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Sabriz Adoudel
Black Hydra Consortium.
5380
|
Posted - 2015.10.01 10:49:09 -
[1] - Quote
Been thinking this one over for a while. I've just spent a significant amount buying up PI materials despite them being above historic trend prices. This is an explanation of why I've speculated the way I have, and why I think there's space for PI components to increase 30-40% in the short to medium term (once existing stockpiles are depleted).
Of course it could be a pump and dump too - like any in-game financial advice, carry out due diligence before acting on it.
The underlying cause:
First the starting point is the same as the cause for increased PLEX prices - a disinterested playerbase. Specifically, less people spending RL money on EVE; and consequently, more people allowing alt accounts to lapse.
All resources in EVE are limited by one of three things.
1) Resource nodes available in game (e.g. Dyspro moons, only a set amount is generated each day) 2) Player time investment (e.g. Scordite - supply depends upon how long players and/or bots spend harvesting it) 3) Number of characters harvesting the materials (e.g. PI).
So what's changed with PI mats?
It was possible until quite recently to comfortably PLEX an account with moderate effort by running PI in a wormhole, even assuming you suffered a few losses. PLEX have gone up; PI mats haven't really followed.
As well as that, there's fewer subscribed accounts, but not a notable decrease in the number of really invested players. Because of the changing playerbase, the average player is getting better at generating ISK, at mining, and there's the same amount of resource node limited items as always.
But unlike ratting, or mining, PI doesn't scale well as the players involved in it acquire more SP.
As such, supply of PI mats is actively falling right now. The people with accounts PLEXed by PI are dropping them, and it requires understanding of niche game mechanics for new people to fill the void.
People will fill the void eventually - if Robotics hit 125k/unit (a very ambitious price) then alliance theorycrafters will start telling their line members 'do PI, it will make you lots of ISK'. But right now, why bother when ratting offers more ISK per minute of player attention than PI does?
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Yong Shin
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
32
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Posted - 2015.10.01 20:01:37 -
[2] - Quote
Don't know much about PI, but assuming demand for PI materials is always steady (I wouldn't know), and they are not easily obtained through professions that CAN feasibly PLEX currently themselves(mining etc.), your logic seems flawless and you may quite possibly be rich soon!
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Sabriz Adoudel
Black Hydra Consortium.
5383
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Posted - 2015.10.01 21:56:43 -
[3] - Quote
Yong Shin wrote:Don't know much about PI, but assuming demand for PI materials is always steady (I wouldn't know), and they are not easily obtained through professions that CAN feasibly PLEX currently themselves(mining etc.), your logic seems flawless and you may quite possibly be rich soon!
PI is passive - you set up a planet (takes a few tens of minutes of paying attention to the game) then you need to wait days IRL while it 'recharges', then you send an Iteron to collect it.
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Vibiana
Frontier Trading Company
31
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Posted - 2015.10.02 03:14:04 -
[4] - Quote
that logic is..wow, just wow.
- I have passive income to plex my acc and have some extra isk on top of it. - plex go up a bit, taking a bit of my extra, what should I do? - ???? - drop the activity!
vOv |
Miss Credits
Stationdwellers United
0
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Posted - 2015.10.02 07:14:18 -
[5] - Quote
Vibiana wrote:that logic is..wow, just wow.
- I have passive income to plex my acc and have some extra isk on top of it. - plex go up a bit, taking a bit of my extra, what should I do? - ???? - drop the activity!
vOv
That's not what the OP is speaking of I believe, but rather the decline in active accounts = less PI mats being gathered yet the demand for them remains similar, thus the price increases. Therefore the price goes up. Demand is higher than the produced amount. |
Sabriz Adoudel
Black Hydra Consortium.
5384
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Posted - 2015.10.02 12:17:29 -
[6] - Quote
Miss Credits wrote:Vibiana wrote:that logic is..wow, just wow.
