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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.09.02 09:46:00 -
[1]
The latest Price Indices are now available and apparently confirm my long held suspicion the Eve economy is in a serious depression beyond the usually summer slump.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.09.02 10:09:00 -
[2]
The Technetium price movement supports my long stated opinion that a de-facto cartel was in operation, despite numerous denials. The price fell as the NC dumped stocks to raise finance and has still not recovered despite the likely production disruption. I think a fall in demand for T2 production is the only rational explanation, and this also account for the rise in the secondary producer index.
The presumption has long been the NC was a long standing major producer of T2 goods. The assumption must be that some T2 BPO must have gone out of production, either from lost opportunity, becoming trapped or perhaps even destroyed during POS loss. This does have implications for the call for the elimination of T2 BPOs and acts confirms my previously expressed opinion that their removal will result in significant T2 prices rises.
The continuous fall in primary producer indexes suggests an economy in real trouble, because the depression is against a trend of disrupted production and on going action against mining bots.
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Cyniac
Gallente Twilight Star Rangers
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Posted - 2011.09.02 11:08:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Cyniac on 02/09/2011 11:08:36 So... how is it that with a dataset that only runs through to July you can predict what is happening after the summer? Clearly it documents the summer slump but not the time beyond it.
Additionally when you have a report that explicitly states that T2 ship production is constant (which represents a good chunk of T2 production) I think it is a little bit risky to assume that there is a drop in T2 manufacturing (which, as a T2 manufacturer I can tell you - I cannot keep up with all the orders I'm getting - but hey maybe I'm just lucky).
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Max Flipper
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Posted - 2011.09.02 14:57:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
The Technetium price movement supports my long stated opinion that a de-facto cartel was in operation, despite numerous denials. The price fell as the NC dumped stocks to raise finance and has still not recovered despite the likely production disruption. I think a fall in demand for T2 production is the only rational explanation, and this also account for the rise in the secondary producer index.
The presumption has long been the NC was a long standing major producer of T2 goods. The assumption must be that some T2 BPO must have gone out of production, either from lost opportunity, becoming trapped or perhaps even destroyed during POS loss. This does have implications for the call for the elimination of T2 BPOs and acts confirms my previously expressed opinion that their removal will result in significant T2 prices rises.
The continuous fall in primary producer indexes suggests an economy in real trouble, because the depression is against a trend of disrupted production and on going action against mining bots.
Saying that data confirms your views doesn't make it any more true
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.09.02 15:36:00 -
[5]
The ever climbing prices of Tc is mainly driven by speculation, it greatly exaggerates the natural incline that there would be (see the Tc post in MD why this is so)
The *main* reason for the Tc panic drop in price was due to the speculators pulling out (dumping their stockpiles) not NC/DRF differences in handling Tc. Why did they pull out? - Because of rumors of a nerf to Tc moon distribution (scarcity) in an upcomming patch/expansion. That didn't happen - and now look at the prices
------
As for the tired old idea of a NC cartel...
Try and think for just a second... Try thinking about herding cats... It's simply not doable to maintain such a cartel - To have everyone "play ball" (and not cheat each other)
A cartel on that scale in EVE - Impossible. Simple as.
Not that those who want to believe will change their mind
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Caliph Muhammed
Caldari Caldari Naval Criminal Investigative Service
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Posted - 2011.09.02 17:35:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Caliph Muhammed on 02/09/2011 17:41:23
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
The latest Price Indices are now available and apparently confirm my long held suspicion the Eve economy is in a serious depression beyond the usually summer slump.
This is true. The economy is on a serious downturn. So much in fact I had considered suspending trade until it picked up again. You can buy at a very nice price and have major hubs be equal to our lower very quickly. More than i've ever seen since I started playing/trading in eve. You can make money currently but you can also lose a large amount as well.
As it so happens I recieved a war dec and issued out two more in response so i'm going into pvp mode for now. It'll give me something to do as the lackluster margins were begining to become tedious. I've been saving ISK since I started playing. Whats the point of saving it if you aren't ever going to put it to use and blow some ships up or have yours destroyed?
Im hoping eventually large investors will begin fighting over the new lower prices and the demand will allow larger profit margins to be made.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.09.02 18:25:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Caliph Muhammed This is true. The economy is on a serious downturn. So much in fact I had considered suspending trade until it picked up again. You can buy at a very nice price and have major hubs be equal to our lower very quickly. More than i've ever seen since I started playing/trading in eve. You can make money currently but you can also lose a large amount as well.
