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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.02.26 21:44:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Ramblin Man on 26/02/2007 21:42:11
With the recent wars going on in 0.0 (I'm assuming that they're the culprit), isotope prices in empire are spiking. Now, this isn't particularly here or there for 0.0 operations -- certainly, they'll be spending more money fueling POS-spammed systems, but they're spending that money for territory, something less accountable than a simple profit.
However, the problem is that empire-based (read: low-sec) heavy industrial POSs also require those isotopes (and liquid ozone). As a result, their accounting is being thrown out of whack and the T2 supply chain disrupted because of events occurring in an entirely different sector of the game (nor one which is particularly connected).
The problem, as I see it, is that Ice Mining simply isn't worth it in terms of ISK/hr. For proof, see Halada's Mining Guide (page 34 and on). Particularly with empire low-ends spiking, there is no valid reason to ice mine when you could be making 2x or more the ISK mining scordite. As a result, no one ice mines. As a result, there's an isotope market almost wholly supplied by a few macroers (or very, very dedicated ice miners).
As a result of that, the market is very vulnerable to disruptions by demand spikes (read: large 0.0 conflicts), ultimately resulting in ludicrous and untenable prices for running a low-sec T2 comp production POS.
- CCP needs to boost ice mining to make it at least as attractive as spamming Omber / Kernite.
* I chose one of the (formerly) higher low-ends because ice mining offers less variety than ore mining, although specialization is still required. As a result, there must be a slight increase in the incentive to encourage people to specialize in a less adaptable discipline.
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Reverend Revelator
Elite Storm Enterprises
Storm Armada
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Posted - 2007.02.26 22:02:00 -
[2]
Errrr.... if isotope prices are rising... then that will make ice mining more profitable... which means more people will... mine ice?
Why would CCP do anything, this will regulate itself pretty much no?
-- Dead People Laugh At The Murder Of Love -- |
TheDisruptor1
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Posted - 2007.02.26 22:13:00 -
[3]
Yea, but so are empire low ends. So everyone who would have ice mined is going to mine scordite.
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Ezra
Gallente
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Posted - 2007.02.26 22:49:00 -
[4]
Until there's no scordite to mine.
There are ice fields with huge chunks in 0.9 where one can mine with zero risk and zero attempt to tank, almost never switching targets.
Scordite, on the other hand, is mined out even in 0.5 systems.
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Ezra Cornell
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Devian 666
KAIZEN BROTHERHOOD
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Posted - 2007.02.26 23:09:00 -
[5]
I don't see how this will affect t2 production. The price of t2 will go up along with all other ships and modules. Current demands on the economy are causing inflation and that's it.
Cool an orange sig |
Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.02.26 23:38:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Ramblin Man on 26/02/2007 23:39:22
 Originally by: Reverend Revelator
Errrr.... if isotope prices are rising... then that will make ice mining more profitable... which means more people will... mine ice?
Why would CCP do anything, this will regulate itself pretty much no?
In short, no.
Quick and dirty math, cribbed from Halada (and a mining spreadsheet).
For reference: Covetor mining empire ores (Scord @ 113 isk/m3, Veld @ 70)
1,100 m3 per T2 Strip w/ T1 crystalx3 Strip Miners = 3,300 m3x20 cycles/hr = 66,000 m3/hrx113 isk/m3 Scordite = 7.458M/hrx70 isk/m3 Veldspar = 4.62M/hr
Or, with ice mining normalized against them:
Exhumer 5, Mackinaw
44 ice units/hr (total, counting both lasers)x300 isotopes/ice block = 13,200 isotopes/hr (empire)7.458M/hr / 3,402 isotopes = 565 isk per isotope (Scord equiv)4.62M/hr / 3,402 isotopes = 350 isk per isotope (Veld equiv)
So yes, using current prices (and assuming pyerite does not go up any farther), isotopes will regulate themselves at somewhere between their current price and 161% of their current price.
(Flubbed the math the first time... to be edited)
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Ta chaina
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Posted - 2007.02.26 23:50:00 -
[7]
I've said it before and Ill say it again we need more kinds of ice, ice that is just like the other roids in empire. One that gives more of one kind of min then the other. Right now there is only the faction ice in a given area of space thats fine but what we need is more kinds of empire ice.
One kind that gives more heavywater one that gives more Isotopes and so on. We dont need a one of a kind ice field where the only ice you mine gives everything and you have no choice but to mine that,
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Danii
CryoTech
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Posted - 2007.02.27 09:16:00 -
[8]
The price of Strontium Clathrates is going through the roof as well. Is it possible to mine that in Empire space?
