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Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.06.30 17:48:11 -
[1] - Quote
I have a long history of experience with water trade among other things. But current market behavior is something I don't recall seeing before. Perhaps it has.
On the surface it appears that, rather suddenly, huge amounts of water are being pulled off the regular market, (or perhaps it isn't arriving there in the first place) and being hoarded in low-sec and null-sec. Ok. The impact on the price of water has been dramatic. So, like anyone else I'm curious. It's obviously purposeful, and I have a number of personal theories why this may be happening. One obvious result of all this is that that manufacturing processes requiring water will require price increases.
But rather than blather on with my notions, I'd like to hear what others familiar with this think is behind it. |
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
12471
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Posted - 2016.06.30 18:47:36 -
[2] - Quote
It's hot and everyone is thirsty
Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .
Bumble's Space Log
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Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
894
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Posted - 2016.06.30 20:12:41 -
[3] - Quote
Business always booms in the water trade during war time and I'm sure the occupying forces are still thirsty, even if the war has died down. |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
6238
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Posted - 2016.06.30 20:51:41 -
[4] - Quote
You didn't hear about boosters becoming legal in hisec?
Guess what is used in making boosters. |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.06.30 22:26:57 -
[5] - Quote
Oh, lord. Well, that was collectively lucid. As I previously stated, the cost of certain things will be affected. That's a given. A lot of things require water including some things that may effect fuel production. I'm more concerned with the why than the what. This isn't just some phenom blowing in the breeze. Over half the water currently available in EVE is in low-sec, and null sec. That's not a small thing. I'm looking for purpose. This isn't because some "chimp" is thirsty. Ideas? |
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
122
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Posted - 2016.06.30 22:33:13 -
[6] - Quote
This is a completely original idea I swear....boosters. |
Areen Sassel
126
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Posted - 2016.07.01 00:04:06 -
[7] - Quote
Bumblefck wrote:It's hot and everyone is thirsty
But, old thing, you always look cool. |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.01 00:32:42 -
[8] - Quote
Alexi Stokov wrote:This is a completely original idea I swear....boosters.
Well, ok. Boosters. Fine. So over half the water in EVE is now in null sec.
1. Because someone does not want so many boosters produced in hi-sec?
2. Because someone wants folks to come down to low sec to get the water and get ganked?
3. Because someone wants to sell larger quantities of water to hi-sec at killer prices? Which by the way doesn't seem to be happening. The water quantities are static.
C'mon kids, I feel like I'm water boarding a reluctant prisoner here. Either you have some idea of what's going on or you don't.
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Professor Humbert
Project Fruit House Solyaris Chtonium
29
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Posted - 2016.07.01 01:26:08 -
[9] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:Alexi Stokov wrote:This is a completely original idea I swear....boosters. Well, ok. Boosters. Fine. So over half the water in EVE is now in null sec. 1. Because someone does not want so many boosters produced in hi-sec? 2. Because someone wants folks to come down to low sec to get the water and get ganked? 3. Because someone wants to sell larger quantities of water to hi-sec at killer prices? Which by the way doesn't seem to be happening. The water quantities are static. C'mon kids, I feel like I'm water boarding a reluctant prisoner here. Either you have some idea of what's going on or you don't.
Reactor arrays <- look them up |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.01 02:14:30 -
[10] - Quote
Reactor Arrays. Hell, I've ran a POS for years refining with 2 reactor arrays. I'm still not understanding where water comes in and why it might be hoarded to this excess. Somebody's got to have a reason. |
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Professor Humbert
Project Fruit House Solyaris Chtonium
29
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Posted - 2016.07.01 02:40:27 -
[11] - Quote
And your reaction POS is NOT anchored in a HS because? |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
6238
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Posted - 2016.07.01 06:47:06 -
[12] - Quote
In case it is still not clear ...
Drug reactions cannot be performed in hisec, though oddly the final boosters can be manufactured in hisec without a drug lab (a historic bug that CCP is well aware of, a dev posted as much, so I guess that makes it a feature).
Boosters are likely not seeing significant usage in hisec, rather boosters are likely just being imported for sale now that it is easier.
Hence it really is no surprise to see a movement of water and such into lowsec & nulsec, where drug reaction towers are found. Any materials that was easily available in hisec would have been the first bought and jumped out.
