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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
304
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Posted - 2012.02.22 21:39:00 -
[61] - Quote
Thank you!
Posts like yours and like this (created while I was not playing) make me find new strength to keep posting my borin... ehm didactical stuff
I am going to post some thing soon(TM). I am searching in the past threads on some forums (hence my finding above) for some proofs. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Marcus Nerva
Congolese Crafters Coalition
0
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Posted - 2012.03.05 23:55:00 -
[62] - Quote
VV,
Your posts are totally full of win. Thank you for all the work you put in.
I've been paying for my stuff (on main) for a long time with trading, and even though I aim for the fundamentals (arbitrage, supplying the impatient plebs) I am also aware that the market has a mind of its own composed of the wishes, fears, impulses and anxieties of many thousands of people.
This is why analysing graphs and candles and so forth is not realistic regarding fundamentals, but is VERY realistic regarding another fundamental: the trader's brainware.
To sum it up,
Thank you and will continue eagerly awaiting your work.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
514
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Posted - 2012.04.09 00:41:00 -
[63] - Quote
Some little update
Seeing I have problems updating EvEMarketeer.com, I ran my good old data gathering software and got out a bunch of market data dumps that somebody could find useful. The files contain a bit more than one year worth of data and are provided in 4 formats: industry OHLC, simple CSV, Yahoo OHLC and Excel OHLC CSV format. The latter may be used with my free Excel graph template to show graphic price bars directly in Excel.
The data files are many and cover isotopes, minerals, T2 materials, PI materials and commodities. A zip file containing the whole package may be downloaded from this location.
Longer term data files are also available for those markets but ATM they are not for the public.
For full details about how to import / use these data please refer to the old forums threads:
Experiment #03 On demand game market data and graphs
Completely free, possibly life changing, trading infos for everyone
As part of my EvE Online and RL trading course, you may find a very detailed and updated how-to import such data into a free trading platform called Multicharts Discretional Trader.
As you might probably know, I am very reluctant about posting what / when I bought stuff using my method, before I am done trading it. I'll make an half exception because I believe it's reasonably hard to manipulate some markets against me.
This is a partially censored screenshot of my Tritanium purchase (won't show Jita anything sorry), which is the latest of my minerals operations (some still going on).
Tomorrow I'll post a little market analysis with several possible entry points including the one I used, that were available in the past and in recent days. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Xaqa
Cryptic Arch
3
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Posted - 2012.04.09 02:08:00 -
[64] - Quote
awesome - look forward to reading it The Cryptic Arch - Always Building |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
516
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Posted - 2012.04.09 17:53:00 -
[65] - Quote
Analysis on Tritanium
Monthly graph
None needed, all the candles are bullish.
Weekly graph
Given the data files above, this is the weekly graph for Tritanium.
It's possible to see some interesting behaviors. I'll explain the whole thing even if it's not needed (didactical purpose) to talk about anything before March.
The first objective of an analysis it to understand the market general behavior. The markets tend to give warnings before things happen, expecially the liquid ones that cannot be easily manipulated. We start from the higher time frames because both the bars and the price levels (see the "lines" I have drawn) are much stronger than the daily bars. Purple lines = made on monthly bars, cyan = on weekly, orange (if present) = on daily bars. Yellow = Big Round Numbers (BRN) that sometimes play a psychological role. When do they do that? Simple. If candles in the past stopped around them or even inverted the trend then those BRNs are true levels and to be taken into consideration in the bigger picture.
Didactical text begins
From March 2011 to Dec 2012 Trit was in equilibrium in a tight range (3.3 - 3.55). Tight ranges often signal about a large trend after they end (consolidation). This range market (RM) formed a typical double bottom ("W shape"), a strong bullish pattern.
The range market got broken upwards and price retraced (= RET = went up then fell down and retested or re-hit the support). What used to be a strong resistance for many months (3.55) became support. Traders who bought at this point, did a very safe operation, this RET is what's needed to confirm the double bottom being true.
