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IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs Zulu People
45
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Posted - 2013.06.12 12:03:00 -
[31] - Quote
Well written article, clear and simple.
Moongoo is my thing. Microprocessors built before patch, panic sells at any price of closing reaction lines in war regions + normal sells to fuel the war effort will keep price in check of basic goo for next short period.
After that, +1 to mynnna. |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1194
|
Posted - 2013.06.12 13:01:00 -
[32] - Quote
i'm not sure if i agree with mynna's numbers in detail but the overall trends are certainly correct (and somewhat obvious).
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
Felicity Love
STARKRAFT Joint Venture Conglomerate
672
|
Posted - 2013.06.12 14:46:00 -
[33] - Quote
Grozen wrote:
But for the long term speculation 8months is my positive speculation prediction, we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that?There will be massive panic sell which will further delay the inevitable rise in the long distant future 1year+....I think new ice intervention is inevitable for the sake of the everyone who holds ice stock and I for one would welcome it because as it is ice will become a big pile of goo if nothing is done.
All of which spells "Opportunity" for those that are patient.
Kick back, have a mojito and relax.
Proud Beta Tester for "Bumping Uglies for Dummies" |
Marsan
Caldari Provisions
117
|
Posted - 2013.06.12 16:15:00 -
[34] - Quote
Mojito!!! What are you thinking!!! Have a warm beer instead we've got to conserve Ice it's Blue Gold!!!! Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a hopeful small portion of the community. |
Gizznitt Malikite
Agony Unleashed Agony Empire
2205
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Posted - 2013.06.12 18:26:00 -
[35] - Quote
GreenSeed wrote:no, its not about ISK/h. ice mining could be 4billon isk/h and you could have every single highsec player doing it and it would do nothing to increase supply. lets assume every high sec belt gets mined in the exact moment it spawns, triggering the 4hr cooldown immediately. that averages to 625 ice cubes per hour, per belt.
considering that before this changes you had at least 80 - 90 macks per belt, mining 24/7, you were looking at 5,600 ice cubes per hour per belt.
quite the drop in supply.
The drop in supply is a WONDERFUL thing.... I don't understand your complaint! What is ice used for:
For Isotopes: Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 10k isotopes a day, 5k for Medium, 2.5k for a Small. Jump Logistics <- A jump logistics ship (Carrier/JF) typically uses about 5-10k isotopes per jump.
For LO: J-Bridge <- 150-300 LO per BS using the JB. Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 3600 ozone a day, 1800 for Medium, 900 for a Small.
1 highsec ice gives 25 LO and 300 Isotopes. Think how much ice was mined to setup the several 1000+ pilot CFC vs 1000+ pilot Test+ fights that have happened over the last two weeks! This is a wonderful thing!!!
Now, there is one area that really needs to be addressed: The 1000 isk base + 333 isk per hour charge for highsec S&I services... This is OBNOXIOUSLY too low and really needs to be increased to 100k isk base + 33.3k isk per hour. This will go a long way to rebalance highsec POS S&I vs highsec Station S&I, without hurting the manufacturer, as they'll simply pass the price along to the consumer!
GreenSeed wrote: but that's even before we consider the naturally occurring cartel due to 70% of the cubes going to the same person, when before all miners needed to enter the market was a barge, a stopwatch, and a book to read. ... here's also the problem mentioned by VV of corp fleets and boxing fleets, they act as a sort of natural cartel. they don't care about market prices, they care about plexing the accounts. once they do for the month, they don't stop mining but they do stop selling ice. that is already strangulating extraction even more.
Setting up a "cartel" takes a little more work than you realize, and frankly, it gives you a target to attack. Don't like them dominating your system, have them wardecced and/or harrassed by bumpers and Suicide Gankers. It's about time you start treating the highsec resources in EvE as a limited resource worthy of fighting over!!
GreenSeed wrote: unlike most other production/extraction method in game the supply is not limited by the interest on players to partake in it, its limited by the game mechanics. this is why so many people were against it, but they were accused of being "AFK miners" and shunned... so now we have a crucial commodity with an artificial supply. yay
Ice is by no means nearly as limited as moongoo, and the moongoo market has been very successful economic engine. Ice will be mined in nullsec, which means there is as much ice out there as people could want, it's just a matter of being willing to risk your assets to go get it!
GreenSeed wrote: and forget about null exporting until they remove that awful 4hr CD. i could go on for a full post about the dreadfulness of a nomad null mining op, not to mention miners piloting JFs...
