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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 06:48:21 -
[301] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:
However it does not make it a fact or alter its use in areas outside the study. That is literally all I have been saying. That and I think they should ask Statistics Iceland to help them. the better their statistics the better the game will become and the longer it will live.
Do you...by any chance work for a government statistical agency...and thus think only good statistical work is done in such agencies? There is alot of complicated math underlying the various in-game effects. For example, when I first started playing I was training Gallente and thought I'd give electronic warfare a try so I looked at sensor damps. I was trying to figure out how they worked and it wasn't making much sense. I knew about stacking penalties, but could get anything solid on how such penalties worked. So I went to the University of Google...and found an interesting pdf. Some guy had gotten some sensor damping ships and ran a bunch of tests collected the data and ended up reverse engineering the underlying math. The analysis was pretty damned impressive. What was also impressive was the complicated math that was used to come up with stacking penalties. So I'm pretty sure many of those guys at CCP are, generally speaking, pretty math literate, and being that statistics is a sub field of math....pretty sure that they can figure out how to do statistics if they need too. Actually a lot of great statistical work is done by private companies and especially universities.
The problem as I am sure you are aware with statistics, the correlation and causation effects on a study and their inclusion, exclusion and modelling. So while it is a sub branch of mathematics, it is rather specialised, much the same as economics is. |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5418
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Posted - 2016.10.21 07:01:02 -
[302] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote: Actually a lot of great statistical work is done by private companies and especially universities.
The problem as I am sure you are aware with statistics, the correlation and causation effects on a study and their inclusion, exclusion and modelling. So while it is a sub branch of mathematics, it is rather specialised, much the same as economics is.
Yes, I am very aware of the issue with causation, but there was no claims of causation by CCP. They merely reported the statstical findings and noted that they were surprised by a number of findings and that one cannot rely too much on their preconceived notions. In the presentation CCP Rise did some informal polling of the audience and I'm guessing many in the audience were surprised by the findings too.
Was it a definitive analysis of ganking? No. But it is pretty much the only analysis of ganking I'm aware of, and it points to the direction of ganking not being a problem for players less than 15 days old.
Again, if your initial belief is that ganking is bad, this should move you away from that view at least to some degree. In fact, if your initial view is "Ganking is Bad" then this result, if true, should do more to move your posterior beliefs because it would be "more surprising" to you than to someone who felt "Ganking is Not Bad".
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 07:13:04 -
[303] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Actually a lot of great statistical work is done by private companies and especially universities.
The problem as I am sure you are aware with statistics, the correlation and causation effects on a study and their inclusion, exclusion and modelling. So while it is a sub branch of mathematics, it is rather specialised, much the same as economics is.
Yes, I am very aware of the issue with causation, but there was no claims of causation by CCP. They merely reported the statstical findings and noted that they were surprised by a number of findings and that one cannot rely too much on their preconceived notions. In the presentation CCP Rise did some informal polling of the audience and I'm guessing many in the audience were surprised by the findings too. Was it a definitive analysis of ganking? No. But it is pretty much the only analysis of ganking I'm aware of, and it points to the direction of ganking not being a problem for players less than 15 days old. Again, if your initial belief is that ganking is bad, this should move you away from that view at least to some degree. In fact, if your initial view is "Ganking is Bad" then this result, if true, should do more to move your posterior beliefs because it would be "more surprising" to you than to someone who felt "Ganking is Not Bad". Yes it was surprising and yes my view of ganking in the first 15 days has changed. I am still in the maybe ganking is good within the first 15 days, not going to definitely yes. Primarily due to the unknown nature of the study.
The main thing I think it made me realise is that yes if I am right or dead wrong they really need to do a proper study on Hi-Sec ganking and go from there, given that CCP has wet its toes on statistics, I do hope they do more and ignore the CSM a lot more (even though after last year hat would be hard) except where they are screaming at them (Historically the time when CCP seems to ignore them) and ignore the forums more, except the dev blog feed back as I am sure you are aware of the statistical lag that normally occurs.
I do stand by the fact that that less than 1% statistic was complete rubbish and frankly would hope that CCP learn to publish the methodology behind their studies so they can be examined. Not so much the raw data, just the methodology, it would also be a useful exersise for them. |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
18155
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Posted - 2016.10.21 07:22:14 -
[304] - Quote
Three pages of stats chat that boil down to " since CCP came up with an answer I disagree with, they must have done their sums wrong"
"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."
Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 07:26:55 -
[305] - Quote
Malcanis wrote:Three pages of stats chat that boil down to " since CCP came up with an answer I disagree with, they must have done their sums wrong" Not at all.
Actually it boils down to, they may have done something wrong in regards to their study but should run with it anyway after all players 15 days or less might learn to tank a ship if they get ganked early.
The 1% statistic is so unresolved it is complete rubbish
And the initial study of 15 days or less cannot be used to extrapolate the effects of ganking on players after that initial 15 days.
