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RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.05 17:02:51 -
[1] - Quote
MNs were the first major isk earner for me and although its been years since I traded them regularly I keep an eye on the market as a good one to learn from and map with a significant period of data. I sometimes post asking for help understanding what's going on but in five years of MD this is going to be my first speculation suggestion! While I have had moderate success historically while speculating I am far from a master of the art so the following comes with all sorts of caveats, but
BUY NANORIBBONS NOW! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, BUY, BUY, BUY!
For those who don't know, MNs are the main component for T3 ships and subs. They briefly spiked hard on the news that nanoribbon usage would be dramatically increased in the production of 60% of T3 subsystems plus the news of the introduction of T3 destroyers before being manipulated back down to near historic lows. They are currently being aggressively held down to the current price (note the big blocking sell orders plus the small orders giving the illusion of lots of competition for sales) but when that pressure is taken off they will spike and settle at a considerably higher price (exactly where is anyone's guess but I suspect at least 25% above where they are now). The price of all the T3 products has gone up and is holding at the newer prices and it seems inevitable that the raw materials will follow them up (unless I have missed something big).
Full disclosure: I am sitting on a very small pile myself (only 4bil worth) but won't be speculating further as all my cash is tied up in my daily trading.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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Cista2
Phoibe Enterprises
30
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Posted - 2014.12.05 17:32:16 -
[2] - Quote
I lost a lot of money on that **** already hehe, not going to buy more now. But your words are comforting and I will hang on to my remaining stock a little longer |
RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.05 17:45:53 -
[3] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:I lost a lot of money on that **** already hehe, not going to buy more now. But your words are comforting and I will hang on to my remaining stock a little longer
You bought on the initial spike I'm guessing, before the aggressive downwards move began. I'm pretty sure the current price point is where you want to stock up.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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NFain
Quantum Singularities WormHole Occupation and Resource Exploitation
104
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Posted - 2014.12.05 20:03:48 -
[4] - Quote
RAW23 wrote:MNs were the first major isk earner for me and although its been years since I traded them regularly I keep an eye on the market as a good one to learn from and map with a significant period of data. I sometimes post asking for help understanding what's going on but in five years of MD this is going to be my first speculation suggestion! While I have had moderate success historically while speculating I am far from a master of the art so the following comes with all sorts of caveats, but
BUY NANORIBBONS NOW! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, BUY, BUY, BUY!
For those who don't know, MNs are the main component for T3 ships and subs. They briefly spiked hard on the news that nanoribbon usage would be dramatically increased in the production of 60% of T3 subsystems plus the news of the introduction of T3 destroyers before being manipulated back down to near historic lows. They are currently being aggressively held down to the current price (note the big blocking sell orders plus the small orders giving the illusion of lots of competition for sales) but when that pressure is taken off they will spike and settle at a considerably higher price (exactly where is anyone's guess but I suspect at least 25% above where they are now). The price of all the T3 products has gone up and is holding at the newer prices and it seems inevitable that the raw materials will follow them up (unless I have missed something big).
Full disclosure: I am sitting on a very small pile myself (only 4bil worth) but won't be speculating further as all my cash is tied up in my daily trading.
My heart is confused. Raw is reputable, but i learned never to believe anything said on the forums :(. Excluding tech thread couple years back. |
HeXxploiT
Little Red X
68
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Posted - 2014.12.05 20:17:50 -
[5] - Quote
Chart shows very strong support at 3.5. |
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
203
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Posted - 2014.12.05 20:57:02 -
[6] - Quote
the manufacturers likely already have the materials to make these after the initial rush, and i doubt they would be making them in the 1000's, coz its a gimmick ship nothing more, it needs much theorycrafter to make a viable fleet comp, if at all its worth the ISK to use/replace.