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Saldun Zexu
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Posted - 2007.02.27 10:05:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Danii
The price of Strontium Clathrates is going through the roof as well. Is it possible to mine that in Empire space?
It's possible but you'll get 1 unit per cycle
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Belloc Slunv
Amarr
CCCP INC
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Posted - 2007.02.27 10:20:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Ta chaina
I've said it before and Ill say it again we need more kinds of ice, ice that is just like the other roids in empire. One that gives more of one kind of min then the other. Right now there is only the faction ice in a given area of space thats fine but what we need is more kinds of empire ice.
One kind that gives more heavywater one that gives more Isotopes and so on. We dont need a one of a kind ice field where the only ice you mine gives everything and you have no choice but to mine that,
There are already different types of ice like that. The only problem is that you have to be in 0.0 to get access to them.
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Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
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Posted - 2007.02.27 10:22:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Saldun Zexu
Originally by: Danii
The price of Strontium Clathrates is going through the roof as well. Is it possible to mine that in Empire space?
It's possible but you'll get 1 unit per cycle
You can find glare crust in low sec, 25 stron, OZ and HW, no isotopes.
-AS |
ViolenTUK
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Posted - 2007.02.27 12:58:00 -
[12]
Not many are interested in mining ice. You dont get a good yield and need a well equiped ship. It is very quick and easy to mine veldspar or scordite. Yes the prices for pos fuel is too high.
www.eve-players.com |
Sarah White
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Posted - 2007.02.27 15:07:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Ramblin Man
Exhumer 5, Mackinaw
(although in truth probably being overgenerous -- a Covetor:Mackinaw comparison isn't exactly far)
44 ice units/hr (total, counting both lasers)x300 isotopes/ice block = 13,200 isotopes/hr (empire)7.458M/hr / 3,402 isotopes = 565 isk per isotope (Scord equiv)4.62M/hr / 3,402 isotopes = 350 isk per isotope (Veld equiv)
I don't really know where you do get those figures. But basicly I get 4 Units of ICE in little bit less then 3 min with the Mackinaw. That is 80 ICE per hour. So that is almost double the profit. So I don't really see the problem you describe, but I might have missed something. |
Pa'ak Hagen
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Posted - 2007.02.27 15:11:00 -
[14]
I dont know about the rest of you, but im trying not cry - just knowing that mineral / ore prices is hurting a T2 producers income makes me want to organize a protest outside CPP's offices......
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Lin Dze
PsyCorp
Curse Alliance
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Posted - 2007.02.27 15:26:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Pa'ak Hagen
I dont know about the rest of you, but im trying not cry - just knowing that mineral / ore prices is hurting a T2 producers income makes me want to organize a protest outside CPP's offices......
The sarcasm is strong in this one!
And I agree.. It's truely horrible!
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Jelanen Farshot
Minmatar
Xila Inferno Production
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Posted - 2007.02.27 16:07:00 -
[16]
After reading this thread all I can think of is Rule #34. I honestly don't see where the problem is....other than I'm not positioned properly to take advantage of the profit potential of this war. Oh well, maybe next time around.
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Pwett
Minmatar
QUANT Corp.
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Posted - 2007.02.27 19:23:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Pwett on 27/02/2007 19:22:34
Maybe I'm the only one seeing it, but I see two arguments in this thread:
a) Isotopes are getting too expensive for non-aligned T2 producers / POS managers / etc.
b) Ice is not worth mining.
Maybe I believe in the free market and that's bad, but shouldn't a) solve b). We're still in a transitionary phase right now after the latest market shift, but if you have the refining skills, then the per/can value of standard ice is:
Glacial Mass $3,534,992.64
hydrogen isotopes 8,250
heavy water 1,375
liquid ozone 688
strontium clathrates 28
and of your best 0.7+ ore:
Scordite $3,242,444.79
tritanium 458,609
pyerite 229,029
Now, the three questions that you need to ask yourself is
a) how fast can I mine - for example, my hulk can fill a can in 11 minutes whereas my mack takes 25
b) how many cans of ore can you expect to find in a belt. - for example, the biggest of big scordite asteroids that I ever found in highsec were a bit less than a full-can of ore (and I had a system to myself). And there were never really all that many asteroids to begin with. It was easy enough to deplete an entire 8 belt system of scordite in a day.
c) Completely ignoring the time it takes to find full belts worth of scordite, or whatever the flavor of the month is, how much longer does it take you to get a full mining setup for X ore (skill training time (refining / reff eff x, ore IV, drone interfacing IV, mining drone V, and isk generation time (+/-600 mil to afford the hulk + 4 MDCM 2's) compared to a mackinaw (Ice harvesting V, Ice processing 1, and +/-100 mil for ship + strips)?
