Pages: [1] :: one page |
|
Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
21
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 12:37:00 -
[1] - Quote
Because of my tool for reaction chains to calculate investments into the market I have looked for Nanotransistors. An interesting development is showing the market for Nanotransistors. The buy orders are already down to level that some reaction pos owners don't get paid their fuel, but they are selling anyway instead of trying sell orders. They must be very desperate.
I have some bad assumptions only:
- Technetiums moon owners try to overtake the market.
- Because reaction profit is down at on every product or the prices are volatile, POS owners trying to outrun rivals.
I don't have better ideas to explain this phenomenon. Maybe you have a better one? |
Lord Zim
Bat Country Goonswarm Federation
239
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 12:54:00 -
[2] - Quote
How about "some people are dumb" or "some people haven't setup their sell bots properly"? |
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra Gallente Federation
77
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 12:55:00 -
[3] - Quote
Too many lazy reaction tower owners not checking calcs, just running towers and dumping output to the market assuming it makes them ISKies like it always has.
Traders could profit from it, but the market volume is still fairly big even if prices are down, so it would require quite a bankroll to vacuum up the at-loss nanotransistors and work up the sell order price to profitability.
Also there can be a delay of weeks for product to enter to market from the time the fuel and materials were purchased. Many view current POS fuel spike temporary due to fuel block thing and POS runners that work off massive (6month+) fuel stockpiles can still make profit as they are not paying today's market price for POS fuel.
|
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
21
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 13:01:00 -
[4] - Quote
I don't believe it's the stockpiles of fuel prices that is running the competition. The main investment is for technetium and the prices are relativly stable. And I don't trust in the theory that pos owners are dump, because to run a Nanotransistor reaction is demanding more than 1 billion per week. Stockpiles are stupid too, because it's dead capital. |
Lord Zim
Bat Country Goonswarm Federation
242
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 13:25:00 -
[5] - Quote
Almost never attribute to malice, what can be attributed to stupidity.
Just because it's 1b/week, doesn't mean the players working it are necessarily market-smart. |
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra Gallente Federation
78
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 13:39:00 -
[6] - Quote
1b/week is pocket change and once you have run reactions for extended period of time with a large number of towers, it just becomes too much :effort: to double-check things every time you sell. "As long as the corp wallet keeps growing every week, no worries"...
There could also be a glut of of "final loads" by people who took down Gallente towers due to the ice interdiction making Gallente POS fueling very very expensive. If this is the case, once the market chews through these, the price could spike hard (assumption: long term supply dwindled due to people taking reaction towers offline) |
Mantra Achura
Community for Justice BricK sQuAD.
10
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 18:24:00 -
[7] - Quote
Isn't Tech the main price indicator for nanos and fullerides instead of the POS fuel itself? *confused* |
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra Gallente Federation
79
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 20:28:00 -
[8] - Quote
Mantra Achura wrote:Isn't Tech the main price indicator for nanos and fullerides instead of the POS fuel itself? *confused*
Tech price is not moving. The cartel seems to have set the price at 100k, and it stays within it.
So the major variable is the price of POS fuels (as far as the profitability goes)
|
EvilCheez
MisUnderestimated
1
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 22:41:00 -
[9] - Quote
Quote:Tech price is not moving. The cartel seems to have set the price at 100k, and it stays within it.
Maybe then the price of tech is artificially high - the cartel withholds tech to drive up price, but someone in the cartel has figured they can have their cake and eat it too by dumping the tech they withhold as discounted nanotransistors ( still above the natural market price)? |
Mantra Achura
Community for Justice BricK sQuAD.
10
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 23:23:00 -
[10] - Quote
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:Mantra Achura wrote:Isn't Tech the main price indicator for nanos and fullerides instead of the POS fuel itself? *confused* Tech price is not moving. The cartel seems to have set the price at 100k, and it stays within it. So the major variable is the price of POS fuels (as far as the profitability goes)
That's true, but the fuel covers a bit less than 10% of the total price. Even when fuel expense is halfed, the price difference is about 250 ISK . There's a much higher fluctuation in nano prices, but less fluctuation in fuel expenses.
My guess is that the current price is just dropping by simple untercutting of sell orders over time until the next dude buys the market off again. Fulleride illustrates the same behavior btw. |
|
Comdyego
Pator Tech School Minmatar Republic
9
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 23:41:00 -
[11] - Quote
I keep an updated costing for moon manufacturing on my spreadsheet. For costing purposes I buy materials at jita sell (including caldari fuelblocks) and sell at jita buy. Nanotransistor are currently at breakeven using this method. Fermionic Condensates and Ferrogel are quite profitable (+15%) when making them from 2nd level materials (see cost 2 column).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqV1bpYXPCoTdExFSXdoVkU4NUUzYjhlQ3RiNXM3dHc |
Darth Tickles
Northstar Cabal Important Internet Spaceship League
5
|
Posted - 2011.12.07 23:55:00 -
[12] - Quote
lololololol i know why theyre so low, but im not telling
dohohohohohohoho
suckers |
Jarnis McPieksu
Aliastra Gallente Federation
79
|
Posted - 2011.12.08 07:53:00 -
[13] - Quote
EvilCheez wrote:Quote:Tech price is not moving. The cartel seems to have set the price at 100k, and it stays within it. Maybe then the price of tech is artificially high - the cartel withholds tech to drive up price, but someone in the cartel has figured they can have their cake and eat it too by dumping the tech they withhold as discounted nanotransistors ( still above the natural market price)?
