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TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
    |
Posted - 2007.05.28 19:41:00 -
[31]
 Originally by: Heikki
IMHO the current system has far too much hassle compared to modern methods. Yet if BIG opts to hold on it due historic reasons.
This one actually deserves a comment as well.
There is one reason, and one reason alone, for why the lottery draw is conducted as it is.
Namely : To make the drawing (more) fun.
The drawing itself is more than just a draw, it's a show, it's entertainment, it's a time for relaxing and fooling around a bit, generally having a good time.
The reason for me thinking up the system, we are using, is that I simply didnt want to do a "Lets press the button and see who wins" scenario (or use some out of game numbers)
I wanted (and want) people to be active participants in the drawing, and not just sitting on the sideline waiting for the winners name to be posted.
I want it to be an "event".
An active event, that you can partake in (or not).
Hence I thought up the method of having the participants themself beeing the "random number generator".
And for 105 times this has worked like a charm - Lots of fun is beeing had for the approx 1 hour a drawing lasts.
 BIG Lottery
[url |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 20:09:00 -
[32]
Originally by: TornSoul
If you believe someone can control internet lag, then you dont really need to read on, and we will simply have to agree to disagree on that beeing possible.
This statement is a bit broken; I can control my own lag by moving closer to the endpoint of my data's travels, and I can control others' lag by means of DoS or manipulating QoS or service provisioning data at their ISP level. As a more-practical example, I could open conversations with every non-conspiring person in the channel just before "the starting gun is fired", if you will. This will lag them out, produce a modal window preventing them from entering a number, and/or switch them to a different tab. Any one of those would be sufficient to deny them the capability to get their number in first.
Originally by: TornSoul
Lets do some math to try and understand just how unlikely this suggested scenario of yours is.
Lets ignore beeing able to control internet lag (which I say not you or anyone else can do), and simply rely on statistical chance of beeing able to get the first numbers into the channel.
Lets assume 25 ppl are posting numbers into the channel
Lets use the first 5 numbers for the math to determine the winner.
This means, you (and your bots/friends) will have to be the ones entering the first 5 numbers (to control the outcome).
By pure chance, what are the chance of your 5 numbers beeing the first ones out of the 25 numbers?
The result is : 1/25*1/24*1/23*1/22*1/21 = 1/6.375.600
(this number will ofc vary from draw to draw, but not in any significant way - On a "bad" day I guess it could be halfed)
Your math is a bit broken. The number you're looking for is based on combinations, not permutations; i.e., it doesn't matter what order my 5 guys get their number in, so long as each of them gets it in before anyone else does. On a "bad" day, with 12 people in channel, that means I have a 1-in-792 chance of being every single one of the first five. As I mentioned in my original post, with a little creative statistics, I don't mind too much if someone else gets in a number edgewise, as which point my probability gets very close to 1/100.
Originally by: TornSoul
[s]So in other words, if you did this 6.375.600 times you would, by pure chance, be able to control the outcome once and thus win.
(we will never have that many draws ofc...)
Now, one ticket costs 1000 ISK... So that would be an "investment" of 6.4B ISK - To win what?
Current top prize is 1B ISK....
-----
Lets look at what the chances are of winning on a ticket (without trying to rig anything)
Currently the chance of *one* ticket winning (most buy around 1K or 5K tickets though) is around 1/1.500.000 (number of tickets sold)
Compare that to the 1/6.375.600...
Let's use 1/1000 as the actual chance; as I outlined above, your probability is based on a false assumption.
Let's also assume that there are no prizes other than the top prize, which I'm pretty sure is a false assumption.
Each ticket I buy has a value of 5/6 its purchase price, because if I put a link to BIG in my bio, I have a 1/1.5m chance of winning 1.25b isk by spending 1,000 isk. Participating in 1,000 lotteries therefore costs me 166,666.67 isk. What I'm saying here is, I will spend 1,000,000 isk on tickets, but if it's a fair lottery and I do this long enough, I'll eventually win without rigging anything! Amortized over 1,000 tickets, my average winnings would be 833,333.33 isk. This number is a little fuzzy because it ignores the non-randomness of the drawing I manage to rig, so feel free to pretend it costs me double that, if it makes you feel better.