I don't play EvE a lot ATM but I logged on and found 2 nicely trending upwards markets in about 10 seconds. Maybe switch to markets that don't tank?
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.09.02 18:35:00 -
[8]
Again, there was never a tech "cartel". However, there were obviously stockpiles that were cashed in after the NC was routed, which I assume were accumulated out of laziness rather than "price control". Combined with the usual seasonal lull and nerf fears we saw a 20% drop in price from a speculative peak.
I wasn't holding at the time, but mostly only because I was playing elsewhere. I did advise a few people to buy at 115, so I hope they, managed to get out in time (I doubt it...probably why I haven't heard from them since :P:P).
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Caliph Muhammed
Caldari Caldari Naval Criminal Investigative Service
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Posted - 2011.09.02 20:38:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Caliph Muhammed This is true. The economy is on a serious downturn. So much in fact I had considered suspending trade until it picked up again. You can buy at a very nice price and have major hubs be equal to our lower very quickly. More than i've ever seen since I started playing/trading in eve. You can make money currently but you can also lose a large amount as well.
I don't play EvE a lot ATM but I logged on and found 2 nicely trending upwards markets in about 10 seconds. Maybe switch to markets that don't tank?
You're right there are markets available to make money if you have the logistics. I prefer high volume markets. Those are more limited in choice. It's not that the market tanked per se as you can still make good money with retail selling. But if one wants a safety net through established buy orders, which when im investing others money I shoot for, those have dropped off considerably.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.09.03 07:30:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Caliph Muhammed
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Caliph Muhammed This is true. The economy is on a serious downturn. So much in fact I had considered suspending trade until it picked up again. You can buy at a very nice price and have major hubs be equal to our lower very quickly. More than i've ever seen since I started playing/trading in eve. You can make money currently but you can also lose a large amount as well.
I don't play EvE a lot ATM but I logged on and found 2 nicely trending upwards markets in about 10 seconds. Maybe switch to markets that don't tank?
You're right there are markets available to make money if you have the logistics. I prefer high volume markets. Those are more limited in choice. It's not that the market tanked per se as you can still make good money with retail selling. But if one wants a safety net through established buy orders, which when im investing others money I shoot for, those have dropped off considerably.
Two items don't make a Bull market. The fact is the whole economy is on a seriously bearish streak which is showing no signs of ending.
I concur is beyond the usual summer slump, which usually ends in august. This year it started early, was deeper and shows no sign of ending yet.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.09.03 08:47:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Originally by: Caliph Muhammed
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Caliph Muhammed This is true. The economy is on a serious downturn. So much in fact I had considered suspending trade until it picked up again. You can buy at a very nice price and have major hubs be equal to our lower very quickly. More than i've ever seen since I started playing/trading in eve. You can make money currently but you can also lose a large amount as well.
I don't play EvE a lot ATM but I logged on and found 2 nicely trending upwards markets in about 10 seconds. Maybe switch to markets that don't tank?
You're right there are markets available to make money if you have the logistics. I prefer high volume markets. Those are more limited in choice. It's not that the market tanked per se as you can still make good money with retail selling. But if one wants a safety net through established buy orders, which when im investing others money I shoot for, those have dropped off considerably.
Two items don't make a Bull market. The fact is the whole economy is on a seriously bearish streak which is showing no signs of ending.
I concur is beyond the usual summer slump, which usually ends in august. This year it started early, was deeper and shows no sign of ending yet.
Opened the EvE-Tools, looked at planetary index and saw the same trend that I used to buy 2 PI items and make a tidy profit on them:
Look at the bottom "W" formation around middle of August. The second "U" of the "W" is where you buy, you just have to see that price dips to a weekly support, forms a BUOB or DBLHC or PB and buy.
If that "W" was slanted with the second "U" of the "W" below the first, then you'd get a signal for a nice next uptrend, but that's hard to get in August even for RL markets.
Anyway, the bearish tralalah is because this expansion has been a flop, therefore demand has been lower than usual.
Also, markets won't ever repeat themselves, they do tend to anticipate or lag on yearly cycles because traders try to outplay and anticipate each other.
Example: Hulkageddon. The first times you'd predictably know when to start making / buying Hulks to resell later at much higher price. Then year after year people "got it" and started buying / making Hulks earlier. At a certain point the BPO holders formed a cartel to squeeze out more profit. This is the beautiful self-optimizing nature of the markets.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
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