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Silitia Dais
AirHogs Zulu People
1
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Posted - 2013.04.30 08:20:00 -
[1] - Quote
Why are the prices dropping like fly?
I understand odyssey is coming but why would the prices now? |
Danni stark
11
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Posted - 2013.04.30 08:22:00 -
[2] - Quote
read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling. Yay, this account hasn't had it's signature banned. or it's account, if you're reading this. |
Silitia Dais
AirHogs Zulu People
1
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Posted - 2013.04.30 08:25:00 -
[3] - Quote
Danni stark wrote:read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling.
Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks. |
Danni stark
11
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Posted - 2013.04.30 08:29:00 -
[4] - Quote
Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling. Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks.
again, read the dev blogs. Yay, this account hasn't had it's signature banned. or it's account, if you're reading this. |
Silitia Dais
AirHogs Zulu People
1
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 08:33:00 -
[5] - Quote
Danni stark wrote:Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling. Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks. again, read the dev blogs.
Still read it, doesnt see a problem as these change dont take effect now. |
BlackHawk177
Vicis Inter Astrum
2
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Posted - 2013.04.30 08:40:00 -
[6] - Quote
You're correct they don't take effect now... but everyone is already reacting to the changes. Why wait 5 weeks when you can clearly see mineral balance is shifting and prices are gonna fall anyways. |
Danni stark
11
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Posted - 2013.04.30 09:31:00 -
[7] - Quote
Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling. Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks. again, read the dev blogs. Still read it, doesnt see a problem as these change dont take effect now.
doesn't matter if you don't see a problem, that's still the reason, as per your original question. Yay, this account hasn't had it's signature banned. or it's account, if you're reading this. |
Elena Thiesant
Sun Micro Systems
302
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Posted - 2013.04.30 09:50:00 -
[8] - Quote
Unloading stockpiles before the prices drop too much. If you have a stock pile of a few hundred million units of trit, why wait until the prices have dropped to unload them? |
Tauranon
Weeesearch
159
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Posted - 2013.04.30 10:09:00 -
[9] - Quote
Silitia Dais wrote:Why are the prices dropping like fly?
I understand odyssey is coming but why would the prices now?
I stopped building ships because it takes a lot of market micro to turn a profit when everyone that built their inventory after you has lower costs and underbids you. Typical self reinforcing market behavior leading to over correction. You can turn a profit under these circumstances, but I can't be bothered except small spike orders for really under supplied units.
I'll probably go back in when V.V. comes into the thread to tell us that there is a classic double bottom being traced out by the market.
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Skorpynekomimi
502
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Posted - 2013.04.30 10:14:00 -
[10] - Quote
Because they're normalising after a series of huge rises. **** |
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Krax As
Silent Tears in Space
22
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Posted - 2013.04.30 10:57:00 -
[11] - Quote
its all speculation on the hands of marketwarriors that the prices of those lowores (tri/ pye/mex) will adjust because all over sudden all kinds of hardcore miners will flock to low / null to mine those precious upgraded ores, which might , or might not happen.
I am not an expert by any means, but I still believe that the main supply of low end mins will keep be supplied by the means of HS mining.
also the Outpost upgrades are nice, but not even close to being substantial enough to rival HS production.
those precious outpost assembly lines and research slots in those precious outpost will be queued by large entity-industrialist alts / toons.
it is in fact a change to the industry side of eve that does only benefit those already securely in place in deep null space. anyone else still faces the same old dangers and nobody will give rats behind to improve that.
those industrialists and miners that try to exploit those changes and make a living will mostly crawl back to HS after a couple of ganks and tears... it might be that a few are able to adapt and make a decent living in low null afterwards. but dumbing down of scanning makes damn sure that even the most ******** wanna be ganker can now find and kill anim miners.
oh boy. me ranting again |
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn
Department 10
14
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Posted - 2013.04.30 14:35:00 -
[12] - Quote
Skorpynekomimi wrote:Because they're normalising after a series of huge rises.
If you didn't go to Fanfest this year and attend Dr Eyjo the CCP economist for EVE talk on the economy of New Eden over the past decade I suggest you look it up on the youtube page. In short Dr Eyjo explained and proved to us all that prices have stayed fairly steady across the board and that the current prices, including mineral prices, are not high or inflated at all.