The issue is, after 1,000 drawings, on average, I'll have successfully rigged the lottery once, and won 1.25 BILLION isk. And I'll have spent (even ignoring everything else) only a million.
Originally by: Heikki
So MP, do you still put your reputation behind your advise of not participating on this lottery due the likelyhood of it being riggable?
Yes.
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 20:11:00 -
[33]
If you aren't scared ****less by now, you aren't paying attention.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 20:29:00 -
[34]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Heikki
IMHO the current system has far too much hassle compared to modern methods. Yet if BIG opts to hold on it due historic reasons.
This one actually deserves a comment as well.
There is one reason, and one reason alone, for why the lottery draw is conducted as it is.
Namely : To make the drawing (more) fun.
The drawing itself is more than just a draw, it's a show, it's entertainment, it's a time for relaxing and fooling around a bit, generally having a good time.
The reason for me thinking up the system, we are using, is that I simply didnt want to do a "Lets press the button and see who wins" scenario (or use some out of game numbers)
I wanted (and want) people to be active participants in the drawing, and not just sitting on the sideline waiting for the winners name to be posted.
I want it to be an "event".
An active event, that you can partake in (or not).
Hence I thought up the method of having the participants themself beeing the "random number generator".
And for 105 times this has worked like a charm - Lots of fun is beeing had for the approx 1 hour a drawing lasts.
A system to accomplish this in a "safe" manner can easily be created. Before you do the drawing, you come up with a (very, VERY large; use random.org to generate a few hundred numbers between 1 and TICKETS_SOLD and add them all together, I'd be happy to write an app for this) number. Before the drawing starts, you post a hash of that number, and of that number + 1 (this vastly expands the solution space against a birthday paradox attack). You then run the lottery as you always have, but at the end, you add the number you had pre-selected to the sum of everyone else's numbers.
Let's examine the possibilities one-by-one:
- Because you have posted the result of a one-way function on that number (that is, given a hash, nobody could have known what the original number was), you cannot change the number in order to let someone of your choosing win. (You reveal the number after the drawing, so everyone can check that it matches up to the hash you posted.)
- Corollary: It doesn't matter if you choose the random number MALICIOUSLY; unless you also control the numbers shouted out in the channel, you cannot let a person of your choosing win.
- Because the random number you add is a perfectly-random offset, even the most carefully-orchestrated campaign to control every number-caller in the channel accomplishes nothing. Controlling the channel does not mean you control the ticket number chosen.
Now, this does have a weakness--controlling the channel AND controlling your random number selection allows you to rig the lottery. I'm open to suggestions on how to counteract this possibility.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 21:08:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Originally by: TornSoul
If you believe someone can control internet lag, then you dont really need to read on, and we will simply have to agree to disagree on that beeing possible.
This statement is a bit broken; I can control my own lag by moving closer to the endpoint of my data's travels, and I can control others' lag by means of DoS or manipulating QoS or service provisioning data at their ISP level. As a more-practical example, I could open conversations with every non-conspiring person in the channel just before "the starting gun is fired", if you will. This will lag them out, produce a modal window preventing them from entering a number, and/or switch them to a different tab. Any one of those would be sufficient to deny them the capability to get their number in first.
And anyone could do the same to you.
You are not controlling anything.
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Your math is a bit broken
You are correct, it's a bit broken.
The correct formular is 5/25*4/24*3/23*2/22*1/21
(and not 1/25*1/24*1/23*1/22*1/21 - Typo/brainfart on my part)
Which makes my inital number 120 times smaller (5*4*3*2*1) than it should have been.
However your scenario of only 12 ppl in the channel is completly without any hold in reality.
That would mean only 7 people beside your goons.
FYI the channel usually has around 35 ppl in it for the drawings.
And if your 5 ppl shows up as well, that would make 40.
So your example of just 7(12) people in the channel is completly without hold in reality and is only used to try and spin your own numbers in a more favorably light.
I'm not going to comment on a fabrication.
Now if I was like you, I would immidiatly feel compelled to look up all your former business enterprises and in them inform people of your fabrication. Afterall... Those business enterprises *could be* run with fabricated and spun numbers as well. If you've done it once...