First of all, nullsec doesn't need to "export ice". Highsec more than produces enough ice to supply it's own demands, and exports it to nullsec! Next, while I agree the size of Ice makes nullsec ice mining prohibitive, perhaps you should quit bitching and state what you need to make it work:
POS Refining, Better Rorqual Compression rates, Optimized Rorquals for mining, etc.. |
Sir SmashAlot
The League of Extraordinary Opportunists Intergalactic Conservation Movement
21
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Posted - 2013.06.12 18:52:00 -
[36] - Quote
If I had any regrets when it came to playing this expansion, it would have been studying reactions, exploration loot tables, and component markets more closely.
The new decryptors (as well as current ones are falling in price) will turn my production lines on their head. I now understand why some T2 BPO holders are cashing out.
Should be fun times ahead as I think many players are still digesting all the changes. I know for myself there is still so much to go over.
As for Mynna's article, he is guessing like the rest of us, sophisticated tools or not, it still requires interpretation of the data. |
YuuKnow
Terra-Formers
814
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Posted - 2013.06.12 23:41:00 -
[37] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:There's not a lot to discuss about that blog. I'd have to discuss about this other: Quote: Highsec ice miners have nothing to whine about. Their harvesters are getting a 50% duration buff, and with fuel prices going through the roof, they can expect their per hour income to at least double, if not triple or quadruple by the summer expansion
1) Prices don't seem really rising *that* high ATM, eh? 2) Income per hour counts little when you can't make an "income per hour". Getting a *slim* chance to arrive before there are 3 roids left (and 40 ships off 2 multiboxers) does not make an income per hour. You are not going to get rich with those 10 cubes every 4 hours you manage to sgnatch off the multiboxers. 3) Basically it's another incentive to null sec, where a pathetically BAD and WoW alike canned progression model desperately attempts to push the players to.
Try a system less mined. One of my most frequented system has had two belts up and runnning consistently for the last few days I've checked. There is a steady, but small contingent of miners there.
yk |
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
216
|
Posted - 2013.06.12 23:58:00 -
[38] - Quote
Pre patch I would have said that I thought low-end mineral prices would go up as people migrated to ice mining. Now that I've seen how it's working, at least in high-sec, ice miners are having to adjust and I suspect many will start mining ore, which will keep the price of low-ends stable or may even drop them a bit.
As for ice miners, I think until you can make over 100mil per hour mining ice in low or null-sec you won't see a massive transition from ore mining (or ratting) to ice mining as a way of making isk. That 100mil per hour, if you work it out for the component prices, should give you a ball park figure for the lowest price that ice materials will climb to. The highest I think it will get is about 20% above what you can make farming cosmic anomolies. If it gets much higher than that then large numbers of people *will* migrate to mining ice until the prices drop again. I think long term the price will stabilize at somewhere around that 100mil per hour mark.
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sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.06.13 00:43:00 -
[39] - Quote
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:[quote=GreenSeed]no, its not about ISK/h. ice mining could be 4billon isk/h and you could have every single highsec player doing it and it would do nothing to increase supply. lets assume every high sec belt gets mined in the exact moment it spawns, triggering the 4hr cooldown immediately. that averages to 625 ice cubes per hour, per belt.
considering that before this changes you had at least 80 - 90 macks per belt, mining 24/7, you were looking at 5,600 ice cubes per hour per belt.
quite the drop in supply.
The drop in supply is a WONDERFUL thing.... I don't understand your complaint! What is ice used for:
For Isotopes: Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 10k isotopes a day, 5k for Medium, 2.5k for a Small. Jump Logistics <- A jump logistics ship (Carrier/JF) typically uses about 5-10k isotopes per jump.
For LO: J-Bridge <- 150-300 LO per BS using the JB. Fueling POS's <- A large tower uses about 3600 ozone a day, 1800 for Medium, 900 for a Small.
1 highsec ice gives 25 LO and 300 Isotopes. Think how much ice was mined to setup the several 1000+ pilot CFC vs 1000+ pilot Test+ fights that have happened over the last two weeks! This is a wonderful thing!!!
Now, there is one area that really needs to be addressed: The 1000 isk base + 333 isk per hour charge for highsec S&I services... This is OBNOXIOUSLY too low and really needs to be increased to 100k isk base + 33.3k isk per hour. This will go a long way to rebalance highsec POS S&I vs highsec Station S&I, without hurting the manufacturer, as they'll simply pass the price along to the consumer!
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I read in the odyssey release notes that high sec ice anomilies only contain racial ice? If that is true, then the only source of LO would be low/null sec? |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1270
|
Posted - 2013.06.13 04:50:00 -
[40] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I read in the odyssey release notes that high sec ice anomilies only contain racial ice? If that is true, then the only source of LO would be low/null sec?