- I have passive income to plex my acc and have some extra isk on top of it. - plex go up a bit, taking a bit of my extra, what should I do? - ???? - drop the activity!
vOv That's not what the OP is speaking of I believe, but rather the decline in active accounts = less PI mats being gathered yet the demand for them remains similar, thus the price increases. Therefore the price goes up. Demand is higher than the produced amount.
This is correct.
More precisely:
- The people that consume PI materials are tech 2 producers. - The people that produce PI mats are quite a mix of players. - Tech 2 producers are generally more invested in the game than the people engaged in PI (on average). - Invested players are unsubbing accounts more slowly than uninvested players.
As for Vibiana's comment - there are people how used to make 1.2b/month=1.5 PLEX (back then) from running PI on three characters in a wormhole. Now, at present PI prices, they make 1.3b/month=1.1 PLEX. Some of them did this on *multiple* accounts. Why bother running 6 accounts through the hassle of PI when you end the month with 6 PLEX to replace the ones you used and 0.6 PLEX over? Whereas when you ended with 9 it was more appealing.
PI:PLEX exchange rates should remain *roughly* equal to those of a year ago. A year ago a PLEX bought 13000 Robotics, now it buys 17500. I see no reason why Robotics should fall in price to 1/17500 PLEX.
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Tiddle Jr
Brutor Tribe Minmatar Republic
539
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Posted - 2015.10.02 13:50:05 -
[7] - Quote
I think you should start killing more iterons who are coming to collect PI stuff. |
0000000000ZERO0000000000
Zero Zentharis
10
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Posted - 2015.10.02 18:14:09 -
[8] - Quote
Good thing I invested in Robotics about 2 weeks ago. Also Citadels (if they have large PI requirement like outposts) will likely exacerbate PI prices. But for now, I would watch fuel blocks. |
Gilbaron
Free-Space-Ranger Northern Coalition.
1820
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Posted - 2015.10.03 05:24:32 -
[9] - Quote
the only important things for PI prices are devblogs related to the citadels coming in spring. |
CaptainMorgan49
Troglodytes of Narnia
7
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Posted - 2015.10.03 12:43:45 -
[10] - Quote
I think it might be a bit more complicated than the OP suggests. The PI demand is for building starbases and running them, many of these starbases are used for large moon mining/reaction operations. When PI prices go up, the profit from running these reaction chains goes down. There is a lag before T2 material prices go up and during this lag, it is likely that at least some people will decide their reaction chain isn't worth it and temporarily dismantle and put it in storage, meaning a drop in PI demand and so a drop in PI price.
Also, I agree with everyone else that details of citadel announcements will have effects so pronounced as to wipe out any other trends in the market as far as PI is concerned. They are going to replace POS and outposts. Under the current mechanics, outposts are invulnerable and there are a middling level of reasons to destroy POS (stealing a moon, killing a super, removing a staging area, etc. but notable not to contest sov), with the new mechanics, the citadels of all sizes will be destructible and there will be a strong motivation to do so (huge isk loss for loser, massive logistics pain for loser, removal, at a stroke, of all the current benefits of both a pos and a station). If I was a gambling man, I'd say PI will take a huge boost when citadels are released and probably another boost when citadels start to be destroyed and maybe yet again when pos and stations are removed.
Finally, plex prices just took a dive, so there is every chance than those un-subbed PI accounts will re-sub. |
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TheSmokingHertog
TALIBAN EXPRESS
329
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Posted - 2015.10.03 13:43:54 -
[11] - Quote
What if the Jump fatigue changes will make more regions in range for Jump Freigthers to supply PI materials to jita?
Won't the circel of systems with a few LY jumps from jita become more interesting for PI production? Since you can get it out much easyer?
"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X
"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron
-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
3461
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Posted - 2015.10.04 03:52:54 -
[12] - Quote
CaptainMorgan49 wrote:
Finally, plex prices just took a dive, so there is every chance than those un-subbed PI accounts will re-sub.
Probably not.
Upgrading Local to Eliminate All AFK Influence
So Local Chat vanished, now what?
