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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
El 1974
Green Visstick High Green Rhino
90
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Posted - 2013.07.18 07:35:00 -
[1] - Quote
In recent history a number of alliances have been trying to manipulate the moon goo market. They stocked up large quantities of moon goo in an attempt to raise the price. In a response CCP changed the rules of the game and now those alliances are strapped for cash and sitting on huge amounts of moon goo that they can sell for only a fraction of the value of what they hoped it would be worth.
So instead of learning from their recent history those alliances are now involved in a war about another type of moongoo. All hoping to gain control over this hopefully valuable resource.
It seems that CCP learned from their earlier design flaw and made it a lot harder for alliances to gain control over the production of the 'new tech'. Control over Fountain will not allow one producer to control the market. I also think that this stuff is not going to be the same kind of isk printing machine that tech once was. CFC sources state that prices are not yet where they think they should settle. They expect prices to settle at much higher levels. I personally think they misguessed the impact of the Odyssey changes. Also if alliances find the isk to stock up enough moon goo again to seriously manipulate the market, CCP is just going to change the rules of the game again.
What do you think about future prices for R64? Will the CFC be able to manipulate the prices once they finally take Fountain? Do you expect alliances to run out of cash and start selling their tech, thus crashing the market? |
Adunh Slavy
1168
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Posted - 2013.07.18 07:49:00 -
[2] - Quote
If the changed moons are spread far and wide, then it will be very difficult for anyone group to set the price for very long. They may attempt to form cartels, but someone always cheats (which tends to start disagreements, and in Eve, usually resolved with guns.) Also there is alchemy, if the price gets high enough, the substitution effect will kick in and mitigate prices.
If it turns out that it is too easy to control, will CCP change it? They left the Tech situation to fester for a very long time, so don't think that can be counted upon.
Prices like tech saw at its peak as a result of supply control, are gone forever, I suspect. Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.-á-á- William Pitt |
Aliventi
Burning Napalm Northern Coalition.
232
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 07:52:00 -
[3] - Quote
The reason the prices haven't hit where they should end up is people had tens of millions of units of these previously useless R64 goo stocked up. They gambled that CCP would make R64s worth it eventually and won. The R64 bottleneck is there. However, enough time hasn't passed to absorb the stockpiles. Prices will rise in time.
You can't really manipulate R64 materials like you could Tech. Tech was predominately in Venal. R64 moons are scattered and intemixed across all the regions. Taking Fountain won't allow you superior control over a specific R64 goo. Instead it will allow you more of all 4 types of R64 goo. To get the effects of OTEC you would need to control all the space in New Eden. If you hold back R64 goo your enemies will enjoy higher prices at your expense. So there will never be an effective manipulation like OTEC again.
Also, CCP is more than likely to change up the mechanics behind acquiring moon goo. They have stated that they do not like passive income, and they they don't really like the top down isk model that nullsec alliances use that is funded by moon goo. Expect something like Ring Mining that CCP has prototyped to step up and take this over in the next few expansions. This will remove the passive and allow for a bottom up income model.
Also, Tech crashed a while ago. Tech is dead. And good riddance. "tbh most people don't care about removing local from highsec. They want it gone from nullsec. I want to be able to solo roam hunt without everyone knowing I am there without them actually seeing me jump through the gate. Effortless intel is bad." ~Me |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1323
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 12:41:00 -
[4] - Quote
I think three things.
- You don't know **** about our stockpiles. We were, in fact, selling almost all of our Tech at a slight discount to internal membership for them to use in reactions, so Tech stockpiles are actually rather small.
- You don't know **** about moon goo, otherwise you'd realize how silly it is to say "Welp I guess everyone was wrong" only a month and a half after the patch.
- You basically don't know ****.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
SencneS
Incertae Sedis
32
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 15:09:00 -
[5] - Quote
I kind of doubt there is massive stock piles of R64 goo, for a start the supply was limited even though it was not as popular as Tech. Also why milk moon for R64's when it was bearly worth the fuel to maintain it for an extended period.
