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Clambumper June
Republic University Minmatar Republic
25
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Posted - 2013.04.09 01:19:00 -
[1] - Quote
Over the last few weeks I have seen PLEX rest around the 510 to 514 million p/u in Jita. Every time the quantity in Sell Orders gets to a level where it appears that the PLEX market may go above 515 mil p/u someone throws on several 40+ stacks or a stack of 100 to keep the PLEX index in the range of 510 to 514 million. Thoughts?
For the trolls I know will come, my tinfoil hat is on and no I don't own any PLEX but was considering it for short term retention of funds. |
DelBoy Trades
Trotter Independent Traders.
523
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Posted - 2013.04.09 03:04:00 -
[2] - Quote
It's the Invisible Hand. Damn nature, you scary! |
Britta Nolen
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2013.04.09 03:53:00 -
[3] - Quote
It is well known that CCP does not like for plex to head back into 600m isk region. Every time it starts going that high, PLEX sale inbound. |
Alex Grison
Grison Interstellar
275
|
Posted - 2013.04.09 04:55:00 -
[4] - Quote
Just an FWI.
Hats made out of tinfoil are completely noneffective.
In reality they track you based off of the electromagnetic signature of your kidneys.
So for any protection you should wrap tin-foil ( lead foil would be more effective ) around your entire waist and lower back |
Samroski
Games Inc.
180
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Posted - 2013.04.09 05:30:00 -
[5] - Quote
Even though CCP announced a couple of years ago that they may interfere with PLEX, they confirmed (I think at the last fanfest) that there had been no need to do this. So that was about a year ago and since then there has been no update afaik.
Cheap PLEX drives may be viewed as manipulation, though dumping scores of PLEXes on the market is more like it :) Happiness is a warm gun, mama. |
mechtech
Ice Liberation Army
290
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Posted - 2013.04.09 07:02:00 -
[6] - Quote
I'll just put it out there. I absolutely think it's too far out to think that CCP is dumping stacks of PLEX onto the market.
CCP PLEX manipulation is in the form of PLEX sales. I think most of us underestimate the number of players willing to buy a stack of 12 plex for a 10% discount or whatever CCP offers for these things. Massive amounts of PLEX enters the system when these sales fire off. Add to that the reinvigorated bot bannings, and high sec mission income nerf, and PLEX price seems to be stabilized.
Of course, if someone (goons) were to come in and spike the price again, I'd welcome it I mean, once this PLEX sale is over, CCP is out of the picture for another 6 months or so. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
799
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Posted - 2013.04.09 14:00:00 -
[7] - Quote
Clambumper June wrote:Every time the quantity in Sell Orders gets to a level where it appears that the PLEX market may go above 515 mil p/u someone throws on several 40+ stacks or a stack of 100 to keep the PLEX index in the range of 510 to 514 million. Thoughts?.
My thoughts would be that someone who bought en masse at a low price off a sale is selling around 515 as it represents 20m/unit (pre-fees) profit, and that it's nothing more insidious than that.
mechtech wrote:Of course, if someone (goons) were to come in and spike the price again, I'd welcome it
Now why the hell would we do that when we can just bottom feed off the sales like everyone else. Mynnna for CSM 8 |
Daimar Lavode
12
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Posted - 2013.04.09 14:26:00 -
[8] - Quote
PLEX being on sale pretty much nonstop since Xmas is the reason. I think CCP knows exactly how many subscriptions they gain or lose when PLEX prices hit 500M, 515M, 550M, etc. so they are going to keep the sales coming for Fanfest, Patch Day Sale, summer fun, back to school or whatever reason they need to so that prices stay about where they are now. |
Adoris Nolen
Sama Guild
8
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Posted - 2013.04.10 04:15:00 -
[9] - Quote
^^Yup^
IIRC; Plex is one of the major factors for the newly invogarated bans. CCP is seizing isk and game time from permabanned botting accounts. The seized assets in addition to the plex sales are being used to keep prices down. Reduced demand from the banned bots also helps with the price. This strategy has worked pretty good in reducing plex from around 650m in october to 510 in april. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
805
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Posted - 2013.04.10 04:22:00 -
[10] - Quote
Adoris Nolen wrote:^^Yup^
IIRC; Plex is one of the major factors for the newly invogarated bans. CCP is seizing isk and game time from permabanned botting accounts. The seized assets in addition to the plex sales are being used to keep prices down. Reduced demand from the banned bots also helps with the price. This strategy has worked pretty good in reducing plex from around 650m in october to 510 in april.
