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Cade Windstalker
1215
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Posted - 2017.04.03 20:16:36 -
[301] - Quote
Girka Kring wrote:Why are you linking your own post? Just read what others already wrote about this. What caused the shift in supply? Again, read the topic. Confidential info that leaked caused the shift in both demand and supply. Ppl who knew that PLEX will be 20% more expensive in a few days decided either to not sell PLEX and wait or to buy PLEX when they are still cheap. Obviously. It seems like you assume there was neither demand, nor supply changed. I'm really curious how do you explain 20% higher prices with same volume. That's right, you don't.
Okay the fact that this idea is still holding on to dear life is mildly insulting to the intelligence of this entire community. Eve is supposed to be a game of people who are *good* at economics and rational thinking.
First off, you still have no evidence of any leak, or of any kind of insider trading. As half this thread has pointed out to you the announced PLEX changes will push prices down and you've been able to point to nothing that's actually driving prices up, let alone a connection beyond a vague one in time to the current rise in prices.
As for the actual economics, I've pulled some data from our dear Fuzzysteve's site going back to October of last year, before the Ascension patch hit and the price dropped in the first place. This seems like a good time to reitterate that patches tend to send the price of PLEX running off in one direction or another as people react to the patch.
I took that data, pasted it into a spreadsheet, and calculated a 7 day rolling average for volume, Average Price, and number of orders. I then normalized the price down to thousands of ISK so it would display nicely on the same graph with the quantities and number of orders.
This is the graph that produced.
Note how the Average Price goes up and down more or less inversely with the number of orders and the volume of PLEX being bought and sold on the market.
This shows that Supply and Demand are working normally, this whole wonky theory that Supply hasn't changed is bunk, and a drop in supply is *very clearly* driving the spike in prices.
This is why we graph things and check our assumptions instead of just eyeballing some tiny little volume lines and deciding they look about the same. |
Mr Epeen
It's All About Me
10699
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Posted - 2017.04.03 20:27:27 -
[302] - Quote
PLEX prices fluctuate based on the same concerns and emotions that cause fluctuations in the real life marketplace.
Greed, panic, fear, ignorance, idiocy, etc.
This thread has probably done more to shift buying patterns than anything the CSM did.
Mr Epeen
There are 86,400 seconds in a day. You just saved one of them by typing 'u' instead of 'you'.-á Congratulations, dumbass!
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Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6306
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Posted - 2017.04.03 20:56:52 -
[303] - Quote
Mr Epeen wrote:PLEX prices fluctuate based on the same concerns and emotions that cause fluctuations in the real life marketplace. Greed, panic, fear, ignorance, idiocy, etc. This thread has probably done more to shift buying patterns than anything the CSM did. Mr Epeen
I was wondering that too.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
6593
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Posted - 2017.04.03 23:02:17 -
[304] - Quote
Piugattuk wrote:Speculation happens, corruption happens, CSM is only good for those big alliances, the general public as always is left paying the bill, not much we can do doo. Well, you could always vote for someone.
It's entirely possible for someone to be elected without the support of a big alliance.
Woo! CSM XI!
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter
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Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6311
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Posted - 2017.04.04 06:17:36 -
[305] - Quote
Well, I must have talked some sense into the conspirators or something, looks like they might be abandoning their grand scheme of cornering the PLEX market or whatever it was, prices appear to have stopped going up and are down about 6 million ISK from last time I checked.
[/sarcasm]
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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March rabbit
Mosquito Squadron The-Culture
2122
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Posted - 2017.04.04 06:36:26 -
[306] - Quote
Steve Ronuken wrote:Piugattuk wrote:Speculation happens, corruption happens, CSM is only good for those big alliances, the general public as always is left paying the bill, not much we can do doo. Well, you could always vote for someone. ... who might be another face for the same "big alliance".
The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
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Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6311
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Posted - 2017.04.04 06:37:25 -
[307] - Quote
March rabbit wrote:Steve Ronuken wrote:Piugattuk wrote:Speculation happens, corruption happens, CSM is only good for those big alliances, the general public as always is left paying the bill, not much we can do doo. Well, you could always vote for someone. ... who might be another face for the same "big alliance".
I keep saying, like how voting mechanisms are supposed to work....
