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Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 25 post(s) |
Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
67
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 17:30:00 -
[2611] - Quote
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Jonah Gravenstein wrote: 10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.
Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.
Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps? Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs? 3 freighters passing through a chokepoint in a 24 hour period would indicate that something is very very wrong with the economy, which there is not, ergo my traffic scenario is a lot more likely than yours
Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers is just as likely as the number of hauler jumps being 3, both are complete and utter trash. Unless you know the true number or have a way of accurately estimating the number of those total jumps that were tied to freighters we can't say if it's an appropriate number or not. |
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
19589
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 17:45:00 -
[2612] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote: Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers is just as likely as the number of hauler jumps being 3, both are complete and utter trash. Unless you know the true number or have a way of accurately estimating the number of those total jumps that were tied to freighters we can't say if it's an appropriate number or not.
Nowhere did I assume or state that those 35k jumps were all hauler jumps. If I had assumed that all of the jumps were haulers then the following would be superfluous
I wrote:hauler kills as a percentage of total kills 9.8% : (10/102)*100
The fact is that I took great pains to point out that I had only covered the losses to freighter and hauler traffic which implies, pretty strongly, that there were other sorts of traffic
Reading comprehension, you should train it to at least level 1.
Nil mortifi sine lucre |
Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
69
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 17:46:00 -
[2613] - Quote
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Jonah Gravenstein wrote: 10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.
Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.
Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps? Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs? So you think a grand total of 3 freighters travel from Dodi to Jita in 24h... Wow you sure have a feel for numbers. My hauling alt often goes through Uedama. She always sees at least 1 freighter in system, no matter the time of day. Assuming 2 minutes gate-to-gate travel time (it's actually less), that means at least 30 freighters per hour, or over 600 per day. So Jonah's 'several hundred' is either spot on or underestimated. 3 freighters per day... lmao!
He based his numbers on 35k the total number of jumps then tied that to the number of hauler loses.
If you're correct and it's a 1/200 chance to lose a freighter, then freighter ganking is too high in Uedama as it takes over 2000 jumps to replace the freighter hull alone, forget any cargo it was carrying. 625k Isk per jump is based on the market value of 1bil collateral, freighter cargo size, jita-dodixie from push industries.
See how pointless it is to debate the unknown?
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admiral root
Red Galaxy
1419
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 17:46:00 -
[2614] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers
Please point to the bit where he said that. No, your rights end in optimal+2*falloff |
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
19589
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 17:54:00 -
[2615] - Quote
admiral root wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers Please point to the bit where he said that. He can't, because I didn't.
Nil mortifi sine lucre |
Gully Alex Foyle
Black Fox Marauders Repeat 0ffenders
1225
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 18:16:00 -
[2616] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:Gully Alex Foyle wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Jonah Gravenstein wrote: 10 ships got killed while hauling through Uedama during the 24 hour period I used, I have no doubt that several hundred other ships, also hauling and which didn't get killed, passed through Uedama during that same period.
Therefore, given the data available, my point stands. The chances of getting ganked in a chokepoint system are very very small. There is no glut of suicide ganking, there is however, a glut of moaning minnies whining about it.
Lmao! No the fact that there is no better info available does not mean your admittedly flawed stats "stand" by default. Your stats actually show nothing to prove the "very very small" chance of having a freighter ganked in Uedama, unless of course you can provide a % of freighter jumps? Take for example if the number of freighter jumps for the same period are 3, that would mean with 3 freighters ganked there is a 100% chance of being ganked in Uedama. See how easily we can bend stats to fit our needs? So you think a grand total of 3 freighters travel from Dodi to Jita in 24h... Wow you sure have a feel for numbers. My hauling alt often goes through Uedama. She always sees at least 1 freighter in system, no matter the time of day. Assuming 2 minutes gate-to-gate travel time (it's actually less), that means at least 30 freighters per hour, or over 600 per day. So Jonah's 'several hundred' is either spot on or underestimated. 3 freighters per day... lmao! He based his numbers on 35k the total number of jumps then tied that to the number of hauler loses. If you're correct and it's a 1/200 chance to lose a freighter, then freighter ganking is too high in Uedama as it takes over 2000 jumps to replace the freighter hull alone, forget any cargo it was carrying. 625k Isk per jump is based on the market value of 1bil collateral, freighter cargo size, jita-dodixie from push industries. See how pointless it is to debate the unknown? Forum trolling aside, it's never pointless to try to make acceptable guesstimates on interesting topics.