Years ago someone posts on the old forums the basic theory of moon goo. It went something like - If you can't produce moon goo over the space of a year to cover 25% of the cost of POS fuel, it's not worth mining.
The logistics behind moon goo back when this was posted was significant, something that isn't the case today, however a little bit of the theory is still valid. While you could easily make a marginal profit on those R64s that were not expensive due to saturation and lack of consumption.
If the market for your product is saturated, you often stop producing it with a medium sized stockpile for personal consumption and maybe a quick sell if the market spikes. This general theory is valid for all items in EVE, R64's had this situation for years, so expect stock piles to not be as large as you would think. |
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 15:31:00 -
[6] - Quote
If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1334
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 18:41:00 -
[7] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons.
There are more than enough caesium moons to ensure that 114 of them is not "the majority". Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Frostys Virpio
Lame Corp Name
581
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 19:08:00 -
[8] - Quote
mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons. There are more than enough caesium moons to ensure that 114 of them is not "the majority".
The real question about moons is will they still be an incentive for more conflicts once Fountains is over? |
Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
939
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 20:11:00 -
[9] - Quote
In other news, monkeys fling poo Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.07.18 23:06:00 -
[10] - Quote
mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons. There are more than enough caesium moons to ensure that 114 of them is not "the majority". You are right, its not the majority. However it will be a little less than half in those two areas alone. Fountain and aridia have 114 caesium moons and the rest of the game has 148. |
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mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1337
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 01:10:00 -
[11] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons. There are more than enough caesium moons to ensure that 114 of them is not "the majority". You are right, its not the majority. However it will be a little less than half in those two areas alone. Fountain and aridia have 114 caesium moons and the rest of the game has 148.
If Dotlan is accurate and has accounted for every moon. You'll excuse me if I decline to buy that. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 02:01:00 -
[12] - Quote
mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons. There are more than enough caesium moons to ensure that 114 of them is not "the majority". You are right, its not the majority. However it will be a little less than half in those two areas alone. Fountain and aridia have 114 caesium moons and the rest of the game has 148. If Dotlan is accurate and has accounted for every moon. You'll excuse me if I decline to buy that. Im sure its not 100 percent accurate but moon goo has been out for 5+ years im sure it has decent level of accuracy. Im sure dotlan isn't off by hundreds of moons. |
Aliventi
Burning Napalm Northern Coalition.
240
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 02:19:00 -
[13] - Quote
It is off by a ton of moons. Several hundred or even thousands of moons off. "tbh most people don't care about removing local from highsec. They want it gone from nullsec. I want to be able to solo roam hunt without everyone knowing I am there without them actually seeing me jump through the gate. Effortless intel is bad." ~Me |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1338
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 02:44:00 -
[14] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:mynnna wrote:sackofwine wrote:If CFC takes fountain, sure they will get those r64 but they will have the majority of the caesium in the game. Between fountain and aridia theres 114 caesium moons. There are more than enough caesium moons to ensure that 114 of them is not "the majority". You are right, its not the majority. However it will be a little less than half in those two areas alone. Fountain and aridia have 114 caesium moons and the rest of the game has 148. If Dotlan is accurate and has accounted for every moon. You'll excuse me if I decline to buy that. Im sure its not 100 percent accurate but moon goo has been out for 5+ years im sure it has decent level of accuracy. Im sure dotlan isn't off by hundreds of moons.
Believe what you want, but speaking as someone with access to what is probably one of the most complete moon scan databases in the game, you're wrong. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
arabella blood
Deep Core Mining Inc. Caldari State
81
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 04:32:00 -
[15] - Quote
I love how Goon's only porpuse on this forum is to scream "We are not as transparent as you think" & "we have secret plans you can't even imagine" & "you have no idea whats the reasons behind what we do"... Same goes to the burn jita analyze thread, and same here...