3rd week of January, price quickly rose up to BRN 4 where a number of traders took profit for 2 weeks. This is shown by the candles not being able to close above BRN 4. The "wick" above 4 is tall, meaning sellers managed to keep pressure for a good while. Sellers kept dumping on the next candle bar but buyers found it to be a good opportunity to buy (like it's happening right today).
Buyers failed to bring price above 4 but succeeded closing the candle a bit above the week before candle = chance to win. It'd be very imprudent to buy right below 4, despite that candle is a strong bullish PB (pin bar). Yet demand was > supply enough that some risked and succeeded. Next weeks we see buyers dominate sellers till 4.56, where a lot take profit. I did not check but I am fairly sure 4.5 was a top price we have seen when I started playing EvE. Markets have very long memory, in some ancient RL tickers we can see similar halts when price reached 30 years old thresolds.
Why does it happen? Because the first time the market stopped there because it was the perfect demand vs supply level, from that date onwards either it's again the same perfect demand vs supply level or the investors believe it will be again a perfect demand vs supply level (the result is similar, the bigger the investors the bigger it becomes true. Also see Self Fulfilling Prophecy and principle of Reflexivity).
Due to the sales, price fell down and last Feb 2012 week it formed a bullish PB at 4.40. The two price levels 4.40 - 4.56 are respectively support and resistance of tight range market. In RL a trader would buy that PB and only hold stock till price hits the resistance at 4.56. In EvE there are no leveraged, 4 decimal digits market, so price just breaks through while people still hold the stock.
As you can see, the next week RM's resistance was broken with a "spinning top" bar, that is indecision (see both bar "wicks" are equal and big). Buyers won again (the bar closed above the RM), retraced back to the previous 4.56 resistance now becoming support and formed an IPB. I won't explain the IPB (inverse pin bar) because it's very complex. Suffice to say they work as PBs in a complimentary way: exhaustion of sellers instead of predominance of buyers.
The next weeks price went "hyperbolical". It means it's fuelled mostly by greed vs fear and not by actual demand vs supply. The IPBs often happen right before such times. During the hyperbolical phase price becomes unstable and whimsical. This is why BRN 6 stopped it. The fight between buyers and sellers will be harder than before. It's the game of price discovery, losing strength till it finds a new stable equilibrium where it will range again and take a breather.
Didactical text ends
If the graph was posted when I bought Tritanium (March 26) then all it'd show as last candle would have been the PB 2 candles after the IPB. I should have bought Trit earlier but at the best time I was not subbed and then all my money was out in investments so...
Anyway, that PB closed below BRN 5 but above the IPB and the big candle "refilling" it.
Seen a favorable market situation, and seen monthly bars concording with weekly bars, the trader (both RL and EvE following this method) switches to the daily graph and (only there) he seeks for an entry point / trade opportunity.
Therefore I swiched to the daily chart and went to see what was going on March 20 (when I started looking for Trit deals). This will be part of the next post, that will appear later today (RL calls).
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
519
|
Posted - 2012.04.10 00:00:00 -
[66] - Quote
Daily graph
The daily graph is where the actual trading happens. Basically the monthly and weekly graphs set the crosshair, the daily graph is the trigger to shoot at it.
Here's the Trit daily graph for this analysis.
Once again I'll put a didactical section before the actual trade.
Didactical text begins
The first blue arrow points to a GREAT entry point for a trade. A 2 days pin bar (2D PB= one pin bar resulting off putting together two separate bars) is a very strong bullish pattern. Notice how it takes its liquidity from (its tail hits) BRN 4, a further strength multiplier.
7 days later, a second 2D PB forms and reinforces 4.37 as support. No other candle past it went below its tail, somebody buying there would not have been stopped (in RL it happens when price drops below the "stop loss" level) and would still make almost as much of a killing as somebody who bought in the previous entry shown above.
Price is constrained between 4.37 and 4.56 forming a range market that later on, reveals to be a double bottom (bars form a W shape). The second top - as often happens - shows another safe entry pattern. PB sitting on top of 4.37 support. In RL a trader would only trade from that support to the 4.56 resistance. Then he would seek for another trading opportunity above that 4.56 resistance, when price comes back down on top of it and forms a so called "retracement". In EvE prices move quicker so investors could just notice how price closed above the 4.56 resistance (see the spinning top at beginning of March). Plus 4.37 to 4.56 range is so small in EvE that it'd not be worth securing such a tiny profit.