As more empire miners (b) realize that it might actually be more profitable to mine ice than their normal high-sec belts then prices for (a) will stop rising. Supply will increase to meet demand, it just takes time.
P.S. Numbers are from my index. 30-day, I do believe.
_______________
Pwett
CEO and Founder
[QTC]QUANT & [QTC] Industries |
Tramp Oline
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Posted - 2007.02.27 23:13:00 -
[18]
It's usually more profitable to mine ice than normal ore, but most people don't understand that. All the pretty calculations above don't take into account the time wasted moving from rock to rock, belt to belt, and the time wasted when your rock pops.
You may fall asleep mining ice, but it's a consistant income. I will say that it is definately harder to sell the ice materials though.
The one time that I will mine regular ore is if I find an exploration belt. Those rocks are big and fat and are worth the time to mine. Of course you have to caculate the hour or two that it took you to probe the belt into your profit per hour calculations.
Where are the Ice Mining Drone II's????
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Devian 666
KAIZEN BROTHERHOOD
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Posted - 2007.02.27 23:22:00 -
[19]
Your numbers look good and serious miners will have to consider this. One of the things that takes away from ice mining though is the number of miners mining for their own ship construction. Besides that ice mining is slow and tends to drive people to alcoholism. So the transition to ice mining will probably be slow.
Cool an orange sig |
Raskil
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Posted - 2007.02.28 01:50:00 -
[20]
The market will reach equilibrium. As POS warfare continues, the demand for Ice Products will go up. The key is buy orders for the consumers so that the producers (miners) realize that it will be more profitable to mine ice.
At this point, X miners will move to the ice fields to equalize demand. The problem with this is that demand and supply will meet and equalize at such a point where the price is STILL to high to run POS Operations for what you get out of them. For large alliances in a war situation setting up territorial POS and deathstars, this usually is not an issue. But for industrial corps that are keeping track of their bottom line this will spell death.
The problem again is that demand and supply are meeting at the wrong location. I am to many years out of economics to know the answer for how to fix this. Perhaps increasing the yield of the ice, or decreasing the fuel usage of the POS will fix this. Perhaps even volume. I, as a POS operator, would love to stuff 40 days of fuel in my POS. Not quite sure though. EVE needs an on staff Economist.
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ViolenTUK
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Posted - 2007.02.28 02:06:00 -
[21]
I still smile at miners not including the loss of their ships whilst ice mining. I have seen miners boast over a 70 mil yeild after losing 600 mil in ice mining barges in 0.4 space. I would be surprised if anyone here could expect that type of loss whilst mining veldspar in 1.0 space. Very surprised indeed.
www.eve-players.com |
Effei Gloom
Minmatar
Sebiestor tribe
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Posted - 2007.02.28 02:06:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Pwett
Edited by: Pwett on 27/02/2007 19:24:56
Edited by: Pwett on 27/02/2007 19:22:34
Maybe I'm the only one seeing it, but I see two arguments in this thread:
a) Isotopes are getting too expensive for non-aligned T2 producers / POS managers / etc.
b) Ice is not worth mining.
Maybe I believe in the free market and that's bad, but shouldn't a) solve b). We're still in a transitionary phase right now after the latest market shift, but if you have the refining skills, then the per/can value of standard ice is:
Glacial Mass $3,534,992.64
hydrogen isotopes 8,250
heavy water 1,375
liquid ozone 688
strontium clathrates 28
and of your best 0.7+ ore:
Scordite $3,242,444.79
tritanium 458,609
pyerite 229,029
Now, the three questions that you need to ask yourself is
a) how fast can I mine - for example, my hulk can fill a can in 11 minutes whereas my mack takes 25
b) how many cans of ore can you expect to find in a belt. - for example, the biggest of big scordite asteroids that I ever found in highsec were a bit less than a full-can of ore (and I had a system to myself). And there were never really all that many asteroids to begin with. It was easy enough to deplete an entire 8 belt system of scordite in a day.
c) Completely ignoring the time it takes to find full belts worth of scordite, or whatever the flavor of the month is, how much longer does it take you to get a full mining setup for X ore (skill training time (refining / reff eff x, ore IV, drone interfacing IV, mining drone V, and isk generation time (+/-600 mil to afford the hulk + 3 MDCM 2's) compared to a mackinaw (Ice harvesting V, Ice processing 1, and +/-100 mil for ship + strips)?
