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pod index
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Posted - 2007.10.01 12:33:00 -
[1]
Can you guess how many POD KILLS will occur in a 24 hour period. Do you want to make millions? Easy gambling format.
Game Mechanics
Every week can you guess how many POD KILLS will occur in 10 named systems
Game time will be 1 gaming day (Sunday).
Number of POD KILLS recorded in the 10 systems at midnight -00.05 Sunday night/Monday morning GMT.
The game will be conducted under a Tote format.
10 gambling ranges will be offered on the total number of POD KILLS in the 10 systems.
Bet units: 1 million ISK.
1 million ISK minimum bet.
Any maximum.
The gambling site will take 10% of total amount wagered, and the remaining winnings will be divided amongst winners picking the correct slot.
Payout will be per unit (1 million ISK) bet.
Winners paid Monday/Tuesday
New gaming week starts Monday (for following Sunday). Bets accepted until Sunday 00.01 GMT.
Ten Named Systems
The systems will be constant every week (7 empire, 3 0.0)
Empire: Rancer, Amamake, Ingunn, Otou, Egghelende, Gonditsu, Mai
0.0: XS-XAY, HED-GP, PF-346
How to Bet
Send Eve mail to POD INDEX with following details:
Amount bet: Range:
Send ISK.
When eve-mail and funds received are matched bet is placed.
First week Gambling ranges for Sunday 7th October
1. <360 2. 360-399 3. 400-439 4. 440-479 5. 480-519 6. 520-559 7. 560-599 8. 600-639 9. 640-679 10. >680
history: Number of Pod Kills in the 10 systems on Sunday 30th September was 501
Gaurantees/Anti-Scam
1. POD Index has been set up as an ALT character to receive and pay wagers 2. A corp called POD Index has been set up for auditing purposes 3. Tinuvin is my main and is backing this site and owns 60% of the shares in the corp 4. E-bank Ricdic is backing the plan and has 40% of the shares in the corp 5. Full screen shots of money received/payed will be made available to E-bank and further auditors upon request
Extra Comments
Q: Can the amount of POD Kills be influenced? A: Definitely. Go kill more PODS. It adds fun to the game if you can influence the outcome.
First time that a gambling game has been set up that depends on the amount of carnage and lawlessness in EVE.
GO KILL STUFF!!!
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tinuvin
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Posted - 2007.10.01 12:34:00 -
[2]
I confirm that Tinuvin is my main, and pod index is my ALT
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Fury Banker
Fury Bank Corp
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Posted - 2007.10.01 13:20:00 -
[3]
How do you plan to deal with someone betting big on the highest band then repeatedly podding their own alts?
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Fury Banker
Fury Bank Corp
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Posted - 2007.10.01 13:26:00 -
[4]
Originally by: pod index
4. E-bank Ricdic is backing the plan and has 40% of the shares in the corp
What does "backing the plan" mean? Does it mean he's guaranteeing payouts? Or are you just paying him 40% of profits to be able to use his name with no associated benefit to gamblers?
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pod index
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Posted - 2007.10.01 14:22:00 -
[5]
In reply to both Fury's posts.
1. I did consider the ALT-podding, and if people want to try that game - good luck. If the number of POD kills goes up significantly the ranges would change for the following week. I do not mind how people bet or how people play.
2. E-bank Ricdic holding 40% of shares. I did give him 40% of the corp to use his name. He has not given a personal gaurantee of the funds bet. At the same time I am giving him complete access to the corp for auditing purposes, and we have been working on the plan for some time with his input. If he didn't think the scheme was honest and a sound business he wouldn't want his name associated to it. If I was scamming people his name would be effected the most.
When he comes on he can comment
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FastLearner
Fury Holdings Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.10.01 14:52:00 -
[6]
Originally by: pod index In reply to both Fury's posts.
1. I did consider the ALT-podding, and if people want to try that game - good luck. If the number of POD kills goes up significantly the ranges would change for the following week. I do not mind how people bet or how people play.
2. E-bank Ricdic holding 40% of shares. I did give him 40% of the corp to use his name. He has not given a personal gaurantee of the funds bet. At the same time I am giving him complete access to the corp for auditing purposes, and we have been working on the plan for some time with his input. If he didn't think the scheme was honest and a sound business he wouldn't want his name associated to it. If I was scamming people his name would be effected the most.
When he comes on he can comment
The problem I see is this:
Noone is gonna bet on anything other than the highest band - and those that do bet on it will be making sure that band gets hit. One of those 0.0 systems is very near my home - so if there was security on the bets I'd happily wager a few billion on the top band.
Is there any guaranteed minimum payout? Even if it's just a guarantee that winning bets get at least their stake back? Otherwise I can see there being billions bet on the top band, nothing other than a few small bets from total idiots on the others, and winning bets getting back about 90-91% of their stake after 10% is creamed off the top.
It's fine saying you don't care how people bet - but a gambling business where anyone with even half a brain knows the result in advance doesn't strike me as a very good business proposition.
(Oh - I'm alt of Fury Banker, just swapped accounts to post Fury Holdings results).
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pod index
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Posted - 2007.10.01 15:06:00 -
[7]
The first week might be more difficult, as I am going off history from previous months. The ranges can be moved upwards in following weeks and the results won't stay the same.
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Ricdic
Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz
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Posted - 2007.10.01 16:39:00 -
[8]
Let me clear this up.
Firstly, I am not guaranteeing against scam. Tinuvin is beginning to make a name for himself and this is a fun little venture he is starting up. Having my name on the books is there for auditing purposes. For each of these gambling events he will send me his screenshots for each region so it can be verified that a fraud isn't being committed.
I will make sure Tinuvin understands this, not a security against scam, but a way to verify that results are legit.
Unless it has been mentioned above, I also want a cut-off date for bets, with a list of all betters names, bet and chosen bands sent to me before each 24 hour period begins. This way we can ensure Tinuvin doesn't stick his name onto a band when it wins.
The business plan itself is interesting and people may attempt to fiddle with the results, hence why I recommended he choose 10 random systems every period. It wouldn't be hard to get a data dump of every system in Eve, and run a randomiser on it to pick the first 10 systems so the gamble can't be influenced at all.
Need Empire Research Slots. Click here |
FastLearner
Fury Holdings Brutally Clever Empire
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Posted - 2007.10.01 16:47:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Ricdic Let me clear this up.
Firstly, I am not guaranteeing against scam. Tinuvin is beginning to make a name for himself and this is a fun little venture he is starting up. Having my name on the books is there for auditing purposes. For each of these gambling events he will send me his screenshots for each region so it can be verified that a fraud isn't being committed.
I will make sure Tinuvin understands this, not a security against scam, but a way to verify that results are legit.
Unless it has been mentioned above, I also want a cut-off date for bets, with a list of all betters names, bet and chosen bands sent to me before each 24 hour period begins. This way we can ensure Tinuvin doesn't stick his name onto a band when it wins.
The business plan itself is interesting and people may attempt to fiddle with the results, hence why I recommended he choose 10 random systems every period. It wouldn't be hard to get a data dump of every system in Eve, and run a randomiser on it to pick the first 10 systems so the gamble can't be influenced at all.
I'm not sure you appreciate the extent to which it can be influenceed as it stands. It's not that someone can make one band more likely than others, it's that one person can absolutely 100% guarantee that the result will be the top band.
Randomising regions is an idea - but if you're going to randomly pick regions, why not just use the bonus ball from a lottery like anyone else? That way there's no scope for argument or fiddling of the random generator number.
It also seems rather a strange choice to allow betting up until 4 minutes before close: didn't anyone think that maybe, just possibly, smart people may look at the number of pod-kills around then - and immediately be able to rule out most of the bands.
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pod index
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Posted - 2007.10.01 17:46:00 -
[10]
Clarify a few points.
1. The gaming period is Sunday (00.01 - midnight)
2. Bets will be accepted up to the beginning of the 24 hour gaming period. All bets placed after this point will be returned.
3. Pod Kill data will be collected at 00.01 - 00.05 Monday GMT (just after midnight on Sunday)
4. If it is clear that an enormous number of pod kills occur to try to influence the results, I can as part of the game mechanics change the ranges for the following week. As an example the last 3 ranges could be very wide/high that it will be difficult to predict how much killing will need to be done to ensure you would reach slot 10. e.g slot 7 800-1500 slot 8 1500-2000 slot 9 2000-3000 slot 10 >3000
5. I do believe that the firsts weeks numbers will be the most skewed in terms of results but future range setting will be more simple.
6. I will not bet with main or ALT, and E-bank will be able to see if any bets are made after cut off point.
7. I will not do randomized systems for reasons of potential mistrust and it may be more fun to see how much pod killing ensues.
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Sphynx Stormlord
Gallente Anqara Tech
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Posted - 2007.10.01 18:39:00 -
[11]
The flaw is having a band which is of unlimited width (ie >something finite).