Racial ice still contains trace amounts of LO and if you poke around make some estimates from old diagoras numbers you get something absurd like that those trace amounts nonetheless supplied ~2/3 of the game's LO, simply by virtue of so damn much of it being mined.
Obviously, highsec isn't supplying 2/3 of the game's LO anymore. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
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Caleb Ayrania
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
164
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Posted - 2013.06.13 05:15:00 -
[41] - Quote
I think its fair to say this topic is getting tilted a bit..
The new changes strain the available ICE. This really cant be disputed, and the numbers have been crunched.
Hands on intel gathered from the belts is very low, so the pace needed is not getting picked up..
Yes stockpiles have been hoarded by quite a lot of speculators.
The point is this is not like Procurers or Battleships. The drain on ICE products is huge and not something where current stock will last for global years of consumption.
When the "warehouse" speculative stock runs dry the prices will go very high, the only reason it has not is because noone really knows how much is on stock, and where price will eventually land.
From Rhivres and Mynnnas research I would estimate even above what have been predicted. Closer to the scale of 400-500% pre Odyssey, then the 200-300% currently expected. The hoarded stock is slowing down the new price level.
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sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.06.13 14:07:00 -
[42] - Quote
mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I read in the odyssey release notes that high sec ice anomilies only contain racial ice? If that is true, then the only source of LO would be low/null sec? Racial ice still contains trace amounts of LO and if you poke around make some estimates from old diagoras numbers you get something absurd like that those trace amounts nonetheless supplied ~2/3 of the game's LO, simply by virtue of so damn much of it being mined. Obviously, highsec isn't supplying 2/3 of the game's LO anymore.
Thx for the reply. Yea that's the ice product I am expecting to surprise us all and go crazy high as some will have to be imported from null from now on.
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Manny Moons
New Order Logistics CODE.
123
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Posted - 2013.06.13 14:37:00 -
[43] - Quote
The choice to mine ice, pre-Odyssey, was not generally based on the ISK/hr of the activity. It was based on the lack of active effort required. Odyssey has changed the characteristics of ice-mining, increasing the ISK/hr (of actual mining time), but also the active effort required. It is way too early to accurately measure the effects, because it will likely take many months for all the variables to stabilize. There is one known fact that is difficult to dispute: the amount of ice mined in highsec cannot exceed the amount of ice that exists in highsec. We can argue about how closely the amount mined will be to that theoretical maximum, or about how demand for ice products will fall, or about how much more ice mining will occur in low and null sec. But what we know is enough to convince me that higher ice prices are inevitable.
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Dave Stark
3172
|
Posted - 2013.06.13 15:55:00 -
[44] - Quote
Manny Moons wrote:but also the active effort required.
nope. still as afkable as before. except now it's harder to find an ice asteroid to go afk next to. it's still the least interactive activity in the game that you can't do from a station. |
Manny Moons
New Order Logistics CODE.
124
|
Posted - 2013.06.13 17:44:00 -
[45] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Manny Moons wrote:but also the active effort required. nope. still as afkable as before. except now it's harder to find an ice asteroid to go afk next to. it's still the least interactive activity in the game that you can't do from a station. I was including the bother of chasing down the anomalies.
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Marsan
Caldari Provisions
117
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Posted - 2013.06.13 19:31:00 -
[46] - Quote
Which is why I suspect the hard core ice miners will simply place an alt or 2 in a central location. Place jump clones and mining ships in other central locations. They will move to where the ice is as long as it can be done quickly via gates or jump clones. In the end they will likely make more isk. The average miner will only find Ice in a couple out of the way systems on any regular basis, and generally be mining the Veld.... Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a hopeful small portion of the community. |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
286
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 15:45:00 -
[47] - Quote
So, I did a little trip round highsec.
During US, and EU prime time.
[Usual dislaimers about this being a snapshot of a moment in time]
Ice Mining Snapshot
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mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1272
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 16:18:00 -
[48] - Quote
With all the disclaimers that it's a single data point and extrapolating from a single data point is foolish, I'm going to extrapolate from a single data point.
Rhivre's data indicates an average of ten miners per active belt. Assuming that that's fairly indicative of prime time weekday mining, then we're seeing an average clear time of about two hours at fastest, which means that on average there's no fifth spawn, which means that we're seeing less than the 80% of maximum highsec ice coming from highsec.