Even if this had been a RL market and traders would have locked in their profits by selling at 4.56, a safe trade PB (the fourth) formed exactly where it should: at a swing retracing and retesting on the 4.56 level that switched from being resistance into being new support.
The fifth, mid March PB is NOT a safe trade. It comes after price hit a still unseen resistance and the two bars before it are equally opposite, meaning buyers and sellers are figthing on same strength => stay out. Plus that PB is in the middle of a range (4.56 to BRN 5) and middle of nowhere patterns are VERY unsafe and often useless. The only rule that works there, works for RL trading: the PB generally drives price back at least up to the bar before it and often as much as at least its tail length. In EvE it'd be too of a minuscule operation. If you notice, the PB indeed drove price up to and beyond its previous bar level (white dashed line price => PB => back up to white dashed line price).
Didactical text ends
That dashed line forms a strong support, while the mild curve that price does above it suggests BRN 5 is weak. I buy few days later (Graph shows Jita prices but I bought in Gallente market, which was more convenient and shifted in time).
There are two subsequent trade entries but they are low reward, high risk. The PB / BUEB (bullish engulfing bar) is a market sentiment entry and thus not as strong as a simple price action initiated one. The second is in the middle of nowhere, formed by a 3 bars triangle that form inside bars (next bar(s) are encased by previous one(s), the last of which is a small PB).
I hope this post was clear enough, else feel free to ask for clarifications!
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Xaqa
Cryptic Arch
3
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Posted - 2012.04.10 00:56:00 -
[67] - Quote
I can't tell you how happy it makes me that you provided a list of finance books to check out. Thanks
The Cryptic Arch - Always Building |
Kandreath
De Re Metallica Epsilon Shimmy Alliance
36
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Posted - 2012.04.10 12:33:00 -
[68] - Quote
I've seen this thread bump a couple of times and then saw the walls of text and figured I didn't have time to look at it.
Finally got too curious to resist and found 'candles'. MY GOD! I've 'played' with candles when plex prices were spiking. What I got was an interesting weekly candle chart, but I don't have the ability or knowledge right now to analyse them.
Now I become aware of this thread and start reading. This is pretty thick with data and it's going to take me a couple of days churn through it. Thanks for spending the time.
Now here is my question:
When I played with weekly candles, the charts changed depending on when the week started. In RL usually there is a weekend break but in Eve, the only break is down time. If I chose day 1 as Monday or Sunday or whatever there was a clear change. I then thought that perhaps the start of the week should be Wednesday because it is a lull in the week.
Q1. In your opinion does it matter which day of the week the weekly charts start on? - if yes, what day do you choose and why?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
524
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Posted - 2012.04.10 15:39:00 -
[69] - Quote
Kandreath wrote:I've seen this thread bump a couple of times and then saw the walls of text and figured I didn't have time to look at it.
Finally got too curious to resist and found 'candles'. MY GOD! I've 'played' with candles when plex prices were spiking. What I got was an interesting weekly candle chart, but I don't have the ability or knowledge right now to analyse them.
Now I become aware of this thread and start reading. This is pretty thick with data and it's going to take me a couple of days churn through it. Thanks for spending the time.
Please check also the last pages of the old forums thread, it's linked in the OP and explains more about this stuff.
Kandreath wrote: When I played with weekly candles, the charts changed depending on when the week started. In RL usually there is a weekend break but in Eve, the only break is down time. If I chose day 1 as Monday or Sunday or whatever there was a clear change. I then thought that perhaps the start of the week should be Wednesday because it is a lull in the week.
Q1. In your opinion does it matter which day of the week the weekly charts start on? - if yes, what day do you choose and why?
There are two factors.
1) Each market is a bit shifted in time due to the many production chains affecting each other. The most straightforward happen to be the best to trade with this swing trading method. Like in RL, players generally mine / whatever during the week and dump during the week ends, so you might want to set your first day as Monday. But you should check the swings by yourself, if you see a price dip each Saturday and then prices take off again on Sunday, then that would be your best day for a new week.