Edit: Oh and some people on these forums seem to believe that CCP is their God and CCPs words are gospel. So lets hope they never get near the Star Citizen followers that believe the same about Chris Roberts or we are going to see another holy war. |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 08:28:04 -
[306] - Quote
So there I was passing through Uedama in my crane passing a bumping macherial. I see a guy in a freighter in Sivala so I thought, I'll be nice I'll warn him. So I convo him and the message comes back, I have been added to his blocked list.
See, you guys complaining about freighter ganking...you damn well deserve it. Every last bit of it.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 08:50:22 -
[307] - Quote
deleted |
baltec1
Bat Country Pandemic Legion
18342
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Posted - 2016.10.21 09:54:04 -
[308] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector.
They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. |
Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:04:53 -
[309] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector. They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing"
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baltec1
Bat Country Pandemic Legion
18342
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:15:15 -
[310] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector. They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing"
So people with degrees in mathematical subjects cant so statistics? Is that what you are saying? |
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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:23:50 -
[311] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector. They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing" So people with degrees in mathematical subjects cant so statistics? Is that what you are saying? I had a nice discussion with Teckos Pech, why don't you toddle off and read that. |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:26:05 -
[312] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:deleted
Hahahaha....
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:26:51 -
[313] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector. They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing"
Maybe you can not be a deick?
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:28:22 -
[314] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector. They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing" So people with degrees in mathematical subjects cant so statistics? Is that what you are saying? I had a nice discussion with Teckos Pech, why don't you toddle off and read that.
Where I work, the one guy who usually gets my more...mathematically esoteric comments is the guy with the computer science degree. I say something, and he's is nodding while the engineers are sitting there going "Wut?"
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
|
Posted - 2016.10.21 10:29:14 -
[315] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote: Wrong. Wrong and Wrong.
I have stated that CCP have no background in statistical analysis and he findings are not verifiable.
Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector. They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are. You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing" Maybe you can not be a deick? Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind. |
baltec1
Bat Country Pandemic Legion
18344
|
Posted - 2016.10.21 10:35:23 -
[316] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:I had a nice discussion with Teckos Pech, why don't you toddle off and read that.
How about you answer the question. |
Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:36:08 -
[317] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:baltec1 wrote: Its a building full of people with degrees in mathematical subjects, a huge number of them have done degrees that involve physics, they even have people who used to work in the banking sector.
They are a hell of a lot more qualified to run statistics than you are.
You forgot to add "All praise CCP, the great and all knowing" So people with degrees in mathematical subjects cant so statistics? Is that what you are saying? I had a nice discussion with Teckos Pech, why don't you toddle off and read that. Where I work, the one guy who usually gets my more...mathematically esoteric comments is the guy with the computer science degree. I say something, and he's is nodding while the engineers are sitting there going "Wut?" Where I work, if we find a smart IT guy, they get snapped up and cross trained, hell if kitchen staff have a good IQ we go after them as well.
Intelligence is not linked to occupation. Unfortunately. A guy I work with completed his Bachelor of science 10 years ago and could not find a job. He ended up doing menial tasks till he entered on a low entry level position. Literally one of the smartest people I have ever met. |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:37:11 -
[318] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:
Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind.
How about this....guys with CS degrees are also pretty good at math. Hell, the CS guy where I work is not only good at math he is good at economics. I mean shockingly good for a non-econ guy.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:41:39 -
[319] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:
Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind.
How about this....guys with CS degrees are also pretty good at math. Hell, the CS guy where I work is not only good at math he is good at economics. I mean shockingly good for a non-econ guy. Lets say a high propensity for maths.
I have several friends who are CS lecturers at universities, One of them is brilliant at maths, most are pretty good and there is one I would not want to calculate the cost of a take out order. |
Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 10:53:40 -
[320] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:
Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind.
How about this....guys with CS degrees are also pretty good at math. Hell, the CS guy where I work is not only good at math he is good at economics. I mean shockingly good for a non-econ guy. Lets say a high propensity for maths. I have several friends who are CS lecturers at universities, One of them is brilliant at maths, most are pretty good and there is one I would not want to calculate the cost of a take out order.
Can we then also extrapolate that the people at CCP are not idiots? This does not preclude that CCP does dumb things, but the individuals are not dumb....maybe?
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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baltec1
Bat Country Pandemic Legion
18345
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:02:45 -
[321] - Quote
Mark Marconi wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:
Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind.
How about this....guys with CS degrees are also pretty good at math. Hell, the CS guy where I work is not only good at math he is good at economics. I mean shockingly good for a non-econ guy. Lets say a high propensity for maths. I have several friends who are CS lecturers at universities, One of them is brilliant at maths, most are pretty good and there is one I would not want to calculate the cost of a take out order.