Be interesting to see what the numbers looks like throughout the day as well as during the weekend over a period of a couple of weeks. With enough trial accounts and too much time on ones hands, this could be done... Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
286
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 17:25:00 -
[49] - Quote
Hmm, I would agree with the overall assessment, however, the 48m clear time required for five spawns is based on Lvl V macks boosted by an orca.
While the orcas ofc do not need to be on grid, not all systems have an orca, and not all ships are macks.
I have screenshots for each system (And no, you cant have them :p ) so I will update the makeup of ships as well, and stick that on the bottom of the sheet |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1272
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 18:38:00 -
[50] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:
While the orcas ofc do not need to be on grid, not all systems have an orca, and not all ships are macks.
All of these things (except "not all ships are macks" anyway, provided they're hulks instead) only further diminish the estimate. So does the fact that 10/belt is a primetime number. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
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Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
286
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 19:08:00 -
[51] - Quote
Sheet is updated with breakdown of the ships in the active anoms at the time of the snapshot |
Adunh Slavy
954
|
Posted - 2013.06.14 21:14:00 -
[52] - Quote
Ice in null inelastic, in high sec, more elastic.
Discuss |
Erotica 1
Krypteia Operations
457
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 00:39:00 -
[53] - Quote
I personally found the article on www.themittani.com very well written, as always. I find it deplorable that people would accuse a CSM representative of manipulating the markets. See Bio for isk doubling rules. -áIf you didn't read bio, chances are you helped fund those who did. |
Grozen
Titan Core
11
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Posted - 2013.06.15 11:41:00 -
[54] - Quote
10 people mining ice anoms on average?Bs.As someone who is mining ice i refuse to believe otherwise until I'm given ingame screenshots of 40 systems then I'd buy it.In just one of the systems I visit the average count of miners is 20 without me bringing myself in the picture and that is on a good day.Yesterday the ice anom i was in was cleared in 10minutes after spawn. It seems that whenever people leave ice mining for ores new people(or bots) replace them.Also Jita sales volume is still the same as it was before patch, which means I will say it again there's absolutely no shortage atm.Look the most popular fuel blocks crashing hard.These 170k p/u buy orders are also very fishy.Because other system prices are usually up to date with jitas orders but you will rarely find the same orders outside of jita. knowledge is power. |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
287
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 14:13:00 -
[55] - Quote
You would like screenshots?
How many would you like? |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4186
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 16:35:00 -
[56] - Quote
Regarding my own "data point": first of all is one of those "zero" miners listed systems, which leads me to think they were not visited (yet). The average in local through the day is 28, it goes either to 37 / 45 / 55 when a spawn comes up.
37 is the last spawn before downtime, I noticed that said spawn does NOT despawn over DT (you can just relog after DT and the ships end in the "new" spawn) and initial observation leads me to think it has some refilling (but not to full) during DT so the first spawn after DT is smaller than the norm (*).
45 is 1st or 2nd respawn, 55+ is subsequent spawns. It peaked at 75 during the first days, then a lot of miners gave up as the belt was being eaten very fast. With the 2 multiboxers, each roid would last 2-3 cycles tops.
Most used ships by casuals: retrievers and Macks. Most used by Orca 4-6 accounters: Macks and Hulks. Most used by multiboxers: Orca + Providence + retrievers.
(*) Edit for Mynna: if this will be confirmed, then not only we don't get enough spawns mined for the 80% but having a "reused" post DT spawn means even less mined ice supply than initially supposed. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
287
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 16:53:00 -
[57] - Quote
VV. They are visited.
0 = Anom not there.
Hence "Anom depleted"
As the data says at the bottom of the sheet "Anoms not visited" = 8 |
Umar Umarhabib
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
12
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Posted - 2013.06.15 18:00:00 -
[58] - Quote
Erotica 1 wrote:I personally found the article on www.themittani.com very well written, as always. I find it deplorable that people would accuse a CSM representative of manipulating the markets.
There is a chance he could be wrong about Ice, but I don't think he's trying to manipulate the market either =P |
Jori McKie
Friends Of Harassment
75
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 18:02:00 -
[59] - Quote
btw. There are some lowsec systems which are soooo in the boondocks it's not funny. There is no traffic at all and i just run through them because i forget to set my alt's autopilot back to highsec only. Just check out the Khanid, Kador and Genesis lowsec, there is mostly empty space.
e.g. this system hast 2 ice belts http://evemaps.dotlan.net/system/Assez/celestials and http://evemaps.dotlan.net/map/Genesis/Assez#jumps24 |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
287
|
Posted - 2013.06.15 18:10:00 -
[60] - Quote
Yeah, I noticed a lot of empty lowsec systems on my travels, with not only plenty of ice, but plenty of combat sites. |
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