Sweet little manic bees... |
Professional Forum Alt
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
20
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 05:38:00 -
[16] - Quote
Wow - long time since I seen so many butthurt goon comments in one thread
Surely goons must be doing well
Any typos, spelling errors and bad grammer found, are free and yours to keep |
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 13:57:00 -
[17] - Quote
Believe what you want, but speaking as someone with access to what is probably one of the most complete moon scan databases in the game, you're wrong.[/quote]
I'll correct, I'm actually right, maybe the information provided to me is wrong. Last comment ill make, I have moon mined for years. I have scanned hundreds of moons over the years and I have yet to find a moon that was not already accounted for on dotlan. |
SencneS
Incertae Sedis
32
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 15:04:00 -
[18] - Quote
There are better database for what moons have then dotlan...
dotlan is ok, but believe me, personal checking of one region I personally scanned down all the moon, it was about only about 70-80% accurate. I should clear this up a little.. The moons that dotlan had was almost completely accurate, it is what it didn't have which made it in-accurate.
A pretty decent amount of pretty nice moons was missing. However, this was a few years ago, so my information may be out-dated. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1342
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 17:50:00 -
[19] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:Believe what you want, but speaking as someone with access to what is probably one of the most complete moon scan databases in the game, you're wrong.
I'll correct. I'm actually right, maybe the information provided to me is wrong. Last comment ill make, I have moon mined for years. I have scanned hundreds of moons over the years and I have yet to find a moon that was not already accounted for on dotlan.[/quote] There are tens of thousands of moons in the game, assuming dotlan is correct because of your anecdotal experience involving a small fraction of that is foolish. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Dunka Panala
Iskender Kebap Corp FROST Alliance
1
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 17:54:00 -
[20] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:
[...] I have scanned hundreds of moons over the years [...]
- no comment - |
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sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 18:31:00 -
[21] - Quote
Heres a nifty little site right here. http://k162space.com/2013/01/30/visualization-of-moon-mineral-concentrations/
This site is not 100 percent accurate either in fact far from it. But if you scroll down you see the distribution map. This tells us the way ccp distributed certain minerals to certain regions. In the case of caesium you see it is almost completely concentrated in the west. So when you say there are 10's of thousands of moons in eve that's true. However, in the case of caesium we are talking about a way smaller number of potential moons that contain that mineral. |
RAW23
220
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 18:37:00 -
[22] - Quote
mynnna wrote:
If Dotlan is accurate and has accounted for every moon. You'll excuse me if I decline to buy that.
For his point to stand it doesnGÇÖt matter if the dotlan sample is complete, only that the sample is proportionately representative. Are there any reasons to think that it is not? Perhaps Aridia and Fountain are better mapped than other regions? There are two types of EVE player:
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not. |
Dunka Panala
Iskender Kebap Corp FROST Alliance
1
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 19:00:00 -
[23] - Quote
sackofwine wrote:Heres a nifty little site right here. http://k162space.com/2013/01/30/visualization-of-moon-mineral-concentrations/This site is not 100 percent accurate either in fact far from it. But if you scroll down you see the distribution map. This tells us the way ccp distributed certain minerals to certain regions. In the case of caesium you see it is almost completely concentrated in the west. So when you say there are 10's of thousands of moons in eve that's true. However, in the case of caesium we are talking about a way smaller number of potential moons that contain that mineral.
Cache = 0,67 % coverage Curse = 7,4 % coverage Delve = 2,4 % coverage Derelik = 6% coverage Deteroid = 7,6 % coverage Devoid = 4,3 % coverage . . . Only 2 Regions with barely 50% coverage and 11 Regions with more then 40%. That means every second moon is unkown.
Most of the Caesium might be found in the western part of the donut (~60-70%). So are Hafnium and Mercury for the east and Techn for the north.
Most of the Moons are in player hands so Goonswarm will never see the Goo. Why? Because they tax the moons and will not keep it. To get into some kind of an Oligopol the group of Caesium holders should hold at least 85% of a source, which is not met by the current circumstances.