As more empire miners (b) realize that it might actually be more profitable to mine ice than their normal high-sec belts then prices for (a) will stop rising. Supply will increase to meet demand, it just takes time.
P.S. Numbers are from my index. 30-day, I do believe.
all can see, the market is allready adjusted,
ice is more expensive, because its boring to mine,
fuel supply will adjust itself again if there are spikes, though it takes time
Want to buy skills! |
Vincent Almasy
Gallente
The Underground
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Posted - 2007.02.28 03:22:00 -
[23]
CCP does not need to mess with a aspect of the player market. Think of ice as Noc, there is some in empire but there is alot of deeper space. Once there is a shortage of something the prices spikes like Noc did to more then 500isk a unit I saw at times more people mined for noc as it made the most money.
More money more miners, untill most of it is mined out, i think ice fields germinate once a month or something like that so more people will look for lowsed or 0.0 ice to sell at higher prices.
The price will become soon too high for people to want to buy it and shut down POSs. From so much now extra supply less buyers are in the market making the sellers lower the price to sell more then the next miner. The price will lower to a balance of supply and demand, a few more miners a few less.
[Note]POS war = more demand, meaning shortage. shortage = price spike. Solution more people mine ice make a killing in ISK.
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Praenor
Eve University
Ivy League
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Posted - 2007.02.28 04:31:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Praenor on 28/02/2007 04:27:41
You need to increase the sale prices of your T2 components. If you can't sell and are building up inventory, then you need to slow production and shut down stations.
This is basic economics, and real-world companies deal with these issues constantly.
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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.02.28 05:55:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Sarah White
Originally by: Ramblin Man
Exhumer 5, Mackinaw
(although in truth probably being overgenerous -- a Covetor:Mackinaw comparison isn't exactly far)
44 ice units/hr (total, counting both lasers)x300 isotopes/ice block = 13,200 isotopes/hr (empire)7.458M/hr / 3,402 isotopes = 565 isk per isotope (Scord equiv)4.62M/hr / 3,402 isotopes = 350 isk per isotope (Veld equiv)
I don't really know where you do get those figures. But basicly I get 4 Units of ICE in little bit less then 3 min with the Mackinaw. That is 80 ICE per hour. So that is almost double the profit. So I don't really see the problem you describe, but I might have missed something.
I got those figures from Halada's mining guide and rechecked the math, which works.
500s (Ice Harvester II Duration)
* 1.25 (Mackinaw Duration Penalty)
* 0.75 (Exhumers V = 25% reduction in duration)
* 0.75 (Ice Mining V = 25% reduction in duration)
* 0.95^2 (2x Ice Harvester Upgrades = 2x 5% reduction in duration)
= 317.28s per cycle
= 317.28s per 4 blocks of ice (2 blocks per IH, 2x IH)
3,600s / 317.28s * 4 blocks = 45.386 blocks/hr
... have I missed something?
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Qual
Gallente
Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.02.28 11:24:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Ramblin Man
That's not my issue with this scenario. My issue is that, due to the lack of a robust isotopes / ice mining market -- the direct result of CCP's balancing of ice mining vs. regular mining -- T2 component producers are going to have to reprice every time there's a large conflict over territory.
There's a term for that in economic texts -- menu costs -- which is not a particularly positive thing. It leads to a market which is out of sync with the current state of supply and demand, which leads to incorrect information being communicated to buyers and sellers, which leads to macroscopic market instabilities in a pond as small as EVE's.
In short, CCP is creating a dysfunctional market that's going to stagger around like a zombie with one leg chewed off, for a month, every time someone ****es on someone else's patch of 0.0. I don't consider that to be a particularly good thing.
... rebuttal?
¿
The point is that EVE indeed IS a small pond, and when all of 0.0 goes to war, everything SHOULD be up in the air. Compare it to our world where even, comparatively seen, small events can upset the whole economic balance for years. While that might be inconvinient for the industy, thats how it works. But the smart buisnessman learns how to navigate this market and predict it. THats why in eve, much like the real world, the huge economic players can turn this into a profit for them usually at the cost of the inexperinced small time investor/worker.
Its harsh. Its eve.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.02.28 17:20:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Qual
Originally by: Ramblin Man
That's not my issue with this scenario. My issue is that, due to the lack of a robust isotopes / ice mining market -- the direct result of CCP's balancing of ice mining vs. regular mining -- T2 component producers are going to have to reprice every time there's a large conflict over territory.