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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Brigadine Ferathine
The Valiant Vanguard The Volition Cult
171
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Posted - 2017.04.04 15:50:29 -
[308] - Quote
Sullen Decimus wrote:This entire thread is ******* hilarious. You're literally spewing **** while shooting yourself in the foot for your own arguments you're presenting. Before I get to that though if we leaked anything why the hell wouldn't we have done it months ago? We were never informed when this dev blog was even going up. So there is no way we would have known about it going up the days leading up. Now how your'e literally wrong and proved it yourself. This image has been linked in the forum already http://i.imgur.com/69fHmVs.png You point to the 20% increase as us buying up the market. Here's the thing. see those blue bars across the bottom? Those are the daily volume traded. Notice how it literally didn't change at all during the increase. It actually had a small decrease! So you're argument is shot. There is no backing of it at all. In fact, it supports we didn't leak anything because the market volume didn't change at all. PLEX is known to have waterfall effects in it's price so if anything it's much more likely plex sellers started to see the price going up (from natural market fluctuation) and decided to hold their plex while it was rising as any knowledgeable market person would do. This happens all the time in this market. Also IF WE DID leak anything, plex is one of the single easiest items to track. Our accounts/alts are the most scrutinized in the game. Even if we told friends about it to get a benefit that **** is easy to track. Your argument is dead. Leave it in the grave and lay off the conspiracy koolaide awhile. Like you would be dumb enough to do it in game... Every spy knows you use exterior comms to do things like that. You lashing out just makes me more suspicious. |
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
127
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Posted - 2017.04.04 16:53:38 -
[309] - Quote
Brigadine Ferathine wrote:Like you would be dumb enough to do it in game... Every spy knows you use exterior comms to do things like that. You lashing out just makes me more suspicious.
I find your finger pointing to be even more suspicious. As they say, "Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations." I always get suspicious when people make accusations without evidence of any kind. You're clearly trying to create a smokescreen to hide something. |
Cade Windstalker
1227
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Posted - 2017.04.05 03:07:14 -
[310] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:Brigadine Ferathine wrote:Like you would be dumb enough to do it in game... Every spy knows you use exterior comms to do things like that. You lashing out just makes me more suspicious. I find your finger pointing to be even more suspicious. As they say, "Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations." I always get suspicious when people make accusations without evidence of any kind. You're clearly trying to create a smokescreen to hide something.
The irony is strong with this post... |
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Salvos Rhoska
2663
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Posted - 2017.04.05 07:20:04 -
[311] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:How about 15 pages of analysis demonstrating that there is no logic or economic rationale for blaming the spike on insider trading? . Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike.
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Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6344
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Posted - 2017.04.05 07:45:50 -
[312] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:How about 15 pages of analysis demonstrating that there is no logic or economic rationale for blaming the spike on insider trading? . Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike. For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak.
There is no reason to believe other than "It might have happened." That is really really thin. You could say that pretty much of every CSM. Lets put them under continuous investigation.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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Salvos Rhoska
2663
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Posted - 2017.04.05 07:53:52 -
[313] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:How about 15 pages of analysis demonstrating that there is no logic or economic rationale for blaming the spike on insider trading? . Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike. For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak. There is no reason to believe other than "It might have happened." That is really really thin. You could say that pretty much of every CSM. Lets put them under continuous investigation.
Not an issue of belief. The issue is its a real and constant risk regarding all inside info CCP shares with CSM. No need for constant investigation, just oversight and vigilance.
Its a rare person that has never revealed a secret whilst drunk, unwary or for personal benefit.
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Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6344
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Posted - 2017.04.05 08:02:38 -
[314] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:How about 15 pages of analysis demonstrating that there is no logic or economic rationale for blaming the spike on insider trading? . Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike. For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak. There is no reason to believe other than "It might have happened." That is really really thin. You could say that pretty much of every CSM. Lets put them under continuous investigation. Not an issue of belief. The issue is its a real and constant risk regarding all inside info CCP shares with CSM. No need for constant investigation, just oversight and vigilance. Its a rare person that has never revealed a secret whilst drunk, unwary or for personal benefit.
As noted already, the CSM accounts are already highly scrutinized. Seems reasonable to me that CCP would do that for CSM members.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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Salvos Rhoska
2667
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Posted - 2017.04.05 08:29:08 -
[315] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:As noted already, the CSM accounts are already highly scrutinized. Seems reasonable to me that CCP would do that for CSM members.
