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Ander
Gallente Sniggerdly Pandemic Legion
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Posted - 2007.07.03 23:35:00 -
[1]
Over the weeks I've watched taranis price drop from 27mill to 9 mill out in 0.0 . It's a Jita in miniature where I'm at where prices will quickly mimic JITA prices as soon as the reseller competition catches up.
Cap recharger II's, cpr II's, ceptors, command ships. Pretty much anything t2 has dropped quickly. I've matched this with the Jita prices spotted on my alt. Everything is going down. Would it be a good time to buy a t2 bpo with this price-drop frenzy? I'm seeing some commandship bpo's being sold off for 15-20bill isk. Considering you can build ca 2 per day it'll take more than a year to pay off the BPO and the BPO's are still getting cheaper.
Invention is very much to blame for the price crash.
So to my question. Should I dare invest in any t2 bpo now?
EVE PIRATE ANDER! now posting in "orange" |
Mirirar
Solstice Systems Development Concourse
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Posted - 2007.07.03 23:50:00 -
[2]
Dude, all the smart players left the market months ago... long before Invention hit.
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Jennifer Meek
Gallente Planck Bubble Generation Technologies
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Posted - 2007.07.04 01:02:00 -
[3]
T2 bpos are still profitable. Just not as much as before.
Invention was just to lower prices to more manageable levels. Not destroy T2 bpo owners, as such, T2 bpos are now super long investments, not 1 year omgProfit machines. ---
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Jinx Barker
GFB Scientific
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Posted - 2007.07.04 01:05:00 -
[4]
Command Ships, Recon Ships, HACs are still pretty much viable items as BPOs go.
Interceptors, Cov. Ops. Frigates, Assault Ships, took a nose dive, painfully.
If I did have extra few dozen billions, I would invest in a Command, HAC, Recon ship BPO, proper research, and one can compete with Inventors by providing large quantities at faster production times, and at less ISK Vs. Imperfect T2 invention BPCs.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.07.04 03:37:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Mirirar Dude, all the smart players left the market months ago... long before Invention hit.
QFT
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
Shar Tegral> Well someone please say something quotable for this month!!!! |
Amy Wang
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Posted - 2007.07.04 04:40:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Amy Wang on 04/07/2007 04:41:14 t2 BPOs went from insane profits down to very good profits, there is nothing wrong with that, more people can afford t2 now and the profits are spread over more people, the profit is still there however.
I know two people who got a t2 BPO over the lottery in the weeks before Rev 2 each making a profit of 50-70 Billion ISK per year even with now dropped prices , which imho is still a very nice amount. I can only imagine how immense the profits must have been before invention hit and I think we can only be glad that it is a little more balanced now.
But to answer your question: If you can get your hands on a t2 BPO for a decent price (weighed against profit over time) why not?
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Sharra Savente
Shai'tan's Elite
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Posted - 2007.07.04 13:19:00 -
[7]
I wouldn't. Consider this, how long does it take to *earn back* the price of a researched battleship BPO? Not long at all, about 2 months, if you have a constant supply of minerals and can stay producing. Battleship BPOs are at a stable price, so you don't have to *earn back* the BPO cost. You can always resell it for what you paid.
T2 BPOs are in serious flux. Forking out billions that you might never see again? Taking a year plus to *earn it back*? Inventors are going to take the margins down to what is hair fine profit for them. Yes, you will make a reasonable profit from the BPO, but only by tying up billions of your assets, and you will have to *earn back* that money. The prices they could fall to in the future could wipe out several of the billions you pay now..... Command ships sell for what battleships go for. I've been buying up EOSs, as my main ( Sarmea Moon) is a command ship pilot. More people are getting the skills, but the T2 BPOs for them are more than enough to keep up with demand for some time. Noone has bothered to invent them, since the profit margins are already very slim.
