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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
5569
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Posted - 2014.11.26 09:06:17 -
[121] - Quote
Xanato Kaso wrote:Vincent Athena wrote:If the PLEX does start to drop, remember to time your buy. You don't want to be buying at 900 if it's going to drop to 850 or 800. how do you tell what its going to drop to though? and if my character needs a plex so i can keep playing. im kinda at the whim of the market
It's fairly easy (but not so simple), just read my Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel
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Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine In Tea We Trust
640
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Posted - 2014.11.26 13:23:45 -
[122] - Quote
We're heading back towards the stars again. |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
436
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Posted - 2014.11.26 13:31:56 -
[123] - Quote
Just as planned?
.
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Eliram Kahoudi
Big Fluffy Bunnies
101
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Posted - 2014.11.26 16:03:07 -
[124] - Quote
good cause i bought back in at 860. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
5569
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Posted - 2014.11.26 17:59:25 -
[125] - Quote
Elizabeth Norn wrote:Just as planned?
Swings happen.
Actually, without swings, markets go in coma mode.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel
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voetius
Quiet Days in Clichy
305
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Posted - 2014.11.26 22:19:16 -
[126] - Quote
My personal opinion is that the iskbotter announcement caused people to start dumping which burst the bubble. It's obvious in retrospect that the price was driven by speculation or it wouldn't be 890 now, though I have to admit that I never realised that so much of the recent plex price was speculation driven.
Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?
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Sabriz Adoudel
Glorious Revolutionary Armed Forces of Highsec CODE.
3763
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Posted - 2014.11.26 22:49:52 -
[127] - Quote
voetius wrote:
Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?
Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation.
I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.
Chaos. Opportunity. Destruction. Excitement... Sabriz Adoudel for CSM 10
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Princess Honneamise
28
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Posted - 2014.11.27 01:16:54 -
[128] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
... as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.
for your info TODAY have started some promo on steam .
1x PLEX = 16,99 Gé¼
( price for new eve subscription - 75% = 4,99Gé¼ )
this round of offers will end on 2 december .
EVE MOONS PROJECT
http://eve-moons.com
The EVE MOONS PROJECT is the most complete and accurate moons database for Eve Online
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Sabriz Adoudel
Glorious Revolutionary Armed Forces of Highsec CODE.
3774
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Posted - 2014.11.27 01:27:29 -
[129] - Quote
Princess Honneamise wrote:Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
... as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.
for your info TODAY have started some promo on steam . 1x PLEX = 16,99 Gé¼ ( price for new eve subscription - 75% = 4,99Gé¼ ) this round of offers will end on 2 december .
I believe the main driving factor for PLEX price decreases is reductions in the cost of 6 and 28 packs. I have no idea how much those packs cost or what they get discounted to.
Chaos. Opportunity. Destruction. Excitement... Sabriz Adoudel for CSM 10
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Terraj Oknatis
Perkone Caldari State
8
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Posted - 2014.11.27 10:40:42 -
[130] - Quote
Delonewolf reports Plex prices took a sharp fall after ISOBOX ban was announced! |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
5571
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Posted - 2014.11.27 19:08:34 -
[131] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:voetius wrote:
Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?
Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation. I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas.
What I do is not exactly "mainstream". It can't be, because if anyone or anything becomes mainstream it means every cat and dog have jumped on the bandwagon, which SHALL crash. Because the recipe for profit is to always be in the NOT mainstream minority, that is the minority that gains.
Finally, I don't and didn't do any fundamental analysis (that's what Mynna and Akita T do, not me). Neither in RL nor in EvE. Actually, living across the ocean did not exactly push me to try predict an American bubble to begin with.
But I can see - if you really want - if I can find my links to a RL finance forum where I talk about how I have convinced my parents selling most of their properties before the big crash happened in my country. Of course it's in that country's language.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel
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Mark Rain
EVE University Ivy League
29
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Posted - 2014.11.27 20:11:23 -
[132] - Quote
Bad Bobby wrote:We're heading back towards the stars again.
You got 6 days of plex sales and the weekend traffic is usually higher.
Bottom isn't set yet. |
Randolph the Conquerer
Dutch East Querious Company Phoebe Freeport Republic
2
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Posted - 2014.11.27 20:27:57 -
[133] - Quote
Well, we know one thing.
For the price of PLEX to continue to rise, the demand for PLEX must increase relative to the supply. This means that either: 1) More people decide to play EVE by PLEXing their accounts. A possible consequence of the increased population resulting from that 'This is EVE' trailer 2) The daily supply somehow shrinks. This basically requires more people to horde PLEX.
Based on this, we can reasonably establish that there is a 'peak' price of PLEX. Unless the popularity of EVE grows significantly, the demand for PLEX will always act as a handicap.
I predict we're nearing this handicap. PLEX is very unlikely to stabilise above 1 billion ISK. |
voetius
Quiet Days in Clichy
305
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Posted - 2014.11.27 23:14:42 -
[134] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Sabriz Adoudel wrote:voetius wrote:
Interesting aside to VV, if the price of a good is driven up by speculation can this be detected by your analysis of fundamentals?
Given how poor mainstream economic theorists were at understanding the US housing bubble when early signs were showing in 2003-4, I do not believe that mainstream economic theories will predict anything useful about PLEX speculation. I am staying right out of this market now. In 60 days time I could see PLEX at 600 million or 1100 million and the determining factor will be the decisions made by individual multi-trillionaires, as well as the promotions CCP decides to run over Christmas. What I do is not exactly "mainstream". It can't be, because if anyone or anything becomes mainstream it means every cat and dog have jumped on the bandwagon, which SHALL crash. Because the recipe for profit is to always be in the NOT mainstream minority, that is the minority that gains. Finally, I don't and didn't do any fundamental analysis (that's what Mynna and Akita T do, not me). Neither in RL nor in EvE. Actually, living across the ocean did not exactly push me to try predict an American bubble to begin with. But I can see - if you really want - if I can find my links to a RL finance forum where I talk about how I have convinced my parents selling most of their properties before the big crash happened in my country. Of course it's in that country's language.
Fair point. I can see what you mean after reading the biography of John Maynard Keynes by Skidelsky, esp. Vol 2. where he makes some interesting points about Keynes's stock picking strategy which was based on contrarianism, for the same reason that you mention mainstream.
No need to look for the links, I was just interested in your point of view. |
Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
155
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Posted - 2014.11.28 10:45:25 -
[135] - Quote
It's dropping faster and lower than I had expected at this point. Curious to see where we will be at come monday.
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Sabriz Adoudel
Glorious Revolutionary Armed Forces of Highsec CODE.
3823
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Posted - 2014.11.30 05:35:13 -
[136] - Quote
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:It's dropping faster and lower than I had expected at this point. Curious to see where we will be at come monday.
Yep, I'm watching this closely.
Chaos. Opportunity. Destruction. Excitement... Sabriz Adoudel for CSM 10
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Meilandra Vanderganken
Aliastra Gallente Federation
156
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Posted - 2014.11.30 17:07:54 -
[137] - Quote
Interesting, prices creeping up again. If this continues the 'big crash' ppl were fearing/hoping for will once again have been nothing more than a correction of the recent spike. We're basically back at the peak of the previous spike (the summer one).
PLEX market, you so boring! |
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine In Tea We Trust
644
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Posted - 2014.11.30 17:14:39 -
[138] - Quote
A lot of players that exited the market during the crash have now bought back in.
The market graph has gone back in time by a few weeks and speculators wallets have inflated. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
5571
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Posted - 2014.12.01 15:59:00 -
[139] - Quote
Meilandra Vanderganken wrote:Interesting, prices creeping up again. If this continues the 'big crash' ppl were fearing/hoping for will once again have been nothing more than a correction of the recent spike. We're basically back at the peak of the previous spike (the summer one).
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Swings happen.
Actually, without swings, markets go in coma mode.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel
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Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
563
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Posted - 2014.12.01 18:54:26 -
[140] - Quote
Shes being very aggressively Pumped in jita now, was tumbling very fast otherwise without this latest attempt.
Don't get caught with the bag newbro's.
iCandy - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!
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Aurelius Valentius
Imperial Academy Amarr Empire
414
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Posted - 2014.12.02 18:41:31 -
[141] - Quote
You are all so silly... EVE MD people, you so silly.
For the logical minded:
PLEX = 30days regardless, and also 1 month of training etc... these are fixed and do not change, eg. they are a hedge like gold per ounce or a barrel or oil, or bacon, but more like gold because they do not degrade with time and all that unlike some commodities.
The amount of ISK you pay to buy or the amount you get when you sell are only real if you do one of them = realized gain or loss, should you sell, if you hold them that is not realized as they will always have a market price that is variable (but history shows they always go up over time with minor dips and levels from a new set price.
When PLEX is high hold them, and only use them as needed, when PLEX is low accumulate more if you can, this is the "way of the PLEX" - zen style.
Price doesn't matter unless you can't afford one and you need on to stay active. This is the point at which most people grumble... but if ISK is coming in, then getting one (or more) isn't really an issue.
What would be the case imho = people saw a natural sell point to liquidate some PLEX into ISK as well as an intervention in PLEX and then perhaps the isboxer thing may have had some impact but I don't think so, because PLEX selling doesn't help you with that announcement, if you have a bunch of accounts and you let them unsub, which is dumb, you could sell them for ISK, then also you could sell the assets for more ISK and simply keep you PLEX as you can use them with your main... I don't see any boxers I know quitting over it, and most of them didn't have a pile of PLEX as they had to box monthly to get enough ISK to get all the PLEX from the market to keep going... so they didn't hold a lot of them they used them as they got them.
The big PLEX holders are the people with 1 or 2 accounts that have 10x or 100x of PLEX in a can somewhere that they don't use more, and as they use them they add a few more always in accumulation mode... they are the ones that help keep the price up, but also they aren't setting the price, the demand is: what the market will allow and pay.