So you are saying everyone in the CCP building, most of them having high level mathmatical degrees are no good at maths, to the point that they cant even do simple statistics? |
Mark Marconi
Ministry of War Amarr Empire
42
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:02:57 -
[322] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:
Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind.
How about this....guys with CS degrees are also pretty good at math. Hell, the CS guy where I work is not only good at math he is good at economics. I mean shockingly good for a non-econ guy. Lets say a high propensity for maths. I have several friends who are CS lecturers at universities, One of them is brilliant at maths, most are pretty good and there is one I would not want to calculate the cost of a take out order. Can we then also extrapolate that the people at CCP are not idiots? This does not preclude that CCP does dumb things, but the individuals are not dumb....maybe? I think you broadened that a bit much, lets say are probable to be good at mathematics.
So I think I know where you are going. In so much that they might have done the less than 15 day statistical analysis correctly.
Actually didn't we cover this ground?
Anyway yes it is plausible though unverifiable that they completed that analysis correctly covering all the usual traps and pit falls. However as we are unable to verify this the statistics must be taken with skepticism and not as fact.
Sorry if I went down a different path. |
pajedas
Special Activities Division
322
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:14:50 -
[323] - Quote
Message Received.
Cancelled Account 01
It's funny that I got THIS when I went to log and to go to my next account for cancellation.
Guess I'll have to finish later today.
Cheers!
G¡É I was right, trolls are afraid to leave the safety of moderation! G¡É
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Chopper Rollins
Brutor Tribe Minmatar Republic
1629
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:16:31 -
[324] - Quote
This thread turned to dildos a while ago. :(
Goggles. Making me look good. Making you look good.
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Black Pedro
Yammerschooner
2858
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:26:30 -
[325] - Quote
pajedas wrote:Message Received. Cancelled Account 01It's funny that I got THIS when I went to log and to go to my next account for cancellation. Guess I'll have to finish later today. Cheers! I am confused. Didn't you say less than 24 hours ago your subscription was going to outlast everyone else?
Between people saying they are going to quit yet never leaving (or who come back a few months later), and people who say they are never going to quit but then do rage quit, I don't know what's what. And it probably will become even more confusing once alpha clones can post on these forums. I think we should have a policy about keep 'Quitting Eve' posts off these forums... oh wait we do!
Come on ISDs, put this thread out of its misery.
The 8 Golden Rules of Eve
Why Do They Gank?
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Kaivarian Coste
Maut Merchant Navy
89
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:27:07 -
[326] - Quote
Ima Wreckyou wrote: Or mine ice in lowsec where you can actually shoot your competition with a reasonable amount of fire power without losing more assets than the gankee.
^ This. If you're mining ice, train up for an Endurance. It's a cheap ship. A fully-fitted Endurance will cost about 25m isk. You can make approx 30m isk/hr mining Glare Crust in low sec. Much better than the 15m you'd make in high sec. And low sec competition is nil. You'll face the occasional pirate, but as long as you're only losing 1 ship every 2 hours, you're making more ISK than in high sec. |
March rabbit
Mosquito Squadron The-Culture
1933
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:35:34 -
[327] - Quote
LoL.... People still discussing these 3 slides where CCP told on Fanfest 'we studied something (and we don't tell you what exactly we did and how) and we got to conclusion which all of you drunk nerds will love: ganking is cool' ?
I love GD
The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 11:58:44 -
[328] - Quote
pajedas wrote:Message Received. Cancelled Account 01It's funny that I got THIS when I went to log and to go to my next account for cancellation. Guess I'll have to finish later today. Cheers!
Can you just unsub please. We'll all be better off for it.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Teckos Pech
The Executives Executive Outcomes
5419
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Posted - 2016.10.21 12:00:40 -
[329] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:Mark Marconi wrote:
Well I could but given the last 3 pages and the fact he did not bother to read them. I must admit I was not in the kindest frames of mind.
How about this....guys with CS degrees are also pretty good at math. Hell, the CS guy where I work is not only good at math he is good at economics. I mean shockingly good for a non-econ guy. Lets say a high propensity for maths. I have several friends who are CS lecturers at universities, One of them is brilliant at maths, most are pretty good and there is one I would not want to calculate the cost of a take out order. So you are saying everyone in the CCP building, most of them having high level mathmatical degrees are no good at maths, to the point that they cant even do simple statistics?
Yup. They be dumbies.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
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Anne Dieu-le-veut
Natl Assn for the Advancement of Criminal People
309
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Posted - 2016.10.21 12:42:42 -
[330] - Quote
pajedas wrote:
Fact: I stared this game way before you and will be here long after you've gone.
pajedas wrote:Message Received. Cancelled Account 01It's funny that I got THIS when I went to log and to go to my next account for cancellation. Guess I'll have to finish later today. Cheers!
LOL
Since no one has asked yet...can I have your stuff? |
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