2) Candles just represent what the market is doing. As such the day the weekly ones refer to is not totally relevant. If a market is trending up, shifting by 1 day could morph that bullish pin bar into a bullish outside bar. That is, the overall patterns change their name and shape but not what they are telling you: to buy. Some times you indeed get adversely affected and get some faceless general bullish bar with no pattern but this would just happen some other week if you had picked a different starting day. It's still best advised to find the proper first day though, as they tend to give the clearest patterns of all.
Kandreath wrote: Q2. For the daily charts, how exactly do you determine 'open and close' price. As far as I can tell, scraping market history won't give it to you and the alternative of logging on at the close and open of every eve day sounds too hard.
There are several ways to synthesize open and close prices given the current cache data that also need some smart data sanitizing. It's well beyond the scope of this thread to explain that stuff. Suffice to say that me or websites like EvEMarketeer provide for that stuff to everyone, just download from there. I expecially cooperated with the EvEMarketeer developer to have his OHLC data dumps as exact as possible.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
EvilweaselFinance
BUTTECORP INC Goonswarm Federation
4
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Posted - 2012.04.10 16:11:00 -
[70] - Quote
what does a spot on the left side of the lower intestine of my chicken mean for the price of technetium? |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
524
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Posted - 2012.04.10 16:18:00 -
[71] - Quote
EvilweaselFinance wrote:what does a spot on the left side of the lower intestine of my chicken mean for the price of technetium?
If that chicken is part of a Genetically Ehnanced Livestocks batch which is used as component of your moon extraction process, it will certainly cause a little dip! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Tarik ThunderStorm
Deep Core Mining Inc. Caldari State
2
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Posted - 2012.04.12 18:22:00 -
[72] - Quote
AHHH! VV This information that you provide. Ive spent the last, i dont know how long, working through your old posts, linking to all kinds of varios places for information all over the web.
Its Incredibly helpful, and i enjoy analyzing the EVE markets as much as the RL ones.
Thanks for your hard work, and effort. Really appreciate it.
Kind Regards Tarik ThunderStorm |
Barakach
R-ISK Shadow Operations.
43
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Posted - 2012.04.12 18:53:00 -
[73] - Quote
VV, how do you do that Candle graph? Free Eve API app?
Thanks |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
547
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Posted - 2012.04.12 22:53:00 -
[74] - Quote
You can do everything by yourself and for free.
I posted multiple, step by step (with screen shots) tutorials about various solutions you have available.
The website with all this stuff is at this location.
In particular, the feature involving the candle bars you see is the "Multicharts" tutorial. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Kandreath
De Re Metallica Epsilon Shimmy Alliance
37
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Posted - 2012.04.16 14:17:00 -
[75] - Quote
[quote=Vaerah Vahrokha][b]Introduction[/b ...
- Use of a fully featured, free platform. I tried several but in the end I picked Multicharts Discretionary Trader. It has all the needed features but no cost, no streaming fee nothing. Plus it may easily import CSV files .. [/quote
VV I love your work, this is no criticism, are you sure this multicharts still has a free version? - I followed the link and it redirects to the company main page. Not so easily discouraged, I looked around the web site but I couldn't find a free version referenced anywhere (not even in the product comparisons).
I have found an alternate which works for me (and) I ended up loading up with RL market data as well [:=d
I just thought it was worth mentioning in case I'm missing something or it has changed
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
577
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Posted - 2012.04.16 15:44:00 -
[76] - Quote
(Please fix the quote in your post, my aesthetic sense is hurting )
Thank you much for your warning!
It looks like they stopped distributing the free version, like bad marketing companies do. Luckily enough the last available version is almost bug free.
I am looking for alternate download locations that don't involve shady websites. If anybody stumbles upon one please tell me so I can update the location.
For now I found this website, it says "Discretionary Trader" (the free version name), I don't know if it's the free version or not though.
Anybody who finds a downloadable version please post which build you found. I can attest that the latest I could get like 1 month ago, was version 7.4 build 79. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Cookiez Yum
Trader's Academy Solar Mechanics
0
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Posted - 2012.04.16 16:38:00 -
[77] - Quote
i was wondering if you could comment on the recent isogen rise mister VV ?