The number of PLEX being brought into existence is the biggest part of the price, if a lot of people put in RM to make new PLEX and then put them on the market the price seems to dip, but only because people who want to accumulate try very hard to push the price down and grab them up - such as the markets eating up any CCP intervention that is putting in PLEX, these are simply temp down-turns because the big ISK wants to pull them all up at the lowest price, and so they do, and then when that happens the price increases over time again as less of them are available.
All you can do in EVE is keep up some king ISK engine where you make enough to balance your PLEX needs with your amount of accounts to your wallet levels - real or in game.
Basically: Productive Activity = Wealth, anything else is just stuff (including PLEX) that someone may give you some of their productivity for, at whatever price is currently seen as a reasonable trade. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
5571
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Posted - 2014.12.03 22:12:41 -
[142] - Quote
Aurelius Valentius wrote: The big PLEX holders are the people with 1 or 2 accounts that have 10x or 100x of PLEX in a can somewhere that they don't use more, and as they use them they add a few more always in accumulation mode... they are the ones that help keep the price up, but also they aren't setting the price, the demand is: what the market will allow and pay.
I think you are understimating what a "big PLEX holder is". Even without really trying the PLEX markets I myself had up to 6 subs and 100x PLEX were nothing exceptional.
There are guys with a dozen+ PLEXed accounts and 500x PLEXes and that's just to warm them up.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel
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Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
451
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Posted - 2014.12.03 22:15:13 -
[143] - Quote
Aurelius Valentius wrote:You are all so silly... EVE MD people, you so silly.
Why are we silly and what's your point?
.
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Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
564
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Posted - 2014.12.03 22:50:38 -
[144] - Quote
Aurelius Valentius wrote: When PLEX is high hold them, and only use them as needed, when PLEX is low accumulate more if you can, this is the "way of the PLEX" - zen style.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
iCandy - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1
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Posted - 2014.12.03 23:45:05 -
[145] - Quote
Plex only has a value as long as CCP declares it is valid tender. The day that Plex is declared unsaleable, or non-market based is the day that all your time and effort is worthless.
Is this likely to happen? No Could it happen? Yes
Before you say that CCP would never do such a thing it would behoove people to look at history. There are numerous examples of priceless items being made worthless with one devblog, including out of game assets. |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
452
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Posted - 2014.12.04 00:42:30 -
[146] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Plex only has a value as long as CCP declares it is valid tender. The day that Plex is declared unsaleable, or non-market based is the day that all your time and effort is worthless.
Is this likely to happen? No Could it happen? Yes
Before you say that CCP would never do such a thing it would behoove people to look at history. There are numerous examples of priceless items being made worthless with one devblog, including out of game assets.
Did any of those other changes remove a major source of income for CCP?
.
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1
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Posted - 2014.12.04 00:50:30 -
[147] - Quote
Elizabeth Norn wrote:Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Plex only has a value as long as CCP declares it is valid tender. The day that Plex is declared unsaleable, or non-market based is the day that all your time and effort is worthless.
Is this likely to happen? No Could it happen? Yes
Before you say that CCP would never do such a thing it would behoove people to look at history. There are numerous examples of priceless items being made worthless with one devblog, including out of game assets. Did any of those other changes remove a major source of income for CCP?
WTS 60 day time card... WTS 90 day time card?
Changes don't always have to remove something, or add something to significantly effect the game or value of assets.
Some would argue the recent ISBoxer changes will significantly hurt their bottom line. Need more examples? |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
452
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Posted - 2014.12.04 00:54:14 -
[148] - Quote
I don't get what you mean by the time card statement and I don't think the recent key broadcasting change will affect their bottom line much.
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Toad The Hitchhiker
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1
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Posted - 2014.12.04 00:58:52 -
[149] - Quote
Elizabeth Norn wrote:I don't get what you mean by the time card statement and I don't think the recent key broadcasting change will affect their bottom line much.
Off topic, but you don't think banning the use of a tool that let one guy use 30 of the same ship to alpha anything in the game is going to effect the number of accounts that guy keeps active?!
The time card thing is important because it is the reason we have PLEX today. They got rid of the 60 and 90 day time cards, which you bought and transferred in the forums in place of that we got 30 day market available in game assets.
What would prevent them from say losing a court case, or some other change in some other country's laws that would force them to take said assets back out of game? Maybe not make plex worthless, but definitely make it hard to sell 500 of them. |
Candy Oshea
Techfree Investment Group
566
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Posted - 2014.12.04 01:26:10 -
[150] - Quote
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote:Elizabeth Norn wrote:I don't get what you mean by the time card statement and I don't think the recent key broadcasting change will affect their bottom line much. Off topic, but you don't think banning the use of a tool that let one guy use 30 of the same ship to alpha anything in the game is going to effect the number of accounts that guy keeps active?!
Toad The Hitchhiker wrote: Some would argue the recent ISBoxer changes will significantly hurt their bottom line. Need more examples?
The guy/multiboxer using isk to pay for his account, has no bearing on the amount of PLEX being generated by the players that buy them for RL money. so how does that affect the bottom line sonny? Will only affect the supply/demand in game. that & a sorebutt from the guy that can't multibox 30 miner accounts in his rented 0.0 space anymore.
iCandy - I have accidently swallowed some Scrabble tiles, my next shit could spell disaster!
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