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Barrak
Wormhole Engineers Greater Realms
66
|
Posted - 2012.10.13 17:52:00 -
[181] - Quote
I know I have asked this before, but how do you get your information into candle charts?
(can't find my old question).
Regards
Barrak |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1940
|
Posted - 2012.10.14 17:10:00 -
[182] - Quote
Barrak wrote:I know I have asked this before, but how do you get your information into candle charts?
(can't find my old question).
Regards
Barrak
I created my own cache scrapping web page (available on my website) and a script whose output are a series of CSV files ready to be fed to several plaforms. Sadly the latter is quite complex both to install and operate.
The other way is to save EVEMarketeer OHLC CSV export, it produces the same data (see beginning of this thread, where I and his coder discussed the algorythms). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1954
|
Posted - 2012.11.05 23:47:00 -
[183] - Quote
PLEX analysis
Since there's a lot of talking about PLEX both in game and this forum, I thought it could be interesting to post my findings about this market. Once again I'll use the WPD-WPG method (What Price is Doing - Where Price is Going).
Monthly chart
Screenshot
WPD After a number of months where price stayed constrained inside a bullish channel (delimited by the red trend lines), a bearish monthly pin bar (PB) has formed. Monthly bars are very powerful and can easily turn the tables. PBs (from "Pinochio Bars") show a very big "tail" or "wick" fooling traders in one direction, while they are a strong signal to the opposite side. The PB closed below BRN 600 (forming the monthly level @592M). Closing below a price level is a second sign that buyers are quite exhausted and need a pause at a minimum if not the beginning of trend inversion. The lack of sellers in the last swing leading to the pin bar gives another sign of weakness. Trends with no pauses, with no "breath" are fragile. However stopping or inverting a monthly trend is a tremendous effort. The PB size is not a lot bigger than the previous bars, this means there's a chance that it won't be able to immediately invert the trend (also called "direct inversion") with a major, "abrupt" inversion.
Weekly chart
Screenshot
WPD The weekly chart is concordant with the monthly. In this case we have another (weekly this time) bearish pin bar. This time the bar is quite bigger than the others before it, this means a minor inversion is taking place. Usually pin bars hit price like a stone thrown in water: the stone digs in the water but then the water comes back up and "pops" above its level, creates ripples and so on. Inversion pin bars "ripples" are Range Markets (RMs), that is areas where price just oscillates inside a rectangle for a while before strongly breaking the rectangle and going up or down.
It's indeed possible to see a tight RM (blue) currently being formed. Both the RM and and the PB don't close above another previous PB (marked with an arrow). That is their bodies stay within the upper "wick" of that PB. Those bars that manage to "cover" the next ones are called "controlling bars" and come with a series of behaviors too long to describe here. Suffice to say that until a bar breaks above them, they "dominate" the next bars. In this case that PB is commanding the whole market to stay within its upper "wick".
Notice that saying "closes below", "closes inside" does not preclude the possibility to see price spiking up and then back down within a week. I.e. if you look at the pin bar, it's body dictates that the market could not go above 592M but its tail goes up to 660M.
What does that mean? This is bound to a fascinating mechanism called "how bars form" that I might cover if people will ask for that. In few words, the wicks represent short "spikes" that form inside a bar. A weekly bar is formed by 5 to 7 (futures RL market vs EvE) daily bars. Daily bars may individually go to 660M and then be countered back to 592M without the weekly bar changing its meaning. Result: the market on the weekly time frame fails to go above 592M despite a day or two we had spikes. The spikes are opportunities to sell very high, the bodies tell the real long term market intentions.
Last market clue: the blue RM formed below BRN 600. Since RMs represent an close battle between buyers and sellers, this means buyers start in disadvantage. When they are even, those RMs happen across the BRN. When buyers are stronger, the RMs happen right above the BRN (this was easy to guess, eh?).