I hope so.
Trust no one in EVE, that includes CSMs, even moreso.
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Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6344
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Posted - 2017.04.05 08:30:00 -
[316] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Teckos Pech wrote:As noted already, the CSM accounts are already highly scrutinized. Seems reasonable to me that CCP would do that for CSM members. I hope so. Trust no one in EVE, that includes CSMs, even moreso.
Well of course.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
131
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Posted - 2017.04.05 14:03:09 -
[317] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:How about 15 pages of analysis demonstrating that there is no logic or economic rationale for blaming the spike on insider trading? . Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike. For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak.
Had info been leaked to you or me, we also would have sold PLEX, driving the price down - not bought it up. That's the logical disconnect in the leak theory that you're simply refusing to accept. Prices did spike, but there wasn't anything in the announcement that would have led anyone to believe that they would. |
Salvos Rhoska
2678
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Posted - 2017.04.05 15:29:12 -
[318] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:How about 15 pages of analysis demonstrating that there is no logic or economic rationale for blaming the spike on insider trading? . Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike. For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak. Had info been leaked to you or me, we also would have sold PLEX, driving the price down - not bought it up. That's the logical disconnect in the leak theory that you're simply refusing to accept. Prices did spike, but there wasn't anything in the announcement that would have led anyone to believe that they would.
I would have bought it, not sold it.
If I had trillions, I would have bought PLEX at 1bil as it was to no end.
Having a bank of x/500 units of PLEX is much better than a single PLEX. Allows me to compete per unit, rather than per lump PLEX. I can -0.01isk much more efficiently, whilst players fight to get 500 PLEX units for sub.
Also, as a smaller operator, that I can sell only as much PLEX as I need in isk, rather than selling it all at once.
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Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
131
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Posted - 2017.04.05 15:49:19 -
[319] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:I would have bought it, not sold it.
If I had trillions, I would have bought PLEX at 1bil as it was to no end.
Having a bank of x/500 units of PLEX is much better than a single PLEX. Allows me to compete per unit, rather than per lump PLEX. I can -0.01isk much more efficiently, whilst players fight to get 500 PLEX units for sub.
Also, as a smaller operator, that I can sell only as much PLEX as I need in isk, rather than selling it all at once.
Stock splits in the stock market (which is basically what this is) demonstrate that such a theory is misguided. No broker, analyst or financial advisor recommends buying stock before a split. They also don't recommend against it because they have decades worth of data proving that it makes no difference either way. There has never been a real life example of insider trading based on prior knowledge of a stock split announcement because that information alone is largely useless.
Not to mention that any perceived advantage would be negated by the other elements announced by CCP (Aurum conversion and PLEX Lockers) which will increase the supply of PLEX on the market, which will drive prices down. |
Salvos Rhoska
2679
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Posted - 2017.04.05 16:03:35 -
[320] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:I would have bought it, not sold it.
If I had trillions, I would have bought PLEX at 1bil as it was to no end.
Having a bank of x/500 units of PLEX is much better than a single PLEX. Allows me to compete per unit, rather than per lump PLEX. I can -0.01isk much more efficiently, whilst players fight to get 500 PLEX units for sub.
Also, as a smaller operator, that I can sell only as much PLEX as I need in isk, rather than selling it all at once. Stock splits in the stock market (which is basically what this is) demonstrate that such a theory is misguided. No broker, analyst or financial advisor recommends buying stock before a split. They also don't recommend against it because they have decades worth of data proving that it makes no difference either way. There has never been a real life example of insider trading based on prior knowledge of a stock split announcement because that information alone is largely useless. Not to mention that any perceived advantage would be negated by the other elements announced by CCP (Aurum conversion and PLEX Lockers) which will increase the supply of PLEX on the market, which will drive prices down.
A) Stocksplits are almost always followed by greater net dividends. I have made a lot of money on that. (Not to mention an ideal moment to buy up the split stock cheap)
B) The announcement came after the spike.
C) It is far better to have 500 units that comprise a service in total, than a single unit.
