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Kendra Coldera
Ripoff Industries
27
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Posted - 2014.10.01 21:04:00 -
[1] - Quote
http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/long-distance-travel-changes-inbound/
Epic changes to jump mechanics inbound. Will the demand for capitals cease? What would a possible replacement be?
Will this be the end of the world? Does it mean that the large entities will have a much harder time holding so much sov and it splits to smaller powers again?
Let your mind run freely, just noticed there was no topic about it yet! |
Xylorn Hasher
Sumiyoshi-Kai
140
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Posted - 2014.10.01 22:29:00 -
[2] - Quote
Well it will take more jumps to travel same distance. More jumps means more fuel used. While fuel supply is limited and mined on sight, conclussion is obvious. All my posts are made shortly after Marihuana-áconsumption. |
Caelis Boirelle
Aurora Investments
72
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Posted - 2014.10.01 22:31:00 -
[3] - Quote
I heard the JF market is pretty hot right now... Aurora Investments is looking for an alliance to call home |
Angeal MacNova
LankTech
213
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Posted - 2014.10.01 22:56:00 -
[4] - Quote
Well, with these changes we can certainly see less jumps taking place. This will reduce the demand for the fuel which will, in turn, reduce the demand for ice. With a drop to the value of ice, we will also see a drop in the value of POS fuel. With PI easy enough to obtain, the isotopes and ozone from ice is the key driving force behind POS fuel prices.
So if you are sitting on ice, sell it now. If you are sitting on extra fuel and can give it up for a few weeks, sell it now. |
Grendell
Technologies Unlimited Superior Eve Engineering
922
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Posted - 2014.10.02 00:21:00 -
[5] - Quote
Personally I bought up some hyperspatial mods and rigs. As with the changes it seems like they will be used more now with caps going gate to gate.
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pinkajoo
7
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Posted - 2014.10.02 08:59:00 -
[6] - Quote
I'm more involved with the mineral/ore markets, one of the most basic materials to trade.
I'm gonna bet on the high end minerals. Nullsec currently enjoys a higher reprocess rate and has extra high ends to spare which increases supply. Once Phoebe hits, i'm thinking of a time of adjustment for high end importers figuring out how to bring their supplies to hisec.
Nullsec need for compressed ores will spike methinks. That or they'll move their operations back to hisec again. Either way, i'm keeping my ores/minerals for now, since expansions usually make the mineral/ore prices increase iirc. Don't compress your hisec ores, you're only helping nullsec wealth. Look at the posting histories of the people who tell you to compress. Reprocess and sell them as minerals for a better hisec. |
Kendra Coldera
Ripoff Industries
27
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Posted - 2014.10.02 10:11:00 -
[7] - Quote
pinkajoo wrote:I'm more involved with the mineral/ore markets, one of the most basic materials to trade.
I'm gonna bet on the high end minerals. Nullsec currently enjoys a higher reprocess rate and has extra high ends to spare which increases supply. Once Phoebe hits, i'm thinking of a time of adjustment for high end importers figuring out how to bring their supplies to hisec.
Nullsec need for compressed ores will spike methinks. That or they'll move their operations back to hisec again. Either way, i'm keeping my ores/minerals for now, since expansions usually make the mineral/ore prices increase iirc.
I don't agree with this. Since JFs are still epic for transporting stuff this will be much less of an issue than you think.
If we see an influence to Minerals it will be because Caps in general become less popular and therefore doctrines shift away to something else. |
pinkajoo
7
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Posted - 2014.10.02 10:40:00 -
[8] - Quote
Kendra Coldera wrote:pinkajoo wrote:I'm more involved with the mineral/ore markets, one of the most basic materials to trade.
I'm gonna bet on the high end minerals. Nullsec currently enjoys a higher reprocess rate and has extra high ends to spare which increases supply. Once Phoebe hits, i'm thinking of a time of adjustment for high end importers figuring out how to bring their supplies to hisec.
Nullsec need for compressed ores will spike methinks. That or they'll move their operations back to hisec again. Either way, i'm keeping my ores/minerals for now, since expansions usually make the mineral/ore prices increase iirc. I don't agree with this. Since JFs are still epic for transporting stuff this will be much less of an issue than you think. If we see an influence to Minerals it will be because Caps in general become less popular and therefore doctrines shift away to something else.