English doesn't borrow from other languages; it follows other languages down dark alleys, coshes them, then rummages in their pockets for loose grammar. |
Guilliman R
Gallente PRO Space Hunters Federation Of united Corps
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Posted - 2007.07.04 14:20:00 -
[8]
It's good, T2 Crashing makes room for Tech 3 (meaning ti wont be WTFBBQ 100bil for a blueprint)
sig needs colour, cookie to mod who adds something!
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Ricdic
Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz
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Posted - 2007.07.04 15:07:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Mirirar Dude, all the smart players left the market months ago... long before Invention hit.
Yeh, and all the 'smarter' players are cleaning up on those t2 bpo's at dirt cheap prices as people run to off-load them. You would be amazed at how low people are going with some of them, just to off-load.
The way I see it, some of my purchases may take 2-5 years to pay off in terms of profits, but either way, I will be here in 2-5 years, at which point these bpo's will be worth a mint (due to no more reseeding) and the price will once more rise.
Sure, it's a gamble, like anything in Eve. But T2 will always be popular, regardless of T3.
Anyway, just my stance on the matter. If you have t2 bpo's to sell, i'm all ears. Just gimme a coupla weeks to repay some debts
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Cenestra Karr
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Posted - 2007.07.04 15:18:00 -
[10]
What About the talk that t-2 BPO's may be converted into limited run BPC's?
I have been reading this on numerous threads. With the advent of invention this is to be the next step in balancing T-2 BPO's.
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Archbishop
Amarr PIE Inc.
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Posted - 2007.07.04 16:07:00 -
[11]
I just did a blog entry on this topic yesterday (blog is linked below my sig). I do see a slight collapse in T2 which is both a good and a bad thing. Good for those who always thought the "lottery" was unfair and bad for those who paid full price for BPOs based on old sales revenue projections who now may never see their investment back.
Archie
PIE WEBSITE ARCHBISHOP'S BLOG |
David H'Levi
Sniggerdly
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Posted - 2007.07.04 16:50:00 -
[12]
T2 has been sustained in no small part due to a huge price bubble: lack of supply and well-organized cartels have been pushing the prices through the roof. I would guess that we are still seeing the bubble bursting. I wouldn't discount the possibility of a reseed, either.
I would suggest investing in something a bit more stable, with a higher payoff and less risk of collapse: FIN would be a good bet, for example. It's risky, because you're giving your money away to another player, but Eefrit has proven himself to be at least marginally trust worthy.
You also have (1) much higher rates of return on your investment (it will pay off in less than two years), (2) less risk of the market continuing to dive, and (3) some form of security to protect your investment. Nor do you have to do any work to make the money -- it's a heck of a lot easier, Ander. As much as you may love me, your signature must pertain to your in-game persona, and thus I must remove it. -Conuion Meow |
Ray McCormack
BIG
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Posted - 2007.07.04 17:06:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Ray McCormack on 04/07/2007 17:05:41
Originally by: David H'Levi T2 has been sustained in no small part due to a huge price bubble: lack of supply and well-organized cartels have been pushing the prices through the roof. I would guess that we are still seeing the bubble bursting. I wouldn't discount the possibility of a reseed, either.
I would suggest investing in something a bit more stable, with a higher payoff and less risk of collapse: FIN would be a good bet, for example. It's risky, because you're giving your money away to another player, but Eefrit has proven himself to be at least marginally trust worthy.
So you're advising people to not invest in T2 BPOs but rather invest in a corporation that invests in T2 BPOs?
Don't get me wrong, FIN is a decent investment. But it's only remained so due to the ability to buy T2 BPOs that give a higher rate of return than it itself does.
Edit : After re-reading your argument it seems you mean FIN-U.
| How To Afford A Tech II BPO | BMBE ISK Loans | |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.07.04 17:21:00 -
[14]
Paying more than 1 years profit for a T2 BPO is just silly. There is absolutely no guarantee you will even have that t2 bpo more than a year from now. Plus the way prices are going it is likely that prices will all be lower in 12 months than they are now.