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Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
131
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Posted - 2017.04.05 17:02:40 -
[321] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote: A) Stocksplits are almost always followed by greater net dividends. I have made a lot of money on that. (Not to mention an ideal moment to buy up the split stock cheap)
B) The announcement came after the spike.
C) It is far better to have 500 units that comprise a service in total, than a single unit. Its far easier to sell x/500, than 500, and far easier to find markets that will buy less at a time (albeit at a mark up).
A. Wow...no. You're talking out of your ass now. You just firmly demonstrated that you don't have the first clue what you're talking about. The dividend is always split along with the stock! ALWAYS. That's money that comes directly from the company so they always endeavor to keep the total payout flat. You don't make extra money on dividends after a split. Not ever. There's also the little matter of the fact that PLEX doesn't pay dividends, so it has no bearing on this discussion anyway. So not only is it a blatant lie that you made money that way, it's a useless lie. Stick to flawed logic - at least you can be wrong with some honor that way.
B. Exactly. The spike had NOTHING to do with the announcement.
C. That part is the only true thing you've said. Stocks split to bring smaller investors on board. But it doesn't drive prices up. Smaller units only have the affect of binging more people into the market, thus increasing volume. But that volume still follows the same market trends. More shares tend to smooth out the peaks and valleys, but they don't drive it one way or the other.
I continue to be amazed that against all facts, against all logic and against all evidence, there are some people who insist on continuing to follow this ridiculous insider trading conspiracy theory. It seems we truly do exist in a post-fact society in which the only thing driving beliefs are pre-existing beliefs. |
Teckos Pech
Amok. Goonswarm Federation
6347
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Posted - 2017.04.05 19:17:57 -
[322] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:
A. Wow...no. You're talking out of your ass now. You just firmly demonstrated that you don't have the first clue what you're talking about. The dividend is always split along with the stock! ALWAYS. That's money that comes directly from the company so they always endeavor to keep the total payout flat. You don't make extra money on dividends after a split. Not ever. There's also the little matter of the fact that PLEX doesn't pay dividends, so it has no bearing on this discussion anyway. So not only is it a blatant lie that you made money that way, it's a useless lie. Stick to flawed logic - at least you can be wrong with some honor that way.
Don't you have a ceterius paribus assumption there? All other things equal, dividend split = stock split.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek
8 Golden Rules for EVE Online
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Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
131
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Posted - 2017.04.05 20:19:51 -
[323] - Quote
Teckos Pech wrote:Don't you have a ceterius paribus assumption there? All other things equal, dividend split = stock split.
Well, in theory it doesn't have to. If a company has, let's say, 1,000,000 shares outstanding and is paying a cash dividend of $1.00 per share (or an equivalent stock dividend), that's $1m in dividends. If they announce a 2:1 stock split that increases available shares to 2m, they CAN continue the same $1 dividend policy, but that then costs them a total of $2m in dividend payments. So the reality is that they always split the dividend yield at the same rate as the stock split to maintain a level payout (in this example the yield would drop to $0.50). But splitting the stock shares and splitting the dividend yield are still two independent actions. In many cases, company bylaws even require the board to vote on them separately even though they're linked. |
Salvos Rhoska
2685
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Posted - 2017.04.06 07:30:42 -
[324] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:A. Wow...no. You're talking out of your ass now. You just firmly demonstrated that you don't have the first clue what you're talking about. The dividend is always split along with the stock! ALWAYS. That's money that comes directly from the company so they always endeavor to keep the total payout flat. You don't make extra money on dividends after a split. Not ever.
You misread.
I was saying that concurrent to stock splits, company boards very often vote for a greater dividend payout per unit.
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Lamajagarn McMyra
No Vacancies No Vacancies.
20
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Posted - 2017.04.06 13:47:56 -
[325] - Quote
I believe more in the rorqual nerf theory and general inflation rather than some insider leak. Judging by the last economy report: http://cdn1.eveonline.com/community/MER/Feb_2017/9aaa_top.sinks.faucets.over.time.png it to me looks like the average monthly isk generation has increased explosively compared to the sinks, as more isk is injected the value of isk to real world currency obviously decreases.