what the op trying to do is dump his stock b4 release, after rhea is release there will be more ppl killing/salvaging sleepers increasing the supply of ribbons + 101 systems with sleepers
i wouldnt be buying these at all, there is no go long for an item that is about to have its supply drastically increased
people exaggerate here too, "ive only got 4b" is like a woman saying shes only slept with 4 guys (you have to multiply x4 to get real number)
fact theres a thread here at all proves OP has no clue at all what he is doing, is funny tbh |
Makhpella
Temet Nosce Ex Astra
3
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Posted - 2014.12.05 21:13:54 -
[7] - Quote
you want steal my iskies! |
RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.05 21:52:27 -
[8] - Quote
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:
people exaggerate here too, "ive only got 4b" is like a woman saying shes only slept with 4 guys (you have to multiply x4 to get real number)
fact theres a thread here at all proves OP has no clue at all what he is doing, is funny tbh
Happy to have VV audit that . In any case, given what I can pull a day from daily margin trading, which is what all my isk is tied up in, even if I had 10 times as many a 25% bump would still not be a very big deal for me.
I'm also not exactly known for posting manipulation crap for my own benefit on this forum and I've done my best to flag the limitations of my analysis. I'm more than happy to hear counter-arguments if people think my view is wrong. As I said, I've been following this market for years and always want to learn more about it.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.05 21:59:16 -
[9] - Quote
NFain wrote:RAW23 wrote:MNs were the first major isk earner for me and although its been years since I traded them regularly I keep an eye on the market as a good one to learn from and map with a significant period of data. I sometimes post asking for help understanding what's going on but in five years of MD this is going to be my first speculation suggestion! While I have had moderate success historically while speculating I am far from a master of the art so the following comes with all sorts of caveats, but
BUY NANORIBBONS NOW! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, BUY, BUY, BUY!
For those who don't know, MNs are the main component for T3 ships and subs. They briefly spiked hard on the news that nanoribbon usage would be dramatically increased in the production of 60% of T3 subsystems plus the news of the introduction of T3 destroyers before being manipulated back down to near historic lows. They are currently being aggressively held down to the current price (note the big blocking sell orders plus the small orders giving the illusion of lots of competition for sales) but when that pressure is taken off they will spike and settle at a considerably higher price (exactly where is anyone's guess but I suspect at least 25% above where they are now). The price of all the T3 products has gone up and is holding at the newer prices and it seems inevitable that the raw materials will follow them up (unless I have missed something big).
Full disclosure: I am sitting on a very small pile myself (only 4bil worth) but won't be speculating further as all my cash is tied up in my daily trading. My heart is confused. Raw is reputable, but i learned never to believe anything said on the forums :(. Excluding tech thread couple years back.
Anyone who buys on the basis of my reputation deserves to lose isk, whatever the outcome. But the new big nanoribbon sink from ALL subs now needing the same mats as offensive and defensive subs, plus the effect of T3 destroyers, combined with the pretty obvious downwards manipulation and the near historic low price makes it look like a pretty decent bet to me.
Jerry's point about the new WH systems is not unreasonable but unless those systems draw a very large number of extra people into wormholes I don't see them making a difference. Number of systems is not relevant, only number of wormhole pilots. Also, the new systems will be much harder to farm due to lack of POSes.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
|
Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
204
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Posted - 2014.12.05 23:02:04 -
[10] - Quote
Mobile depot > pos
Re-fit current ratting/mission T3 in space, ratting fit >>> scanning fit. you honestly think people won't be doing that? (assuming u can anchor those there, which i assume you can)
its not an obvious downward manipulation from where im sitting, only a handfull of updated sell orders, and no Goons posting here.
supply will only go up, longer you wait to dump these the more you will lose. |
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RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.05 23:28:32 -
[11] - Quote
Jerry T Pepridge wrote:Mobile depot > pos
Re-fit current ratting/mission T3 in space, ratting fit >>> scanning fit. you honestly think people won't be doing that? (assuming u can anchor those there, which i assume you can)
What it will require, though, is lots of people doing that who wouldn't be living in WH space anyway. And I'm guessing that small operations living out of depos are not going to bring in huge numbers compared to the people running escalations from their home systems. I could be wrong of course.