Well the "little group" I really belong to are moving assets to hopefully intercept these shorter jump points. Since geography matters again, one of my friends is really excited on hunting these hisec bound shipments. Don't compress your hisec ores, you're only helping nullsec wealth. Look at the posting histories of the people who tell you to compress. Reprocess and sell them as minerals for a better hisec. |
350125GO
Transcendent Sedition Protean Concept
101
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Posted - 2014.10.02 15:15:00 -
[9] - Quote
If these changes really result in cap ships, or just more ships in general, using gates, then I'd think there'd be money to be made in both T1 and T2 (especially) bubbles. The T2 bubbles are already pretty scarce, and demand for them should rise. You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it. |
Kell Braugh
Hard Knocks Inc.
29
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Posted - 2014.10.02 19:03:00 -
[10] - Quote
350125GO wrote:If these changes really result in cap ships, or just more ships in general, using gates, then I'd think there'd be money to be made in both T1 and T2 (especially) bubbles. The T2 bubbles are already pretty scarce, and demand for them should rise.
Hush child. |
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Jita Deepari
Thrall Nation Brave Collective
2
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Posted - 2014.10.02 21:37:00 -
[11] - Quote
It really depends on how this patch goes.
If jump fatigue is on the pilot alone, I see a huge spike in training implants and a market for training jumping alts, which means an increase in training implants market. This will over all cause a flux in plex markets from major SoV entities buying plex off the market with their sweet sweet renting money.
Math For Jumping Alts
For Archon with JDC 5 and Fuel conservation 4 = 198 days - 22 days (optimized attributes) - (39 days with +5 for Int,Per,Will, Mem cause **** charisma) = 137 day train. (This is the safest market because Archon is OP)
137days / 30 days = 4.5 plex = 5 plex in real life.
Let's optimize this a little more since we have to spend 5 plex, don't need as many implants.
5 plex x 30days/plex = 150 days. 150 days-137 = 13 days. 39 days - 13 days = 26 days....
Which means.... I only need Three +3 implants and one +4 implant.
So end math is
198 - 22 days - 28 days = 148 days.
2 plex covers Skills cost 2 plex covers implants 5 plex covers training the character.
11 plex total.
Make the renters pay for the plex. Sell the jump alt to my buddies in Sov.
GG CCP
Now if the Nerf is applied to both pilot and ship!
The market will spike in capital caches throughout Sov, which means an increase in Battle Ready Pilots + Battle Ready Capital, so a lot more markets will spike.
More capital caches means more isotope caches.....
Logistics on an obscene scale. O.o This will be massive, but easily overcome.
CCP changed nothing except miners will get paid more and industry will have to become stronger throughout Eve, which will give rise to more rich industrialist CEO's.
Overall assessment .... Plex will continue to rise. More renters (essentially slaves, citizens, tax payers, plebs) will be moved into SoV to pay for heavier cost. More of SoV will be forced to be utilized and therefore more stations in SoV will be built. Those coalitions without Renters (Citizens) will crumble under the pressure of larger coalitions. |
Skywalker
WILDSINT S.C.A
72
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Posted - 2014.10.03 14:41:00 -
[12] - Quote
A thought on the 5LY jump range. More jumping spots to take a route might mean more cyno's are bought and placed all over the map. More cyno's might get blowned up, due to more times needed to light cynos.
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Kousaka Otsu Shigure
9
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Posted - 2014.10.03 15:41:00 -
[13] - Quote
Looks like there's a scare on zyd, morph, and mega. Wish i could seriously invest in those.. I only have a few mils =( |
Myriad Blaze
Common Sense Ltd Nulli Secunda
288
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Posted - 2014.10.03 20:20:00 -
[14] - Quote
I would assume that we'll see a slight increase in carrier demand and a slight decrease in demand for topes.
If the changes are implemented as currently announced - and I don't think they are - we'll see some dramatic changes in the use of capital ships. The new meta probably will be carrier roams using gates. The usage of jump drives will largely be limited to escape edgy situations and to get home when you know you will have a break after docking up. It's likely that the Chimera will be much more popular (shield triage) which might lead to a slight increase in demand for Nitrogen. Overall I think we'll see a decrease in demand for topes. Considering that jump distance is limited to 5 ly and considering that jump fatigue will prevent multiple jumps in rapid succession, people likely will be much more picky when to jump and where to.
