises
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:47:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Miilla
Originally by: Imryn Xaran There is a hole in your theory. If CCP is in fact planning for it's next cash cow why are they developing Dust? As I understand it the main feature of Dust is the tie in with EVE. It seems to me that if EVE dies then Dust will follow shortly after it.
Dont know why everybody thinks Dust will die if Eve does. Eve and Dust are connected, Dust can be disconnected and Eve mocked out to provide NPC missions/AI if Eve dies.
How do you think they tested Dust without the connection? They mocked it.
Sure it can, but then it is just a cookie cutter fps game without a known franchise or track record to draw players in.
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Indusy
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:47:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Dzil Upon accepting CCPs participation in horizon planning, that they themselves are making funeral arrangements for EVE
Everyone and Everything will eventually die, but EVE. EVE will outlast us all.
Take a break from the game, enjoy the summer and come back when Dust and Full featured Incarna are released; Then tell us who's dying again.
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:48:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Imryn Xaran
Originally by: Miilla
Originally by: Imryn Xaran There is a hole in your theory. If CCP is in fact planning for it's next cash cow why are they developing Dust? As I understand it the main feature of Dust is the tie in with EVE. It seems to me that if EVE dies then Dust will follow shortly after it.
Dont know why everybody thinks Dust will die if Eve does. Eve and Dust are connected, Dust can be disconnected and Eve mocked out to provide NPC missions/AI if Eve dies.
How do you think they tested Dust without the connection? They mocked it.
Sure it can, but then it is just a cookie cutter fps game without a known franchise or track record to draw players in.
And that is different from now because?
Not every Dust customer is an Eve customer nor do they care.
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Indusy
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:55:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Indusy on 01/07/2011 16:58:59
Originally by: Miilla
[Yellow]
Dont know why everybody thinks Dust will die if Eve does. Eve and Dust are connected, Dust can be disconnected and Eve mocked out to provide NPC missions/AI if Eve dies.
Because Dust and EVE will share corporations, planets, chat channels, game mechanics (supplying, transport, support), community and progression.
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:56:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Miilla on 01/07/2011 16:57:01
Originally by: Indusy
Originally by: Miilla
Dont know why everybody thinks Dust will die if Eve does. Eve and Dust are connected, Dust can be disconnected and Eve mocked out to provide NPC missions/AI if Eve dies.
Because Dust and EVE will share corporations, planets, chat channels, game mechanics (supplying, transport, support), community and progression.
And ofcourse they cannot be replaced by a small database and scripts.
Infact, CCP have already done this with LIVE EVENTS; they stopped live events, replaced them with a script called INCURSIONS.
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Indusy
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Posted - 2011.07.01 16:59:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Indusy on 01/07/2011 16:59:19
Quote: And ofcourse they cannot be replaced by a small database and scripts.
They could replace EVE players with NPCS? according to your logic they could turn EVE ONLINE into a single player game too
sorry for the ninja edit, here's the answer ^
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 17:01:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Miilla on 01/07/2011 17:01:48
Originally by: Indusy
Quote: And ofcourse they cannot be replaced by a small database and scripts.
They could replace EVE players with NPCS? according to your logic they could turn EVE ONLINE into a single player game too
sorry for the ninja edit, here's the answer ^
With respect to the Dust FPS, yes they could, simulate planet PI, simulate missions, as I said, they already done this with LIVE EVENTS -> INCURSIONS. From manual live players to automated scripts/NPC's.
Orbital bombardment, sure, they can do that with NPC's. Doesn't take a leap of genius to see it and it has been done before, again how do you think they would test a lot of Dust without Eve? Sure small scale player testing, but also automated.
Dust does not depend on players "chatting" lol.
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Indusy
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Posted - 2011.07.01 17:09:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Miilla With respect to the Dust FPS, yes they could, simulate planet PI, simulate missions, as I said, they already done this with LIVE EVENTS -> INCURSIONS. From manual live players to automated scripts/NPC's.
Orbital bombardment, sure, they can do that with NPC's. Doesn't take a leap of genius to see it and it has been done before, again how do you think they would test a lot of Dust without Eve? Sure small scale player testing, but also automated.
Dust does not depend on players "chatting" lol.
[/Yellow]
They have EVE players. They don't need scripts.
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Miilla
Minmatar Hulkageddon Orphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.01 17:13:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Indusy
Originally by: Miilla With respect to the Dust FPS, yes they could, simulate planet PI, simulate missions, as I said, they already done this with LIVE EVENTS -> INCURSIONS. From manual live players to automated scripts/NPC's.
Orbital bombardment, sure, they can do that with NPC's. Doesn't take a leap of genius to see it and it has been done before, again how do you think they would test a lot of Dust without Eve? Sure small scale player testing, but also automated.
Dust does not depend on players "chatting" lol.
They have EVE players. They don't need scripts.
For now, but they CAN disconnect them for whatever reason they want, whether its financial, technical, who cares. They can.
They had live players for generating live events, but they removed that too and automated it for Incursions. [/Yellow]
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Savage Angel
Gallente Gambler's Inc.
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Posted - 2011.07.01 17:25:00 -
[23]
Every MMO is dying from the day it is published. Just ask the forums. Also, it is literally true as there will be an end.
However, you do not spend the money to integrate a new console game with your online world if you are planning on abandoning the world.
End-of-cycle planning does lead to taking money from existing products, but the equation is not perfectly reversible. You may split the corporate profits between project to launch new ones, with no intent to end the established ones.
In CCP's case, it is to diversify. They would be shirking their responsibilities if they bet the company totally on Eve. Then again, in the OP's scenario they are betting the whole future on WoD. Neither is the case. I am sure they would love to have both Eve and Dust running strong in the same persistent world, and have a second MMO. That would give them a better outlook for the future.
If they meant to shutter Eve, Dust would not exist. And no company is going to launch into the complete unknown of a new genre of MMO on a new engine without a stable, long-term game to support the company.
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