FWIW, I've been advocating FOR YEARS that rookies interested in PI start with water, as it is reasonably plentiful in hisec. However, many consider it boring, and it is easily overlooked when other items are worth more. Many forget to consider extraction rates (quantity over quality). |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.01 16:53:49 -
[13] - Quote
I'll keep trying until I get the sense it's hopeless. The AMOUNT of water currently in low-sec is as far as I can see is historically unprecedented. AND... it's NOT being consumed. IT'S STATIC, and growing. It is also FOR SALE in the region of 300 isk per unit. Considerably below hi-sec market prices. And no one is buying much if at all down there. (wheeze)
Throw me a bone here. |
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
122
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Posted - 2016.07.01 18:18:43 -
[14] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:I'll keep trying until I get the sense it's hopeless. The AMOUNT of water currently in low-sec is as far as I can see is historically unprecedented. AND... it's NOT being consumed. IT'S STATIC, and growing. It is also FOR SALE in the region of 300 isk per unit. Considerably below hi-sec market prices. And no one is buying much if at all down there. (wheeze) Throw me a bone here.
Why don't you just go ask them? |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.01 20:03:09 -
[15] - Quote
Alexi Stokov wrote:Razor Wong wrote:I'll keep trying until I get the sense it's hopeless. The AMOUNT of water currently in low-sec is as far as I can see is historically unprecedented. AND... it's NOT being consumed. IT'S STATIC, and growing. It is also FOR SALE in the region of 300 isk per unit. Considerably below hi-sec market prices. And no one is buying much if at all down there. (wheeze) Throw me a bone here. Why don't you just go ask them?
That might be something "they'd" wish for. But the possession is quite widespread. Beyond the low-sec/null sec pattern, I haven't found a common denominator. But that water down there is on the market in quantity for some 256 isk per unit BELOW current Hi-sec market cost. It would be tempting for some to slide in there with blockade runners, but they may not go home.
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Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.03 21:27:16 -
[16] - Quote
Few people seem so be as curious about market trends as I am. I should look for a trade forum perhaps. My best guess is that the people holding the water are engaged in a simple plan of driving hi-sec market price to some desired threshold. Then they will cash out. Interestingly enough, I'm still able to gather water with generous purchase terms. When the market peaks, I will unload at a profit as well. |
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
122
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Posted - 2016.07.03 21:30:02 -
[17] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:Few people seem so be as curious about market trends as I am. I should look for a trade forum perhaps. My best guess is that the people holding the water are engaged in a simple plan of driving hi-sec market price to some desired threshold. Then they will cash out. Interestingly enough, I'm still able to gather water with generous purchase terms. When the market peaks, I will unload at a profit as well.
What are you using water for? |
Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
12495
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Posted - 2016.07.03 21:39:08 -
[18] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:Few people seem so be as curious about market trends as I am. I should look for a trade forum perhaps.
We are avidly curious about market trends, but the problem is that no one is apparently as interested as you in following and examining the minutiae of this low-value commodity in such detail.
Quote:What are you using water for?
Presumably to make ice cubes as it is rather hot outside.
Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .
Bumble's Space Log
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Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
122
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Posted - 2016.07.03 22:22:03 -
[19] - Quote
Quote:What are you using water for?
Presumably to make ice cubes as it is rather hot outside.[/quote]
This is a possibility as the man with the moo-stauche (spelt to portray how it is being said verbally) is not incorrect. |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.04 16:28:17 -
[20] - Quote
I'm buying and selling water as a bulk trade commodity. I've made more profit trading water in EVE than any other single commodity. When I hear folks say they have no interest in some cheap abundant low-cost commodity, that's a strong indication they've never really explored trade for profit. If you're going to trade anything for profit, the last thing you desire is high value and large mass per unit. Instead, you look for a low-cost readily available commodity with LOW mass per unit that is in constant demand for manufacturing. I'm a small investor in real life and I've learned a few things that apply just as well in the EVE market as anywhere else. Price spread. This is the high-voltage of profit making. Without it, your're pretty much wasting your time. Water has always had some of the best price spread of any commodity in EVE. And there are bulk concentrations of it in predictable areas. All you need is a big hauler, the bigger, the better, but I avoid freighters. Then you buy low and sell high. Water in terms of mass per unit has one of the smallest footprints going. Which means you can stuff a lot into one space. Price spreads in terms of ISK are often as much as 100 per unit from low to high. Sometimes more. If you place commodity orders in the right location and deliver to the right location, that price spread can insure 50 million or more profit per run, if you have a large enough ship. Most people in EVE don't BEGIN to understand how much money can be made with trading stuff no one gives a second thought to. |
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Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
12502
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Posted - 2016.07.04 17:01:46 -
[21] - Quote
Can we persuade you to stop using :rolleyes: and start using paragraphs instead, please?
TYIA
Perfection is a dish best served like wasabi .
Bumble's Space Log
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Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.04 18:48:56 -
[22] - Quote
Bumblefck wrote:Can we persuade you to stop using :rolleyes: and start using paragraphs instead, please?