There is absolutely no reason to pay more than 1 years profits for a BPO. I bought a few BPO's because they were selling at 50-60% of a years profits... I would have needed a trillion isk to buy all the BPO's that were selling below or at 1 years profit. So buying over that is just an un-needed risk.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Jennifer Meek
Gallente Planck Bubble Generation Technologies
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Posted - 2007.07.04 21:17:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Cenestra Karr What About the talk that t-2 BPO's may be converted into limited run BPC's?
I have been reading this on numerous threads. With the advent of invention this is to be the next step in balancing T-2 BPO's.
They are called lies and rumors started by people who are jealous of T2 bpo owners.
I didn't win my T2 bpos, I had to work for them. ---
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Kaaii
Caldari Equilibrium LLC FATAL Alliance
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Posted - 2007.07.04 23:03:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Ander
Invention is very much to thank for the price crash.
fixed...
"Id rather fall beside 10 Lions, than stand with 1000 sheep.."
Trading 101
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Ricdic
Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz
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Posted - 2007.07.05 00:19:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Shadarle Paying more than 1 years profit for a T2 BPO is just silly. There is absolutely no guarantee you will even have that t2 bpo more than a year from now.
What, and you have a guarantee that FIN or FIN-U is no scam? Of course not.
Quote: Plus the way prices are going it is likely that prices will all be lower in 12 months than they are now.
Right now we are seeing panic sales. People who are realising that their profit margin has been reduced due to Invention, and only just starting to see how much lower the profits are, and looking to bail out ASAP as they think their prints are worthless, or close too.
There will be a floor for this though. Prices will drop to a certain level, but over time T2 bpo's will get a little rarer (some are destroyed, some on inactive accounts etc), and this is when those T2 bpo owners will be able to price things back at close to 160% sale prices on items, knowing Inventors can only price at about 200%.
Quote: There is absolutely no reason to pay more than 1 years profits for a BPO.
Maybe not for you. Way I see it. If I buy a BPO for 4b, and it makes me 1b this year. It makes me another 1b next year, and the year after. Now, I decide to sell the bpo. Assuming things go the way I believe they will, I will sell that bpo again at 4b or so.
Therefore, a 4B investment with a 7B return over 3 years.
Quote: So buying over that is just an un-needed risk.
I disagree. I think the 1 year return ideal is quite stupid, as it devalues bpo's well below their true value. Sure, it was a fair assumption before Invention, but a lot has changed.
T2 bpo's are no longer seen as the OMG+WTF Money-making machines
But they are seen as a unique item, something only in the possession of a few. They are also somewhat steady income earners, and the owner of said bpo knows that he can sell up at a decent price once he has had enough.
Anyway, I see some of you disagree, but each to their own. Give me a yell in 3 years and we can find out who was right
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.07.05 00:38:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Ricdic Give me a yell in 3 years and we can find out who was right
In that case let me yell for Morkt Drak. Almost 3 years ago he said that the bpo lottery was broke. He received an even less favorable response than any of you could imagine (especially from the Devs ironically.)
I hope he's somewhere laughing his arse off at all of this. (Raises a toast.)
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
Shar Tegral> Well someone please say something quotable for this month!!!! |
Ricdic
Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz
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Posted - 2007.07.05 01:06:00 -
[19]
Hmm, I dont remember that story. Do you have linkage, or can you summarise it a litte?
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.07.05 01:14:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Ricdic Hmm, I dont remember that story. Do you have linkage, or can you summarise it a litte?
It was so old, back 3 eve guardian servers ago. The mention is worth it as not just a few old timers will remember Morkt. The story itself... meh. Not a fraction as memorable as the man.
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
Shar Tegral> Well someone please say something quotable for this month!!!! |
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2007.07.05 02:10:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Ricdic Hmm, I dont remember that story. Do you have linkage, or can you summarise it a litte?
It was so old, back 3 eve guardian servers ago. The mention is worth it as not just a few old timers will remember Morkt. The story itself... meh. Not a fraction as memorable as the man.
I remember the story, and yes it got a less than favorable review. There were a few though that agreed and a few others that pretty much foretold invention.
I personally only partially agreed and felt that a fix would come, however I felt it would have been quicker in the making. |
Nin Jem
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Posted - 2007.07.05 09:21:00 -
[22]
Depends on your outlook - if you see holding T2 bpo's as a long term investment/gamble then you'll buy - if you see them as a short term money maker then you won't as there are better ways to make isk.
If you were around in 2005 you'd remember many T2 bpo's changing hands for very little - at that time people just didn't think they'd make a worthwhile return so prices were low. 18 months later and the returns were huge and the few who bought when they were cheap became immensely rich.
The mindset now is the same as then - "I'm not buying because returns are low" - well you never can tell what's around the corner.
T2 bpo's are a unique, limited resources and I for one am willing to gamble now just as the people in 2005 did.
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Ulrich Sternaxe
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Posted - 2007.07.05 13:21:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Ulrich Sternaxe on 05/07/2007 13:23:17
Originally by: Ricdic
Originally by: Shadarle Paying more than 1 years profit for a T2 BPO is just silly. There is absolutely no guarantee you will even have that t2 bpo more than a year from now.
Quote: There is absolutely no reason to pay more than 1 years profits for a BPO.
Maybe not for you. Way I see it. If I buy a BPO for 4b, and it makes me 1b this year. It makes me another 1b next year, and the year after. Now, I decide to sell the bpo. Assuming things go the way I believe they will, I will sell that bpo again at 4b or so.
Therefore, a 4B investment with a 7B return over 3 years.
Let's brake that down to percentages shall we? 1 billion profit per year over an investment of 4 billion means a ROI of about 2.08% per month. Not very profitable for something that involves that much work. And that's not even counting ISK tied up because of operating costs for maintaining a continuous production line.
Hell, even earning back your investment in 1 year is only a ROI of 8.33% per month excluding operating costs. Including operating costs it would be about 6-7% I estimate.
And that's all based on a steady tech 2 BPO market, if your BPO does drop in value, you're screwed even more.
signature: private investors wanted - 8% fixed return per month (30.5 days) |
Ki Shodan
Gallente deep blue
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Posted - 2007.07.05 16:48:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Ricdic Hmm, I dont remember that story. Do you have linkage, or can you summarise it a litte?
It was so old, back 3 eve guardian servers ago. The mention is worth it as not just a few old timers will remember Morkt. The story itself... meh. Not a fraction as memorable as the man.
Dunno, if the following is the story you are talking about, but it fits somehow into this thread.
The Miner 2 Market: Case Study Example or Unique Event? (Written by: J'Maybe Keens) --
Evemail me, if my name is used as guarantor! |
David H'Levi
Sniggerdly
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Posted - 2007.07.05 18:12:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Ray McCormack Edited by: Ray McCormack on 04/07/2007 17:05:41
Originally by: David H'Levi T2 has been sustained in no small part due to a huge price bubble: lack of supply and well-organized cartels have been pushing the prices through the roof. I would guess that we are still seeing the bubble bursting. I wouldn't discount the possibility of a reseed, either.
I would suggest investing in something a bit more stable, with a higher payoff and less risk of collapse: FIN would be a good bet, for example. It's risky, because you're giving your money away to another player, but Eefrit has proven himself to be at least marginally trust worthy.
So you're advising people to not invest in T2 BPOs but rather invest in a corporation that invests in T2 BPOs?
Don't get me wrong, FIN is a decent investment. But it's only remained so due to the ability to buy T2 BPOs that give a higher rate of return than it itself does.
Edit : After re-reading your argument it seems you mean FIN-U.
That's exactly what I'm advising, for three simple reasons:
(1) FIN has a guaranteed return, so unless the company completely folds, you will still receive decent profits on your investment.