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Vibiana
Frontier Trading Company
31
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Posted - 2015.10.04 06:21:59 -
[13] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:CaptainMorgan49 wrote:
Finally, plex prices just took a dive, so there is every chance than those un-subbed PI accounts will re-sub.
Probably not.
wow. how fast peeps seem to unsub and resub in this thread.
most fascinating. keep it up bois
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Tiddle Jr
Brutor Tribe Minmatar Republic
552
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Posted - 2015.10.04 07:58:14 -
[14] - Quote
Vibiana wrote:that logic is..wow, just wow.
- I have passive income to plex my acc and have some extra isk on top of it. - plex go up a bit, taking a bit of my extra, what should I do? - ???? - drop the activity!
vOv
you can't be both passive and active same time |
Vibiana
Frontier Trading Company
31
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Posted - 2015.10.04 11:17:58 -
[15] - Quote
Tiddle Jr wrote:Vibiana wrote:that logic is..wow, just wow.
- I have passive income to plex my acc and have some extra isk on top of it. - plex go up a bit, taking a bit of my extra, what should I do? - ???? - drop the activity!
vOv you can't be both passive and active same time
sure, it takes action to log-in |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
3465
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Posted - 2015.10.04 20:18:39 -
[16] - Quote
Vibiana wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:CaptainMorgan49 wrote:
Finally, plex prices just took a dive, so there is every chance than those un-subbed PI accounts will re-sub.
Probably not. wow. how fast peeps seem to unsub and resub in this thread. most fascinating. keep it up bois
Errr what? I was disputing the claim those accounts would return. I actually do PI, it is fairly easy and decent ISK if a bit boring. But I don't make enough ISK to justify buying a PLEX. Let alone several.
I know, I know there has to be a way to use a single account to make 5 billion ISK/month with PI. cough:cough:bull:cough:sh*t:cough.
Upgrading Local to Eliminate All AFK Influence
So Local Chat vanished, now what?
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
3465
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Posted - 2015.10.04 20:23:26 -
[17] - Quote
CaptainMorgan49 wrote:I think it might be a bit more complicated than the OP suggests. The PI demand is for building starbases and running them, many of these starbases are used for large moon mining/reaction operations. When PI prices go up, the profit from running these reaction chains goes down. There is a lag before T2 material prices go up and during this lag, it is likely that at least some people will decide their reaction chain isn't worth it and temporarily dismantle and put it in storage, meaning a drop in PI demand and so a drop in PI price.
Also, I agree with everyone else that details of citadel announcements will have effects so pronounced as to wipe out any other trends in the market as far as PI is concerned. They are going to replace POS and outposts. Under the current mechanics, outposts are invulnerable and there are a middling level of reasons to destroy POS (stealing a moon, killing a super, removing a staging area, etc. but notable not to contest sov), with the new mechanics, the citadels of all sizes will be destructible and there will be a strong motivation to do so (huge isk loss for loser, massive logistics pain for loser, removal, at a stroke, of all the current benefits of both a pos and a station). If I was a gambling man, I'd say PI will take a huge boost when citadels are released and probably another boost when citadels start to be destroyed and maybe yet again when pos and stations are removed.
Finally, plex prices just took a dive, so there is every chance than those un-subbed PI accounts will re-sub.
That lag is why we need more market speculation, not less.
Not that I expect many people to agree with this...well maybe in this sub-forum.
Upgrading Local to Eliminate All AFK Influence
So Local Chat vanished, now what?
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Mephiztopheleze
Republic University Minmatar Republic
197
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Posted - 2015.10.04 21:28:26 -
[18] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:PI is passive - you set up a planet (takes a few tens of minutes of paying attention to the game) then you need to wait days IRL while it 'recharges', then you send an Iteron to collect it.
An Iteron V? To collect PI materials? Really?
Occasional Resident Newbie Correspondent for TMC: http://themittani.com/search/site/mephiztopheleze
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Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research Create Alliance
699
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Posted - 2015.10.04 21:34:25 -
[19] - Quote
Mephiztopheleze wrote:Sabriz Adoudel wrote:PI is passive - you set up a planet (takes a few tens of minutes of paying attention to the game) then you need to wait days IRL while it 'recharges', then you send an Iteron to collect it. An Iteron V? To collect PI materials? Really?
