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Vordek Rei
House of Praetor R O G U E
4
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Posted - 2013.05.30 21:44:00 -
[1] - Quote
With the launch of Odyssey CCP will change the R64 moon distribution as well as increase the total amount of R64 moons by 227.
Quote:As these changes will bring the total usage of each R64 mineral into much closer balance, we will be seeding R64s into 227 existing moons in lowsec and 0.0, to bring the number of minable moons for each R64 into closer alignment.
Since the news of changes to the T2 material production chain, everyone has been out to buy the 4 - R64 materials, Pro, Dys, Deo, Thu. Which makes very little sense since the market is going to see an huge influx of said materials. If anything the prices on R64 should go down.
In previous expansions such investments would be meaningful, simply because of how demand used to be, post expansion launch.
But this time around it looks like a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money because they did not do their homework.
If you calculate the value of The New Racial Composites and compare the value of these versus the value loss on changes to the Microprocessors, Capacitor units and Reactor units it pretty much evens out. So demand on the R64 should not increase.
Quote:To reach these goals we are implementing a change to several aspects of the tech two production chain. We are adding two new intermediate materials (with associated reactions and alchemy reactions), four new composites, and adjusting the composition of the Microprocessors, Capacitor Units, and Reactors.
Link to DevBlog with numbers
New Intermediate Materials ThuliHaf : 100 Thulium + 100 Hafnium = 200 ThuliHaf ProMerc : 100 Promethium + 100 Mercury = 200 ProMerc
New Composites Gallentium : 100 ThulHaf + 100 Crystallite Alloy = 300 Gallentium Matarium : 100 Neo Mercurite + 100 Fernite Alloy = 300 Matarium Amarrium : 100 ProMerc + 100 Rolled Tungsten Alloy = 300 Amarrium Caldarium : 100 Ferrofluid + 100 Titanium Chromide = 300 Caldarium Changed blueprints
All Non Capital Microprocessors: 15(+3) Racial Carbides, 5(+4) Phenolic Composites, 2(-3) Nanotransitors, 2(+2) New Racial Composites
All Non Capital Capacitor Units: 24 Racial Carbides, 10(-5) Fullerides, 1 Nanotransistor, 2(+2) New Racial Composites
All Non Capital Reactor Units: 8 Racial Carbides, 0(-1) Ferrogel, 2(+1) Fermionic Condensates
All Capital Microprocessors: 1500(+300) Racial Carbides, 50(+40) Phenolic Composites, 20(-30) Nanotransitors, 20(+20) New Racial Composites
All Capital Capacitor Units: 2000 Racial Carbides, 1000 Fullerides, 10 Nanotransistors, 20(+20) New Racial Composites
All Capital Reactor Units: 800 Racial Carbides, 0(-10) Ferrogel, 20(+10) Fermionic Condensates _____________________________________________________ Consequences
In short - I don't think the current R64 material reflect the future in any way, in fact expect the value to drop hard and fast (4-5 Weeks)
With the increased R64 material influx on the market, the demand for e.g. Merc will explode since everyone with new R64 on their hands will want to manufacture the new Racial Composites.
If you disagree with my assertion please post your numbers / math to prove your point, just saying that you don't believe it to be so will not be taken serious. Trying to do Internet Spaceship Market Science here
Hope you enjoyed this insight, and happy last moment investments.
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EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp Goonswarm Federation
843
|
Posted - 2013.05.30 23:03:00 -
[2] - Quote
it will take many months before all the new r64s are found
and it's bottlenecked with them |
Nitrogen Isotopes
Deep Core Mining Inc. Caldari State
24
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Posted - 2013.05.30 23:32:00 -
[3] - Quote
Vordek Rei wrote:With the increased R64 material influx on the market, the demand for e.g. Merc will explode since everyone with new R64 on their hands will want to manufacture the new Racial Composites.
You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites. You might want to post some math / numbers so you can be taken seriously. |
Vordek Rei
House of Praetor R O G U E
4
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Posted - 2013.05.31 00:08:00 -
[4] - Quote
Quote:You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites Edit: Look up or google PED (Price elasticity of demand) if you want the math.
Call me dumb - It's a little hard for me to understand your question?
But here is what I think, in case you need clarification, on exactly what it is, I think.
Increase in R64 supply will also increase the demand for intermediate materials such as Merc.
The math is complex and is, in itself, key to good projections and investments.
I did not post this so that everyone can lick the icing of my profit cake, without breaking a little sweat over the math. |
Vordek Rei
House of Praetor R O G U E
4
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Posted - 2013.05.31 00:20:00 -
[5] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:it will take many months before all the new r64s are found
and it's bottlenecked with them
I remember how much time it took last time, about 2 weeks at max. It might take many months before you know where they are, but pretty sure people are going to go probe crazy. Hit gold while the price is high, and bomb the R64 market to the stone age in a rush for quick profit. |
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp Goonswarm Federation
843
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 00:36:00 -
[6] - Quote
Vordek Rei wrote:Quote:You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites Edit: Look up or google PED (Price elasticity of demand) if you want the math. Call me dumb - It's a little hard for me to understand your question? google other irrelevant things that have nothing to do with the price of a bottlenecked material |
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp Goonswarm Federation
843
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Posted - 2013.05.31 00:37:00 -
[7] - Quote
Vordek Rei wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:it will take many months before all the new r64s are found
and it's bottlenecked with them I remember how much time it took last time, about 2 weeks at max. It might take many months before you know where they are, but pretty sure people are going to go probe crazy. Hit gold while the price is high, and bomb the R64 market to the stone age in a rush for quick profit. it has never happened before so i would go to the doctor and get that ol' memory checked gramps |
Nitrogen Isotopes
Deep Core Mining Inc. Caldari State
25
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Posted - 2013.05.31 00:39:00 -
[8] - Quote
Vordek Rei wrote:It's a little hard for me to understand your question?
I wasn't asking a question.
I think it's amusing that you want others to post their numbers but you're unwilling to do so yourself.
I'm also fascinated by the method people use to come to starkly different conclusions than my own after playing around with a bit of market data.
However, if you're just fishing then it is considerably less interesting. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1231
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 00:53:00 -
[9] - Quote
Vordek Rei wrote: If you disagree with my assertion please post your numbers / math to prove your point, just saying that you don't believe it to be so will not be taken serious. Trying to do Internet Spaceship Market Science here Blink
Challenge accepted.
Vordek Rei wrote:If you calculate the value of The New Racial Composites and compare the value of these versus the value loss on changes to the Microprocessors, Capacitor units and Reactor units it pretty much evens out. So demand on the R64 should not increase.
The first flaw here is that you're assuming that the price of the R64s will stay the same.
The second flaw is that you're also comparing "isk value" to "units consumed". So let's focus on the isk cost first. We get -3 Nanotransistors (-13.5k), but +3 carbides (+110ish), four Phenolic Composites (+4x1250) and two racial composites, which I estimate would be selling for about 10k with current R64 prices (except for the Minmatar one, which would be closer to 15k). So, that's a gain of +25k, which more than balances the -13.5k from the Nanos. Or, we can assume that you're right, and everything crashes. In that scenario, Nanos cost about 3500-3700, Carbides cost 120 minimum (rising fuel prices, you see), Phenolics cost about 1000/unit, and (by using the pre-speculation prices of 2k for Thulium, 5k for Prom, 10k for Dyspro and 50k for Neo) the racial composites cost anywhere from 7 to 13k each depending on race. The actual price delta varies by race, of course, but is a net increase in all cases.
The picture is similarly unfavorable for capacitor units (where two racial composites cost far more than the five Fullerides being replaced regardless of scenario) and Reactor Units (one unit of Fermionic Condensates will always cost a lot more than one unit of Ferrogel).
The third flaw comes into play once we look at what is actually being replaced. The demand is does not "pretty much even out" as you claim, it's actually quite a significant increase.
Microprocessors are losing three units of nanotransistors, which amounts to 0.1 units of Neodymium per Microprocessor. However, they're gaining two units of their respective racial composite, which translates into a third of a unit of R64 per Microprocessor. Net gain here is .233(...) units of R64 per Microprocessor, albeit spread a bit unevenly. Microprocessors also pick up more Phenolic Composites and the racial Carbide, but those don't use R64s, so we'll ignore them.
Capacitor Units are losing 5 units of Fullerides, and gaining two units of racial composites. Fullerides don't use R64s at all, they derived their value from Technetium, which is why they have been and will continue to crash very badly. So, these are just a straight increase in consumption of R64s, a third of a unit apiece.
And finally, Reactor Units. We're losing a unit of Ferrogel, which translates to .125 units of Dysprosium and .25 units of Promethium per unit of Ferrogel, but gaining a unit of Fermionic Condensates, which is +.25 units of every R64. So, net gain for everything but Promethium, which is net zero.
Now for the coup de grace.
I estimate (by essentially looking at average sales of T2 in Jita over the course of a month) that around 85 million units of Microprocessors are consumed per month. Thus, we lose 8.5 million units of Neodymium consumption, but gain about 28.33 million units of R64 consumption, split (rather unevenly, I might add) across the four of them. I'll single out Neodymium specifically and note that it's actually a small net loss here; the increase from the Matar racial composites is outweighed by the decrease from the loss of the Nanotransistors, by about two million units.
Capacitor Units see around 25.5 million units consumed a month. This is just a straight increase, about 8.3 million units of R64s worth.
And finally, reactor units. They're a low usage item, only perhaps 2.3 million per month. We lose .375 units in each, but gain a full unit with the switch to Fermionics, for a net gain of .625 per month. In the end, it comes to an additional ~1.5m units per month.
OH YEAH, and there's also 352k capital micros (net gain of +2.33 R64s each), 352k Cap units (net gain of +3.33 R64s each) and +259k Reactor Units (net gain of +6.25 R64s each), so another 3.6 million units there.
So, our net gain in R64 consumption is about 33.241 million units per month. A moon only produces 72000 units per month, on the other hand, which comes out to a total of 16.344 million units. Given that my estimate of increased consumption is a little over twice as large as the amount of moon goo the new moons will add, I think it's safe to say that you're wrong. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Felicity Love
STARKRAFT Joint Venture Conglomerate
645
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Posted - 2013.05.31 01:08:00 -
[10] - Quote
... sits on the boatdock sipping Sangria and looks out at the crystalline skies...
Proud Beta Tester for "Bumping Uglies for Dummies" |
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Derath Ellecon
Washburne Holdings Situation: Normal
1399
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Posted - 2013.05.31 01:09:00 -
[11] - Quote
mynna wrote:so many words
Im reminded once again why I spend my time in New Eden just flying around shooting stuff... |
Vordek Rei
House of Praetor R O G U E
4
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Posted - 2013.05.31 02:26:00 -
[12] - Quote
mynnna wrote: The first flaw here is that you're assuming that the price of the R64s will stay the same.
Quote: In short - I don't think the current R64 material reflect the future in any way, in fact expect the value to drop hard and fast (4-5 Weeks)
Clearly you did not read what I wrote.
I wish you the best of luck on the market. I'm going to sign out of this debate. But thanks for your write up. I will post my defeat in this very post in 2-3 weeks time, then we will take it from there. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1235
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 02:47:00 -
[13] - Quote
Nah, read what you wrote, just phrased things poorly. I really should have said "The first flaw is you're assuming they won't go up further." Start from a position of fact, basically, just like you did. I just defended my claim. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Rama Sirius
Damorg Freedom Corp
1
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Posted - 2013.05.31 14:15:00 -
[14] - Quote
This time last year neodymium was at 18k a unit |
Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
911
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Posted - 2013.05.31 14:45:00 -
[15] - Quote
Apes pawing at the obelisk.
Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
1003
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 15:12:00 -
[16] - Quote
What a thoroughly unconvincing argument.