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Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn
Department 10
14
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Posted - 2013.04.30 14:43:00 -
[13] - Quote
Krax As wrote:its all speculation on the hands of marketwarriors that the prices of those lowores (tri/ pye/mex) will adjust because all over sudden all kinds of hardcore miners will flock to low / null to mine those precious upgraded ores, which might , or might not happen.
I am not an expert by any means, but I still believe that the main supply of low end mins will keep be supplied by the means of HS mining.
also the Outpost upgrades are nice, but not even close to being substantial enough to rival HS production.
those precious outpost assembly lines and research slots in those precious outpost will be queued by large entity-industrialist alts / toons.
it is in fact a change to the industry side of eve that does only benefit those already securely in place in deep null space. anyone else still faces the same old dangers and nobody will give rats behind to improve that.
those industrialists and miners that try to exploit those changes and make a living will mostly crawl back to HS after a couple of ganks and tears... it might be that a few are able to adapt and make a decent living in low null afterwards. but dumbing down of scanning makes damn sure that even the most ******** wanna be ganker can now find and kill anim miners.
oh boy. me ranting again
Nul-sec will now get more tritanium & pyerite in their rocks but I will bet you will be hard pressed to find many nul-sec miners mining it. Who is going to mine trit there with the added risk etc when they could be making more ISK from mining for Nocxium, Zydrine, Megacyte, & Morphite. It's fairly obvious when you think about it.
I suspect there will be a small drop in the price of high sec obtainable minerals in the run up but a recovery afterwards. Therefore best policy for miners would be to continue mining but hoard as much of your minerals as you can. And probably switch to ice mining to a degree before the changes. |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
582
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 14:48:00 -
[14] - Quote
Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling. Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks. again, read the dev blogs. Still read it, doesnt see a problem as these change dont take effect now.
Market speculation has driven prices much more than the actual game changes for the last several expansions. Do you really expect this one to be any different. |
Elena Thiesant
Sun Micro Systems
302
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 14:49:00 -
[15] - Quote
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn wrote:Nul-sec will now get more tritanium & pyerite in their rocks but I will bet you will be hard pressed to find many nul-sec miners mining it. Who is going to mine trit there with the added risk etc when they could be making more ISK from mining for Nocxium, Zydrine, Megacyte, & Morphite. It's fairly obvious when you think about it.
Two things.
- The trit, pyr and mex have been added to the same asteroids that provide Nocxium, Zydrine and Megacyte. It's not as if the miners can mine Arkonor and just get the Zydrine and Megacyte without the trit that's been added. - If mining hidden belts, everything needs to be mined out before the belt respawns
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Haulie Berry
564
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Posted - 2013.04.30 14:55:00 -
[16] - Quote
Silitia Dais wrote:Danni stark wrote:read the dev blogs. you'll thank yourself.
although the tl;dr is supply is increasing, hence prices falling. Supply isn't moving for a whole 5 weeks.
Oh, well I guess we should all just wait 5 weeks to sell off, then, right?
It's assumed that the price is going to drop, so people are unloading their stockpiles, which means the supply on the market is increasing now. |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
583
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 17:06:00 -
[17] - Quote
Ekaterina 'Ghetto' Thurn wrote:
Nul-sec will now get more tritanium & pyerite in their rocks but I will bet you will be hard pressed to find many nul-sec miners mining it. Who is going to mine trit there with the added risk etc when they could be making more ISK from mining for Nocxium, Zydrine, Megacyte, & Morphite. It's fairly obvious when you think about it.
I suspect there will be a small drop in the price of high sec obtainable minerals in the run up but a recovery afterwards. Therefore best policy for miners would be to continue mining but hoard as much of your minerals as you can. And probably switch to ice mining to a degree before the changes.
LOL, seriously?? Nocxium, Zydrine, Megacyte, & Morphite are not ores that can be mined, but minerals refined from those ores. The changes have added low end minerals to those high end ores. For example Megacyte can only be refined from Arknor and Spodumain. both of those ores have had significant amounts of low end minerals (tritanium) added to them. All the null sec ores have had their low end minerals increased. Look at the price of Spodumain. It has more than doubled in price since the Blog came out. Why? because after the change it will have 2-3 times the mineral value it has now. Players are not buying it to use right now. they are buying it to stockpile and refine after the changes go live.
This is not a matter of null sec miners, mining some new ore type, Or even switching from high end ores to low end ores. It is them continuing to mine the high end A,B,C,s and getting low end minerals as a bonus when they refine. Also the previous null sec ores that were worthless but had to be mined to flip the sites, such as Spodumain and Gneiss now have large amounts of low end ores in them. Basically if the exact same ores are mined, in the exact same amounts, there will be significant increase in the supply of low end minerals, as those high end ores that used to contain only trace amounts of low ends, now contain a decent amount of them.
Spodumain rather than supplying a small amount of megacyte and trace amounts of tritanium, will now supply a large amount of tritanium and small amount of megacyte.
the low end minerals that are in highest demand, or used in highest volume depending how you look at it, are tritanium, Pyrite, and Mexallon, in that order. Significant amounts of these have been added to the high end ores normally mined for the higher end minerals. So when this change goes live, null sec miners will continue to get those high end minerals from the high end ores, but will get a significant portion of low end minerals in addition to what they were getting before. not instead of, but in addition.
This may not drastically affect the mineral supply, although I expect we will see a small drop in low end minerals exported from high sec through mineral compression. The main impact this will have is increase the income of null sec miners in a way the high sec miners will never again be able to match the income of a null sec miner. How? Well the recent situation where high sec miners could make as much if not more income than null sec miners was due to two factors. High sec low end minerals went up in price, while null sec high end minerals went down. the changes will result in any increase in low end mineral prices will also increase the value of high end ores as they will now contain both low end and high end minerals. They did contain low end minerals before, but only in trace amounts, now those amounts will generate a significant supply.
After this change we will see several things.
Null sec mining will again become much more profitable than high sec mining. This will not force high sec miners into low or null sec, but will give them an incentive to move if they are already considering it.
We will see and increase in supply of low end minerals in null sec. Even without an increase in null sec miners, the same amount of ore will now produce a good portion of low end minerals previously obtained by jumping them in from high sec. Why bring in minerals if you can bring in finished products for the same price. But now why haul in finished products if you have the minerals to build them locally. This will significantly buff null sec industry, but will still not be near enough to compete with high sec industry, But combined with the increased availability of manufacturing slots, will make it much easier to get by in null sec as an industrial player.
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Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
1770
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Posted - 2013.04.30 17:38:00 -
[18] - Quote
Elena Thiesant wrote:Unloading stockpiles before the prices drop too much. If you have a stock pile of a few hundred million units of trit, why wait until the prices have dropped to unload them? ^^ This.
Though a few hundred million is an underestimate of the stocks being sold. |
Ginger Barbarella
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
1283
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Posted - 2013.04.30 17:40:00 -
[19] - Quote
I'm honestly curious to see whether the bufff to null ores will actually satiate the alleged demand of nullies crying about having to import minerals from high, or whether it'll actually have virtually zero impact. I suspect the latter... Even the nullies take advatage of the SAFETY of high sec when they can, and I find it dubious that the buff to the ores will have any realistic impact on them at all. It's still easier to buy the crap than expand operations to include non-pvp'ers to mine in their blue space.
I'm more than willing to admit it when I'm wrong, but I'll personally be watching this closely this summer to see if the nullie whining actually goes away (buff = solution to their problem) or just shifts to something else (typical nullies whining on Forums with no real problems). "Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac |
Zedutchman
Bluewater Industries Gold Star Alliance
0
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Posted - 2013.04.30 17:40:00 -
[20] - Quote
I'm unconvinced about Ice pricing rising...
Considering they are increasing collection speed to 2x. |
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Danni stark
27
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Posted - 2013.04.30 17:59:00 -
[21] - Quote
Zedutchman wrote:I'm unconvinced about Ice pricing rising...
Considering they are increasing collection speed to 2x.
Although the prices will increase because people think they will increase. Which is why player driven markers are fundamentally flawed to speculation. You only have to convice people a market swing will happen and it become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right? Yay, this account hasn't had it's signature banned. or it's account, if you're reading this. |
Zedutchman
Bluewater Industries Gold Star Alliance
0
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 18:15:00 -
[22] - Quote
Danni stark wrote:
i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right?
It's A reason, but when gathering speed is going to drastically increased I think it will offset. After all Time is the only real resource in eve.
I'd be interested to find out what percentage of Ice comes from High sec now. I can't imagine EVERY block of ice comes from Empire.
A 20% Supply deficit and a 100% production increase should more than offset. If it wasn't for the Ice-botters and AFKers I'd bet on a price decrease.
At least after the speculation stabilizes. |
Haulie Berry
565
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 18:16:00 -
[23] - Quote
Zedutchman wrote:Danni stark wrote:
i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right?
It's A reason, but when gathering speed is going to drastically increased I think it will offset. After all Time is the only real resource in eve. I'd be interested to find out what percentage of Ice comes from High sec now. I can't imagine EVERY block of ice comes from Empire. A 20% Supply deficit and a 100% production increase should more than offset. If it wasn't for the Ice-botters and AFKers I'd bet on a price decrease. At least after the speculation stabilizes.
Per CCP Fozzie: Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.
While highsec uses less than 10% of the isotopes in EVE. |
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
608
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 18:25:00 -
[24] - Quote
yes
Trit takes a massive hit of 15-25% mex 5-10 pyerite 10-20% cos it was going up before devblog
the end |
Danni stark
30
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Posted - 2013.04.30 18:48:00 -
[25] - Quote
Zedutchman wrote:Danni stark wrote:
i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right?
It's A reason, but when gathering speed is going to drastically increased I think it will offset. After all Time is the only real resource in eve. I'd be interested to find out what percentage of Ice comes from High sec now. I can't imagine EVERY block of ice comes from Empire. A 20% Supply deficit and a 100% production increase should more than offset. If it wasn't for the Ice-botters and AFKers I'd bet on a price decrease. At least after the speculation stabilizes.
the rate of obtaining ice is irrelevant. if there is no ice to mine, it's irrelevant how fast ice lasers cycle. Yay, this account hasn't had it's signature banned. or it's account, if you're reading this. |
RubyPorto
SniggWaffe YOUR VOTES DON'T COUNT
3286
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Posted - 2013.04.30 18:51:00 -
[26] - Quote
Zedutchman wrote:Danni stark wrote:
i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right?
It's A reason, but when gathering speed is going to drastically increased I think it will offset. After all Time is the only real resource in eve. I'd be interested to find out what percentage of Ice comes from High sec now. I can't imagine EVERY block of ice comes from Empire. A 20% Supply deficit and a 100% production increase should more than offset. If it wasn't for the Ice-botters and AFKers I'd bet on a price decrease. At least after the speculation stabilizes.
The quantity supplied from HS will be fixed at 80% of current EVE wide consumption. The production increase just means that you'll spend less barge-hrs supplying that quantity.
And CCP Fozzie posted in a GD thread that HS currently supplies ~98% of Ice and consumes ~15%. This is EVE - Everybody Versus Everybody.
"the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built and we want to keep that (infact, this is much more representative of the consensus opinion within CCP)." -CCP Solomon |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
585
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 20:04:00 -
[27] - Quote
Danni stark wrote:Zedutchman wrote:I'm unconvinced about Ice pricing rising...
Considering they are increasing collection speed to 2x.
Although the prices will increase because people think they will increase. Which is why player driven markers are fundamentally flawed to speculation. You only have to convice people a market swing will happen and it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right? Assuming 20% or the current ice is not mined in null already.I believe the current ICE supply is closer to 70/30 than 80/20. If so the supply will be fine.
Just because null sec industry is difficult and not popular, does not mean it is not done.
I lived in null for two years and did plenty of mining while I was there. Both ICE and ORE. There is a decent supply of null sec ice in Jita, and that is only the surplus of what is mined in null sec now. Considering the demand for ice products in null. For POS fuel, Jump Bridge Fuel, capital ships jump drives, and stront for towers and siege modules. Not to mention the high bulk volume of ice products, I would think that the amount of ICE currently mined in Null sec is well above the 20% mark.
When I was in null the local ICE belt we had access to always had at least 1 active fleet in it. Look at the number of null sec systems that have a high mining index. You have to actually mine in null to get that index up. And it takes more than just a little mining. We had regular mining ops of 15-20 players mining for 2-3 hours just to keep our index at 4. And there are systems with the mining index at 5. Not to mention the fact that all high end minerals available in high sec had to come from null sec miners.
The simple fact that there has recently been enough surplus of high end minerals to allow low end ores to over take the highend null sec ores in value. The amount of mining that happens in null sec may be small compared to high sec, but it does happen. And on a much larger scale than many players believe.