Quote: its not an obvious downward manipulation from where im sitting, only a handfull of updated sell orders.
The fact that the sells are not being updated is kind of the give-away. The pattern of stacking the sell list with very large numbers of relatively small orders backed by blocking orders at key points is exactly what you see with a downwards manipulation. Generally people do update their sells if they are trying to shift their goods. When they leave them for days and don't compete for the top spot they aren't trying to sell but to discourage people from selling at a higher price. At least, that's what I've seen on the big manipulations I've watched in the past, most notably the big pushes down during the tech boom that were then followed by sweeps up.
Look at those orders around 3,770,000 that haven't been updated for 5 days. Even when the sell price was only 1000 isk less the people who parked those orders were not trying to compete for the top spot to sell. They just set a spread of orders and left them there for days. Building up a large line of that kind of order creates an impression of downwards momentum and encourages people to not wait for a rise but to undercut or sell to buys. You can also tell that the line of orders is being deliberately spread out by the unmoving sell orders for single digit and very low double digit numbers of MNs that are bulking out the list (e.g. two sell orders for 1 unit at 3.758 that were set one minute apart). Under normal conditions that kind of order is incredibly rare but at the moment the list is full of them.
At the same time, the big unmoving stacks of 1000+ (including a 4.5k blocking order at 3.861 and another 4.5k units at 4.149) discourage anyone from trying to lift the market before the manipulator is ready. If you are marketing your goods to sell, that's not how you list them.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
204
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Posted - 2014.12.06 00:16:41 -
[12] - Quote
well good luck with that, if its less than 5% of you NAV who cares |
Sabriz Adoudel
Glorious Revolutionary Armed Forces of Highsec CODE.
3967
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Posted - 2014.12.06 00:32:52 -
[13] - Quote
I suspect supply is too high currently for these to go all that high.
Now, if two or three big wormhole entities get evicted, our if a few capital escalation fleets get slaughtered - I'm in.
Chaos. Opportunity. Destruction. Excitement... Vote #1 Sabriz Adoudel for CSM 10
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Artemis Scat
University of Caille Gallente Federation
17
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Posted - 2014.12.06 00:36:58 -
[14] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:I suspect supply is too high currently for these to go all that high.
Now, if two or three big wormhole entities get evicted, our if a few capital escalation fleets get slaughtered - I'm in.
You were pretty close to that second qualifier yesterday in the Catch Region xD |
Tear Jar
Emolgranlan Code Enforcement Branch
185
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Posted - 2014.12.06 01:58:17 -
[15] - Quote
I trust him. Investing 5b isk in ribbons. |
Majuan Shuo
Silver Guardians
58
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Posted - 2014.12.07 03:43:11 -
[16] - Quote
Seems like a good investment - in for 3b.
"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar
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Amon Calis
J-Space BrotherHood The Natural Order
7
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Posted - 2014.12.07 09:08:31 -
[17] - Quote
Here's a hot tip while your on it. Intercalated fullerene sheets and emergent items also. Buy lots and payout in a week. |
HeXxploiT
Little Red X
68
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Posted - 2014.12.07 20:09:08 -
[18] - Quote
For those who don't know how to read a chart...
Clearly nanoribbens have been manipulated over the past 2 months. Support is at 3.5 and a higher level of support may be reached at 4.2 shortly. If the price drops below 3.4 I would get out as lower levels could be achieved. |
Hannah Flex
408
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Posted - 2014.12.08 12:01:29 -
[19] - Quote
HeXxploiT wrote:For those who don't know how to read a chart...
Clearly nanoribbens have been manipulated over the past 2 months.
What exactly was, is manipulated and how? If its so "clearly" than why do i have problems seeing any "manipulation" at all, all i see is a curve that did follow supply and demand. |
RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.08 12:15:42 -
[20] - Quote
Hannah Flex wrote:HeXxploiT wrote:For those who don't know how to read a chart...