Save us CCP Fozzie, ratting is way to safe! |
Cade Windstalker
1239
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Posted - 2017.04.06 13:52:19 -
[326] - Quote
Lamajagarn McMyra wrote:I believe more in the rorqual nerf theory and general inflation rather than some insider leak. Judging by the last economy report: http://cdn1.eveonline.com/community/MER/Feb_2017/9aaa_top.sinks.faucets.over.time.png it to me looks like the average monthly isk generation has increased explosively compared to the sinks, as more isk is injected the value of isk to real world currency obviously decreases. Save us CCP Fozzie, ratting is way to safe!
Actually if you'd care to take a look at the rest of the MER you'll note that while ISK generated from ratting is up over that same period the actual money supply was relatively flat especially compared to historical trends. So while it's not intuitive from those graphs sinks and faucets are actually more in balance now than they've ever been, at least in the last five years or so.
This is probably at least in part due to the tax and Broker fee changes introduced with Citadel that have been taking a larger percentage of each transaction out of the economy. |
Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
132
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Posted - 2017.04.06 14:08:30 -
[327] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:A. Wow...no. You're talking out of your ass now. You just firmly demonstrated that you don't have the first clue what you're talking about. The dividend is always split along with the stock! ALWAYS. That's money that comes directly from the company so they always endeavor to keep the total payout flat. You don't make extra money on dividends after a split. Not ever. A) You misread. I was saying that concurrent to stock splits, company boards very often vote for a greater dividend payout per unit. B) The spike apparently came concurrent to CSM being informed of the changes launch day. D) CSM are EVE players. I dont trust them anymore than I do you. Golden Rule applies.
A. BS. That's extraordinarily rare because it further muddies some already muddy accounting numbers around splits. I can't think of a single example. Name one company in the past 10 years that has announced a dividend increase that took effect at the same time as a split. Of course if you made so much money off of it, you should be able to give several examples.
Not to mention that they lock in the share record dates to prevent people from profiting off of it.
And also, once again PLEX doesn't have dividends so this particular point is meaningless to begin with. Please explain how dividends have anything to do with this topic.
B. You're mixing correlation and causality and then throwing in a healthy dose of circular reasoning. You can't point to a causal connection that makes any sense.
Insider trading only works if you KNOW with certainty how the market is going to react to the news. The fact that we're even debating this demonstrates that such a causal connection doesn't exist. With advance knowledge of the announcement, you say you'd buy, I say I'd sell. We cancel each other out. That doesn't drive a demand spike.
D. Nor should you. But villainizing the CSMs or CCP without evidence or at least a logical argument is worse. This is just nonsensical hysteria. |
Salvos Rhoska
2686
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Posted - 2017.04.06 14:14:25 -
[328] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:A. Wow...no. You're talking out of your ass now. You just firmly demonstrated that you don't have the first clue what you're talking about. The dividend is always split along with the stock! ALWAYS. That's money that comes directly from the company so they always endeavor to keep the total payout flat. You don't make extra money on dividends after a split. Not ever. A) You misread. I was saying that concurrent to stock splits, company boards very often vote for a greater dividend payout per unit. B) The spike apparently came concurrent to CSM being informed of the changes launch day. D) CSM are EVE players. I dont trust them anymore than I do you. Golden Rule applies. A. BS. That's extraordinarily rare because it further muddies some already muddy accounting numbers around splits. I can't think of a single example. Name one company in the past 10 years that has announced a dividend increase that took effect at the same time as a split. Of course if you made so much money off of it, you should be able to give several examples. Not to mention that they lock in the share record dates to prevent people from profiting off of it. And also, once again PLEX doesn't have dividends so this particular point is meaningless to begin with. Please explain how dividends have anything to do with this topic. B. You're mixing correlation and causality and then throwing in a healthy dose of circular reasoning. You can't point to a causal connection that makes any sense. Insider trading only works if you KNOW with certainty how the market is going to react to the news. The fact that we're even debating this demonstrates that such a causal connection doesn't exist. With advance knowledge of the announcement, you say you'd buy, I say I'd sell. We cancel each other out. That doesn't drive a demand spike. D. Nor should you. But villainizing the CSMs or CCP without evidence or at least a logical argument is worse. This is just nonsensical hysteria.
A) W+ñrtsil+ñ
B) The spike coincided with the time that CSMs apparently where told the change would be implemented. The market did not know about it.
D) No "villianization". Just a call for investigation of whether CSM are leaking information.