But you needn't worry.
I'm not you, nor like you.
So I'll settle for for using this thread to let peopel know that
"Your numbers are without hold in reality, and are a fabrication - It's pure spin to back your arguments
You can claim all you want, that you have no idea how many are in the channel, and that you simply took a best guess.
But if that was the case, why did you not use the numbers from my example to prove your point?
Play fair I'll damn well call you on it.
BIG Lottery
[url |
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 21:14:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
<snip>You then run the lottery as you always have, but at the end, you add the number you had pre-selected to the sum of everyone else's numbers.
<snip>
This has merit - And I'll consider implementing it.
BIG Lottery
[url |
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 21:27:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Now, this does have a weakness--controlling the channel AND controlling your random number selection allows you to rig the lottery. I'm open to suggestions on how to counteract this possibility.
MP
Again... You are going out on the deep end finding theoritically flaws, no matter how small the possibility of them occuring.
Some other lotteries here have used RL lottery numbers to decide the winner(s)
I put to you, that it is possible to rig those RL Lottery numbers as well.
*Extremly* unlikely - But possible.
I think Heikki already mentioned it - Theres yet to be invented any method of making a draw 100% (no rounding!) non-riggable.
There is *always* a ridiculous small chance of a "conspiracy" to rig it.
And it this incredible small chance you are backing your arguments on - and putting your reputation on the line with.
BIG Lottery
[url |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 21:53:00 -
[38]
Originally by: TornSoul
Edited by: TornSoul on 28/05/2007 21:14:26
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Originally by: TornSoul
If you believe someone can control internet lag, then you dont really need to read on, and we will simply have to agree to disagree on that beeing possible.
This statement is a bit broken; I can control my own lag by moving closer to the endpoint of my data's travels, and I can control others' lag by means of DoS or manipulating QoS or service provisioning data at their ISP level. As a more-practical example, I could open conversations with every non-conspiring person in the channel just before "the starting gun is fired", if you will. This will lag them out, produce a modal window preventing them from entering a number, and/or switch them to a different tab. Any one of those would be sufficient to deny them the capability to get their number in first.
And anyone could do the same to you.
You are not controlling anything.
This is a VERY short-sighted argument. What you're saying is, the lottery's not riggable, so long as everyone tries their damndest to rig it?
To be honest, this is probably by far the easiest way to rig the lottery. If I were to put my theories into practical application, this is the method I'd choose. It's the only one that, with enough practice and coordination, can win 100% of the time.
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Your math is a bit broken
You are correct, it's a bit broken.
The correct formular is 5/25*4/24*3/23*2/22*1/21
(and not 1/25*1/24*1/23*1/22*1/21 - Typo/brainfart on my part)
Which makes my inital number 120 times smaller (5*4*3*2*1) than it should have been.
However your scenario of only 12 ppl in the channel is completly without any hold in reality.
That would mean only 7 people beside your goons.
FYI the channel usually has around 35 ppl in it for the drawings.
And if your 5 ppl shows up as well, that would make 40.
So your example of just 7(12) people in the channel is completly without hold in reality and is only used to try and spin your own numbers in a more favorably light.
I'm not going to comment on a fabrication.
I apparently misinterpreted this:
Originally by: TornSoul
*snip* ... = 1/6.375.600
(this number will ofc vary from draw to draw, but not in any significant way - On a "bad" day I guess it could be halfed)
Upon further review, perhaps you meant that the denominator of the probability could be halved? Halving the probability is making it LESS likely, so that didn't make any sense; I read it as halving the number of people in the channel as being a genuine possibility. My apologies for reading what you wrote incorrectly. I hope I've explained how I came to that mistaken conclusion.
Mea culpa, nolo contendere, if I misunderstood your intent in that way.
(continued)
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 21:54:00 -
[39]
Originally by: TornSoul
Now if I was like you, I would immidiatly feel compelled to look up all your former business enterprises and in them inform people of your fabrication. Afterall... Those business enterprises *could be* run with fabricated and spun numbers as well. If you've done it once...
You probably don't want to go down the road of accusing people of accounting shenanigans.
Pick your auditor and we can run through ZERO.'s assets tonight.