I have to say your numbers are once again wrong.
Red Frog charges roughly 12 Million for a Jita-Dodi haul. So it takes 100 trips to break even on a freighter.
Assuming Uedama is (almost) the only really dangerous system on the route, you could on average double your freighter investment before you pop. But you're right, you'd just break even, including a 1Bil collateral.
So, this proves that if you're just an average freighter pilot, you'll barely break even.
If you pilot well, you make money, if you pilot badly, you lose money.
This is so working as intended it's unreal. |
Gavin Dax
Repercussus RAZOR Alliance
57
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 18:21:00 -
[2617] - Quote
admiral root wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers Please point to the bit where he said that.
Obviously his point was that the 35k were not haulers, but the argument that everyone so readily accepted and applauded drew a conclusion that would have only been correct if they were. The fact that no one on the extreme pro gank side corrected this, and that this argument has been made continuously, just shows the extent to which this thread has become a circle jerk. |
Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
69
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 18:22:00 -
[2618] - Quote
admiral root wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers Please point to the bit where he said that.
His very last calculation, can't crop on my phone sorry.
Something along the lines of
"Total number of suicide ganks vs total jumps 7/35k = .002%" seeing as how he only used the suicide ganked haulers (7) in his calculation and that it is the topic for discussion i assumed that he was only referring to that. The total number of suicide ganks would be far greater then 7, all those pods don't die without paying the concord. |
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
19590
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 18:30:00 -
[2619] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:admiral root wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers Please point to the bit where he said that. His very last calculation, can't crop on my phone sorry. Something along the lines of "Total number of suicide ganks vs total jumps 7/35k = .002%" seeing as how he only used the suicide ganked haulers (7) in his calculation and that it is the topic for discussion i assumed that he was only referring to that. The total number of suicide ganks would be far greater then 7, all those pods don't die without paying the concord.
Nope, you appear to have missed the follow up post (5 posts later, bottom of the page)
I wrote:lol bear in mind I only used the numbers for freighters and other haulers inc Orcas, so those figures exclude any other type of suicide gank, ie any pods or wandering miners.
Nil mortifi sine lucre |
Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
69
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 18:55:00 -
[2620] - Quote
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:Organic Lager wrote:admiral root wrote:Organic Lager wrote:Your traffic scenario of 35k jumps a day being all haulers Please point to the bit where he said that. His very last calculation, can't crop on my phone sorry. Something along the lines of "Total number of suicide ganks vs total jumps 7/35k = .002%" seeing as how he only used the suicide ganked haulers (7) in his calculation and that it is the topic for discussion i assumed that he was only referring to that. The total number of suicide ganks would be far greater then 7, all those pods don't die without paying the concord. Nope, you appear to have missed the follow up post, where I categorically state that I had excluded any suicide gank not hauler or freighter related. I wrote:lol bear in mind I only used the numbers for freighters and other haulers inc Orcas, so those figures exclude any other type of suicide gank, ie any pods or wandering miners. Please attempt to actually read, and understand, things before you try to pick holes in them.
But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible.
I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash.
Also did you take the hourly number of kills and the 24 hour number of jumps? Currently for the last 24 hours it's at 1500 kills + another 80 pods and 30k jumps. Unless i'm miss understanding something which is possible, going to double check on this now. |
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Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
19590
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 18:58:00 -
[2621] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:
Also did you take the hourly number of kills and the 24 hour number of jumps? Currently for the last 24 hours it's at 1500 kills + another 80 pods and 30k jumps. Unless i'm miss understanding something which is possible, going to double check on this now.
That was the 24 hour number of kills, the kills in the last hour stood at 2 when I took the figures.