Why not, instead, have an unlimited number of bands, all the same sise. And if no one picks a winner, have a rollover.
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Sarah McTeef
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Posted - 2007.10.01 23:14:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord The flaw is having a band which is of unlimited width (ie >something finite). Why not, instead, have an unlimited number of bands, all the same sise. And if no one picks a winner, have a rollover.
This. The game is broken. Everyone bets the top band, then makes sure it gets hit, everyone wins except the idiots who can't figure out the hole. As another poster mentioned accounting for the idiots, people won't actually be winning anything after any house cut is taken.
Not to be overly repetitive; The game is broken. It can be fixed, we have the technology, ect...
Also you have made no mention of your payout structure, or any management fees taken from the pot. Anyone that wanted to play would really want to know that. |
SuiPoh
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Posted - 2007.10.02 12:33:00 -
[13]
Why don't you make it a unique bet, like the nearest number to the actual pod kills but it has to be unique as in more than 1 bet on a certain number will void it. ( say actual pod kill is 4. 2 (or more) ppl bet on 1,3 and 4 but only 1 person bet on 2. so no.2 kills wins.
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Pang Grohl
Gallente Sudo Corp
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Posted - 2007.10.03 20:34:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Sarah McTeef
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord The flaw is having a band which is of unlimited width (ie >something finite). Why not, instead, have an unlimited number of bands, all the same sise. And if no one picks a winner, have a rollover.
This. The game is broken. Everyone bets the top band, then makes sure it gets hit, everyone wins except the idiots who can't figure out the hole. As another poster mentioned accounting for the idiots, people won't actually be winning anything after any house cut is taken.
Not to be overly repetitive; The game is broken. It can be fixed, we have the technology, ect...
Also you have made no mention of your payout structure, or any management fees taken from the pot. Anyone that wanted to play would really want to know that.
Why would anyone but the investors care about how the house take is split?
Just to make sure this is clear. The way I read it, if I bet 1m on a winning slot, I only get 1m back. Or am I mistaken, and I split the pot - 10% with the other units bet on the winnings slot.
Si non adjuvas, noces (If you're not helping, you're hurting) |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.10.03 21:55:00 -
[15]
Generally if the bet is 1 million and the payout is 1 million then this means you get 2 million if you bet correctly. As you do not lose your initial bet, you get it back as well as being payed 1 million. Thus in the case of a tie you get your 1 million back. If you lose you lose the 1 million.
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Letias
Caldari Teikoku Trade Conglomerate
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Posted - 2007.10.03 22:08:00 -
[16]
why not just make it random systems and player chooses number so there is always a winner. have it 1 mill per guess and whoever gets closests get the pot, minus your cut (admin fess whatnot). This way no one could know if they are influencing the number or not and makes sure that people only lose becuase they picked the wrong number which is completly random, no one looses because the pre arranged bands were out of whack.
Unless you got very scientific and worked out average pod kills in the game for any given week then went and had a program randomly pick 10 systems and find the most common number of pods your guess would be entirly a guess. Even doing that wouldnt make your odds that much better and you would only have a head start for the first few weeks till people began to catch on what the numbers were likley to be around, if they eve stay the same!
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pod index
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Posted - 2007.10.03 22:12:00 -
[17]
the way a tote works:
The total prize pool is divided by the winning players.
example:
total pool bet = 100 million ISK pod index take = 10% (10 million) Prize pool = 90 million ISK
Pretend 6 people pick correct slot. Payout would be 90 divided by total bet in that bracket. 5 people bet 1 million and 1 person bet 10 million. Total = 15 million Payout would be (90/15) = 6 million ISK won per million ISK bet. 5 players would receive 6 million, and 1 player 60 million Payout odds would average 6 to 1.
The total house take is always 10% and there is no other management fee.
THE GAME WILL BE RELAUNCHED NEXT MONDAY.
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pod index
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Posted - 2007.10.03 22:19:00 -
[18]
Game mechanic chages that will occur next week.
1. I plan to keep the 10 systems constant. 2. Not have infinite slots to allow players to dramatically influence the number of pod kills 3. If number of pod kills isn't in the slot ranges the prize pool will carry over to the following week. 4. If total betting pool is under 100 million, there will be no HOUSE (pod index) take.
Happy to discuss and receive further suggestions before next week. Rather take the time to get the mechanics right then release a flawed game.
Thanks for all the feedback
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