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Steppa Musana
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
190
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Posted - 2014.10.03 20:59:00 -
[15] - Quote
Angeal MacNova wrote:Well, with these changes we can certainly see less jumps taking place. This will reduce the demand for the fuel which will, in turn, reduce the demand for ice. With a drop to the value of ice, we will also see a drop in the value of POS fuel. With PI easy enough to obtain, the isotopes and ozone from ice is the key driving force behind POS fuel prices.
So if you are sitting on ice, sell it now. If you are sitting on extra fuel and can give it up for a few weeks, sell it now. I agree, but just thought about something else...
Perhaps this will cause the nullsec miners to not ship their ice mats into high-sec for selling, due to decreased profits in doing so. In conjunction with increased prices in shipping POS fuel down, we might see more null miners selling their stocks to null POS owners, without using high-sec as a medium for the trade.
This in turn would cause a decrease in supply in high-sec, but also a decrease in demand. Which would outweigh the other? How would market manipulation play into such a scenario?
I'm definitely selling off my stock though, as you suggested. This is too stressful for me!! |
Ren Oren
Native Freshfood Minmatar Republic
38
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Posted - 2014.10.04 05:04:00 -
[16] - Quote
Surprised no one said this but I see the rise of the Deep Space Transport |
Tinu Moorhsum
Random Events
363
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Posted - 2014.10.04 06:50:00 -
[17] - Quote
Some Nullsec entities are going to have to revisit their doctrines.
There will be a need to replace or augment cap doctrines with some other kind of DPS doctrine.
PL will be nerfed badly. They have used zealot doctrines in the past and being PL I would expect them to dust that off in addition to a tengu doctrine. A lot more of these kinds of ships will be destroyed. Not only PL's but the copy cats as well.
PL and NCDOT don't have alpha doctrines that aren't based around caps. I would watch to see what they come with.
T- |
Jori McKie
Friends Of Harassment The Camel Empire
171
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Posted - 2014.10.04 07:26:00 -
[18] - Quote
Blockade Ships which are bridgeable by a Blops will be the new "JF" for small stuff. I expect to see a clumped pile of Blops at the Jita undock (I hope i'm not wrong and you can bridge out of highsec...). > Blops and Blockade Ships will be in high demand
- T2 stuff will get expansive, especially T2 Ships
- Supercaps will be very painful to build
- Carriers and Dreads won't change that much, because lowsec is right around the corner.
- Nullsec mins will be expansive, Morphite just jumped 1k in price. Check out the 500m units block order at 4.9k ISK. "It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." --áAbrazzar |
ADarwinAward Winner
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2014.10.07 03:35:00 -
[19] - Quote
minerals should decrease due to less demand tbh (less capitals will be built)
... morphite is a special case since it only feeds into t2 and is mostly sourced from null. It is possible it goes up. |
Mr Omniblivion
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
130
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Posted - 2014.10.07 17:13:00 -
[20] - Quote
ADarwinAward Winner wrote:(less capitals will be built)
Are you sure about this? |
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ADarwinAward Winner
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2014.10.07 18:01:00 -
[21] - Quote
Mr Omniblivion wrote:ADarwinAward Winner wrote:(less capitals will be built) Are you sure about this?
no. could be more. The demand for capital ships comes from some combination of pvp and pve. The steady state post patch is going to change. I think it will go down in aggregate as I stated with ratting carrier demand dropping significantly with fewer ratters out in the ends of space, wormhole demand continuing to drop due to reduced reward for the same effort, and fewer supercapitals demanded. That being said I wouldn't find it unreasonable to believe the opposite though ... it's a great patch for true speculation. The only way to prove you know what you're doing is to put your money on it.
super capitals take a huge amount of minerals. We'll see how it shakes out, but right now there is a bit of excess supply in the market from people getting out of their space coffins before they are very difficult to move. Also helping is that unlike most things in eve super capitals have a storage cost so it's harder to speculate on them. |
Lor Tann
Veldspar Mafia
0
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Posted - 2014.10.07 23:59:00 -
[22] - Quote
Any speculation on T2 build materials, specifically raw moon and reactions? Will it sky rocket since it will be incredibly hard to get them from null to empire or will the (hopeful) redistribution of them amongst smaller entities crash the market as everyone and their brother floods the market with via .01 isking? Will we see the use of T2 ships decrease as a result? |
ADarwinAward Winner
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2014.10.08 02:38:00 -
[23] - Quote
Lor Tann wrote:Any speculation on T2 build materials, specifically raw moon and reactions? Will it sky rocket since it will be incredibly hard to get them from null to empire or will the (hopeful) redistribution of them amongst smaller entities crash the market as everyone and their brother floods the market with via .01 isking? Will we see the use of T2 ships decrease as a result?