The reason plex have fallen since october is almost certainly that they removed or at least forced underground the "faucet" (and I put that in quotes because I mean it in a figurative sense of 'holy **** all the isk' not the usual 'adding new isk to the game' sense) that was Faction Warfare, combined with fairly relentless pressure in the form of sales every couple of weeks.
They have the PLEX confiscated from banned accounts to use in the manner that you describe, but every time they've ever talked about it it always seems to be a sort of "last ditch" thing, and they prefer to use other means (sales and plex consuming offers) as their primary regulatory tool. Mynnna for CSM 8 |
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Adoris Nolen
Sama Guild
8
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Posted - 2013.04.10 04:34:00 -
[11] - Quote
I could have sworn I read a blue poster state that they had seized about 10k plex back in october.
mynnna wrote: The reason plex have fallen since october is almost certainly that they removed or at least forced underground the "faucet" (and I put that in quotes because I mean it in a figurative sense of 'holy **** all the isk' not the usual 'adding new isk to the game' sense) that was Faction Warfare, combined with fairly relentless pressure in the form of sales every couple of weeks.
I thought FW was at least isk nuetral or isk loss because the rewards are in LP which require isk to turn into faction items. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
806
|
Posted - 2013.04.10 05:11:00 -
[12] - Quote
Adoris Nolen wrote:I could have sworn I read a blue poster state that they had seized about 10k plex back in october.
Like I said, the existence of them doesn't automatically mean they're using them that way.
Adoris Nolen wrote:mynnna wrote: The reason plex have fallen since october is almost certainly that they removed or at least forced underground the "faucet" (and I put that in quotes because I mean it in a figurative sense of 'holy **** all the isk' not the usual 'adding new isk to the game' sense) that was Faction Warfare, combined with fairly relentless pressure in the form of sales every couple of weeks.
I thought FW was at least isk nuetral or isk loss because the rewards are in LP which require isk to turn into faction items.
This is why I put faucet in quotes. Yes, it was a sink. No, that doesn't matter. There were and still are plenty of other faucets and liquid isk around. What matters when evaluating how an income source might impact prices seems to be a) how big the income is relative to other options b) how accessible it is compared to other options c) how much effort it takes compared to other options and to some degree. FW was a) high (in the case of button orbiting) or off the charts (in the case of mission farming) b) accessible (missions) to extremely accessible (button orbiting) c) very low effort (button orbiting) to "not much more effort than regular l4 missions" in the case of mission farming. Basically, it was a perfect storm. There's a reason why the start and end of the plex spike coincided with the introduction and subsequent nerf of FW. Mynnna for CSM 8 |
Sentamon
806
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Posted - 2013.04.10 14:31:00 -
[13] - Quote
"Ecomomists" can't help but meddle in the free market, it's their nature,and it always ends badly. ~ Professional Forum Alt -á~ |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
920
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Posted - 2013.04.10 14:46:00 -
[14] - Quote
i like how every change in plex prices is rationalized with CCP interference. it's like schroedinger's cat: CCP wants PLEX to be cheap and expensive at the same time.
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
807
|
Posted - 2013.04.10 21:02:00 -
[15] - Quote
Daniel Plain wrote:i like how every change in plex prices is rationalized with CCP interference. it's like schroedinger's cat: CCP wants PLEX to be cheap and expensive at the same time.
Obviously plex have nowhere to go but up so if they go down it's clearly CCP interference.
Mynnna for CSM 8 |
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
883
|
Posted - 2013.04.13 20:05:00 -
[16] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Adoris Nolen wrote:^^Yup^
IIRC; Plex is one of the major factors for the newly invogarated bans. CCP is seizing isk and game time from permabanned botting accounts. The seized assets in addition to the plex sales are being used to keep prices down. Reduced demand from the banned bots also helps with the price. This strategy has worked pretty good in reducing plex from around 650m in october to 510 in april. The reason plex have fallen since october is almost certainly that they removed or at least forced underground the "faucet" (and I put that in quotes because I mean it in a figurative sense of 'holy **** all the isk' not the usual 'adding new isk to the game' sense) that was Faction Warfare, combined with fairly relentless pressure in the form of sales every couple of weeks. They have the PLEX confiscated from banned accounts to use in the manner that you describe, but every time they've ever talked about it it always seems to be a sort of "last ditch" thing, and they prefer to use other means (sales and plex consuming offers) as their primary regulatory tool.