Nil mortifi sine lucre |
Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
69
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 19:14:00 -
[2622] - Quote
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:Organic Lager wrote:But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible. There is no way of doing that, of you know of one then please enlighten us. Quote:I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash. Yet still more credible than anything you've posted, especially the one where only 3 freighters jumped through Uedama in a 24 hour period. Also did you take the hourly number of kills and the 24 hour number of jumps? Currently for the last 24 hours it's at 1500 kills + another 80 pods and 30k jumps. Unless i'm miss understanding something which is possible, going to double check on this now. That was the 24 hour number of kills, the kills in the last hour stood at 2 when I took the figures. Now look into the 1500 kills + the 80 pods, then tell us how many where freighters or industrial ships, here's a hint it's not a huge amount.[/quote]
Well then I guess we can both agree don't travel to Uedama on a monday, eh? |
baltec1
Bat Country Goonswarm Federation
12358
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 19:30:00 -
[2623] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:
Well then I guess we can both agree don't travel to Uedama on a monday, eh?
Only if you have several billion in the hold.
My freighter is several years old and never once has been shot at despite being used several times a day near every day.
Fact is that the average number of freighter ganks stands at around 6-10 out of tens of thousands of trips a day. Join Bat Country today and defend the Glorious Socialist Dictatorship |
Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
69
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:05:00 -
[2624] - Quote
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:Organic Lager wrote:But you decided to leave total jumps for all ships, had you reduced that down to just haulers (excluding pods, random miners or anyone else just generally passing through) then your numbers would be credible. There is no way of doing that, if you know of one then please enlighten us. Quote:I do thank you for clearing this up and proving my point that your numbers are utter trash. Yet still more credible than anything you've posted, especially the one where only 3 freighters jumped through Uedama in a 24 hour period.
You just made me facepalm so hard i nearly broke my nose.
There is no way to tell, that was exactly what I said in my first post. Your numbers are worthless because you don't know how many jumps were related to freighters, meaning you don't really know if the % killed is high or low.
I used 3 as an example of the other extreme, both are quite clearly and obviously wrong, the only difference is I actually knew mine was incorrect and only present it as an example. You seem to still believe that yours has some relevance, of what I'm not sure.
If you want to battle stupid points, 3 is actually going to be closer to the true number of freighter jumps then 35k, unless you honestly believe over 50% of the traffic through Uedama is freighters. |
Gully Alex Foyle
Black Fox Marauders Repeat 0ffenders
1234
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:16:00 -
[2625] - Quote
@Organic
I understand it's more fun to nitpick, but I already gave you a very reasonable estimate that confirms Jonah's guess (3 ganks out of around 500-600 freighters) and also happens to fit very well with freighter costs, Red Frog hauling rates and profitability based on gank-avoiding pilot skill.
Why are you still discussing this? Exact data is not necessary: gank probability for a freighter is less than 1% based on easily available figures / observable data.
That's an average, so if you're bad, you'll get ganked more. If you're good, probability is close to zero. |
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
19591
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:19:00 -
[2626] - Quote
[quote=Organic Lager There is no way to tell, that was exactly what I said in my first post. Your numbers are worthless because you don't know how many jumps were related to freighters, meaning you don't really know if the % killed is high or low.
I used 3 as an example of the other extreme, both are quite clearly and obviously wrong, the only difference is I actually knew mine was incorrect and only present it as an example. You seem to still believe that yours has some relevance, of what I'm not sure.[/quote] Yes my data is flawed, I've openly admitted it and said as much in the original post. The relevance is in that it compares the total amount of kills, with a further breakdown of freighter and industrial deaths to the total amount of traffic
Quote:If you want to battle stupid points, 3 is actually going to be closer to the true number of freighter jumps then 35k, unless you honestly believe over 50% of the traffic through Uedama is freighters. Yet it is far more likely that the amount of traffic through Uedama that is freighters and other haulers is far closer to 17376 (50% of 34752) than it is 3.