(2) FIN does all the work for you, freeing up time for other endeavors that will also make money.
(3) FIN is diversified. Instead of purchasing one BPO, your effectively purchasing shares in dozens. Even if one BPO fails completely, there will be others to balance out that loss, which lowers your risk. As much as you may love me, your signature must pertain to your in-game persona, and thus I must remove it. -Conuion Meow |
Ardent Rellik
Gallente MURAKAMI INDUSTRIES
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Posted - 2007.07.05 20:18:00 -
[26]
Yeop, it is crashing and burning, thats why one of the richest players in EVE has invested hundreds of billions of ISK into hac/command/recon bpo market. I am referring to Khatred here, of course.
Man has more isk than god, and will only make more, because all the panicked hobbitses sold their bpos to him.
Diversification is the key. The more bpos one has the better are the profits. The more streamlined production, the better are the profits. He got rid of all the less valuable stuff, with the exception of the few overpriced trinkets on the in game auction and invested isk into something that would make him untouchable when it comes to T2 production. Man is a genius, wish I had his isk.
I predict a huge disillusionment from all those who sold their bpos surreptitiously.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2007.07.05 20:23:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Ardent Rellik Yeop, it is crashing and burning, thats why one of the richest players in EVE has invested hundreds of billions of ISK into hac/command/recon bpo market. I am referring to Khatred here, of course.
Man has more isk than god, and will only make more, because all the panicked hobbitses sold their bpos to him.
Diversification is the key. The more bpos one has the better are the profits. The more streamlined production, the better are the profits. He got rid of all the less valuable stuff, with the exception of the few overpriced trinkets on the in game auction and invested isk into something that would make him untouchable when it comes to T2 production. Man is a genius, wish I had his isk.
I predict a huge disillusionment from all those who sold their bpos surreptitiously.
He'll be in for a rude awakening once T3 hits and invention is in it's finished form assuming he does nothing to change course.
That is, however disingenuous. He's smart enough to know that and is merely riding the wave of BPO prices like the smart business man he is.
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Jennifer Meek
Gallente Planck Bubble Generation Technologies
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Posted - 2007.07.05 21:38:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria He'll be in for a rude awakening once T3 hits and invention is in it's finished form assuming he does nothing to change course.
That is, however disingenuous. He's smart enough to know that and is merely riding the wave of BPO prices like the smart business man he is.
Do you know something that we all do not know?
No?
That's what I thought. ---
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Dal Thrax
Nova Inc. Pride - Honor - Duty
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Posted - 2007.07.05 22:17:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Ardent Rellik Yeop, it is crashing and burning, thats why one of the richest players in EVE has invested hundreds of billions of ISK into hac/command/recon bpo market. I am referring to Khatred here, of course.
Man has more isk than god, and will only make more, because all the panicked hobbitses sold their bpos to him.
Diversification is the key. The more bpos one has the better are the profits. The more streamlined production, the better are the profits. He got rid of all the less valuable stuff, with the exception of the few overpriced trinkets on the in game auction and invested isk into something that would make him untouchable when it comes to T2 production. Man is a genius, wish I had his isk.
I predict a huge disillusionment from all those who sold their bpos surreptitiously.
Oh Khatred is a real person? Sorry to go all tinfoil hat here but I always thought (based on the first Guinne pigs posts that I know of) that he was and acquisition front for BoB at acquire strategic BPOs. MAR II BPO's may not have the worlds best profit margin right now but if you're fighting a war...
Dal
Originally by: Seleene It seems to me that 'independence' is a relative term these days, determined mainly by the size and number of your guns.
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Eefrit
Eve Financial Services
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Posted - 2007.07.05 22:25:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Dal Thrax Oh Khatred is a real person?
Yes he is. It is easy to see when BoB buy something because normally one of the CEOs or COOs places a bid on an auction.
/Eefrit
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