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Awkward Pi Duolus
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
18
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Posted - 2014.09.12 03:19:09 -
[1] - Quote
Full Disclosure: I have ISK invested in this venture, and am not an unbiased party to this market. Dump hulls, buy up hulls, or self-destruct hulls at your own risk.
Crius saw a flurry of market speculation oriented manufacturing jobs put into play. 2 months in, I thought it would be interesting to see how one of those markets is doing.
Because of the new ME/PE system, the price of all T2 items made from ME -3 prints or better went up. JFs were usually made from -1/-1 prints. This means that when the dust settles, we should expect JFs to sell for about 8B a piece, up from 6B a piece from before patch.
2 months in, prices are in the 6.2-6.4B range for all 4 JFs.
The obvious answer for why we're not at 8B is oversupply from producers like me who made tens if not hundreds of hulls in anticipation of a 30% profit on a billion isk scale. (These opportunities do not come very often ;))
The current state of affairs is shown in these four charts: http://i.imgur.com/VyPaP4F.png
Clearly, the diff JF hulls are behaving markedly differently: -Nomad: These are on the fastest trajectory to reach 8B. Nomads were always the least popular amongst the JFs, so rational speculators kept away from it more than the others, thinking the would sell slower after patch. Prices are going up at a steady clip because demand is outstripping supply. -Anshar: These guys are the workhorse JFs. Their sustained demand is budging prices higher, though the clip is not as steady as the Nomads. Note the peak around 7B 2 weeks into patch time GÇô probably some late money getting into the game and stocking up still cheap. -Ark: Two hull dumps, often to buy orders, arrested the upward trajectory. I wonder what someone is thinking when they dump hulls at 5.8B GÇô ostensibly below pre-patch manufacturing cost. I suspect someone impatient got into the Ark speculation business, and does not have the appetite to see his isk grow. -Rhea: The clear runt of the pack. Prices have been steady at 6B, and thereGÇÖs very little signs of movement till just a few days ago. Neverthess, these seem to be the most oversupplied.
Given the disparity between build price and sell price, I would suspect that JF production is essentially at a standstill. This means that when hull stocks are exhausted, we can expect an overcorrection, with prices shooting up way above 8B. It wonGÇÖt happen for a good few months though.
If you have hundreds of billions sloshing around, there could be plays here. Nomad hulls would probably bring you the quickest return, though if too many of you do it, itGÇÖll become the next Ark. Rhea hulls have the best long, long term promise, since they are still at pre-patch prices, but you will really need to be patient. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3824
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Posted - 2014.09.12 05:37:23 -
[2] - Quote
As it happens, I just implemented JF costing in my invention spreadsheet.
http://i.imgur.com/IKkwJFS.jpg
Sorry for your manipulation attempt.
e: Those numbers reflect using an outpost for your build, but not use of teams or thukker assembly arrays, so there's potentially several percent savings there, they also reflect simply buying the T1 hull rather than building it, so there's another 200m savings. So to spell it out for the particularly dim-witted, the reason JFs aren't going up is because they're already reasonably profitable and so have no reason to do so.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
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Awkward Pi Duolus
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
18
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Posted - 2014.09.12 06:19:39 -
[3] - Quote
Yeah... those numbers don't look right.
Lowest with teams, thukkur, amarr st. etc. I could get to, hypothetically, is 7B. |
Melanelaa
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
3
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Posted - 2014.09.12 11:43:54 -
[4] - Quote
I have to agree, those numbers dont look right. The cheapest I could build for 4.5b. With the coming changes to invention it might get even cheaper |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3768
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Posted - 2014.09.12 12:42:00 -
[5] - Quote
Awkward Pi Duolus wrote:Yeah... those numbers don't look right.
Lowest with teams, thukkur, amarr st. etc. I could get to, hypothetically, is 7B.
[Citation needed] Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3824
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Posted - 2014.09.12 12:42:27 -
[6] - Quote
Awkward Pi Duolus wrote:Yeah... those numbers don't look right.
Lowest with teams, thukkur, amarr st. etc. I could get to, hypothetically, is 7B.
[Citation needed]
Note: citation in the form of a fake spreadsheet may prompt a manual examination of the numbers. Pooping on bad manipulation attempts is my hobby.
Melanelaa wrote:I have to agree, those numbers dont look right. The cheapest I could build for 4.5b. With the coming changes to invention it might get even cheaper
I see about 5b on the low end but I'm sure there are options I'm missing and such, just a quick sloppy check, so it's certainly possible.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
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Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine In Tea We Trust
612
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Posted - 2014.09.12 13:10:20 -
[7] - Quote
According to the latest Dev comments, JF invention chance is going down. |
Melanelaa
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
3
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Posted - 2014.09.12 18:35:18 -
[8] - Quote
There was an uncertainty regarding JF's invention chance with them being t2 iirc, but theres gonna be a +2 ME chance for outcome. |
Aryth
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1633
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Posted - 2014.09.12 21:05:41 -
[9] - Quote
it is almost like someone said JFs were going to be the clear things to make in null.
Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.
Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.
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Ranamar
Valkyries of Night Of Sound Mind
78
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Posted - 2014.09.12 21:39:34 -
[10] - Quote
Just someone who flies, but doesn't build, jump freighters here, but... It looks to me like JF prices may be driven more by demand influenced by relative fuel costs than anything else, at the moment. Nomads are significantly cheaper to jump per cubic meter of freight hauled than the other ones, and the Anshar has a somewhat larger hold in exchange for using the other inexpensive fuel. Those two are going up in price (although Mynnna's chart shows the Anshar as relatively unprofitable right now) while the other two look pretty much flat. |
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Paranoid Loyd
1826
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Posted - 2014.09.12 22:16:00 -
[11] - Quote
Melanelaa wrote:There was an uncertainty regarding JF's invention chance with them being t2 iirc, but theres gonna be a +2 ME chance for outcome.
Did you ever watch DS9? You look like a founder. "PvE in EVE is a trap to turn you into PvP content, don't confuse it for actual gameplay." Lipbite |
Melanelaa
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
3
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Posted - 2014.09.14 01:45:00 -
[12] - Quote
I indeed watched a few episodes, but don't remember much of it. |
Vipre Morte
Team JK
102
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Posted - 2014.09.15 16:50:00 -
[13] - Quote
Paranoid Loyd wrote:Melanelaa wrote:There was an uncertainty regarding JF's invention chance with them being t2 iirc, but theres gonna be a +2 ME chance for outcome. Did you ever watch DS9? You look like a founder.
That dude is straight up Odo. |
Awkward Pi Duolus
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
18
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Posted - 2014.09.15 18:23:05 -
[14] - Quote
Well, looks like the Nomad market is clearing out nicely. Only 4 hulls left in Jita, around 7B. |
ISD Ezwal
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
2549
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Posted - 2014.09.15 19:15:15 -
[15] - Quote
I have removed a rule breaking post and those quoting it.
The Rules: 27. Off-topic posting is prohibited.
Off-topic posting is permitted within reason, as sometimes a single comment may color or lighten the tone of discussion. However, excessive posting of off-topic remarks in an attempt to derail a thread may result in the thread being locked, or a forum warning being issued to the off-topic poster.
ISD Ezwal
Vice Admiral
Community Communication Liaisons (CCLs)
Interstellar Services Department
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Triturus Alpestris
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
5
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Posted - 2014.09.17 15:38:55 -
[16] - Quote
Melanelaa wrote:I have to agree, those numbers dont look right. The cheapest I could build for 4.5b. With the coming changes to invention it might get even cheaper
I dont believe you. |
Trin Javidan
Caymen Labs
50
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Posted - 2014.09.18 13:26:17 -
[17] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Awkward Pi Duolus wrote:Yeah... those numbers don't look right.
Lowest with teams, thukkur, amarr st. etc. I could get to, hypothetically, is 7B. [Citation needed] Note: citation in the form of a fake spreadsheet may prompt a manual examination of the numbers. Pooping on bad manipulation attempts is my hobby.
Sensing alot of agre present... Hows life? Still got none?
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Awkward Pi Duolus
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
18
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Posted - 2014.09.19 22:41:40 -
[18] - Quote
Nomad and Anshar are both kissing 7B.
Buyers probably have sticker shock, as sell volume has plummeted over the last few days, but eventually those who have to buy one.. will.
Rhea and Ark still in a rut. |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
4285
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Posted - 2014.09.20 17:27:29 -
[19] - Quote
Awkward Pi Duolus wrote:Nomad and Anshar are both kissing 7B.
Buyers probably have sticker shock, as sell volume has plummeted over the last few days, but eventually those who have to buy one.. will.
Rhea and Ark still in a rut. Looking right now in Jita, so my take on it:
* Anshar is quite flat and crawling towards 6.4b average. 6.799 | 6.288 * Ark is dropping, and around 6.1b average. 6.116 | 5.900 * Nomad looks little odd, which could be recent manipulation. 6.887 | 6.600 * Rhea is in decline, but also around 6.1b average. 6.298 | 6.00
Looking at them a bit longer term: * Anshar is stable, and has been for a while. * Ark in slight decline but still rather stable. * Nomad climbing, with possible recent manipulated. * Rhea in slight decline, possibly approaching stability.
I was actually quite disappointed when I looked. These markets look rather boring at the moment. |
Awkward Pi Duolus
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
18
|
Posted - 2014.10.28 20:12:43 -
[20] - Quote
Little bit of Phoebe speculation seems to have helped this market:
Anshar: 7.6B buy / 6.7B sell Ark: 6.36B buy / 5.8B sell Nomad: 6.37B buy / 6.1B sell Rhea: 6.77B buy / 6.2B sell
Looks like the anshar got serious short supply.. |
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