Daily chart
Screenshot
WPG The daily chart shows another pin bar (that is, all the time frames are concordant = stronger effects) along with the nearby range market in blue. The PB was stopped in its rise by the long term red trend line and it's formed by two bars. Those 2 bar PBs are called 2D PBs (or 2W PB if they are formed by 2 weeks, 2M PB if they are formed by 2 months). The 2 bars effectively cancel each other and their net result is a lone PB. You can experience how it's true by setting a charting software to 2 days time frame: these 2D PBs will show as a "normal" PB. Now, that PB is also much larger than the previous swing bars and there are no seller (= red) bars in the last swing before it => trend inversion pin bar.
Where price is going?
Once again I'll disappoint those who believe I can see the future. (Profitable) Trading is reactive, that is it relies on seeing "triggers" happen first, and then setting up the actual trade after. In this case, there is a buyers vs sellers battle below BRN 600 (as said above). Who wins the RM wins the BRN and decides the next market direction. If buyers win they will bring price above BRN 600. IF a second PB will form (prolly at close to Christmas) then we will see a so called "double top", a very strong inversion pattern (once confirmed). I aptly dimmed such second PB / 2D PB because it's impossible to know if it will come or not. If it won't form, price will keep slowly rising for a while inside the red trend lines until it will abruptly fall.
On the contrary, if sellers win, price will possibly hit the next swing (see grey dashed line) and may (or may not) rebound to the bottom of the RM. In RL trading, only in case the rebound happens, then it's possible to go short exactly at the level of the rebound itself.
What to do now? Well you can buy at 570 and sell at 592M till the RM breaks. Only then the price will do what I typed above.
Hope I was not too much confusing, I understand it's exceedingly hard to pack tons of concepts in one post. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1972
|
Posted - 2012.11.11 23:15:00 -
[184] - Quote
Megacyte
Tomorrow I will post a similar analysis for Zydrine. In fact there are many wondering what's going on with these minerals, that "mysteriously" are rising in value.
Well, mysteriously only if you are playing mind games, wondering about what patch note or what fundamentals are affecting them.
But alas, here we don't use those things.
First of all the proof of concept: three screenshots of *some* of my Megacyte and Zydrine purchases proving I put money where my mouth is:
Purchase 1 Purchase 2 Purchase 3
As I always say, this is a very relaxed way to trade. Buy today (possibly directly off sell orders), sell weeks later (possibly dumping to buy orders). Compare with these days prices. Despite the very relaxed way to trade, I pocketed 20-25% of about 30B in one month. It's not bad after all, eh?
Of course this is not something that happens all the time. This is one of the two good times of the year and this is why I wanted to start the funds so fast: to try catch price on the rise before it's gone home.
In the next stop, the full trading plan from the buy to the next sales to the future sales (aka take profits). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1972
|
Posted - 2012.11.11 23:57:00 -
[185] - Quote
Megacyte
Monthly chart
What price is doing Please refer to this screenshot to see the commented chart.
A massively large triangle formed in 2009. Triangles are momentum accumulating patterns so when it broke upwards (see the screenshot) it created some powerful upwards reaction.
Price tanked afterwards and formed a monthly "doji" / "spinning top" bar (an indecision bar where buyers and sellers fight a lot). Very often those bars become controlling bars. Sadly I have not room to explain them here, it'd take hours. Suffice to say controlling bars affect the next bars that close within their height and decide their target (that is where they go ending up at).
Being bearish, it commanded price to hit its minimum as first target. Price continued past the bar minimum and formed two mutually cancelling bars that together form a 2 Months pin bar. For 2 Month / week / day pin bars theory please refer to the previous posts.
The first target for a (bullish in this case as the second bar is green) in trend pin bar (conter trend often don't) is the maximum of the previous 2 bars. This first target as you can see has been almost hit.
Weekly chart
What price is doing The weekly chart is a mine of market knowledge. Here's the screenshot.
First of all, at first sight it's evident how Megacyte is one of those markets that closely observes Big Round Numbers (BRN). This is helps at making analysis easy.