Question my business integrity again without a shred of evidence and I'll hold you over the coals until you'll be lucky to get 5 isk out of begging in Local in Jita.
I'm attacking your LOTTERY. Early on, I attacked you personally due to SPECIFIC evidence that you were cooking your books and that you had lied to shareholders. You'll note that I've backed off on that; DG and others have assured me that you are trustable as a person.
Your failure in the lottery's case seems to be endemic to your failure in BMBE. You do not look out for the interest of shareholders; you hold your own personal honor up as such a high mark of distinction that you find the very concept of changing a process or conviction at which you've arrived to be something that could be demanded only by someone bent on your destruction.
I AM NOT OUT TO DESTROY YOU.
But I WILL NOT HESITATE to destroy anything you put out in front of the public with willful disregard for the protection of the public you're claiming to serve. And in its current form, the lottery can be rigged and you're plugging your ears and going, "Nahnahnahnahnah." It doesn't matter if it's a one-in-a-billion chance. You should be looking out for the best interests of your players above all other concerns. Your responses in this thread have shown none of that (barring your second-most-recent one, where you said you'd consider the partial solution I proposed).
Originally by: TornSoul
You can claim all you want, that you have no idea how many are in the channel, and that you simply took a best guess.
But if that was the case, why did you not use the numbers from my example to prove your point?
And why didn't you include the chance of me randomly winning in your numbers, and why did you bring the purchase of additional tickets into play as a factor, when both of us know additional tickets change nothing from a cost-per-ticket statistics standpoint? I didn't intentionally fudge my numbers, and even if you think me evil enough to have done so, despite my insistence to the contrary, I only messed up one. You screwed up three (permutations instead of combinations, random winning, and additional tickets). Glass houses, stones, etc.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 21:58:00 -
[40]
Originally by: TornSoul
Some other lotteries here have used RL lottery numbers to decide the winner(s)
I put to you, that it is possible to rig those RL Lottery numbers as well.
*Extremly* unlikely - But possible.
Ah, but RL lotteries are observed by independent accounting firms, regulated by government agencies, and you can go to real-life, PMITA prison for rigging one.
My apologies if I consider a FAR superior method of random-number selection overseen by a FAR larger and more complex system of sa***uards, with EXTANT penalties--let alone the fact that they're quite large--for rigging it to be not the least bit comparable to your internet spaceship lottery.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
|
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 22:27:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
It doesn't matter if it's a one-in-a-billion chance.
Aaaarg...
That is *excactly* the point.
For all your posturing about how safe the RL lottery drawing procedure is - answer me this question :
Is the chance zero that it could not be rigged?
(through some conspiracy of those involved in overseing the drawing etc etc).
Answer that one question with a clear "yes" or "no", and we can continue the discussion.
BIG Lottery
[url |
IMinYOURforums
Caldari
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 22:31:00 -
[42]
INTERNET LOTTERIES: SERIOUS BUISNESS...
@ Motivated Prophet:
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 |
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.28 22:43:00 -
[43]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Originally by: TornSoul
Now if I was like you, I would immidiatly feel compelled to look up all your former business enterprises and in them inform people of your fabrication. Afterall... Those business enterprises *could be* run with fabricated and spun numbers as well. If you've done it once...
You probably don't want to go down the road of accusing people of accounting shenanigans.
Pick your auditor and we can run through ZERO.'s assets tonight.
Question my business integrity again without a shred of evidence and I'll hold you over the coals until you'll be lucky to get 5 isk out of begging in Local in Jita.
Pot meet kettle.
This is *excactly* what you did in your very first post in a BIG Lottery thread.
You attacked the lottery and it's chosen method of drawing the winners without even having set your mind to how it actually works (You did *not* know how it worked at the time of your first post, which was clearly evident in some following posts)
Instead you attacked the lottery *solely* based on your impression of my person, based on a discussion elsewhere.
Let me quote
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
There is no reason to invest in a non-publicly-vettable lottery run by a corporation that blatantly lies.
I'd have run a lottery over 100 times, too, if I could opaquely choose my alt every tenth drawing!
Given your now-proven propensity for lying to the Eve public, what improvements to the lottery format do you have planned?
