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Montaire
Lacedaemon.
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Posted - 2007.09.16 13:47:00 -
[1]
I am expanding my portfolio right now, looking for ways to turn short term cash windfalls into long term cash generators and I gaze upon T2 BPO's.
But part of me is a little worried about all the T2 BPO holder hate I see around. And now that Invention (a good thing for the market, have no doubt) is coming to center stange, Im vaguely worried about the long term prospects of T2 BPO's.
The new T2 ships wont have BPO's at all.
Is anyone else worried that CCP will remove T2 BPO's at some point all together ? I recall hearing about that (converting them to max run BPC's) but despite digging couldnt find anything to confirm that.
On the other hand, has anyone seen a CCP post saying they would confirm keeping these in game ? They represent one of the very few "Investment Level" items in EVE.
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Archbishop
Amarr PIE Inc.
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Posted - 2007.09.16 14:49:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Archbishop on 16/09/2007 14:51:09
While the way they handed out these BPO with a "lottery" was one of the most unbalanced things they've done in game history overall I can't see them removing the BPO from the game. People have spent real isk for these and they'd basically be losing their entire investment.
However there may be precedence for this.
Way back when BPC's were unlimited run. I remember several "pools" where people got together after Beta and pitched in to buy a BS BPO which would then be copied and everyone given a copy. It was basically like creating another BPO because they were unlimited run (only the BPC couldn't be copied themselves). I know people like myself who have invested billions of isk in BPOs were very unhappy with this as it cut into our industrial base with everyone "building their own".
Eventually CCP did not only make BPC's run limited but they also "converted" all those unlimited run BPC's into limited ones. Now they were very high limit ones. I had a couple including a Scorpion (which I paid 200m for which was a fortune back then) and some Iteron BP and all were converted to BPC with runs on them. The Iterons had like 200 runs and the Scorp was about the same. This way there was profit potential but not nearly what there was.
By putting larger run limits on the newly converted BPC's they basically threw a carrot to the owners of these expensive copies who invested isk while satisfying the need for BPC's to be creatable for others to build. I can see them doing something like that with T2 BPO in the future.
Example: Take all T2 BPO and make them limited run BPC's however reduce the mineral/component need on them by 50% and make them high run (like 2000 ships or 10000 mods). Do this only for ones that have changed hands through purchase (auction). Those that are with their original owners who got them would be reduced to half that amount of runs. I can really see them doing something like this in the future because they've done it before.
This would allow these builders who invested isk in the BPO's to recoup their investment at least yet show there is an "end" to the gravy train. Honestly the T2 lottery is about the worst thing CCP has done for this game and having gotten four T2 BPO myself (all mods and guns - cheap stuff) I have to say seeing some mission runner who never built a ship in his life suddenly be "gifted" a T2 ship BPO worth billions of isk when he can't even build it was really frustrating.
We all remember these "money machine" BPOs that turned up (like the T2 ships) that ran with 500% profit margins and the way people who already made good isk on missions and got standings bonuses and faction stuff also got these "cash card BPOs" for the "money tree" of eve. It so unbalanced the game it's unbelievable. Only now with invention are we starting to get that balance back and allowing people with industrial and science skills to earn what they deserve.
Archie
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.09.16 15:37:00 -
[3]
Invention cost analysis Invention sets the ceiling on T2 prices. Invention is a lot less profitable as building from a T2 BPO. A T2 BPO owner can always undercut an inventor, so can always sell his goods. So, T2 BPOs that were insanely profitable are still highly profitable, but not quite as much as they used to. Inventors go for around 10%-25% markups tops, but at the same sales price, a T2 BPO owner would make up to 100%-200% markup, and also churn out items 25%-50% faster.
The only thing that changed is the value of T2 BPOs, because the profit margins dropped heavily (some items used to have 5000% or even higher markup). But T2 BPOs are still valuable. Also, there's no reason for CCP nowadays to remove existing T2 BPOs, nor is there any need to turn them into limited-run copies.