I have it from a very good sauce that it's going to reach 130isk p/u
Amazing graph
as you can see, the graph blatently shows how smooth the market will rise peaking at just under 130..
Thankyou in advance, i look forwards to your insights. |
Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
7
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Posted - 2012.04.16 16:51:00 -
[78] - Quote
Cookiez Yum wrote:i was wondering if you could comment on the recent isogen rise mister VV ? I have it from a very good sauce that it's going to reach 130isk p/u Amazing graphas you can see, the graph blatently shows how smooth the market will rise peaking at just under 130.. Thankyou in advance, i look forwards to your insights.
TA master level achievement unlocked! :)
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
578
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Posted - 2012.04.16 17:13:00 -
[79] - Quote
Update about Multicharts Discretionary Trader (the totally free version).
You can try grabbing it FAST from the Multicharts own website before they remove it at this location. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
578
|
Posted - 2012.04.16 17:19:00 -
[80] - Quote
Cookiez Yum wrote:i was wondering if you could comment on the recent isogen rise mister VV ? I have it from a very good sauce that it's going to reach 130isk p/u Amazing graphas you can see, the graph blatently shows how smooth the market will rise peaking at just under 130.. Thankyou in advance, i look forwards to your insights.
At the moment I am busy with one audit. I will get back to you as soon as possible, possibly later today or tomorrow. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
620
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Posted - 2012.04.19 00:37:00 -
[81] - Quote
I apologize for the delay on the Isogen analysis. I have commented graphs about Trit analysis made 2 days ago and Isogen made yesterday both just to type down but I did not have the physical time to write them.
I will post the Isogen one later today, in the late morning (2.37am here, yes I am that busy). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
621
|
Posted - 2012.04.20 00:06:00 -
[82] - Quote
Isogen market analysis
As usual I'll use the WPD + WPG method: EvE version, RL trading version, both posted by me; they are almost identical. First we get a general macro overview of the market by looking at the monthly and weekly charts (WPD - What Price is Doing), then seek if there are trading opportunities on the daily chart (WPG - Where Price is Going).
Monthly graph
Isogen is a market that looks a lot like some of the Yen cross over markets: lots of round numbers where price (P) loves to make price levels at. The purple line is a regular price level (market hit that level several times), which also happens to be not very powerful.
Here's the monthly (M) graph: linkage.
The many yellow lines represent where P did something sensible at Round Numbers (RNs) or Big Round Numbers (BRNs, more important). A typical example is the big Range Market (RM) from August 2011 to Jan 2012. A RM is where P does not trend, it just "oscillates" inside a "box" delimited below by a line acting as Support (S) and above by another line acting as Resistance (R). In our example, the Aug 2011 to Jan 2012 RM S is RN 59 and the RM R is 66.
The purple M line does not randomly cut that RM in half, there's a so called "market dynamic" rule stating how markets are composed mostly by connected range markets and those usually have a line "cutting" them in half. That line is where a battle between buyers and sellers for that level goes on and on till one of the two opposing forces wins and breaks the RM upwards (buyers win) or downwards (sellers win).
Notice the odd similarity with a RL market I analyzed on this thread on Forex Factory.
What Price is Doing (WPD)
P is trending up very steeply and formed an unconfirmed double top. This means that this pattern (strong bearish) is still not completely formed. Therefore we have still to assume that price might still rise. Price went hyperbolical (one of the sign of a possible crash, P cannot keep rising so steeply forever), the last candle bar shows both "wicks" being very long, which means both buyers and sellers are present and fighting with equal strength. Notice this is the monthly graph, that is the last indecision bar shows that for a whole month buyers and sellers are fighting with almost equal force.
Weekly graph
Here's the weekly graph.
What Price is Doing (WPD)
It shows the same situation seen for the M graph. Both the swings and the RMs are more visible though. Swings are the typical zig zag or serpentine motion of the markets. Notice the RM or box starting at the end of Jan 2012 and ending at end of Feb 2012, I hope it's clear how they are made now. Price takes strength when it ranges, this is one of the reasons why RMs are important. Plus, tall RMs may be easily traded: buy when P hits the RM floor, sell when P hits the ceiling.