MP
This was your first attack at the lottery - and at this time you, as you have admitted, didnt even grasp how the drawing works.
Yet you *still* attacked it.
Without having (and probably caring) about all the facts
So before you get too fragging worked up about me saying I *wont* use same questionable "business" methods
(and thats another joke - I said I would *not* stoop to the same level)
- Take a good long look in the mirror buddy!
And for the record - Yes I do indeed, after seeing how you have conducted yourself here and elsewhere, question your so called "business integrity".
Feel free to hold me over the coals all you want.
You started this, dont expect to get away without a scratch.
BIG Lottery
[url |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 00:35:00 -
[44]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
It doesn't matter if it's a one-in-a-billion chance.
Aaaarg...
That is *excactly* the point.
For all your posturing about how safe the RL lottery drawing procedure is - answer me this question :
Is the chance zero that it could not be rigged?
(through some conspiracy of those involved in overseing the drawing etc etc).
Answer that one question with a clear "yes" or "no", and we can continue the discussion.
No.
That question was already answered, and the implications of my answer already discussed, here, right above your post.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 01:24:00 -
[45]
Originally by: TornSoul
This is *excactly* what you did in your very first post in a BIG Lottery thread.
You attacked the lottery and it's chosen method of drawing the winners without even having set your mind to how it actually works (You did *not* know how it worked at the time of your first post, which was clearly evident in some following posts)
Instead you attacked the lottery *solely* based on your impression of my person, based on a discussion elsewhere.
As I've already said, I attacked your person and not your drawing method because your page did not contain details on how the lottery was run under "rules", "FAQ", or "Howto". The extent of your documentation was this:
Quote:
Q : How can I be sure this is not a scam?
A : You cant - simple as that. Either you trust us or you dont.
If you mistrust us, dont play.
Given an unfolding sitation in which all evidence pointed to a large-scale scam within BMBE, I suddenly had impetus to look into how the lottery was run, a topic I'd always intended to investigate. Imagine my surprise when I could find no mention of a publicly-verifiable lottery system as is used by even the freshest, newest lottery in this forum! (And when they don't, you get this.)
I'm willing to have ZERO.'s finances examined by an external auditor. I can't help but notice that you still haven't made a similar tender.
Originally by: TornSoul
Yet you *still* attacked it.
Without having (and probably caring) about all the facts
As detailed above, I attempted to acquire the facts by searching your page under the three headings where any reasonable person would expect to find the rules ("Rules"), the answer to a frequently-asked question ("FAQ"), and how to participate in the drawing ("Howto"). My apologies for not clicking literally every link on this site; I thought I had covered my bases pretty well.
When someone lies to his shareholders about the finances in a 100b isk company, it is not an unreasonable leap of induction for me to surmise that you might be lying to lottery participants, as well. I was wrong in making that assumption, and I am sorry. I furthermore regret my lack of discipline evidenced by my unwillingness to click every single link on your website in search of the drawing procedure. Lastly, I apologize for misinterpreting your "half" comment, as described in post 37.
Does that clear the air sufficiently for you to stop with the ad hominem attacks?
I'm very near to the point where I'll just drop a line in each new lottery post you make, linking to a site where the flaws in your system are laid bare. I have gained nothing but derision for helping you to protect your customers; if people are stupid enough to hand you money when I've shown them that they aren't getting a fair deal, I can't force people to act in their own self-interest. You label me a troll, which is the only justification you've given so far for your view of my actions. Is it really that preposterous that a fellow IPO CEO might want to protect the reputation and honor of a longstanding Eve institution? Or is it easier to label me as a troll than to consider the fact that you're taking money under false pretenses every time you insist that your lottery "cannot be rigged"?
Your lottery is broken and it can be rigged so that a given person wins. It should be IN YOUR INTEREST TO STOP THIS FROM HAPPENING. Even if I were Satan incarnate, in the process of feasting on the hearts of innocent children while telling you this, you need to recognize the information is true and act on it. Hate me, string me up, do what you want, that's fine. But vindictiveness does not substitute for correcting the errors I have demonstrated.
If you care about your participants, fix your lottery.
