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Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Gaogan
Gallente Solar Storm
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Posted - 2007.05.16 04:49:00 -
[31]
How do the mentioned probability multipliers on the decrypters stack? I saw somewhere that the base chance of inventing ships is 15%, and after 6/6 failed ship jobs with test reports, it does seem to be much lower than 3/5 succeeded module jobs with no decrypter. The question is, what skill level is that 15% chance with ( I have 4/4/4 ) and how does that stack with the decrypters?
If they multiply doesn't that mean the -60% chance +9 runs decrypter would give you only a 6% success rate inventing ships? So wouldn't you be an idiot to use anything other than the +30% chance one?
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Ittey
Rayden Industries
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Posted - 2007.05.16 06:30:00 -
[32]
You have to factor in how much more money are you going to be able to make with those extra runs. If you are inventing hulks then you may be willing to take a 4% success rate over a 10% because when you get that success you get 10 runs instead of 5, or 1 with no decryptors.
And what success rate skill 4/4/4 or any other level is still unknown, but there are getting enough samples that it will get more and more accurate. ---------------------------------------------- My invention guide: here |
Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.05.16 12:59:00 -
[33]
Noticed you where looking for info on negtive ME as well, I did that formula some time ago here.
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
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Zhuge Liang
Forum Moderator Interstellar Services Department
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Posted - 2007.05.16 15:07:00 -
[34]
Good stuff, sticked with an unholy amount of glue.
Quick! To the Banmobile! |
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Gaogan
Gallente Solar Storm
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Posted - 2007.05.16 23:57:00 -
[35]
5 runs at 10% is better than 10 runs at 4% hands down. The question is, what are the actual odds you get after the decrypters are applied on top of your skills?
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Aykido
Gallente Lobster of Babel
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Posted - 2007.05.17 01:12:00 -
[36]
Edited by: Aykido on 17/05/2007 01:11:13 A statistical sample is around 1000 identical invention attempts, needs to be repeated with different skill levels, decryptors etc.
Lots of work
And still you'd have a small chance that you would get a wrong/skewed result.
Furthermore, the devs seem to have tweaked chances a few times since invention became possible. And it is possible that they implement new tweaking first on Sisi, or at least that they sometimes do.
So this is going to take a while.
Selling PERFECT PRINTS of 674 of the 730 seeded T1 BPOs: Ships, modules, rigs, drones, ammo, probes, components and capital mods, drones & ammo. (Cap Ships, Cap Components and Outposts 2007/2008) |
Dominique Vasilkovsky
Techmart Industries
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Posted - 2007.05.17 11:58:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Gaogan So wouldn't you be an idiot to use anything other than the +30% chance one?
Possibly.
There are two approches for ship invention:
High probability / high cost
Max run BPC Ship as meta item +30% 4-run decryptor
Each attempt cost a lot, and you have 20-25% chance to get a 5 run BPC
Low probability / low cost
1-run BPC -60% 9-run decryptor
Each attempt is really cheap so you can do quite a few more attempts compared to the one above. You have 8-11% chance to get a 9-run BPC.
It's up to you which approach you want to follow but I have now invented 12 9-run ship BPCs in 111 attempts.
Btw, my record is 24 consecutive fails so your 6 fails is just a bad start.
Signature Your signature has been removed due to a lack of EVE related content. -Darth Patches
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Kdah
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Posted - 2007.05.17 14:42:00 -
[38]
Edited by: Kdah on 17/05/2007 14:41:02 Ittey, your formula for number of runs produced seems to be incorrect.
You say it's:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC*MaxRunsOutputBPC + DecryptorBonusRuns))
Shouldn't the DecryptorBonusRuns be outside the parenthesis?
When you give the example, you put it outside of the parenthesis:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(1000/10*1000)) + 4
And, in that example you have the order of the variables wrong. It should be:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(1000/1000*10)) + 4
Also, if what Dominique says above is true, then your Max() function is wrong. If the Max() were correct, then the least number of runs you could get on a BPC with no decryptor would be 1. Max(1,anything-below-1) = 1
And yet Dominique says that when she uses the 9-Bonus-Run decryptor with a minimum run BPC, she gets only 9 runs on the resulting invented T2 BPC. That would indicate that the Max() function isn't working.
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Kdah
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Posted - 2007.05.17 14:51:00 -
[39]
Ok, I think I know what the problem is. The formula should read:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC*MaxRunsOutputBPC) + DecryptorBonusRuns)
That makes sure that you always end up with at least one run, but if you use a decryptor with bonus runs and a low-run BPC, you can end up with only the bonus runs on the resulting BPC.
Your example should then read:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(1000/1000*10) + 4)
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Qual
Gallente Cornexant Research
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Posted - 2007.05.17 21:26:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Kdah Ok, I think I know what the problem is. The formula should read:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(ActualRunsInputBPC/MaxRunsInputBPC*MaxRunsOutputBPC) + DecryptorBonusRuns)
That makes sure that you always end up with at least one run, but if you use a decryptor with bonus runs and a low-run BPC, you can end up with only the bonus runs on the resulting BPC.