There was a PLEX injection by CCP of 'confiscated PLEX' last year. Dr E promised a DEV blog about it in the CSM summit notes in last Janruary and there it'll all be explained after Dr E jumps in his time machine & posts this ninja DEV Blog
So maybe he'll talk about it in fanfest or maybe he'll promise a DEV blog about it comming out Soon(tm) at fanfest & it'll get published next year Ripard Teg-á for CSM 8 slot 1, Mike Azariah slot 2 Disclaimer: CCP Bias is a fictional character. In case that some CCP Bias does exist,-áis he an "ex"-Goon? |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
824
|
Posted - 2013.04.13 20:36:00 -
[17] - Quote
I'd forgotten about that, although the minutes say "Dr.EyjoG also provided CSM with a report on PLEX intervention(s)". Assuming that intervention was a plex injection is fairly reasonable, but it is just an assumption.
It also doesn't change the fact that it along with other measures (more and more frequent sales, etc) would have been pointless had they not adjusted FW. Mynnna for CSM 8 |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
3994
|
Posted - 2013.04.14 08:19:00 -
[18] - Quote
There's no recent proof of CCP PLEX manipulation.
These actions require a very slow, steady and cunning approach to not leave an easily spotted track.
I have analyzed PLEX in this post, look at how smooth the price is.
The only potent market action happened with that clearly identified November inversion pin bar.
How do I know it's not been CCP? Because in all markets (including RL) inversion pin bars often immediately invert the market direction but in this case it only half succeeded. This happens when sellers are definitely there but not so powerful to dominate the market, a direct manipulation made by who knows the required volume to invert the trend, would have produced a more predictable inversion. This one, instead, created the so called "inversion with inside range market" pin bar and actually produced a double top in December, like there really was a slow and steady sellers victory, not a "huge nuke dump" or similar, that's typical of manipulations (and even more, state central banks currency control method).
I could go on and explain further, but writing in the middle of the ocean is not so comfortable (so, yes, guys thank Neptune for keeping me in check! ) Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Angelique Duchemin
Serenity Prime Kraken.
442
|
Posted - 2013.04.14 11:20:00 -
[19] - Quote
I can't even decide which direction is in CCPs favour.
If they cost less then more people will buy them in game but people will be less motivated to buy them out of game.
On the other hand if the price goes too high then fewer people will buy them in game but more will buy them from the store.
Maybe there's a reason that plex prices are so disturbingly stable. We miss you Saede. |
Demolishar
United Aggression
861
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Posted - 2013.04.14 12:45:00 -
[20] - Quote
Angelique Duchemin wrote:I can't even decide which direction is in CCPs favour.
If they cost less then more people will buy them in game but people will be less motivated to buy them out of game.
On the other hand if the price goes too high then fewer people will buy them in game but more will buy them from the store.
Maybe there's a reason that plex prices are so disturbingly stable.
Well stability means less people going "OMG DUMP BEFORE IT GOES LOW!!" or "OMG BUY PLEX BEFORE IT GOES HIGH AGAIN!" and to just be willing to buy PLEX from market as and when they need it, which then introduces further stability into the PLEX market as we don't have these massive positive-feedback swings. |
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0Lona 0ltor
Mind Games. Suddenly Spaceships.
37
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Posted - 2013.04.14 13:14:00 -
[21] - Quote
CCP will happily ban anyone who trys to crash PLEX, it has been said before. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1703
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Posted - 2013.04.15 07:37:00 -
[22] - Quote
First off, simple common sense would tell you that CCP putting up PLEX for sale on the markets would be shooting themselves in the foot. Not that they never did anything foot-shooty in other areas, but hopefully they learned to do that less often. Besides, offering discounts for bulk PLEX purchases does the trick quite nicely already anyway.
Second, why does it have to be some major alliance ? There are traders in the game that could easily afford to have HUNDREDS of PLEX stockpiled for SHORT term arbitrage, and them putting some batches up for sale whenever the price starts to rise would be something fairly natural, if a bit lazy. Then again, they get gobbled up eventually, so it's probably the rather smart kind of lazy, IMO. http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T T2 BPO poll: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=114789 Buying this: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=147098 |
0Lona 0ltor
Mind Games. Suddenly Spaceships.
37
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Posted - 2013.04.15 09:05:00 -
[23] - Quote
Akita T wrote:First off, simple common sense would tell you that CCP putting up PLEX for sale on the markets would be shooting themselves in the foot. Not that they never did anything foot-shooty in other areas, but hopefully they learned to do that less often. Besides, offering discounts for bulk PLEX purchases does the trick quite nicely already anyway.
Second, why does it have to be some major alliance ? There are traders in the game that could easily afford to have HUNDREDS of PLEX stockpiled for SHORT term arbitrage, and them putting some batches up for sale whenever the price starts to rise would be something fairly natural, if a bit lazy. Then again, they get gobbled up eventually, so it's probably the rather smart kind of lazy, IMO.