Nil mortifi sine lucre |
Ramona McCandless
The McCandless Clan
6256
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:27:00 -
[2627] - Quote
Jonah Gravenstein wrote:[quote=Organic Lager] Quote:If you want to battle stupid points, 3 is actually going to be closer to the true number of freighter jumps then 35k, unless you honestly believe over 50% of the traffic through Uedama is freighters. Yet it is far more likely that the amount of traffic through Uedama that was freighters and other haulers, during that 24 hour period, was in the region of several hundred, not three.
This is true
"Many have joined the battle, many have survived the tests and trials, but countless have fallen because they weren't the sharpest, the fastest thinking, the most devious, the most ruthless or most intelligent. -áLog in and Compete!"-á- CCP Falcon
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Organic Lager
Devils Diciples League of Infamy
72
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:29:00 -
[2628] - Quote
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:@Organic
I understand it's more fun to nitpick, but I already gave you a very reasonable estimate that confirms Jonah's guess (3 ganks out of around 500-600 freighters) and also happens to fit very well with freighter costs, Red Frog hauling rates and profitability based on gank-avoiding pilot skill.
Why are you still discussing this? Exact data is not necessary: gank probability for a freighter is less than 1% based on easily available figures / observable data.
That's an average, so if you're bad, you'll get ganked more. If you're good, probability is close to zero.
I agree with you and based on the numbers, ganking once again seems to be in a good place, no changes required. 2 reasons I'm still talking
#1 jonah still doesn't seem to get it
#2 we only have 4 pages to go! |
Carmen Electra
602
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:32:00 -
[2629] - Quote
C'mon guys. 100 pages, we can do this! eve is dying |
Jonah Gravenstein
Machiavellian Space Bastards
19598
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:35:00 -
[2630] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:I agree with you and based on the numbers, ganking once again seems to be in a good place, no changes required. 2 reasons I'm still talking
#1 jonah still doesn't seem to get it
#2 we only have 4 pages to go! Oh I get it fine, you're being pedantic over some flaws in the data which have an effect on my conclusions, which I openly admitted anyway.
Grow up.
Nil mortifi sine lucre |
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Gully Alex Foyle
Black Fox Marauders Repeat 0ffenders
1235
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:42:00 -
[2631] - Quote
Organic Lager wrote:Gully Alex Foyle wrote:@Organic
I understand it's more fun to nitpick, but I already gave you a very reasonable estimate that confirms Jonah's guess (3 ganks out of around 500-600 freighters) and also happens to fit very well with freighter costs, Red Frog hauling rates and profitability based on gank-avoiding pilot skill.
Why are you still discussing this? Exact data is not necessary: gank probability for a freighter is less than 1% based on easily available figures / observable data.
That's an average, so if you're bad, you'll get ganked more. If you're good, probability is close to zero. I agree with you and based on the numbers, ganking once again seems to be in a good place, no changes required. 2 reasons I'm still talking #1 jonah still doesn't seem to get it #2 we only have 4 pages to go! In that case, I think it's time to post the best popcorn gif ever.
GÖí Scarlett and thanks to Zimmy Zeta for originally posting that gif in some other thread. |
Kaarous Aldurald
ROC Deep Space The ROC
7858
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 20:43:00 -
[2632] - Quote
I'd like to confirm that one of those freighters that made it safely through Uedama today belonged to me. I typically try to make trips in that time zone, that way the Americans are still at work and the EU guys are likely asleep.
I do have the benefit of having watchlisted the major CODE guys on that character since I know who they all are. "Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."
Clean Up Local 2014.-á |
John E Normus
New Order Logistics CODE.
132
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 21:01:00 -
[2633] - Quote
Congrats to everyone who's taken part in this thread. You actually made the Kills of the Week blog post on minerbumping.
op success! Between Ignorance and Wisdom |
Kaarous Aldurald
ROC Deep Space The ROC
7858
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 21:09:00 -
[2634] - Quote
John E Normus wrote:Congrats to everyone who's taken part in this thread. You actually made the Kills of the Week blog post on minerbumping. op success!
The guy threatening a lawsuit is particularly hilarious. I wonder if he's a paralegal bar bouncer too? "Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."