All of the Gallente industrials were called Iteron x for years.
WTS ME 10 TE 20 BPOs & BPO Packs
WTS Collectible Large Rigged Small/Medium Ships
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Sabriz Adoudel
Black Hydra Consortium.
5386
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Posted - 2015.10.04 23:58:44 -
[20] - Quote
Mephiztopheleze wrote:Sabriz Adoudel wrote:PI is passive - you set up a planet (takes a few tens of minutes of paying attention to the game) then you need to wait days IRL while it 'recharges', then you send an Iteron to collect it. An Iteron V? To collect PI materials? Really?
I just use the term Iteron for any cheap hauler ship.
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
3468
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Posted - 2015.10.05 21:59:04 -
[21] - Quote
Elizabeth Norn wrote:Mephiztopheleze wrote:Sabriz Adoudel wrote:PI is passive - you set up a planet (takes a few tens of minutes of paying attention to the game) then you need to wait days IRL while it 'recharges', then you send an Iteron to collect it. An Iteron V? To collect PI materials? Really? All of the Gallente industrials were called Iteron x for years.
Yep and the Iteron V was the best as it had the biggest cargo hold.
Upgrading Local to Eliminate All AFK Influence
So Local Chat vanished, now what?
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Mare Crisium Industries Test Alliance Please Ignore
59
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Posted - 2015.10.05 23:39:50 -
[22] - Quote
The Gallente industrial line did and still does to some extent look like an exercise in watching a certain object become more rigid and erect... which was appropriate, because as you were able to (as a new player) upgrade to the newer ship, you got more and more excited, and your ship just reflected your mood.
Interested Party (TM)
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Sabriz Adoudel
Black Hydra Consortium.
5390
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Posted - 2015.10.05 23:49:27 -
[23] - Quote
Dethmourne Silvermane wrote:The Gallente industrial line did and still does to some extent look like an exercise in watching a certain object become more rigid and erect... which was appropriate, because as you were able to (as a new player) upgrade to the newer ship, you got more and more excited, and your ship just reflected your mood.
That puts ganking in a whole new light.
Not comfortable with that analogy at all.
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Mare Crisium Industries Test Alliance Please Ignore
60
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Posted - 2015.10.06 14:58:37 -
[24] - Quote
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:Dethmourne Silvermane wrote:The Gallente industrial line did and still does to some extent look like an exercise in watching a certain object become more rigid and erect... which was appropriate, because as you were able to (as a new player) upgrade to the newer ship, you got more and more excited, and your ship just reflected your mood. That puts ganking in a whole new light. Not comfortable with that analogy at all.
Ooo, yeah, gank me until I explode.
Interested Party (TM)
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Samsara Toldya
Academy of Contradictory Behaviour
316
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Posted - 2015.10.06 15:47:34 -
[25] - Quote
It was mentioned in the "Shake my Citadel" devblog that citadels will act as a POCO if the customs office service module is fitted. Yet we don't have any informations on how that will work (multiple citadels per planet possible?).
There will be a new race for planets in highsec as soon as the old POCO will be removed from the game. Depending on how expensive/cheap the citadels will be (POCO doesn't require fuel, an online CO service module in a citadel will require fuel) the import/export taxes might go up, making higher tier PI from highsec factory planets more expensive.
But maybe the POCO functionality for citadels won't come soonGäó... we'll see. |
Tosawa Komarui
Exit-Strategy Exit Strategy..
4
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Posted - 2015.10.09 23:43:01 -
[26] - Quote
the value of p1 quality goods continues to fall, its interesting to hear that the higher tier goods are increasing in value, you would think owners of highsec pocos would be making efforts to build up industry planets near trade hubs and bringing the price down through refining but if there is conflict there that is imo the most likely reason the value is rising. |
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