Personally I believe that more than 20% of the current ICE available is mined in null sec now, so the fact that the supply in high sec will only meet 80% of the demand will not be a problem. Considering the demand for ICE in high sec is far less than 80% of the overall demand. In fact I believe it is probably the other way around, I think 80% of the ICE products used in game are used in null sec.The only need for ice products in high sec is for POS fuel. Most of those POSes are caldari. Yet we never really saw a higher demand for nitrogen isotopes than the others. Why? Because the other ICE types are in higher demand in null sec, balancing out the high demand from Caldari Towers in high sec. Minmatar towers are the preferred deathstar towers, While Amarr and Galente towers are used more for moon mining and reactions due to the silo bonuses.
Mind you with an unlimited supply high sec ice miners would just mine more white glaze if it was in higher demand. Keeping things balanced. But that will not be possible when this change happens. only 25% of the ICE available in high sec will be white glaze. So if the consumption of white glaze is more than 25% of the supply, which I think it will be, there will be a shortage of nitrogen isotopes. Luckily Caldari ships are the least popular capitals. So the demand for nitrogen isotopes in null sec is low. We will just have to wait and see which way it goes. But I expect the current price fluctuations driven by speculation will have very little impact once the market has time to balance out.
The biggest potential bottle neck I see for high sec is for Caldari ICE, as I assume from the developer blog that the ICE supply will be balanced for each race, only 25% of the supply will be of any one type of ICE. So there should be a surplus of all the other ICE, but a shortage for caldari (White Glaze) ICE. If only 25% of the ICE in high sec is White Glaze, but 80% of the POSes need nitrogen isotopes, then it makes sense there will be a shortage there. I see White Glaze being worth twice as much as the other high sec ICE, when the market levels out. |
Danni stark
37
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Posted - 2013.04.30 20:07:00 -
[28] - Quote
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:Danni stark wrote:Zedutchman wrote:I'm unconvinced about Ice pricing rising...
Considering they are increasing collection speed to 2x.
Although the prices will increase because people think they will increase. Which is why player driven markers are fundamentally flawed to speculation. You only have to convice people a market swing will happen and it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. i mean, a 20% supply deficit between high sec ice mining and total demand is absolutely no reason for an increase in price, right? Assuming 20% or the current ice is not mined in null already.I believe the current ICE supply is closer to 70/30 than 80/20. If so the supply will be fine. [stuff] Personally I believe that more than 20% of the current ICE available is mined in null sec now,
its not, you're wrong.
ccp fozzy confirmed over 95% of ice is mined in high sec, or isotopes, which is essentially the same thing. Yay, this account hasn't had it's signature banned. or it's account, if you're reading this. |
Huttan Funaila
Terminal Radioactivity
175
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 20:39:00 -
[29] - Quote
One of the blog posts that RubyPorto is referring to is: Quote:At our current numbers, the maximum supply of ice from highsec (assuming that each belt is mined out completely five times a day) would provide approximately 80% of the game's ice needs, ensuring that at least some of the ice mining must be undertaken in lower security space. For context, this means that highsec will still be a large exporter of ice products, being able to generate eight times the volume of isotopes used by highsec control towers. http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-shakeup-blog#ICE This one also lists the changes to the unwanted ore that must be mined in order to mine out the grav sites generated with infrastructure hub upgrades.
Also: http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/resource-companion-blog
Finally, Mynnna (now on CSM) has a post with some tables showing the approximate amount of minerals consumed in New Eden as well as showing the i-hub mining sites (they come in the 5 sizes shown): http://themittani.com/features/economic-implications-odyssey
For an explanation of how the infrastructure hub upgrades work for mining, and what they do, I refer you to this PDF: http://go-dl.eve-files.com/media/1205/Bloodtear_Industy_Index_Report_v3.pdf Version 4 will be different when the new asteroid compositions go live.
Quote:If you have a stock pile of a few hundred million units of trit When our corp left null a couple months ago, I sold off my stockpile of 45 million units of trit. I'm "little people" and by the end of our tenancy, the only miner left in my corp. I did some ice mining as well, but mostly just to get supplies for cyno and jump fuel. And as an aside, I was never able to get our system to turn on even the first level of industry upgrades for our system - so all of our minerals came from mining ordinary asteroids in belts and rat convoys. |
mama guru
Thundercats The Initiative.
102
|
Posted - 2013.04.30 21:16:00 -
[30] - Quote
This is all good though, the prices have exploded since the droneland nerfs. CCP removed a huge source of minerals without adding something to compensate and as a result prices exploded across the board.
This is merely readjusting the values as Nullsec mining will be alot more profitable. Which it should be given the risks. ______
EVE online is the fishermans friend of MMO's. If it's too hard you are too weak. |
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