We can still see the triangle. Where its sides meet (the apex) is almost in confluence (i.e. multiple clues at one price) with BRN 2500 (2550 to be precise). That's a sensible point, where buyers and seller fight the hardest, the topic equilibrium level between demand and supply. Once price gets there it may exhibit erratic and violent reactions and even heavy retracements or inversions. As you can see, price is not very far off that point and it is the first take profit level (that is, positions are partially closed and profit taken). At the moment price hit 2400 (weekly level and also Round Number - that is a weaker BRN). This is not a random thing, if you look at the "rectangle" (not drawn) of bars to the left of the current circled pin bar you can see none of them closes above 2400. That's a nice resistance, expecially since it's weekly (thus stronger than the daily chart). Those rectangles are called Range Markets, because price moves up and down in an apparent random oscillation.
If price will manage to get to 2550 and break this sensible place then another powerful Range Market (drawn in blue, to the left) will influence it. See 1) on the chart. Not randomly at all, the base or support of that rectangle sits exactly at 2550, yes the pivotal Megacyte equilibrium level really impacts on this market. 2) As I was saying, if price gets to this RM and enters it, then it will quickly hit its median line (another concept I am sorry I can't explain here, it's not essential to know but gives nice clues) where we have to perform money management. Money management in this specific case means looking at how price "looks like" and possibly partially close the position. Passed the median, price will go to the RM resistance (upper side). The RM resistance, marked as 3) on the chart, is the second take profit. Not randomly at all, the RM resistance is exactly a spot where a price swing touched the triangle upper side. Triangles swings are all intermediate take profits. The next take profit (if price gets there) is the top of the Dec 2011 range market (see all those bars forming a rectangle, even if I did not mark it). The next target (if price gets there) is the other spot the triangle hits the trend line, which not randomly at all matches BRN 3500. The last target (unlikely price will go there but...) is RN 3700, that is the body of those bars that reached the highest price.
This is my plan.
Plan the trade and then trade the plan.
Daily chart
Where Price is Going The daily chart is less juicy (the weekly tends to be the "tactical view") but it's where the actual trade entry points are to be found. Here's the screenshot.
I have drawn a descending trend line that marks where price begins to invert its previous downtrend. Once bars break it and form the usual "W shaped" double bottom (another way to invert trend along with pin bars and others) we start seeking for price action which triggers the trade. A BUOB and then a (circled) PB formed and broke the trend line. While in RL trading one should NOT buy right there (need retracement for confirmed double bottom first), in EvE price tends to run away so fast - due to low markets liquidity - that we need to risk. Now, while low liquidity imposes this risk, it also offer a reward: the very act of buying large amount of illiquid markets items causes the market itself to rise and helps giving the up-trend kick start we need.
Once opened the position we... forget trading and let the plan trade itself.
The chart does not need a lot of additional explanations, I just put some arrows (could put many more) to point at how often Megacyte precisely honors Big Round Numbers. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
King Aires
Coffee Sipper's Club Biggby Coffee Fan Club
21
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 00:44:00 -
[186] - Quote
Nate Silver? Is that you? |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1972
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 00:56:00 -
[187] - Quote
King Aires wrote:Nate Silver? Is that you?
Nope, I did not invent neither the markets nor their rules nor the trading method I use. The trading method works based on recent-to-ancient data so in no way it predicts future (in this it resembles how Nate Silver works). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
835
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 03:57:00 -
[188] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:King Aires wrote:(in this it resembles how Nate Silver works).
Except for the part where, at the end of the day, what Nate Silver does is based on hard facts and mathematics. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1972
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 07:48:00 -
[189] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:King Aires wrote:(in this it resembles how Nate Silver works). Except for the part where, at the end of the day, what Nate Silver does is based on hard facts and mathematics.
He uses an in depth database of past performance and he discerns distinct cases to build more accurate models on.
A trading plan is basically an in depth database of past performance (past supports and resistances) and distinct patterns are discerned to build a more accurate model on.
All what you see on a chart used to be (manually) calculated by hand based on hard mathematics and it produces numbers.
Anyway keep believing that everything you don't know is wrong by definition, I will keep posting purchases screenshots proving you are wrong. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
836
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 16:16:00 -
[190] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:corestwo wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:King Aires wrote:(in this it resembles how Nate Silver works). Except for the part where, at the end of the day, what Nate Silver does is based on hard facts and mathematics. He uses an in depth database of past performance and he discerns distinct cases to build more accurate models on. A trading plan is basically an in depth database of past performance (past supports and resistances) and distinct patterns are discerned to build a more accurate model on. All what you see on a chart used to be (manually) calculated by hand based on hard mathematics and it produces numbers.
lol
Here's something Nate Silver would say: "Based on these things, X candidate is now projected to have a 69.3% chance of winning the election."