Clearly nanoribbens have been manipulated over the past 2 months. What exactly was, is manipulated and how? If its so "clearly" than why do i have problems seeing any "manipulation" at all, all i see is a curve that did follow supply and demand.
I'm not sure what the chart shows as I don't understand all that voodoo but if you want to see how clear the manipulation is, just look at the orders on the market that are listed but have no interest in selling. The ones I pointed out earlier are largely gone now and the only thing holding the market down is the 2.8k units left of the 4.6k blocking order at 3.85 and then the other 4.5k blocking order at c. 4.2. But if you look at the orders in between them you can see that they are clearly there to 'stack' the market and make it look like lots of people are trying to sell for lower prices by pushing the higher prices off the page of orders that anyone bringing stock to market will see at first glance. There is absolutely no competition among these orders to sell because their purpose is not to get themselves sold but to encourage other people to sell their stuff more cheaply to buy orders to build up a nice stock of cheap goods that can then be sold on the forthcoming rise.
Quote: Full disclosure: I am sitting on a very small pile myself (only 4bil worth) but won't be speculating further as all my cash is tied up in my daily trading.
I had a good weekend's trading (made 5.6bil in one day! new personal best!) so have decided to grab a slightly larger piece of the pie here before the patch brings in the T3 destroyers. Note that I don't think this is the decisive factor in pushing them up but it may trigger a more rapid rise. In the long term we also have three more T3 ships to come, all of a type that will be used and lost much more frequently than T3 cruisers, so that provides further support for the supposition of a long term rise.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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Cista2
Phoibe Enterprises
32
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Posted - 2014.12.08 13:34:35 -
[21] - Quote
RAW23 wrote: But if you look at the orders in between them you can see that they are clearly there to 'stack' the market and make it look like lots of people are trying to sell for lower prices by pushing the higher prices off the page of orders that anyone bringing stock to market will see at first glance. I want my user interface to show that too!
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RAW23
872
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Posted - 2014.12.08 14:33:35 -
[22] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:RAW23 wrote: But if you look at the orders in between them you can see that they are clearly there to 'stack' the market and make it look like lots of people are trying to sell for lower prices by pushing the higher prices off the page of orders that anyone bringing stock to market will see at first glance. I want my user interface to show that too!
Just look at the dates the orders were set
There are loads of small orders, all at the current price point, that haven't been updated for the last ten days or more. It was the same with the long list of orders below the current price that have now been cleared. And you can see it again in the interval between 4.1 and 4.5mil. You can also see that lots of them are clustered - 2 or 3 orders set very close in time together, then a gap of a few hours followed by another cluster.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
|
Tear Jar
Emolgranlan Code Enforcement Branch
194
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Posted - 2014.12.09 17:53:39 -
[23] - Quote
Well patch just hit. How long should I hold onto my billions in nano ribbons? |
RAW23
873
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Posted - 2014.12.09 18:09:52 -
[24] - Quote
Tear Jar wrote:Well patch just hit. How long should I hold onto my billions in nano ribbons?
RAW23 wrote: They are currently being aggressively held down to the current price (note the big blocking sell orders plus the small orders giving the illusion of lots of competition for sales) but when that pressure is taken off they will spike and settle at a considerably higher price (exactly where is anyone's guess but I suspect at least 25% above where they are now).
Until either the downwards manipulation stops or the upward pressure burns through it. No idea which will happen first (you'll note that at no point did I suggest that this was a quick turnaround suggestion or a 'patch day' investment). The upwards pressure has already burnt through a quite considerable stock of the blocking orders but it's anyone's guess as to when the tipping point will be. My own best guess is under a month.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
|
Cista2
Phoibe Enterprises
33
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Posted - 2014.12.09 19:59:19 -
[25] - Quote
RAW23 wrote:And the big blocking stack of 2.8k units, which has now been updated was updated after three of the orders below it, apparently making no attempt to actually get to the top of the list. I do that a lot though, if there are puny orders that should better be neglected. I don't do it to earn 0,02 more isk per unit of course, so if that is the case then it's interesting.