Clean Up Local 2014.-á |
Christina Project
Deeper Feelings Inc.
292
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 21:11:00 -
[2635] - Quote
Omg almost 100 pages! :O It's funny how she changed her mains portrait,-ábecause all her alts look pretty much like her. Took her a long while to finally realize.-á(: -álol Phantomime.
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Benny Ohu
Chaotic Tranquility
3595
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 21:17:00 -
[2636] - Quote
John E Normus wrote:Congrats to everyone who's taken part in this thread. You actually made the Kills of the Week blog post on minerbumping. op success! the minerbumping.com? |
Ahost Gceo
Probe Patrol Ixtab.
159
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 21:40:00 -
[2637] - Quote
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:John E Normus wrote:Congrats to everyone who's taken part in this thread. You actually made the Kills of the Week blog post on minerbumping. op success! The guy threatening a lawsuit is particularly hilarious. I wonder if he's a paralegal bar bouncer too? Read paraplegic bar bouncer. Need glasses check. I'm a friggin' banana. |
Christopher Mabata
Dominion Tenebrarum Reverberation Project
16
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 23:13:00 -
[2638] - Quote
Noragli wrote:When you let one group of players mercilessly grief another set, you lose players.
It's obvious to anyone who looks at it with a clear mind. If players are not enjoying the game, they quit.
You have this certain group of players who spend all their days in empire space just suicide ganking other players because it's the only thing that gives them pleasure in the game any more. Many of the victims never saw it coming or even imagined it could happen, then suddenly their ship is dead and pod is killed by a group of up to 25 players in cheap destroyers. This "style" of playing the game no doubt costs EVE many subscriptions.
It shouldn't be possible to board a ship in a system where your security status is below the acceptable limit for that system. -10? You can't board a ship in high security space, or you can but concord will be on you instantly, same as when you enter space in a ship after committing a concord sanctionable offense. Simple and obvious fix to a serious problem.
Then just keep an eye on the price of the security status repair npc drops, if it's still too cheap to get back to 0.0 security status then reduce drop rate.
CONCORD is retribution not protection, CCP has said that themselves. If your -10 the faction police are actively hunting you down when you enter high sec, as well as being a legal target to everyone in system. That alone makes chain ganking at -10 challenging, if you read the CODE posts on their blog they frequently mention on agent dies another steps up an finished the job.
There is no logical reason CONCORD would stop you boarding a ship in high sec at -10, they already have listed you as As E.C.H.O. ( Engage Criminal, Hostile, or Outlaw ) and as such you are undocking to quite a bit of risk. Now that risk may be a 10m destroyer or it could be a stupid mistake of undocking your nado and warping to an instant undock and getting caught by FACPOL.
Gankers also have dozens if not hundreds of Active killrights on them, some are up for 0 isk so even if they pay to fix sec status they can still be freely engaged.
Simple solution either dont undock something with marginal ISK loss involved or buy a permit and commit to the CODE ( Most of the ganks you listed are us ) Is it bad if your friend says "that was a Metaphor" and you say "Meta 4? Get Tech II or faction" ?I love the sound of silent explosions in Space.-á |
Ramona McCandless
The McCandless Clan
6265
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 23:21:00 -
[2639] - Quote
Noragli wrote:When you let one group of players mercilessly grief another set, you lose players.
So where did all of EvE's players come from in the first place? "Many have joined the battle, many have survived the tests and trials, but countless have fallen because they weren't the sharpest, the fastest thinking, the most devious, the most ruthless or most intelligent. -áLog in and Compete!"-á- CCP Falcon
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Kaarous Aldurald
ROC Deep Space The ROC
7866
|
Posted - 2014.07.14 23:36:00 -
[2640] - Quote
Ramona McCandless wrote:Noragli wrote:When you let one group of players mercilessly grief another set, you lose players. So where did all of EvE's players come from in the first place?
Aliens. "Verily, I have often laughed at the weaklings who thought themselves good because they had no claws."
Clean Up Local 2014.-á |
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