Here's something you said, when analyzing PLEX a few posts up: "PLEX might go up. Or they might go down. When, by how much, or indeed which direction, I don't actually know."
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Anyway keep believing that everything you don't know is wrong by definition, I will keep posting purchases screenshots proving you are wrong.
I just love it when people put words in my mouth. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
|
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
235
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 20:40:00 -
[191] - Quote
nate silver used pattern to predict the election results.
there is a consistent pattern between Republican and Democratic wins every 4 years, find it, spot the pattern feel like an idiot after believing that Percent crap all over the news bullish propaganda. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1973
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 22:26:00 -
[192] - Quote
corestwo wrote: Here's something Nate Silver would say: "Based on these things, X candidate is now projected to have a 69.3% chance of winning the election."
Here's something you said, when analyzing PLEX a few posts up: "PLEX might go up. Or they might go down. When, by how much, or indeed which direction, I don't actually know."
He needs to give a number to get paid, I don't. His focus is the number.
A trader needs to trade a plan. His focus is the plan not the price nor whether price goes up, down or ranges. In my RL analyses I usually don't even look at the prices, I have just to create a "program" that says:
"IF condition 1 THEN..." "IF condition 2 THEN..."
etc. etc.
Why should I even care about price going up or down? It's not like I earn 1 penny less if I go long instead of going short.
What I do need to know is: "is it worth going long vs going short"?
Edit:
Let's look at the Megacyte (and later I'll post Zydrine). I knew for sure that I could buy at the inversion 2M pin bar, because those work in a precise way. So that's what I did. Despite there was no number indicated, the action was made and buying / selling is really the only action a trader can do (a number does me no good).
The act of pressing "buy" (or sell) is "the Nate Silver number" not the plan made leading to it.
And screenshots of numbers were posted. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Wibla
Tactical Narcotics Team
116
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 23:13:00 -
[193] - Quote
Upon reading your post, this was what popped into my mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kemp0b1i1Q0
You need help. |
Shiv Katall
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
2
|
Posted - 2012.11.12 23:17:00 -
[194] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Why should I even care about price going up or down? It's not like I earn 1 penny less if I go long instead of going short.
You cant be for real. Right? You are just playing at being this stupid.
Just so you realize, this is the point that we are all laughing at you. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
841
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 00:35:00 -
[195] - Quote
in before whining about how cfc leadership has sicced goons on this thread This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1973
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 00:38:00 -
[196] - Quote
corestwo wrote:in before whining about how cfc leadership has sicced goons on this thread
Don't worry, it's like dark matter. They can live even without knowing what it is. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1973
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 00:39:00 -
[197] - Quote
Shiv Katall wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Why should I even care about price going up or down? It's not like I earn 1 penny less if I go long instead of going short.
You cant be for real. Right? You are just playing at being this stupid. Just so you realize, this is the point that we are all laughing at you.
What's to laugh about that statement? Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Shiv Katall
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 05:24:00 -
[198] - Quote
You are talking about applying real life economics into EVE online.
If you are serious then you should realize that price fluctuations up/down directly influence and indirectly influence everything within a chain.
Lets take a real world look at this then. Sorry I dont have candle bars or screenshots for you.
Take the price of gas. To a farmer in the midwest of the US that affects his entire business. Because that extra money then gets put off thru the entire chain of his economic business structure. From tractor fuel, fertilizer, planting, maintaining the fields, harvesting, shipping to the grocer, to the consumer, to how the consumer now has to budget their paycheck to make sure that they can afford the extra cost that is put on them by purchasing the produce.
Which means that they end up paying less on manufactured goods that boosts an economy. Now if it was reversed and price falls, that means that there is more profit to be made. So the farmer hires more hands to work the fields, he buys more land, or others jump in because $$ is to be made. Eventually it becomes too saturated.