There's a term for that in economic texts -- menu costs -- which is not a particularly positive thing. It leads to a market which is out of sync with the current state of supply and demand, which leads to incorrect information being communicated to buyers and sellers, which leads to macroscopic market instabilities in a pond as small as EVE's.
In short, CCP is creating a dysfunctional market that's going to stagger around like a zombie with one leg chewed off, for a month, every time someone ****es on someone else's patch of 0.0. I don't consider that to be a particularly good thing.
... rebuttal?
The point is that EVE indeed IS a small pond, and when all of 0.0 goes to war, everything SHOULD be up in the air. Compare it to our world where even, comparatively seen, small events can upset the whole economic balance for years. While that might be inconvinient for the industy, thats how it works. But the smart buisnessman learns how to navigate this market and predict it. THats why in eve, much like the real world, the huge economic players can turn this into a profit for them usually at the cost of the inexperinced small time investor/worker.
Its harsh. Its eve.
Then decouple the mineral markets from price controls. You should, in theory, be pushing for that to happen, no?
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Pwett
Minmatar
QUANT Corp.
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Posted - 2007.02.28 19:29:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Ramblin Man
3,600s / 317.28s * 4 blocks = 45.386 blocks/hr
... have I missed something?
Mining Foremans
However, in terms of profit over time, you need to consider that the only downtime with mining ice is in your own logistics trains. If you have someone hauling for you, then, theoretically, you can turn on your lasers when the servers power up, and that rock would still be there by the time they go down. There is no moving, or roid scanning, or empty cycles, or any of the hassles we associate with public belts.
Now, on another note, what market controls are we to be decoupling from? If I'm not mistaken, you're asking to have our markets controlled. Isotopes are, in EVE terms, an inexhaustable resource that can be accessed in high-sec.
One other note for people who have never mined ice for profit. It's a Hell of a lot easier to find consistent long-term contract isotope buyers because they know exactly how much fuel their POS is going to consume over time. I used to be in the bulk trit supply and, sure, there were those days where I could move 1-2 billion units of tritanium, but then you could go a week without a sale because the producers sales were low.
Isotopes, on the other hand, are a consistant sale.
_______________
Pwett
CEO and Founder
[QTC]QUANT & [QTC] Industries |
Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.03.01 02:55:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Pwett
Now, on another note, what market controls are we to be decoupling from? If I'm not mistaken, you're asking to have our markets controlled. Isotopes are, in EVE terms, an inexhaustable resource that can be accessed in high-sec.
Trit is de facto price capped. I'm sure Pyerite, Mex, and the rest of the gang have their own caps as well.
I'm saying that
if CCP thinks empire low-ends should have price controlsthen CCP should think that ice 'low-ends' (i.e. isotopes) should have price controls
I think it's unfair to say "Look, the free market takes care of everything!" when you've got infinite amounts of trit pouring out of NPC spigots at 2.5 isk p/u. Remove those controls, let low-ends float during periods of conflict, and then you can come back and tell me "Look, the free market takes care of everything."
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Vincent Almasy
Gallente
The Underground
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Posted - 2007.03.01 04:18:00 -
[30]
I think you are missing one key detail.. CCP does not put a price cap on anything, the players do. It is all supply and demand for these fully accesible resources.
CCP does not need to get it's hands dirty into this because, there is no hack, there is no error, there is no bug. All this shows is a resource that players don't see as very valuable.
-Lets not pick ice but lets say... people stop mining for zydrine or maga, because empire ore now makes more money from a 'shortage' so they leave and mine empire ore and makes lots of money and just use the supply of mega and zydrine that are in the market be not adding to them.
-What happens is with fewer and fewer miners mining it it become now a shortage for mega and zybrine(go figure). Now from your current argument, you would say: "CCP needs to boost low sec ore to make it at least as attractive as spamming Omber / Kernite."
-The error in this though is simple, it's player made and shall be player corrected. From the shortage prices rise and rise from people who have this now 'rare mineral' will sell it only to the highest bidders. People who will not mine will buy it because they need to produce their goods or stop making that good. The price of units using that ore increases aswell.
-All of this new found hype about a money making ore peeks interests and they go and mine it to make millions of ISK. What happens, soon so many mines it, the market levels out or becomes flooded. Either chance ha the same effect, dramatic price drops.
Now seeing the new 'rare mineral' seems to be ice in a few weeks this only shows one thing, more barges are going to be sold, more ice mining lasers will be sold and ice products will rise, moon minerals for T2 production will rise, t2 goods will rise(if the price of POS fule rises enough).
The solution is to let everything set untill ice prices increase so much more miners will mine because per hr ice >= omber and the new price will stay about (omber+plag)/2
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