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Daimyo Brass
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Posted - 2007.06.26 06:30:00 -
[1]
I've read several threads about the mineral market. About how its got 'fixed' low and high values.And how the relationship is such that low end minerals and high end minerals have a rough sort of inverse relationship. (excuse my approximate language as thinking economically is new to me).
So what about Nocxium? It seems at an unfeasibly low price when its market graph is examined so it would seem a good buy but it is a 'middle' end mineral so perhaps the rules are different for it.
Any thoughts?
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Tandori Tanaka
Tanaka Stuff and Supplies
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Posted - 2007.06.26 10:09:00 -
[2]
Consider Nocxium as high end mineral. In decent amounts it is only found in lowsec and in 0.0. In lowsec nobody is mining because its not worth the risk. So the most Noxcium comes either from the Drone alloys (0.0 Drone Regions) or the Crokite Ore (mainly northern 0.0 regions).
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Block Ukx
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Posted - 2007.06.26 10:14:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Block Ukx on 26/06/2007 10:14:26
Originally by: Daimyo Brass So what about Nocxium? It seems at an unfeasibly low price ...
I did some calculations on the supply side of minerals and I placed Nocxium at 428.40 ¦ 263.40. So current price, while low, is well within the range of expected prices.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.06.26 16:57:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Block Ukx Edited by: Block Ukx on 26/06/2007 10:14:26
Originally by: Daimyo Brass So what about Nocxium? It seems at an unfeasibly low price ...
I did some calculations on the supply side of minerals and I placed Nocxium at 428.40 ¦ 263.40. So current price, while low, is well within the range of expected prices.
I've never once seen an even remotely accurate "supply side" estimation of mineral prices... so can you please enlighten us as to how you got a figure with a margin of error of +/- 65% ? You do realize how incredibly large a margin of error that is, right? It's like saying person A will get 70% of the vote and person B will get 20% of the vote... but with a margin of error of 65% then person B could still be the actual winner because of how far off your numbers could be.
You have absolutely no way of estimating how much of each ore is mined. Personal mining numbers mean nothing. Personal recycling numbers mean nothing.
Now... if you somehow got an entire massive alliance to give you all of their data on every mineral they got from mining/recycling for an entire month then it would give a rough estimate of the comparable quantities of each ore. But it still would drastically change depending on what part of space you're in.
The best way to calculate current comparable amounts of each mineral that is mined/recycled/etc is to use the current prices. The market is a good representation of how much of each mineral is currently available. Prices don't stay low just because they are low. If people truly needed more of that mineral than is available cheaply then they'd pay more and prices would go up.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2007.06.26 17:33:00 -
[5]
You could if you were so inclined, track total sells against buys volume against mean price for the day over time to get a very... mind you VERY... rough estimate for supply.
But even then, your still ****ing in the wind since there are a multitude of other data points you need to complete the estimate.
IMHO and YMMV of course, Noc prices are most affected by drops and ratting. Zydrine supply was reduced in this most recent patch and Noc was put in its place in some places and increased in others.
Because all min prices are link to each other. Lower ends drop and the top two high ends have no where to go but up. |
Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.06.26 18:26:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Block Ukx Edited by: Block Ukx on 26/06/2007 10:14:26
Originally by: Daimyo Brass So what about Nocxium? It seems at an unfeasibly low price ...
I did some calculations on the supply side of minerals and I placed Nocxium at 428.40 ¦ 263.40. So current price, while low, is well within the range of expected prices.
I've never once seen an even remotely accurate "supply side" estimation of mineral prices... so can you please enlighten us as to how you got a figure with a margin of error of +/- 65% ? You do realize how incredibly large a margin of error that is, right?
So are you whinging because he's too accurate, or not accurate enough?
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Domosan
Caldari Incoherent Inc
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Posted - 2007.06.26 19:17:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Block Ukx Edited by: Block Ukx on 26/06/2007 10:14:26
Originally by: Daimyo Brass So what about Nocxium? It seems at an unfeasibly low price ...
I did some calculations on the supply side of minerals and I placed Nocxium at 428.40 ¦ 263.40. So current price, while low, is well within the range of expected prices.
I've never once seen an even remotely accurate "supply side" estimation of mineral prices... so can you please enlighten us as to how you got a figure with a margin of error of +/- 65% ? You do realize how incredibly large a margin of error that is, right? It's like saying person A will get 70% of the vote and person B will get 20% of the vote... but with a margin of error of 65% then person B could still be the actual winner because of how far off your numbers could be.
You have absolutely no way of estimating how much of each ore is mined. Personal mining numbers mean nothing. Personal recycling numbers mean nothing.
Now... if you somehow got an entire massive alliance to give you all of their data on every mineral they got from mining/recycling for an entire month then it would give a rough estimate of the comparable quantities of each ore. But it still would drastically change depending on what part of space you're in.
The best way to calculate current comparable amounts of each mineral that is mined/recycled/etc is to use the current prices. The market is a good representation of how much of each mineral is currently available. Prices don't stay low just because they are low. If people truly needed more of that mineral than is available cheaply then they'd pay more and prices would go up.
Agree. And to add even more complexity, unlike RL, there is no "cost" to stockpiling. No warehouses need to be rented so indefinate unlimited storage is "possible" at zero cost. Therefore, you are unable to determine with any accuracy at what prices will bring in more supplies than anticipated (ie when it becomes economical to liquidate certain reserves). The only information that is accurate on a "global" level is whats supplied by the market info available.
Regards
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Marodi Julita
Sublime Captial Investments
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Posted - 2007.06.26 20:16:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Domosan
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Block Ukx Edited by: Block Ukx on 26/06/2007 10:14:26
Originally by: Daimyo Brass So what about Nocxium? It seems at an unfeasibly low price ...
I did some calculations on the supply side of minerals and I placed Nocxium at 428.40 ¦ 263.40. So current price, while low, is well within the range of expected prices.
I've never once seen an even remotely accurate "supply side" estimation of mineral prices... so can you please enlighten us as to how you got a figure with a margin of error of +/- 65% ? You do realize how incredibly large a margin of error that is, right? It's like saying person A will get 70% of the vote and person B will get 20% of the vote... but with a margin of error of 65% then person B could still be the actual winner because of how far off your numbers could be.
You have absolutely no way of estimating how much of each ore is mined. Personal mining numbers mean nothing. Personal recycling numbers mean nothing.
Now... if you somehow got an entire massive alliance to give you all of their data on every mineral they got from mining/recycling for an entire month then it would give a rough estimate of the comparable quantities of each ore. But it still would drastically change depending on what part of space you're in.
The best way to calculate current comparable amounts of each mineral that is mined/recycled/etc is to use the current prices. The market is a good representation of how much of each mineral is currently available. Prices don't stay low just because they are low. If people truly needed more of that mineral than is available cheaply then they'd pay more and prices would go up.
Agree. And to add even more complexity, unlike RL, there is no "cost" to stockpiling. No warehouses need to be rented so indefinate unlimited storage is "possible" at zero cost. Therefore, you are unable to determine with any accuracy at what prices will bring in more supplies than anticipated (ie when it becomes economical to liquidate certain reserves). The only information that is accurate on a "global" level is whats supplied by the market info available.
Regards
While no actual cost to mining, there is the opportunity cost that they could spend their time mining more valuable ore there, so you can base the minimum price they would sell at to roughly equal the other minerals in lowsec and/or 0.0.
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