Your example should then read:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(1000/1000*10) + 4)
I guess I am to blame for that error. And you are of course right. Good catch!
"The short version: Qual is right." -Papa Smurf |
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Lady Rachel
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Posted - 2007.05.22 13:58:00 -
[41]
Edited by: Lady Rachel on 22/05/2007 13:57:17 someone has a list where is described to the several the date interfacewho invention can make? example esoteric data interface: all missile lounchers, ballistic control sistem, all railguns,à.
tnx
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Gaogan
Gallente Solar Storm
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Posted - 2007.05.23 01:47:00 -
[42]
How the hell are you supposed to make money inventing ships when you fail 90% of the attempts? Especially ones larger than frigs that take a lot of data cores? Isn't it bad enough that you only get a 1 run bpc out of it, and they take a lot of cores? Why should they also have a horrible chance of success?
Take occators, which are still fairly high price items. At 8 data cores per attempt, you are looking at an approximate cost of 30 million isk per attempt. If it takes 10 tries to get a 4 run bpc, that's a per run cost of 75 million isk, which is about what they sell for, which is at least 3 times what they should cost.
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Dominique Vasilkovsky
Techmart Industries
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Posted - 2007.05.23 08:58:00 -
[43]
Originally by: Gaogan How the hell are you supposed to make money inventing ships when you fail 90% of the attempts? Especially ones larger than frigs that take a lot of data cores? Isn't it bad enough that you only get a 1 run bpc out of it, and they take a lot of cores? Why should they also have a horrible chance of success?
Take occators, which are still fairly high price items. At 8 data cores per attempt, you are looking at an approximate cost of 30 million isk per attempt. If it takes 10 tries to get a 4 run bpc, that's a per run cost of 75 million isk, which is about what they sell for, which is at least 3 times what they should cost.
With the best chance decryptor you should have about 25% chance to get a 4-5 run bpc depending if you use max run BPC or not.
From personal experience of inventing Hulks, 111 runs of Covetor BPCs became 108 runs of Hulk BPCs using the max run decryptor. That means if you do enough inventions the Occators will cost 30-35M per run to invent.
Signature approved by Eldo |
Ittey
Rayden Industries
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Posted - 2007.05.24 22:01:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Zhuge Liang Good stuff, sticked with an unholy amount of glue.
Yay, my first sticky thread here.
Just a small update this time, fixed the typo in the Runs formula and added negative ME to the advanced page.
Originally by: Qual Noticed you where looking for info on negtive ME as well, I did that formula some time ago here.
Added.
Originally by: Kdah Your example should then read:
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(1000/1000*10) + 4)
Fixed, good catch indeed.
That is pretty much it, will be a while before I can make another edit so hope this will do. ---------------------------------------------- My invention guide: here |
Chrome Ozone
Serenity Inc
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Posted - 2007.05.25 16:59:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Kdah Your example should then read: Runs = max(1;Round.Down(1000/1000*10) + 4)
Fixed, good catch indeed.
Ok, I'm struggling to understand here. I took a 7 run ferox bpc, and with a +4 decryptor, got a 6 run nighthawk print. By the math from the guide it should look like
Runs = max(1;Round.Down(7/15*1)+4)= 4(after rounding)
I'm curious if anyone else has ever tried running a non-max bpc...something I did notice, if I switched the division, i.e. (15*1/7)+4 you actually get 6 after rounding down, BUT put in a max run so (15*1/15)+ 4, and you get 5. I'm throughly confused.
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Frigid
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Posted - 2007.05.28 15:55:00 -
[46]
Good stuff!
One comment, you say in the skills section that the starship engineering skills are under Mechanic. Not so. All the datacore skills are science skills.
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Phedra Kane
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Posted - 2007.05.28 17:02:00 -
[47]
so, on current economics, I think i've worked out that unless you want to invent very high value items, like T2 cruisers/BCs, then its not worth the effort. I was looking at inventing TII ship modules, retailing for 3-4m each. However, besides the cost of datacores, with the encryption skill going at 200mill, there is no chance of gaining a profit in any reasonable timescale.
Is this conclusion correct?
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Anopheli
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2007.05.28 18:18:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Phedra Kane so, on current economics, I think i've worked out that unless you want to invent very high value items, like T2 cruisers/BCs, then its not worth the effort. I was looking at inventing TII ship modules, retailing for 3-4m each. However, besides the cost of datacores, with the encryption skill going at 200mill, there is no chance of gaining a profit in any reasonable timescale.
Is this conclusion correct?
Not true. I've run up about a few hundred million profit in around a week. Modules have a much higher success rate than ships, and the key is not using decryptors on low value items, and seeking out things you can manufacture easily. Also avoiding modules that use Mechanical Engineering cores, as that's a good way to start flushing mountains of cash.