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Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
1476
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Posted - 2013.05.31 15:21:00 -
[17] - Quote
Aryth wrote:Apes pawing at the obelisk.
Clearly they should be pawing at the Fenrir or Providence. Rather than the slow and Ugly Obelisk.
Though I'm sure they'll just bang on it with thigh bones. Steve Ronuken for CSM 9!-á I'm starting early :) Handy tools and an SDE conversion Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
211
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Posted - 2013.05.31 16:18:00 -
[18] - Quote
Steve Ronuken wrote:Aryth wrote:Apes pawing at the obelisk.
Clearly they should be pawing at the Fenrir or Providence. Rather than the slow and Ugly Obelisk. Though I'm sure they'll just bang on it with thigh bones.
Leave the providence alone!
The Fenrir or Charon are much better.
If you bang on a Charon with thigh bones, you can get quite a good tune out of it |
Skydell
Bad Girl Posse Somethin Awfull Forums
533
|
Posted - 2013.06.01 04:48:00 -
[19] - Quote
Nitrogen Isotopes wrote:Vordek Rei wrote:With the increased R64 material influx on the market, the demand for e.g. Merc will explode since everyone with new R64 on their hands will want to manufacture the new Racial Composites.
You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites. You might want to post some math / numbers concerning current and projected use so you can be taken seriously.
I don't think demand for anything is in line with the games power to produce. It was more about manipulation of the markets.
Considering how quick the Techetium Cartel folded, I don't see there being enough solidarity to manipulate the new T2 markets. |
flakeys
Interstellar Corporation of Science and Technology Interstellar Confederation
1132
|
Posted - 2013.06.01 19:14:00 -
[20] - Quote
Vordek Rei wrote:mynnna wrote: The first flaw here is that you're assuming that the price of the R64s will stay the same.
Quote: In short - I don't think the current R64 material reflect the future in any way, in fact expect the value to drop hard and fast (4-5 Weeks)
Clearly you did not read what I wrote. I wish you the best of luck on the market. I'm going to sign out of this debate. But thanks for your write up. I will post my defeat in this very post in 2-3 weeks time, then we will take it from there.
You want someone to discuss this indepth ....then cores comes along and does just that and then you go ''meh i don't want to talk indepth about this'' ...........
We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.
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Samroski
Games Inc. The Night Crew Alliance
249
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Posted - 2013.06.01 20:21:00 -
[21] - Quote
Felicity Love wrote:... sits on the boatdock sipping Sangria and looks out at the crystalline skies... Not sure why, but this reminds me of Sand and Foam by Donovan.
On topic: ummmm my ignorance about the current discussion is astounding.
Any colour you like. |
Rama Sirius
Damorg Freedom Corp
1
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Posted - 2013.06.14 08:33:00 -
[22] - Quote
all r64's are dropping, what a surprise |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1271
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 12:20:00 -
[23] - Quote
Rama Sirius wrote:all r64's are dropping, what a surprise It's not. The path of every speculative item ever is a pre-patch swell, then a crash as people cash out on patch day because they want money now/they panic when it doesn't instantly spike/whatever, before a renewed rise (and then another crash as people cash out at new highs) and so on.
It doesn't help that there are two coalitions currently at war that each hold a lot of R64s and are hungry for money, too. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1202
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 15:22:00 -
[24] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Rama Sirius wrote:all r64's are dropping, what a surprise It's not. The path of every speculative item ever is a pre-patch swell, then a crash as people cash out on patch day because they want money now/they panic when it doesn't instantly spike/whatever, before a renewed rise (and then another crash as people cash out at new highs) and so on. It doesn't help that there are two coalitions currently at war that each hold a lot of R64s and are hungry for money, too. this. if you are not convinced, check out fuel blocks or battleships.