TYIA
Aww gee, you took comp too, huh? Dandy. Any interest in the content of my previous post? You seem distracted... |
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
896
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Posted - 2016.07.04 20:24:25 -
[23] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:When I hear folks say they have no interest in some cheap abundant low-cost commodity, that's a strong indication they've never really explored trade for profit. If you're going to trade anything for profit, the last thing you desire is high value and large mass per unit. Instead, you look for a low-cost readily available commodity with LOW mass per unit that is in constant demand for manufacturing. I'm a small investor in real life and I've learned a few things that apply just as well in the EVE market as anywhere else. Price spread. This is the high-voltage of profit making. Without it, your're pretty much wasting your time. [...] All you need is a big hauler, the bigger, the better, but I avoid freighters. [...] Most people in EVE don't BEGIN to understand how much money can be made with trading stuff no one gives a second thought to.
We're getting off-topic now, but I have made a fair bit, and I know others have made much more, from trading in limited, rare, or expensive items. In the end, it's all about personal preference because this is just a game and even people who solely trade like myself don't want to turn it into the full-time job it could be.
Do you know how you compare to other people in EVE profit wise? Have a look at https://trade.eve-mogul.com/leaderboards over a couple of days to get an idea (none of the usual high rollers are there today, however). |
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
122
|
Posted - 2016.07.04 21:07:27 -
[24] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:I'm buying and selling water as a bulk trade commodity. I've made more profit trading water in EVE than any other single commodity. When I hear folks say they have no interest in some cheap abundant low-cost commodity, that's a strong indication they've never really explored trade for profit. If you're going to trade anything for profit, the last thing you desire is high value and large mass per unit. Instead, you look for a low-cost readily available commodity with LOW mass per unit that is in constant demand for manufacturing. I'm a small investor in real life and I've learned a few things that apply just as well in the EVE market as anywhere else. Price spread. This is the high-voltage of profit making. Without it, your're pretty much wasting your time. Water has always had some of the best price spread of any commodity in EVE. And there are bulk concentrations of it in predictable areas. All you need is a big hauler, the bigger, the better, but I avoid freighters. Then you buy low and sell high. Water in terms of mass per unit has one of the smallest footprints going. Which means you can stuff a lot into one space. Price spreads in terms of ISK are often as much as 100 per unit from low to high. Sometimes more. If you place commodity orders in the right location and deliver to the right location, that price spread can insure 50 million or more profit per run, if you have a large enough ship. Most people in EVE don't BEGIN to understand how much money can be made with trading stuff no one gives a second thought to.
How much isk are you putting down to make the 50 million isk? How long is the round trip taking you to do it? |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
24
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Posted - 2016.07.04 21:52:54 -
[25] - Quote
I have available capital in the area of 2.5 bill. Water orders are typically placed in orders of 200,000 units or more. You need to spend money to make money.
Now that I've answered the question about what I do with water, does any one yet have an idea why water is being hoarded in such volumes and not being consumed? I suppose it could be just simply to drive up market prices. But at some point folks will be tempted to grab to grab the money and run. At these prices, I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
5716
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Posted - 2016.07.06 01:01:26 -
[26] - Quote
Back at the time I traded Megacyte or similar, it's small volume and some value.
Then PLEX. They are awesome when you stack a nice, expanded and untanked T1 hauler full of them and go through certain gates
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel
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Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
25
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Posted - 2016.07.06 01:17:51 -
[27] - Quote
My answer came either early today or late yesterday. The market made a sharp adjustment and I got out before I took a bath. If I had just sold a day earlier. That was one of the most focused price drives I've ever seen. If it happens again anytime soon, I've now got a pretty good idea where the break point is. |
Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
122
|
Posted - 2016.07.06 01:39:31 -
[28] - Quote
Razor Wong wrote:My answer came either early today or late yesterday. The market made a sharp adjustment and I got out before I took a bath. If I had just sold a day earlier. That was one of the most focused price drives I've ever seen. If it happens again anytime soon, I've now got a pretty good idea where the break point is.
So then what's the reason? |
Razor Wong
Oceanic Trade and Transport
25
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Posted - 2016.07.06 16:53:06 -
[29] - Quote
Well, it was simpler than I thought. One or more groups with a lot of purchasing power made a successful attempt to control the market for awhile. They pulled in roughly half the water in EVE and sat on it. The market still needed water in quantity so prices understandably rose. Profit seems to be the only motive. But what surprised me was the length of time it took them to wait before grabbing the money. THAT takes discipline and a sense of control. That's why I began suspecting another motive. I guess sometimes the obvious answers are solid. |
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