They have said they use ISK and PLEX removed from those they've banned and I also suspect they would invest RL money to stabalise the market if needed to keep subscriptions steady such as providing discounts on PLEX deals which is simply a cash injection detracted from RL $ sales into the EVE market.
I'd love for a massive war on PLEX to see if a part of the player base could break CCP and the PLEX market. You never know CCP might offer some sort of RL gift if you start winning? Guest package and free flights to Iceland anyone? Either that or they'll just ban you.
TL;DR CCP does manipulate the PLEX market via PLEX sales and RL PLEX price costs. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1703
|
Posted - 2013.04.15 14:28:00 -
[24] - Quote
0Lona 0ltor wrote:They have said they use ISK and PLEX removed from those they've banned and I also suspect they would invest RL money to stabalise the market if needed to keep subscriptions steady such as providing discounts on PLEX deals which is simply a cash injection detracted from RL $ sales into the EVE market. They've implied they COULD do those first things if absolutely needed, but so far the only thing they actually needed to do was hold all those discounted PLEX sales since back then.
For PLEX discounts, while they may look at a first glimpse as if CCP might lose the full discount because of them (and eventually, in the long run, they sort of might, but it's at least partially if not even fully counterbalanced by the possibility of early repayments of debts they still have anyway, so it doesn't matter that much, if at all), the short-and-medium-term loss is noticeably lower (since they generate sales which would not have happened otherwise), which might actually lead occasionally even to a net gain overall.
P.S. Ok, technically, they also (sort of) indirectly purchased some PLEX back for cash at times (NVIDIA cards "sales", humanitarian aid and other such stuff). http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T T2 BPO poll: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=114789 Buying this: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=147098 |
0Lona 0ltor
Mind Games. Suddenly Spaceships.
37
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Posted - 2013.04.15 17:31:00 -
[25] - Quote
Not really as they were plex that had been paid for and thus CCP loses nothing on PLEX for Aid or Cards. Things like that just drive up the price of Plex while PLEX sales drop it. Mass bans of bots will also drive down PLEX while allowing botting to slide will drive it up. |
Callduron
194
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Posted - 2013.04.16 18:13:00 -
[26] - Quote
Sentamon wrote:"Ecomomists" can't help but meddle in the free market, it's their nature,and it always ends badly.
And yet you and I only have computers because of First World protectionism.
I suppose it "ends badly" from the perspective of Malawian peanut farmers. |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
548
|
Posted - 2013.04.16 19:10:00 -
[27] - Quote
0Lona 0ltor wrote:Not really as they were plex that had been paid for and thus CCP loses nothing on PLEX for Aid or Cards. Things like that just drive up the price of Plex while PLEX sales drop it. Mass bans of bots will also drive down PLEX while allowing botting to slide will drive it up. Well actually if you consider the fact that those graphics cards were not top of the line only worth say $200-250, they cost what 20 PLEX which even at the discount price of $17.95 rather than the normal $20 is still about $350 per card. So really CCP made $100 of each card slod, and each EVE player paid 50% over market value for those cards. They were just able to buy them with in game isk thru PLEX that other players have paid real $ for.
My point is, if, when CCP was selling new graphics cards for PLEX someone was to buy the needed 20 PLEX with real money. Then Used those purchased PLEX to trade for the card. It would have cost them much more than just going to tiger direct and buying an even better graphics card. I am sure CCP got a nice bulk discount on those cards as well. So they defiantly made a profit off that deal.
Was this a scam on CCPs part? NO. It was a great deal for many players that do not have a lot of real money, but spend a lot of time playing EVE. Players that pay their sub every month with PLEX they bought in game. Players who used isk they earned playing the game to buy those PLEX and trade it for something that they would other wise have had to buy for real money. It was a great deal for both sides.
CCP not only took a big load of PLEX out of circulation, but did it in a way that saved them real money. For example even if we take PLEX at its non sale value of $19.95 USD. it is actually worth only one months game time which is around $15 or less for a long term subscription paid with real money. So they already make a few bucks per PLEX sold. Not only do they get that money now rather than when the game time is actually used, but they get more than a regular monthly subscription. A win win for CCP and for the players who buy PLEX to sell in game for isk.
Now they take some of those PLEX and offer graphics cards or Fanfest tickets for a specified number of PLEX. The graphics cards for example are worth about $200, in fact CCP probably got them even cheaper, but for this example we will stick with a $200 value. 20 PLEX at normal price is about $400. So CCP basically bought those PLEX back for half of what they sold them for. $19.95 each for 20 PLEX is $399. 20 PLEX for a $200 graphics card is only $10 per PLEX. CCP effectively sold those graphics cards for at least double what they paid for them. |
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