The problem however lies with "stuff" that's not even worth manufacturing from a T2 BPO, let alone invent it. Sadly, that's the case for probably half the T2 items in existance, maybe more. The T2 prices are already as stable as they come, they won't go much lower unless CCP tweaks datacore gain rates.
Bottom line, yes, it's a good investment if you know which one to pick, but be mindful of the price asked for one T2 BPO... it should be at least dozens of times lower as it used to be one year ago, even hundreds of times lower (depending on item), or almost be given out for free (for those "not even worth manufacturing" ones). _
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Vrizuh
Eve Defence Force Praesidium Libertatis
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Posted - 2007.09.16 17:02:00 -
[4]
Had I the money I'd probably buy up the t2 ammo bpos simply cos I don't believe faction will be ammo of choice forever.
I probably have no money cos I do stupid things like that.
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Benvie
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Posted - 2007.09.16 17:10:00 -
[5]
I seriously seriously doubt CCP will remove existing BPOs or do anything with them. They're a relic, a decent money maker, but they really aren't even hugely unbalanced anymore nor do they really hurt anything. They're valuable sure and again, a decent money maker, but on any item that is hugely popular the large majority of production will be coming from invention anyway.
As far as investment into bpos, it's a smart idea IF you can get the bpo for the right price. Therein lies the key. I think a lot of people still overvalue bpos because of how hugely profitable they once were. They still are profitable, but not at much, and you need to do a profit analysis for current and future expected values, not fairy tale land of a year ago. I see prices on most popular tech2 items going down further from where they are. Not a huge amount but some, because there still is significant profit margin on most of them even for inventors (at least ones who know what they're doing). Right now the main thing keeping that profit margin is barrier to entry (skills, ISK for ship production) and lack of understanding of invention in order to minimize cost. Over time both these will reduce as more characters with the necessary skills exist and people understand invention more and more.
Any bpo price analysis I think needs to take these into account OR you need to be investing in one for the very long term (2-3 years) because that might be how long it takes for the investment to return.
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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.09.17 03:42:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Ramblin Man on 17/09/2007 03:43:20
If they do, I quit. (And yes, you might be able to get some of my stuff, depending on who else is in my EVE-life at the time)
To do so after remaining silent on the issue for this long is worse than irresponsible: it's downright contempt for your players.
PS: No, CCP has never said anything about converting them -- just everyone else who didn't choose to spend their ISK buying one and is ****ed off that they don't have one.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.09.17 03:45:00 -
[7]
Yup, they are definitely going to turn them all into BPC's. It was said multiple times by CCP.
Having said that... I will take all your T2 BPO's off your hands now for 3 months production costs... since I'm a nice guy.
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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.09.17 04:10:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Shadarle Yup, they are definitely going to turn them all into BPC's. It was said multiple times by CCP.
Having said that... I will take all your T2 BPO's off your hands now for 3 months production costs... since I'm an nice guy ass.
(Apparently everyone, including me, is feeling mature tonight)
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Vrizuh
Eve Defence Force Praesidium Libertatis
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Posted - 2007.09.17 14:44:00 -
[9]
Yeh, I hear that with the new dictor cruisers coming in nobody will fly destroyer dictors.
I will accept your sabre BPOs. 10mil isk sound ok?
(is it too early to try this?)
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Montaire
Lacedaemon.
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Posted - 2007.09.18 04:43:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Vrizuh Yeh, I hear that with the new dictor cruisers coming in nobody will fly destroyer dictors.
I will accept your sabre BPOs. 10mil isk sound ok?
(is it too early to try this?)
Actually I expect the new Dictor Cruiser to have some sort of small, drone thing. It travels at 20k and has a 70% webber on it. Or to lauch a speed-killing missile. Somthing like that.
It will have a secondary component of some kind. And it will target speed ships.
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