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Zarek Kree
Lunatic Legion Holdings
132
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Posted - 2017.04.06 14:54:15 -
[329] - Quote
Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:Salvos Rhoska wrote:Zarek Kree wrote:A. Wow...no. You're talking out of your ass now. You just firmly demonstrated that you don't have the first clue what you're talking about. The dividend is always split along with the stock! ALWAYS. That's money that comes directly from the company so they always endeavor to keep the total payout flat. You don't make extra money on dividends after a split. Not ever. A) You misread. I was saying that concurrent to stock splits, company boards very often vote for a greater dividend payout per unit. B) The spike apparently came concurrent to CSM being informed of the changes launch day. D) CSM are EVE players. I dont trust them anymore than I do you. Golden Rule applies. A. BS. That's extraordinarily rare because it further muddies some already muddy accounting numbers around splits. I can't think of a single example. Name one company in the past 10 years that has announced a dividend increase that took effect at the same time as a split. Of course if you made so much money off of it, you should be able to give several examples. Not to mention that they lock in the share record dates to prevent people from profiting off of it. And also, once again PLEX doesn't have dividends so this particular point is meaningless to begin with. Please explain how dividends have anything to do with this topic. B. You're mixing correlation and causality and then throwing in a healthy dose of circular reasoning. You can't point to a causal connection that makes any sense. Insider trading only works if you KNOW with certainty how the market is going to react to the news. The fact that we're even debating this demonstrates that such a causal connection doesn't exist. With advance knowledge of the announcement, you say you'd buy, I say I'd sell. We cancel each other out. That doesn't drive a demand spike. D. Nor should you. But villainizing the CSMs or CCP without evidence or at least a logical argument is worse. This is just nonsensical hysteria. A) W+ñrtsil+ñ Plex pays no dividends not did I claim it did. The point of stock splits and decisions on dividends was pertinent to insider information IRL, as raised by you in the post to which I was responding. You started talking about IRL rather than PLEX, not I. I simply responded to that. B) The spike coincided with the time that CSMs apparently where told the change would be implemented. The market did not know about it. D) No "villianization". Just a call for investigation of whether CSM are leaking information.
A. Except that was a one-time extraordinary dividend that paid out in 2011 based on PRE-SPLIT share holdings. The ordinary dividend was held constant and then split along with the shares. There was no additional money to be gained buying up shares before the split.
You can in fact make money IRL with insider information about a dividend yield increase or an extraordinary dividend payout because you can get in before the record date. But you CAN'T make money with insider information about a stock split. This announcement by CCP was effectively announcing a stock split - that's not something you can make money on IRL or in the game.
The other elements of the announcement (Aurum conversion and PLEX Locker) CAN drive the market - but only down.
B. You're missing my point. Let me type slowly so that you can follow: If you and I are both CSMs and we know this announcement is coming, you decide to buy up a bunch of PLEX based on ??????. But I decide to sell all of my PLEX holdings because I think this is going to cause the PLEX market to decline over the long-term. All other things being equal, we cancel each other out. That advance notice didn't drive the market one way or the other because we disagree on its expected effect and take opposite actions. |
Salvos Rhoska
2689
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Posted - 2017.04.06 19:37:11 -
[330] - Quote
Zarek Kree wrote:If you and I are both CSMs and we know this announcement is coming, you decide to buy up a bunch of PLEX based on ??????. But I decide to sell all of my PLEX holdings because I think this is going to cause the PLEX market to decline over the long-term. All other things being equal, we cancel each other out. That advance notice didn't drive the market one way or the other because we disagree on its expected effect and take opposite actions.
This isnt about CSMs having taken market action on PLEX as a result of what they knew.
Its about the possibility that information may have been leaked by CSM.
Do you see the difference?
The timing of the spike is suspect.
As in your previous post, you stated that insider information only works if you can with certainty predict how the market will react.
This spike happened BEFORE the announcement was made public, before the market knew/reacted, and apparently concurrently with this being revealed to CSM internally.
Furthermore, this notion that you and I would cancel each other out, contravenes your statement above. If we both know, and only you and I know, what will happen before the market knows it (insider info), and know with certainty how the market will react, why would we choose differently?
As privy to that insider info, and certain prediction of how the market will react, in advance, we will ofc both opt for the same choice of action. We will not cancel each other.
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