Sounds like a reasonable theory. If cartel members have a deal on Tech price at the current price point, but no deal regarding Technetium-derived products, it would obviously be beneficial for an alliance in the scheme to manufacture their own Nanotransistors from Technetium rather than selling the goo. It is more :effort: but it does two things...
- You can sell more Technetium as you are selling both to the small-time reaction POS runners and to the T2 manufacturers (in the form of Nanotransistors) - You are pissing into the cereals of other Technetium cartel members - they will sell less Technetium as it is unprofitable to react anything out of it.
Considering that Goons just pissed into the cereals of all reaction tower runners (well, all using Gallente towers), this would be straight up their alley... and could spark some Fun(tm) if Technetium moon holders in the cartel start getting antsy with their goo not selling like it used to while the price is locked to the agreed-upon level. |
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
21
|
Posted - 2011.12.08 08:12:00 -
[14] - Quote
Comdyego wrote:I keep an updated costing for moon manufacturing on my spreadsheet. For costing purposes I buy materials at jita sell (including caldari fuelblocks) and sell at jita buy. Nanotransistor are currently at breakeven using this method. Fermionic Condensates and Ferrogel are quite profitable (+15%) when making them from 2nd level materials (see cost 2 column). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqV1bpYXPCoTdExFSXdoVkU4NUUzYjhlQ3RiNXM3dHc
For POS owners fermionic condensates causes more costs, because you can't simply buy the products of simple reactions, because you would raise the prices through the sky. That means you have to run extra POS's just for production of simple reactions. |
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
21
|
Posted - 2011.12.08 08:19:00 -
[15] - Quote
EvilCheez wrote:Quote:Tech price is not moving. The cartel seems to have set the price at 100k, and it stays within it. Maybe then the price of tech is artificially high - the cartel withholds tech to drive up price, but someone in the cartel has figured they can have their cake and eat it too by dumping the tech they withhold as discounted nanotransistors ( still above the natural market price)?
This is a very good explanation. So even when the prices for Nanotransistors on the break even point,when the prices are artificial high there is not much room for an investment.
|
Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance United Outworlders
5
|
Posted - 2011.12.10 18:29:00 -
[16] - Quote
This trend actually seems reminiscent of the ferrogel duping exploit. Gallente PoS are very unprofitable to run reactions with currently and the other PoS are also unprofitable and require significantly increased attention. This state of affairs makes no sense. Over supply of unreacted technetium should be depressing Tc prices while under supply of fullerides and nanotransistors should be spiking those prices. |
Nomad I
University of Caille Gallente Federation
22
|
Posted - 2011.12.11 18:54:00 -
[17] - Quote
Ethilia wrote:This trend actually seems reminiscent of the ferrogel duping exploit. Gallente PoS are very unprofitable to run reactions with currently and the other PoS are also unprofitable and require significantly increased attention. This state of affairs makes no sense. Over supply of unreacted technetium should be depressing Tc prices while under supply of fullerides and nanotransistors should be spiking those prices.
No, if there is a cartel it makes to much sense. |
Brock Nelson
87
|
Posted - 2011.12.11 20:09:00 -
[18] - Quote
I stand by my suggestion for you to refine it |
Tayler Durdin
Solar Technologies Inc.
0
|
Posted - 2011.12.11 20:49:00 -
[19] - Quote
ok...
i've been wondering if my math is fubar'd or something, but i show (based on my spreadsheets) that everything is making a profit right now.
now, this is based on buying from jita sell orders, and selling via sell orders.
ex.
nanotransistors -
fuel costs (as off friday dec. 9th) 371m p/large tower p/31days buying everything off market x 3 towers = 1.1b (roughly) moon material costs - $9,356,760,000.00 (agian buying everything off market)
total cost p/month (based on 3 large towers, which you wouldn't use. would more likely use 2L and 1M) =$10,469,760,000.00
now, income would be =$11,208,240,000.00 (based on 2 complex reaction towers outputing 2160000 units a month @ 5189)
total profit = 750m aprox.
what am I doing wrong if everyone else seems to think that they are producing at a loss atm?
|
Alisa Vaun
Angelic Refuge
0
|
Posted - 2011.12.11 22:09:00 -
[20] - Quote
Tayler Durdin wrote:ok... i've been wondering if my math is fubar'd or something ...
have you accounted for taxes on all buy / sell orders? your fuel prices are less than those I used by a wide margin, but pi prices have been dropping fast. are you calculating fuel for faction towers? |
|
|
|
|
Pages: [1] :: one page |
First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |