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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 11:59:00 -
[1]
What kind of reason do you guys see?
I have 3 reasons on my radar so far:
1) Resellers think they can get their part of the T2-BS cake as demand will rise above normal supply.. wouldn't they have bought waaaayyyyyy earlier?
2) Resellers think that the recently occured POS-Bugs and their exploitation will led to a dip in advanced material supply for the next time.. this makes more sense to me as the above, as you need to read the forums to get this kind of information and realize it's consequences.
3) T2-component-producer rising production for the new stuff and buy nearly everthing they can get hold of.. hm, same as 1) as I don't think they wouldn't plan beforehand - I buy weekly and the traded volume per day is BIG over all
I don't think that it's the T2-producers.. escpecially the T2-BS-producers, as I can't see the price-rise comming from the T2-components - they're relatively stable from my point of view in forge and essence.. it's the advanced materials that rised in price over the last 24hrs.
Crystalline Carbonide Armor Plates: 100/u to 130/u Sylramic Fibres: 190/u to 280/u Hypersynaptic Fibres: 4100/u to 4450/u
However.. I bought more than half of the stuff I needed cheaper in oursu today as jita started to screw up my calculations.
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Macdeth
Ephemeral Misgivings
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:05:00 -
[2]
Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good. Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
Even though most of the information's available ahead of time enabling informed people to make a mint, most people just aren't so obsessed as to spend countless hours poring over patch notes, messing about with things that may change again on the test server, etc.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:28:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 08/12/2007 12:30:07
Originally by: Macdeth Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good.
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed? Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Originally by: Macdeth Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
That's why I wrote that the t2-component prices WHEREN'T affected.. their prices had rised slowly over the last two weeks. It's clearly the price-spike in the last 24hrs on the advanced materials I wonder about..
Originally by: Macdeth Even though most of the information's available ahead of time enabling informed people to make a mint, most people just aren't so obsessed as to spend countless hours poring over patch notes, messing about with things that may change again on the test server, etc.
Another one.. if I buy the advanced materials low and sell them as t2 components for a markup and also buy t2 components low and sell the finished t2 product for a markup I make more than by buying the advanced materials, build the t2 components from it and sell the finished t2 product with an markup.. I even make more money if I just concentrate on one of those fields.
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Mr Horizontal
Gallente KIA Corp KIA Alliance
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:28:00 -
[4]
--- meh. |
Macdeth
Ephemeral Misgivings
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Posted - 2007.12.08 12:57:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Macdeth on 08/12/2007 13:01:38
Originally by: Tres Farmer
Originally by: Macdeth Invention success rates were improved drastically, so now everybody finds themselves with a lot more T2 BPCs they need components to build the finished good.
Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Lots of people do, because they have the spare factory slots for the extra 10% profit and think it's worthwhile. Second, because volume producers love their 30 day batches, finished component prices trail behind the spot market for input materials.
Quote: Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Most people are dumb, what can I say? This is why it's easy for people with capital to turn around and make tens of billions in a few days around patch times, almost every time.
Originally by: Macdeth Additionally, you've got a whole bunch of people racing to sell the new ships for massive profits due to undersupply and they don't care what they pay because their margins will be so great.
Quote: That's why I wrote that the t2-component prices WHEREN'T affected.. their prices had rised slowly over the last two weeks. It's clearly the price-spike in the last 24hrs on the advanced materials I wonder about..
Lagging indicator & all that. Once the slow people get into trying to build the t2 freighters some more, those precise things you mentioned will get slammed because of the gallente industrial 5 dominance unless a lot more capacity has come online in preparation for it, and I doubt it has.
Edit:
Also I skimmed your message pretty badly, both times Gallente T2 jump freighters are your entire answer.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 15:30:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Macdeth
Originally by: Tres Farmer Hm.. how many invetors are building the t2 components by their own? Especially if you look at production times and units needed?
Lots of people do, because they have the spare factory slots for the extra 10% profit and think it's worthwhile.
Possible but unlikely if you look at the numbers of needed components and their buildtime.. especially when you consider that you need even more components now with rised chances.
Originally by: Macdeth Second, because volume producers love their 30 day batches, finished component prices trail behind the spot market for input materials.
As I said.. the t2 component prices anticipated the advanced material prices AND the price-hike of the advanced materials happened in the last 24hrs.. this is the opposite of your view!
Originally by: Macdeth
Originally by: Tres Farmer Next.. how many inventors should now buy for higher prices if the success-rates where higher, so that sales-prices for the t2-gear will tank? (I mean ok, there are those 'I get free cores- and decryptors-people, but they don't make the majority of the market, do they?)