The amount of people that are affected by just that one example is a vast amount. That has direct correlation regardless if you are buying/selling.
Saying that you are not concerned about price going up or down is a silly statement when the price of one item going up or down is directly relevant to other fluctuations in the market.
Next time I will include screenshots for you to help make it simpler if needed. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1973
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 09:13:00 -
[199] - Quote
Shiv Katall wrote:You are talking about applying real life economics into EVE online.
and
Shiv Katall wrote:Next time I will include screenshots for you to help make it simpler if needed.
Here are my screenshots. I am not talking, I am doing. It's now years that not only I apply real life economics into EvE online, but I also apply EvE economics to real life.
Here are some proofs with screenshots, taken from Forex:
AUDCAD analysis posted in an Italian forum (see the writings language) on Oct 29. AUDCAD price today.
EURCAD trade analysis and orders placed on the platform, posted on Oct 24. EURCAD update EURCAD last update and second take profit
CADCHF orders placed on the platform. Pin bars are some of my money makers. CADCHF update, first profit taken, close to second take profit already.
EURJPY orders placed on the platform. EURJPY update after the first take profit. The second TP did not get hit.
EURJPY Nov 7 trade, order placed on the platform. EURJPY trade update, going for take profit. I did not bother posting the trade close at the time, so I am posting a screenshot taken minutes ago that shows how price hit the target.
Shiv Katall wrote: If you are serious then you should realize that price fluctuations up/down directly influence and indirectly influence everything within a chain.
Lets take a real world look at this then. Sorry I dont have candle bars or screenshots for you.
Take the price of gas. To a farmer in the midwest of the US that affects his entire business. Because that extra money then gets put off thru the entire chain of his economic business structure. From tractor fuel, fertilizer, planting, maintaining the fields, harvesting, shipping to the grocer, to the consumer, to how the consumer now has to budget their paycheck to make sure that they can afford the extra cost that is put on them by purchasing the produce.
Which means that they end up paying less on manufactured goods that boosts an economy. Now if it was reversed and price falls, that means that there is more profit to be made. So the farmer hires more hands to work the fields, he buys more land, or others jump in because $$ is to be made. Eventually it becomes too saturated.
The amount of people that are affected by just that one example is a vast amount. That has direct correlation regardless if you are buying/selling.
Saying that you are not concerned about price going up or down is a silly statement when the price of one item going up or down is directly relevant to other fluctuations in the market.
I am not concerned: neither whether price goes up or down nor about why. I know that something important happened in the past (supports / resistances) but I don't care about what it was, just that it happened and it might happen again. I know that price, for its reasons I don't care to know, may go up or down and I plan for both cases (the "price could go up or down or sideways" that corestwo finds funny). The plan also involves deciding whether to accept one of its branches. IE if I see a good risk : reward for going long and a bad one for going short, and the short case happens then I just stay out.
That's all of it. Have the farmer do his life, have price do its life. Fundamental analysts - often employed by large funds / institutions - will study the farmer's life and how to profit off it. Price action analysts - often employed by hedge funds or working alone - will study the price's life and how to profit off it.
Fundamental analysts tend to make more money on the long run and more long lasting business since they are the so called "most informed traders" (see profit relation with information asymmetry). The others earn less but have to involve enormously smaller effort and resources in research.
Bringing the concept in EvE, corestwo studies, knows in great depth and makes / manipulates some markets on a grand scale and thus is the informed, fundamental trader. I am the (not so small) independent trader and hedge fund manager who easily hops across 100 markets on a smaller scale and thus is a less informed trader. I am still classed as informed, see Larry Harris Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Shiv Katall
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 13:42:00 -
[200] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I am not concerned: neither whether price goes up or down nor about why. I know that something important happened in the past (supports / resistances) but I don't care about what it was, just that it happened and it might happen again. I know that price, for its reasons I don't care to know, may go up or down and I plan for both cases (the "price could go up or down or sideways" that corestwo finds funny). The plan also involves deciding whether to accept one of its branches. IE if I see a good risk : reward for going long and a bad one for going short, and the short case happens then I just stay out.
That is why you will never be Corestwo. And this is why anyone who is serious about markets is taking what you say as drivel. |
|
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1978
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 18:27:00 -
[201] - Quote
Shiv Katall wrote: That is why you will never be Corestwo. And this is why anyone who is serious about markets is taking what you say as drivel.
I cannot, nor I want to be Corestwo. I want to check a market I don't know anything about for 10 minutes and then place a trade and earn 10-30% autopilot profit.
It's a preference, not "drivel".
Also, the only reason I trade (I could stop doing anything and pay sub with PLEXes for years) is because it keeps me trained for RL, for me EvE trading is training.
Finally, you skipped completely the RL trades examples, which after all is what I care about (that is, to make RL money). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Shiv Katall
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
3
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 18:48:00 -
[202] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I want to check a market I don't know anything about for 10 minutes and then place a trade and earn 10-30% autopilot profit.
I agree with this. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1978
|
Posted - 2012.11.13 23:49:00 -
[203] - Quote
Zydrine
Bought it in the same days I bought Megacyte. The monthly graphs are similar enough: inversion 2 months pin bar (2M PB).
Monthly chart
What price is doing Screenshot.
In a bearish trend, a bullish 2M PB formed. Its first target (as explained in the Megacyte analysis) is the price at the high of the 2nd bar before it (indicated as 2M PB first target). In fact the next bar hit that target, which coincides with BRN 900, and the first take profit has been taken. If price will behave like it did in the past and goes above 900, it could go to BRN 1000 before forming a RM.
Weekly chart
What price is doing Screenshot.
Price is in an uptrend with no sellers. Lack of down swings makes the trend weaker and to go hyperbolic (the more a trend grows vertical the less it can go on before crashing). At the end of the last week, the bar closed below BRN 900, another sign of weakness.
Daily chart
Where price is going Screenshot.
The scenario is as the weekly chart hinted. Price is steadily rising. At first the buyers are so strong that price gets confined inside a smooth bullish channel. At a certain point (November) the lack of sellers makes the price go vertical. It goes so steep that it breaks the bullish channel but then the inevitable happens: the trend gets fragile and crashes against BRN 900 forming one top. Buyers try again but fail (second top) and panic. Top + second top = range market (RM) called double top (duh) which is a strong inversion pattern. It brings price back inside the bullish channel. The first target of the double top (like any RM) is its projected height, therefore price will want to go down and hit the purple monthly level at 820 (*). However until price actually breaks out of the RM, the double top is confirmed but the inversion is not. If it will break and confirm the inversion then 820 is the next target. Another clue about price wanting to retrace down is the general rule that says: "when price re-enters a RM (bullish channel in this case) the old support and resistance encasing that RM become again current support and resistance. The current support is at the lower trend line, wich at the moment would mean hitting the 820 level.
Price is like a flipper ball: it hits boundaries formed by supply and demand dynamics, the stronger and the more they are the more price reacts. In this case it will try hard to hit 820 in confluence with the bullish channel trend line and bounce up. If it does then the next target is BRN 900 again. If it fails then close all the positions.
(*) Indicated prices, due to how EvE saves data, are not taken from minimum sell or maximum buy but from the buy + sell averages of the whole The Forge region. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vadane Deninard
Procyon Technologies
9
|
Posted - 2012.11.14 09:22:00 -
[204] - Quote
I'm not sure what kind of hating between you guys is going on here and I'm actually not interested to interfere. It just astounds me that someone is doing something for the community for free and receives some serious head wind.
I'm not an expert in RL trading but from what I know, technical analysis is of course sometimes viewed as a "cheap" way to look at the markets and that its certainly not the best idea to base your trades on tech anaylsis only. Fundamental analysis (i.e. understanding on what is really going on on the markets and why) is more important - but IIRC, VV was stressing that in his OP.
I'm not even sure if thats the point of his "adversaries" or if they just want to point out: "usuuug!"
Anyway, I hope VV you dont get discouraged by such comments and keep doing your stuff. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1987
|
Posted - 2012.11.14 10:55:00 -
[205] - Quote
Vadane Deninard wrote:I'm not sure what kind of hating between you guys is going on here and I'm actually not interested to interfere. It just astounds me that someone is doing something for the community for free and receives some serious head wind.
I'm not an expert in RL trading but from what I know, technical analysis is of course sometimes viewed as a "cheap" way to look at the markets and that its certainly not the best idea to base your trades on tech anaylsis only. Fundamental analysis (i.e. understanding on what is really going on on the markets and why) is more important - but IIRC, VV was stressing that in his OP.
I'm not even sure if thats the point of his "adversaries" or if they just want to point out: "usuuug!"
Anyway, I hope VV you dont get discouraged by such comments and keep doing your stuff.
Thank you for your support, I am preparing a special surprise expecially dedicated to you but also for the numerous supporters of this initiative. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1987
|
Posted - 2012.11.15 20:53:00 -
[206] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Vadane Deninard wrote:I'm not sure what kind of hating between you guys is going on here and I'm actually not interested to interfere. It just astounds me that someone is doing something for the community for free and receives some serious head wind.
I'm not an expert in RL trading but from what I know, technical analysis is of course sometimes viewed as a "cheap" way to look at the markets and that its certainly not the best idea to base your trades on tech anaylsis only. Fundamental analysis (i.e. understanding on what is really going on on the markets and why) is more important - but IIRC, VV was stressing that in his OP.
I'm not even sure if thats the point of his "adversaries" or if they just want to point out: "usuuug!"
Anyway, I hope VV you dont get discouraged by such comments and keep doing your stuff. Thank you for your support, I am preparing a special surprise expecially dedicated to you but also for the numerous supporters of this initiative.
And here we go, what you (and others) wanted became true! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Alwar Seko
Fistful of Finns Nulli Secunda
0
|
Posted - 2012.11.17 13:36:00 -
[207] - Quote
Exelent thread, keep up the good work.
Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1996
|
Posted - 2012.11.17 18:11:00 -
[208] - Quote
Alwar Seko wrote:Exelent thread, keep up the good work. Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily
Thank you for the appreciation!
It's the least I could do, I got so much help reading this forum that giving back is the mimumum.
I have done it several times in the past but I'll repeat it again: none of my RL life and none of my EvE current life would be possible if one day I would not have read this thread. It all started from there, and from some ancient traders writing how they'd earn a lot of ISK by setting orders 10 minutes a day (not 12 hours a day), just in the right way. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
848
|
Posted - 2012.11.17 18:17:00 -
[209] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Alwar Seko wrote:Exelent thread, keep up the good work. Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily Thank you for the appreciation! It's the least I could do, I got so much help reading this forum that giving back is the mimumum. I have done it several times in the past but I'll repeat it again: none of my RL life and none of my EvE current life would be possible if one day I would not have read this thread. It all started from there, and from some ancient traders writing how they'd earn a lot of ISK by setting orders 10 minutes a day (not 12 hours a day), just in the right way.
No wonder people can't take you seriously. "FOR JUST TEN MINUTES A DAY YOU TOO CAN MAKE THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS" sounds entirely too much like the pitch for basically any get rich quick scheme ever. This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.
fofofo |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1996
|
Posted - 2012.11.17 18:42:00 -
[210] - Quote
corestwo wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Alwar Seko wrote:Exelent thread, keep up the good work. Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily Thank you for the appreciation! It's the least I could do, I got so much help reading this forum that giving back is the mimumum. I have done it several times in the past but I'll repeat it again: none of my RL life and none of my EvE current life would be possible if one day I would not have read this thread. It all started from there, and from some ancient traders writing how they'd earn a lot of ISK by setting orders 10 minutes a day (not 12 hours a day), just in the right way. No wonder people can't take you seriously. "FOR JUST TEN MINUTES A DAY YOU TOO CAN MAKE THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS" sounds entirely too much like the pitch for basically any get rich quick scheme ever.
First of all you should demonstrate people can't take me seriously. Find me ANYONE in this game who can post screenshots of his past purchases both in game and in RL (posted few posts above) and compare with today's prices and show the profit. Second, it's not a mystery that markets fluctuations take out orders even without babysitting. Third, I can't change what people posted on this forum, whether you agree with it or not. It's people like Kazzac Elentria and similar. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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