If you don't, continue attacking my motivations for telling you to fix your lottery.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
SibSpi
Infinitus Odium
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 04:49:00 -
[46]
Edited by: SibSpi on 29/05/2007 04:52:40
Edited by: SibSpi on 29/05/2007 04:51:41
Example of how you can get the numbers for a scam of the lotto:
This is based off of an actual range used, and number of numbers used, and total number of tickets. I'll be using ticket 0, feasible enough to get for someone trying to con the lotto.
My ticket: 0
Range: 45000000 - 87000000
Number of people to use: 5
Total number of tickets: 1003642
Quick review of what Modulus is, it is the remainder of x/y, 18 mod 5 will be 3. But, since 8 mod 5 is ALSO 3, it's impossible with this equation to find the value to x with 100% certainty.
 Ok, now, I want ticket 0 to win, and assuming I am able to get 5 people to get their numbers they throw out in the top5 BIG sees.
1,003,642 * 56 = 56,203,952
56,203,952 is in the range of numbers the participants are supposed to throw out. 56 could be anything, as long as the product is within range bounds.
56,203,952 * 5 = 281,019,760
You get a number that is in the range of possible numbers when 5 numbers from the range given are added up. Not finished just yet, now you need to add your ticket number!
281,019,760 + 0 = 281,019,760
Normally this would be an annoying problem, but not since you have ticket 0.
281,019,760 mod 1,003,642 = 0
Now, if your 5 people, all put in the number 56203952, (281,019,760 / 5), and all 5 got chosen, you win.
But this would obviously be spotted by TS as a con, but not if you were to just chop up the number a bit..
The numbers I added together I kept in range, and did a little in my head math to make sure I get a rough estimate of how much I have left.
281,019,760 - (50,324,123 + 63,234,234 + 71,000,000 + 45,000,000) = 51,461,403
I just made sure, after adding 4 numbers, my result would be in range.
50,324,123 + 63,234,234 + 71,000,000 + 45,000,000 + 51,461,403 = 281,019,760 Which, of course, 281,019,760 mod 1,003,642 = 0
To summarize what I did, the reason 281,019,760 mod 1,003,642 = 0, is because, 281,019,760 - 0(my ticket number, could possibly be anything) = 281,019,760, which is a product of a number(56,203,952) in range(45000000 - 87000000) multiplied by the number of people needed(5). And 56,203,952 is the product of 1,003,642 * 56.
I hope it wasn't too garbled, or too hard to understand. I did this as a proof of concept, I attempted to use an actual winning lotto number, but it proved to be a lot of work(few hours I don't have) to get to work right. I had to do a few revisions of what I did, had to do a few corrections in my post before posting also. My personal beliefs is that TS has NOT cheated in the lotto.
All my numbers I started off with were from the 2007.02.12 drawing according to my logs.
[ 2007.02.12 20:06:21 ] BIG Games > range : 45000000 - 87000000
[ 2007.02.12 20:06:29 ] BIG Games > Well use the first 5 numbers
-------(after all the number spamming and adding)-----
[ 2007.02.12 20:09:28 ] BIG Games > now do (actual number from drawing here) mod 1003642
As I said, this is merely proof of concept.
-------------
When in doubt, F1->F8... |
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 16:28:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
It doesn't matter if it's a one-in-a-billion chance.
Aaaarg...
That is *excactly* the point.
For all your posturing about how safe the RL lottery drawing procedure is - answer me this question :
Is the chance zero that it could not be rigged?
(through some conspiracy of those involved in overseing the drawing etc etc).
Answer that one question with a clear "yes" or "no", and we can continue the discussion.
No.
That question was already answered, and the implications of my answer already discussed, here, right above your post.
MP
The only implications that you care to elaborate on in that post is that the two drawing methods are dissimilar.
Well duh!
But at least you now admit that even a RL lottery could be rigged.
The chance of it happening is ofc redicously low.
At least thats what we imagine, as it's not really possible to put a real number on this.
Same with the BIG Lottery.
Apart from the "pure chance" attack (that will cost you more ISK than you can win) - It's likewise impossible to but a factual number on the chance of someone controlling internet lag, in order to control the outcome of the BIG Lottery draw.