Look at the last two weekly bars: as P comes close to BRN 100, there appear lots and lots of sellers, to the point of forming a Pin Bar (PB). It'd take the full strength of an expansion to manage to break BRN 100 as it's so strong of a resistance that P could not even hit the level, it's repelled before then. As of now, if it was a RL market (with no prior knowledge about what happens next) I would suggest to NOT buy before P breaks above 100 and retraces on it (that is, swings upside 100, then dips back to 100 => buy). Something might still be possible, but we have to look at the daily chart for that.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
621
|
Posted - 2012.04.20 01:30:00 -
[83] - Quote
Daily graph
Here's a first daily chart.
It's not immediately related to this analysis but I find it's didactical enough in explaining a concept used later in the analysis.
All to the left there's a large "W" shaped range market (RM) called double bottom. It is the flipped mirror of the "M" shaped double top. Double bottoms are usually a strong bullish pattern, while double (and triple) tops are a strong bearish pattern. The zoomed out rectangle shows that double bottom in detail, including the main swings that compose it.
If you look at the past years prices of many markets, you'll notice these double bottoms forming in the summer. These are the liquidity "generators", that is a number of large buyers grab stock at the minimum price to resell it in winter. The most typical examples of this are summer PLEX and POS fuels purchases for the whole rest of the year.
To the right (Apr 2012) there is another quite tight double bottom, which will be reviewed in the next chart. Both of these double bottoms are confirmed. A confirmed pattern is the only kind of pattern that may actually work and do what it's meant to do. Trading before patterns are confirmed is highly dangerous since many times they get invalidated and act randomly.
The confirmation happens when price exits the pattern bounding box in the proper direction (i.e. a double bottom wants P to close above its "box" resistance), closes the current candle (in the same time frame where we are analyzing the pattern) and then retraces on such resistance / support and make them respectively a new support / resistance.
I have created a quite clear example picture of a confirmed double bottom (the rule works for all patterns). As you can see the W is enclosed by its own support and resistance. If price closes up, then retraces down to the former resistance (dip) and rebounces, then the pattern is considered confirmed.
Now, if we look at the first daily graph again, we can see a pin bar (T shaped bar) closing above the purple line acting as former resistance and now turned into support. Likewise, on the rightmost small double bottom, another pin bar (the red candle just above the pattern) closes above the 88.76 orange daily line and confirms it.
Where Price is Going (WPG)
Lets now look at the second daily price graph.
Here we can clearly see the double bottom we talked about in the above paragraphs (the smaller one to the right). And here all the theory explained above comes together. As I said above, the double bottom is a RM and RMs often are cut by a line. This one is cut by the cyan weekly line, that is the price levels the buyers and sellers fought to conquer (the fight result is the RM itself, a price "oscillation" around the level). As I said above, the RM is a double bottom whose last bar closed above the encasing blue box and retraced back and formed a pin bar (red bar indicated by arrow).
The double bottom is also dynamic, that is its W "corners" are at a different price. A red trend line may be drawn and that red line may be used as money management tool. Until price will not close below that red line, it will be safe to keep the buy operation open. If a bar closes below it (not a double bar PB, they need further explanation) then the position should seriously be reviewed and eventually partially or completely closed.
Furthermore, P in the last days formed another RM, the blue box all to the upper right. Not randomly, there is another weekly cyan price level right in its middle. Buyers and sellers are once again figthing for territory right below BRN 100.
While P at the moment does not suggest anything "special", the RM could in theory be traded from its 92.50 bottom (see the little pin bar indicated by the arrow, bullish pattern sitting on support = buy) to the 97.66 top. I say in theory, because the RM is so small that it's just 4 ISK "tall", which is way too little.
This also happens in RL trading. Most daily chart located RMs are too small to be traded. RL traders look for weekly chart RMs instead, which on the daily chart (basically a zoom in) will look nicely tall and easily traded.