Thanks for the tip about orders clustered in time, that is really helpful *dives into some annoying item price tables that are probably trying to scam me*. |
RAW23
873
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Posted - 2014.12.09 20:25:53 -
[26] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:RAW23 wrote:And the big blocking stack of 2.8k units, which has now been updated was updated after three of the orders below it, apparently making no attempt to actually get to the top of the list. I do that a lot though, if there are puny orders that should better be neglected. I don't do it to earn 0,02 more isk per unit of course, so if that is the case then it's interesting. Thanks for the tip about orders clustered in time, that is really helpful *dives into some annoying item price tables that are probably trying to scam me*.
Sure - often you won't bother updating to get ahead of small orders below you. But when you do update you would almost certainly put yourself on top rather than aiming for the fourth spot if there is only 0.05 isk difference between the two positions.
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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Phoenix Jones
Isogen 5
970
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Posted - 2014.12.09 20:51:00 -
[27] - Quote
The prices are too low atm for nanoribbons and should go up, but it's not because of the tactical destroyers, as those only take 2 ribbons to build.
Gas should be your investment. Until there is a mass of people huffing low end gas, expect the price to rise, a lot.
Nanoribbons below 3 is a good buy if you can find them. Most likely they'll drop again when t3 changes are announced.
In other words, there are better options imo.
Yaay!!!!
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Jerry T Pepridge
Meta Game Analysis and Investment INC.
212
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Posted - 2014.12.09 22:16:20 -
[28] - Quote
Tear Jar wrote:Well patch just hit. How long should I hold onto my billions in nano ribbons?
The bag is just going to get heavier and heavier, now the patch has hit, we are + 100 new WH systems. + Thera (no ratting there tho)
heres a thread with some of the new systems mapped out.
For those that don't know or are hisec players like OP, these nanoribbon drop from the salvage of the NPC wrecks in the WH "sites", like any system there is 100% scannable sites (and sites that you need to probe down, mining/gas,relic, data that have NPC also) that don't need to be probed down. These are the bread and butter of WH profits.
These new systems, will connect to Existing WH owners, Hisec, lowsec, nullsec.
For instance a C6-c3 static, means the owners live in a C6 & do the escalations, but also gives players the option of running the C3 sites from the neighbouring WH. these connections typically last 16-24 hours. these connection holes have mechanics that open > close hole using Mass of ship, its a fine art, but most WH corps can open and close holes, so if nothing in neighbour, they close and connect to new "juicy" system.
so all this info means what?
what you are seeing is panic selling, nothing more. no great mastermind pinning prices down when theres no new buy orders placed (only 1 guy @3.7m likely some idiot reading this about to be dunked) who will almost certainly be holding the same bag you are.
ill take them off your hands for ~500k a piece.
So, Gas will go up, as "aint nobody got time for dat" WH salvage loot will drop across the board.
TL:DR Don't listen to anyone in EVE.
Especially a thread where i beleive OP knew the price would drop, and made this thread to palm off his liability to you people. |
RAW23
874
|
Posted - 2014.12.10 15:08:13 -
[29] - Quote
Jerry T Pepridge wrote: what you are seeing is panic selling, nothing more. no great mastermind pinning prices down when theres no new buy orders placed (only 1 guy @3.7m likely some idiot reading this about to be dunked) who will almost certainly be holding the same bag you are.
I'm sure those 20 orders set between 3.861mil and 3.864mil that haven't been updated for ten days are panic selling. Nothing odd about them, no sirreee
_There are two types of EVE player: _
those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.
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Grey Havens
Middle-Earth
2
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Posted - 2014.12.10 17:20:29 -
[30] - Quote
Jerry T Pepridge wrote: Especially a thread where i beleive OP knew the price would drop, and made this thread to palm off his liability to you people.
QFT
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