Nothing will change after the GS have taken Fountain. |
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp Goonswarm Federation
882
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 20:41:00 -
[24] - Quote
RAW23 wrote:mynnna wrote:
If Dotlan is accurate and has accounted for every moon. You'll excuse me if I decline to buy that.
For his point to stand it doesnGÇÖt matter if the dotlan sample is complete, only that the sample is proportionately representative. Are there any reasons to think that it is not? Perhaps Aridia and Fountain are better mapped than other regions? Dotlan's scans are highly variable between regions. Lowsec tends to be fairly complete, conquerable 0.0 is often woefully incomplete and with deliberate lies (back in the tech days more than a few venal techs were listed on dotlan as tungsten). |
Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
939
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 21:02:00 -
[25] - Quote
Coco, this is the sign for Moon. *waves hand* Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve. |
SencneS
Incertae Sedis
32
|
Posted - 2013.07.19 21:29:00 -
[26] - Quote
haha .... If I can find my data for Geminate I think I would hand it over to the guy with the moon analysis.. I think I scanned over 3000 moons in the hole of a region and his data only has 344 of them.
Got to find it first... |
Dunka Panala
Iskender Kebap Corp FROST Alliance
1
|
Posted - 2013.07.20 01:16:00 -
[27] - Quote
IMHO It would be really funny if CCP introduces some kind of Moon Goo Interaction where you must klick some random icons to get a moongoo pinata. The actual system of moonmining is really sad, especially in a big Alliance where most of the interesting moons got occupied by offlined blue towers
EDIT : It should be possible to get at least some kind of R64 in each moon on a percentual basis. 1-2 units of a random R64 per cycle mixed with other R32 (2-4), R16 (4-8), R8 (8-16) etc would be fair. |
sackofwine
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2013.07.20 14:36:00 -
[28] - Quote
i never said they would have cartel status with caesium. I find it hard to believe goons would spend trillions of isk going after 58 r64 moons in fountain. Now i know goons will scream "Dotlan isn't accurate idiot!". But as was stated earlier in thread the totals in dotlan are proportional estimates. Fountain in dotlan is 84% complete. Now how many more moons could there really be not accounted for? Handful at most. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1345
|
Posted - 2013.07.20 17:51:00 -
[29] - Quote
Dunka Panala wrote:IMHO It would be really funny if CCP introduces some kind of Moon Goo Interaction where you must klick some random icons to get a moongoo pinata. The actual system of moonmining is really sad, especially in a big Alliance where most of the interesting moons got occupied by offlined blue towers EDIT : It should be possible to get at least some kind of R64 in each moon on a percentual basis. 1-2 units of a random R64 per cycle mixed with other R32 (2-4), R16 (4-8), R8 (8-16) etc would be fair.
I'm sure Fozzie appreciates any idea that would force him to completely rebuild moon goo consumption ratios from the ground up, which is what your idea would require.
sackofwine wrote:i never said they would have cartel status with caesium. I find it hard to believe goons would spend trillions of isk going after 58 r64 moons in fountain. Now i know goons will scream "Dotlan isn't accurate idiot!". Fountain in dotlan is 84% complete. Now how many more moons could there really be not accounted for? Handful at most.
Fountain may be 84% complete, but you seem to believe it when Dotlan says there's only ~250 Caesium moons in all of Eve. That is where the problem is here.
Also, Dotlan's percent complete indicator makes no accounting for the accuracy of the data, only that data is present for a given moon. As weaselior noted, the data has been known to be poisoned in the past. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
forestwho
Foonfleet Investment Banking
47
|
Posted - 2013.07.20 18:34:00 -
[30] - Quote
mynnna wrote:I think three things.
- You don't know **** about our stockpiles. We were, in fact, selling almost all of our Tech at a slight discount to internal membership for them to use in reactions, so Tech stockpiles are actually rather small.
- You don't know **** about moon goo, otherwise you'd realize how silly it is to say "Welp I guess everyone was wrong" only a month and a half after the patch.
- You basically don't know ****.
I find this inappropiate languish for a CSM spokesman, i will go petition this. |
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