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Sir Bart
Vendetta Underground Rule of Three
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Posted - 2007.05.28 18:30:00 -
[49]
Why do you need to create a max run BPC? I thought BPO's could be used... surely a BPO doesn't give worse results than a max run BPC?
-Bart CCP: please fix the asteroids in the new regions.
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Hafthor
Gallente The Fated
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Posted - 2007.05.28 23:01:00 -
[50]
Any chance of adding RP's needed per Datacore info into this? I've been scouring the forums for this info but failed miserably.
-------------------------- "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" |
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Sir Bart
Vendetta Underground Rule of Three
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Posted - 2007.05.29 05:37:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Hafthor Any chance of adding RP's needed per Datacore info into this? I've been scouring the forums for this info but failed miserably.
100 rp for ship ones and 50 rp for the rest. CCP: please fix the asteroids in the new regions.
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Vanye Inovske
Two Brothers Mining Corp. The Sundering
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Posted - 2007.05.31 03:37:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Sir Bart
Originally by: Hafthor Any chance of adding RP's needed per Datacore info into this? I've been scouring the forums for this info but failed miserably.
100 rp for ship ones and 50 rp for the rest.
Graviton Physics is 100/core as well. There may be others, I have no idea.
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Chruker
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Posted - 2007.06.04 11:26:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Lady Rachel Edited by: Lady Rachel on 22/05/2007 13:57:17 someone has a list where is described to the several the date interfacewho invention can make? example esoteric data interface: all missile lounchers, ballistic control sistem, all railguns,à.
tnx
You can see it in my item database. Ex. http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?typeID=25555 ----- http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online ----- Top wishes: - No daily downtime - Faster training on sisi - Updated data export - Speedup IGB table rendering |
Mycroft Kencyrath
Gallente Starjacker Heavy Industries
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Posted - 2007.06.04 22:33:00 -
[54]
Edited by: Mycroft Kencyrath on 04/06/2007 22:35:34 Edited by: Mycroft Kencyrath on 04/06/2007 22:35:00 Very Nice.
"Are you an angel? Aw, I'm just kidding. That's the worst line I've ever used. Hope some poor kid doesn't start using it." -Atton Rand
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Magwua
Amarr Rayden Industries
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Posted - 2007.06.05 23:14:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Sir Bart Why do you need to create a max run BPC? I thought BPO's could be used... surely a BPO doesn't give worse results than a max run BPC?
-Bart
You cannot use a BPO to invent t2 goods, you must use a t1 bpc.
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Dr Bernard
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Posted - 2007.06.12 20:20:00 -
[56]
Great work.
Just 1 clarification. The MaxRunsOutputBPC you mention for ships is 1 and modules 10. Are there additional stats for other bp types ? If it is the case that it is always 1 for ships (ignoring the decryptor bonus), why would you ever need to use max runs when making your BPO copy ?
Thx
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Risar Surtr
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Posted - 2007.06.13 02:32:00 -
[57]
Edited by: Risar Surtr on 13/06/2007 02:32:21
Originally by: Dr Bernard Edited by: Dr Bernard on 12/06/2007 20:26:09 Great work.
Just 1 clarification. The MaxRunsOutputBPC you mention for ships is 1 and modules 10. Are there additional stats for other bp types ? If it is the case that it is always 1 for ships then if I invent without decryptors, I only need to create 1 run inpt bpcs ? If I use a decryptor then I should always use max runs on the input bpc otherwise I will essentially lose 1 run in the output ?
Thx
I'm sorta confused about this myself honestly. Is the max number of runs on a "invented" T2 bpc really so small ? It seems like in order to "invent" a T2 frigate or HAC (for example) that your going to have to spend 30-40m just to get a result, and a 1 run result at that ? After the cost of supplies to build the silly thing your not going to see much (if any) profit it would seem. Its almost like just doing bulk T1 manufacturing is more profitable for the time spent.
Its almost like invention isnt meant to be a way to make isk, but more of a way to create the things you need for your own use.
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luain
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Posted - 2007.06.19 15:35:00 -
[58]
2nd attempt ship invention used 1 Vexor Ship, 1x 5 run Vexor BPC, 1x Test Reports Decryptor and 8x each Mech Eng,& Gallente Starship Eng Data Cores and got a 1 run Ishtar BPC....Was told T1 item did not improve results so repeated attempt 3 times without Vexor Ship...Result No Success...then tried twice more using Vexor Ship as optional item...no success....Question does the T1 Item have any effect on result?
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Trak Cranker
Feral Tendency Ratel Alliance
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Posted - 2007.06.21 09:28:00 -
[59]
It would be very strange if it didn't.
As you can see the exact formula is still up in the air, but I can hardly imagine that the metalevel of the T1 item does not play into it.
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Tamori Kachimasu
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Posted - 2007.06.21 13:28:00 -
[60]
After some tries, I have following results (twice so much) :
Type : Frigate Input : 30run BPC Basetype item : T1 Frigate Decryptor : None Result : _1_ run BPC.
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