Conclusions
If your risk profile is low and prudent:
If you were RL trading you should sell when P goes again to the top of the upper RM (97.66). You would then buy again once P is above 100 and retraces back to it (same mechanism shown in the hand made double bottom picture) for maximum safety.
If your risk profile is medium:
If you were holding stock since say 70-ish you may choose to risk and see if P goes above 100. If P falls below the red line you should sell.
If you still don't have stock, do not buy now. Wait for BRN100 to be broken first, or for P to crash. Price often crashes to the previous important support, which in our case is the top of the double bottom. That is P would first crash to 88.76.
I recognize this was a BIG analysis with a lot of concepts to learn.
If you have any questions please feel free to ask. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
YuuKnow
208
|
Posted - 2012.04.20 03:14:00 -
[84] - Quote
Can I just give you my isk, you turn it into a fortune, and then give it back to me?
yk |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
621
|
Posted - 2012.04.20 07:00:00 -
[85] - Quote
YuuKnow wrote:Can I just give you my isk, you turn it into a fortune, and then give it back to me?
yk
About 1 year ago I created an hedge fund, MRVAHFTHF012.
This fund has exactly the purpose of gathering ISK to invest it into a variety of activities including trading. Till now it's pretty much dormant, but if I saw interest I could reactivate it.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Vera Algaert
Republic University Minmatar Republic
75
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Posted - 2012.04.20 07:28:00 -
[86] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:If you have any questions please feel free to ask. I take a look at the graph for the last day and I see one pattern. I take a look at the graph for the last week and I see another pattern. I take a look at the graph for the last month and I see a third pattern. I take a look at the graph for the last 3 months and things do look differently again. I take a look at the graph for the last year and ...
Let's say I want to make some predictions/derive trading rules for the next 2-3 days. I look at a 1-day, 3-day and 1-week graph and analyze each one separately. Now I have three different predictions that will usually be contradictory to each other. Which one should I use? |
YuuKnow
209
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Posted - 2012.04.20 12:41:00 -
[87] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:YuuKnow wrote:Can I just give you my isk, you turn it into a fortune, and then give it back to me?
yk This fund has exactly the purpose of gathering ISK to invest it into a variety of activities including trading. Till now it's pretty much dormant, but if I saw interest I could reactivate it.
Right now with about 1bil invested in some reproccessing markets I make about 75-100mil a week with low effort. I guess that's about 5-10% return on investment per week. Problem is that the returns don't scale with the amount invested (if I put 2bil into the reprocessing then I still get about 100-200mil per week. Can you beat that?
yk |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
622
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Posted - 2012.04.20 15:40:00 -
[88] - Quote
YuuKnow wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:YuuKnow wrote:Can I just give you my isk, you turn it into a fortune, and then give it back to me?
yk This fund has exactly the purpose of gathering ISK to invest it into a variety of activities including trading. Till now it's pretty much dormant, but if I saw interest I could reactivate it. Right now with about 1bil invested in some reproccessing markets I make about 75-100mil a week with low effort. I guess that's about 5-10% return on investment per week. Can you beat that? yk
Depends on how much effort is :effort: for you. For me it's if I have to stay logged on for more than 5 minutes a day. If I played for enough time (say 1 hour a day) I think I'd have no problem with that kind of performance but I won't.
That's also why I am invested in 5 different MD loans / bonds right now (did anyone on MD ever do that?): lowest :effort: to get money even if certainly not the most effective. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
173
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Posted - 2012.04.20 15:59:00 -
[89] - Quote
VV, I walked into work today and saw one of my co-workers had a candlestick chart up on his Ipad, and my first thought was "oh, guess he plays EvE too. Then I realized he's just another member of the TA cult in the "real" world. Made me laugh. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
622
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Posted - 2012.04.20 17:33:00 -
[90] - Quote
OllieNorth wrote:VV, I walked into work today and saw one of my co-workers had a candlestick chart up on his Ipad, and my first thought was "oh, guess he plays EvE too. Then I realized he's just another member of the TA cult in the "real" world. Made me laugh.
If he had squiggly lines he's member of a cult. If it was a simple chart with nothing else except price, then it's as much as a cult as it is going to the supermarket and reading products' prices. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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