You *whole* argument builds on the perception that *you* see this chance as beeing overwhelming (without any proof - as there really cant be any) - While I content the opposite (again, without any real proof, as there really cant be any)
Thats what this whole ridicoulous argument boils down to.
(I'm here refering to the factual arguments about the drawing procedure - and not the one about your motives for attacking)
BIG Lottery
[url |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 17:41:00 -
[48]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
It doesn't matter if it's a one-in-a-billion chance.
Aaaarg...
That is *excactly* the point.
For all your posturing about how safe the RL lottery drawing procedure is - answer me this question :
Is the chance zero that it could not be rigged?
(through some conspiracy of those involved in overseing the drawing etc etc).
Answer that one question with a clear "yes" or "no", and we can continue the discussion.
No.
That question was already answered, and the implications of my answer already discussed, here, right above your post.
MP
The only implications that you care to elaborate on in that post is that the two drawing methods are dissimilar.
Well duh!
But at least you now admit that even a RL lottery could be rigged.
The chance of it happening is ofc redicously low.
At least thats what we imagine, as it's not really possible to put a real number on this.
Same with the BIG Lottery.
Apart from the "pure chance" attack (that will cost you more ISK than you can win) - It's likewise impossible to but a factual number on the chance of someone controlling internet lag, in order to control the outcome of the BIG Lottery draw.
You *whole* argument builds on the perception that *you* see this chance as beeing overwhelming (without any proof - as there really cant be any) - While I content the opposite (again, without any real proof, as there really cant be any)
Thats what this whole ridicoulous argument boils down to.
(I'm here refering to the factual arguments about the drawing procedure - and not the one about your motives for attacking)
If you seriously think lag in Eve can't be controlled using nothing but in-game, non-exploit methods, ask ASCN's Crow pilot in the second alliance tournament. He received several dozen private convo invitations that made him unable to pilot his ship effectively.
Originally by: TornSoul
Apart from the "pure chance" attack (that will cost you more ISK than you can win)
I refer you to my analysis up above. Using your (corrected, and admitted by you to be a bit conservative) figure of 120/6,375,600 (==1/53,130):
53,130 * 1/6 * 1000 = 8,855,000 isk to play.
Winnings are 1.25 billion isk.
Even ignoring random wins along the way, it'd only cost me 53,130,000 isk to buy a ticket in every lottery for the next 53,130 draws and to try to rig each one. With non-rigged winnings figured in, that's a 141:1 payout; hell, it's 23.5:1 using the "fake" numbers that assume I'll never win randomly.
MP
--
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
TornSoul
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 20:08:00 -
[49]
I suggest you put your money where your mouth is.
I already have.
This long debate clearly demonstrates it wont be settled here.
BIG Lottery
[url |
Xaroth Brook
Minmatar
Doomcraft
Mech Ops Syndicate
|
Posted - 2007.05.29 23:09:00 -
[50]
MP why are you trying to prove it's theoretically possible.. I mean.. even games like blackjack and poker are riggable...
the difference is, that during the BIG draws there are like, almost a hundred people watching.. it'd be funny if somebody would actually be mad enough to try to get <insert amount of> people to rig the lottery.. they would fail... why? because there are outside variables that you cannot control.
if you really want to go live by odds, i'd suggest to stay at home, unplug your electronical equipment, and go hide under your blanket.
@TS: after my auction runs out i'll have some moneh again to buy me n my alt some tickets, i'll see you at the drawing.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Xaroth Brook
[Datacore - Mechanical Engineering] x 125
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Iwishai Wazahero
Scrofulous Wealth
|
Posted - 2007.05.30 18:32:00 -
[51]
Just want to say to TS...
Stop dignifying the MP troll with replies. Ignore him. The man is quite obviously working to an agenda that is not concerned with logic, or fairness, or anything other than being a hair splitting eejit. You have countered all his arguments fully, and yet he continues to raise further, even more unlikely, objections. His blustering buffoonish threats when you (apparently) insulted his e-integrity should have left no one in any doubt of the type of blowhard fool he is.
Your BIG lotteries are superb, part of the landscape of Eve, and will continue to get my support whenever I have the spare ISK. Its a shame that the prizes may have to drop (not least considering I have yet to win...) but your current format and drawing methods are absolutely fine imo. Long may you continue :)
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LancerSix
Dirty Deeds Corp.