Again could argue either way. I think up though. While the r64 spice should still flow out of deep null I suspect some less valuable moon minerals might have a conscription of supply. If that's the case and demand for t2 ships and modules stays constant (pretty big if) then r64's should go up due to less available R32 and R16 for alchemy. This would drag up those same alchemy inputs.
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mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3807
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Posted - 2014.10.08 12:42:00 -
[24] - Quote
It's clear from this thread that no one knows **** and all their speculation is more like wild-ass guessing. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Jace Sarice
14717
|
Posted - 2014.10.08 23:38:00 -
[25] - Quote
There are too many changes still lying in wait. T3, more null adjustments, etc. |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
4244
|
Posted - 2014.10.09 17:27:00 -
[26] - Quote
My magic 8-ball says "outlook good" that the Rorqual will become more popular for hauling. |
Karim Rockefeller
Imperial Shipment Amarr Empire
8
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Posted - 2014.10.09 21:48:00 -
[27] - Quote
Tau Cabalander wrote:My magic 8-ball says "outlook good" that the Rorqual will become more popular for hauling.
You may want to invest in a new magic 8-ball Tau.
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Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
410
|
Posted - 2014.10.10 12:18:00 -
[28] - Quote
Xylorn Hasher wrote:Well it will take more jumps to travel same distance. More jumps means more fuel used. While fuel supply is limited and mined on sight, conclussion is obvious.
The obvious conclusion is that people will travel a whole lot less and fuel demand will go down drastically i think :) |
Dream Five
Renegade Pleasure Androids
410
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Posted - 2014.10.10 12:53:00 -
[29] - Quote
mynnna wrote:It's clear from this thread that no one knows **** and all their speculation is more like wild-ass guessing.
Expected and suitable tone for a Goon member. |
Syrias Bizniz
Zebra Corp The Bastion
343
|
Posted - 2014.10.10 14:06:00 -
[30] - Quote
It's kinda obvious, actually.
Certain constellations and regions will see highly increased use in ratting-carriers, as conciousness grows which constellations can get hotdropped and which can't. This will also lead to very interesting homedef-behaviour, where after a certain point of roaming into hostile space you suddenly have to expect to face a flock of capitals because they are pretty damn safe in doing so.
This basically means that the borderlands and invasion points of regions will most likely be in jumprange of cap and subcap staging systems, which allows quick reaction to approaching hostile capital fleets and allows opportunities for invading them, too. This is also the space where the subcap-folks will rat. The hinterlands of such alliances will be relatively calm ratting haven where you will see lot's of uncautios carrier ratters (more than you do know already), so kind of an el-dorado for gangs that use wormholes or blackops tactics. On the other hand, exactly this landscape will allow the spacedwellers to drop the whole god-damn ratting-carrier fleet right on top of you, as YOU will have hard times in bringing in the heavy firepower required to break them.
What we will also most likely see is a lot more use of capitals in lowsec. Right now they're almost exclusively engaging at undocks etc where they can deagress and gtfo if they have to. With Phoebe coming, they can now gtfo at gates, too. Two Carriers, most likely Nidhoggurs, at a gate will be able to skirmish quite well, and if **** hits the fan, 60 seconds is plenty of time to deagress with their potential tanks. What happens then is a refit to warpcorestabs, jumping through, aligning with 1 cycle of mwd, and unless you throw infinity points or have a good chunk of scrams at hand on the other side already, they're gone.
K-Space becomes a little bit more W-Space with Phoebe when you look at Caps.
So much stuff to do.
The only thing i don't get is why people are shedding so many tears... it's actually a huge buff to Capitals. The only 'bad' thing is that super large powerblocs will have a harder time in defending their space as moving their capitals for defence takes a few minutes longer and their heroic leaps into battle are very limited in range now.
I can actually imagining large scaled hit and run tactis on sov-warfare where you assault several frontlines at once in order to pick the RF timers you can get without getting hotdropped.
Guerilla Capitals Online. |
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