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
459
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 00:56:00 -
[25] - Quote
The simple solution would be to find a single alliance that could control all of the r64 moons. A cartel could work as well. I wonder where we could find such an organization. See Bio for isk doubling rules. -áIf you didn't read bio, chances are you helped fund those who did. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1275
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 01:02:00 -
[26] - Quote
Erotica 1 wrote: The simple solution would be to find a single alliance that could control all of the r64 moons. A cartel could work as well. I wonder where we could find such an organization.
Eve is littered with the defunct shells of alliances and corporations that thought they could control it all. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Jori McKie
Friends Of Harassment
75
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 15:27:00 -
[27] - Quote
mynnna wrote: I estimate (by essentially looking at average sales of T2 in Jita over the course of a month) that around 85 million units of Microprocessors are consumed per month. Thus, we lose 8.5 million units of Neodymium consumption, but gain about 28.33 million units of R64 consumption, split (rather unevenly, I might add) across the four of them. I'll single out Neodymium specifically and note that it's actually a small net loss here; the increase from the Matar racial composites is outweighed by the decrease from the loss of the Nanotransistors, by about two million units.
Capacitor Units see around 25.5 million units consumed a month. This is just a straight increase, about 8.3 million units of R64s worth.
And finally, reactor units. They're a low usage item, only perhaps 2.3 million per month. We lose .375 units in each, but gain a full unit with the switch to Fermionics, for a net gain of .625 per month. In the end, it comes to an additional ~1.5m units per month.
OH YEAH, and there's also 352k capital micros (net gain of +2.33 R64s each), 352k Cap units (net gain of +3.33 R64s each) and +259k Reactor Units (net gain of +6.25 R64s each), so another 3.6 million units there.
So, our net gain in R64 consumption is about 33.241 million units per month. A moon only produces 72000 units per month, on the other hand, which comes out to a total of 16.344 million units. Given that my estimate of increased consumption is a little over twice as large as the amount of moon goo the new moons will add, I think it's safe to say that you're wrong.
Jita numbers are obvious but as far as i know those numbers are buys and sales, so you have to estimate how much percentage is actually used and how much is "just" traded.
Pre Tech, R64 stuff wasn't used evenly, after Odyssey i get that it is still not evenly but more or less. That raises the question, how much R64 stuff overall is mined and in comparison how much is used including the "net gain in R64 consumption is about 33.241 million units per month".
What i'm saying is you can't compare the net gain only to the 227 new R64 moons, you have to compare the overall mined stuff of all R64 moons to an estimated consumption (Jita numbers) + net gain via new reaction settings.
What you need is the actual number of all R64 moons x 72000/month and compare that to any estimation of consumption. That will get you a ballpark number, if you want it more specific you have to break it down to the specific R64 moon and its product vs the consumption. And here we are, i would love to see a break down of the existing R64 moons vs the estimated consumption of their product.
@mynnna or anyone with some actual numbers, don't need exact numbers just ballparks would be very nice. |
Jacabon Mere
Capital Storm. WHY so Seri0Us
47
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Posted - 2013.06.15 23:23:00 -
[28] - Quote
From all the math done, there is clearly an overwhelming undersupply of r64's.
And someone just put an accidental buy order for photonic metamaterials up at 133500/unit and netted me a cool 6.3 bil in extra cash. Capital Storm is recruiting Aussies for Nullsec pvp and money making. Join "Capital Storm Pub" channel ingame. www.capitalstorm.net |
Saeka Tyr
Sanctuary of Shadows Renegade Alliance
1
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Posted - 2013.06.26 09:26:00 -
[29] - Quote
Jacabon Mere wrote:From all the math done, there is clearly an overwhelming undersupply of r64's.
And someone just put an accidental buy order for photonic metamaterials up at 133500/unit and netted me a cool 6.3 bil in extra cash.
Who says it was an accident? Stupid margin scammer is stupid. |
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.06.26 15:27:00 -
[30] - Quote
Hafnium has been looking interesting even though its not an r64. In particular the volume has been around a million units higher per day since the patch. Possibly people dumping stock or maybe a new higher demand for that mineral? Its been 1.5 million units a day on the way down, but also the same volume now that its on its way up. |
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