Axiom Empire
|
Posted - 2007.05.31 01:12:00 -
[52]
Actually, I agree with MP here. It does seem a bit on the fixable side.
Simple solution tho, to avoid the whole wall of text, like it was suggested, add some entropy to the result. Add to / divide by the bonus number for some real lottery and call it a day. Trouble is with that, if the rigger knows that number in advance he can just account for it. By posting a salted hash of some random number, you effectively avoid all this.
 |
IonHammer
Minmatar
Black Avatar
Firmus Ixion
|
Posted - 2007.05.31 06:40:00 -
[53]
Originally by: IMinYOURforums
INTERNET LOTTERIES: SERIOUS BUISNESS...
@ Motivated Prophet:
.....................................__................................................
.............................,-~*`»lllllll`*~,..........................................
.......................,-~*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll»`*-,....................................
..................,-~*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll*-,..................................
...............,-*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll.\.................................
.............;*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll,-~*~-,llllllllllllllllllll\................................
..............\lllllllllllllllllllllllllll/.........\;;;;llllllllllll,-`~-,...........................
...............\lllllllllllllllllllll,-*...........`~-~-,...(.(»`*,`,..........................
................\llllllllllll,-~*.....................)_-\..*`*;..)..........................
.................\,-*`»,*`)............,-~*`~................/.....................
..................|/.../.../~,......-~*,-~*`;................/.\..................
................./.../.../.../..,-,..*~,.`*~*................*...\.................
................|.../.../.../.*`...\...........................)....)»`~,..................
................|./.../..../.......)......,.)`*~-,............/....|..)...`~-,.............
..............././.../...,*`-,.....`-,...*`....,---......\..../...../..|.........»```*~-,,,,
...............(..........)`*~-,....`*`.,-~*.,-*......|.../..../.../............\........
................*-,.......`*-,...`~,..``.,,,-*..........|.,*...,*...|..............\........
...................*,.........`-,...)-,..............,-*`...,-*....(`-,............\.......
......................f`-,.........`-,/...*-,___,,-~*....,-*......|...`-,..........\........
dam staight pooky snore, lets face it if it was riggable oz would have won by now
If thats your real life i'm very jealous - Petwraith |
Martin Silenius
Gallente
Ad Astra Vexillum
Brutally Clever Empire
|
Posted - 2007.05.31 06:53:00 -
[54]
And there I thought BIG lottery was here mostly to amuse us who are buying tckets and make some ISK to BIG corp.
Naturaly to make someome richer for a whole lot of ISK, but thats another matter completley :D
From my limited point of view - if you think its riged, dont play and go about youre buisness.
If you dont think its riged -play or dont, youre choice.
Unless BIG is youre competition I see no point in attacking them in troll flame wars.
If this is some kind of attempt of shuting BIG down or at least taking some of theire buisness then all this makes sence. EVE is after all dog eat dog game.
But to write up walls of text most people wont even bother to read - its pointless ( to use a polite word ).
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RaTTuS
BIG
Interstellar Alcohol Conglomerate
|
Posted - 2007.05.31 08:15:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Martin Silenius
And there I thought BIG lottery was here mostly to amuse us who are buying tckets and make some ISK to BIG corp.
the thing is BIG don't make any money from the lottery and never has.
all the lottery moneys from ticket sales goes into the pot and TS tops that up from the corp wallet to make the prizes [well some prizes have been donated previously - but even then we dont make money on it.]
--
BIG Lottery, BIG Deal, InEve & Blog
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xDaKewlGuyx
Pator Tech School
|
Posted - 2007.06.02 12:01:00 -
[56]
Motivated Prophet you are annoying and should stop posting and go suck on some massive scordite tbqh
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Mythrl
|
Posted - 2007.06.03 23:09:00 -
[57]
I would just like to add my thanks to the Big Lottery I have entered it on a number of occasions and though people are saying in this thread that it is fixable it is very very unlikely to occur.
Lets just hope participation increases again to continue with the awards that are being delivered at the moment.
Carry on the entertainment............
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