Most people are dumb, what can I say? This is why it's easy for people with capital to turn around and make tens of billions in a few days around patch times, almost every time.
Sounds more like advantages got used by anticipating game-mechanic-changes.. but you're right.. some a dumb
Originally by: Macdeth Also I skimmed your message pretty badly, both times Gallente T2 jump freighters are your entire answer.
Hm.. doesn't explain the spike, as jump frighter build ops will have made their preparations weeks before. Otherwise this kind of business wouldn't be doable at all.. I mean it's not as we're speaking about some lousy t1 friggs here. The logistics behind those kind of biz simply can't work like that.. So I don't think the T2-JF-builders are to 'blame'
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.08 16:43:00 -
[7]
I can say this much regarding the spike in some t2 material prices: I'm helping it.
At first I was playing to the market. Making some good returns (50% - 100%+ markup) on various goods that Benvie had me stockpile. Then, 24 hours later, we noticed that some goods we sold for 100% markup were now selling for 400% markup. I then realized, I've got a crap load of supplies that are becoming quite rare.
So now, I'm charging whatever the hell I think I should get. Not what the market is willing to bear. And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices.
And, yes. Someone is going to get caught holding the bag. The idea is to move fast enough, sure enough, and firmly enough to get out of the game before the bottom drops.
This is market pvp.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.08 17:06:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Shar Tegral ..And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices..
I'm not whining.. how do you come to this conclusion? Just wanted to share some thoughts with othres what they think about this.. especially in relation to the pos-bugs.
And gratz to your achievement. Keep it up mate!
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Aladdin Insane
Hampshire Massive DIstributed
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Posted - 2007.12.08 18:08:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Aladdin Insane on 08/12/2007 18:08:09
Originally by: Shar Tegral
So now, I'm charging whatever the hell I think I should get. Not what the market is willing to bear. And if you don't like it, don't buy it. I'm sure those who have bought it will in turn make their profit as best as they can while you sit on your bum whining about the prices.
And, yes. Someone is going to get caught holding the bag. The idea is to move fast enough, sure enough, and firmly enough to get out of the game before the bottom drops.
This is market pvp.
Wise words, made quite a pretty packet today selling at prices i, not the market want. _____________________ Eve is not a sandbox Sandboxes always have kitty poo in them
Selling Moon locations. 2x advanced mat http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=6530 |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2007.12.08 19:32:00 -
[10]
By the way, Shar, when's Benvie's "trinity market sniping" IPO liquidating,and how does the return look like up to this point ?
1|2|3|4|5. |
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.08 19:54:00 -
[11]
Check Jita prices ...
I think the explanation for this is simple ... While the build costs for the new ships where known long in advance, there was no consumption, just virtual demand.
The real demand doesnt kick in before t2 BS and Jumpfreighters are installed in the factories. This will be in about 2-3 days. Now people start to realise that their 5b pile of components only gets them 10-20 Marauders built. And not everyone could afford a 5b pile anyway ...
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Leowen
Industrial Giants
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Posted - 2007.12.08 23:18:00 -
[12]
I don't see why this is different to any other patch day. I started to stockpile advanced mats about a week ago and have topped it up in the last few days - I guess I'm holding about 20b worth at the mo. Expect the price increases to dip after the spike as the initial surge of demand is fulfilled, and then stay above historical rates as existing POS output will not meet demand generated by all of the new ships.
Some materials will be more affected than others - the ones I've stocked up on of course :-)
But really - this is nothing new. T2 Components will be the next to surge in response to materials costs. 2-3 days from now, reactors will be 60k, armor plates will be 15-20k, etc. And I'll cash in.
Market PvP ftw!!
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SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:24:00 -
[13]
you and me both ____ __ ________ _sig below_ devs and gms cant modify my sig if they tried! _lies above_ CCP Morpheus was here Morpheus Fails. You need colors!! -Kaemonn [yellow]Kaem |
Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:25:00 -
[14]
As a T2 component producer, anybody in this market who didnt expect a spike in prices is stupid.
On the flipside, Dusk Blade should be providing some a nice christmas bonus thanks to this :)
Improve Market Competition! |
SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:33:00 -
[15]
merry christmas ____ __ ________ _sig below_ devs and gms cant modify my sig if they tried! _lies above_ CCP Morpheus was here Morpheus Fails. You need colors!! -Kaemonn [yellow]Kaem |
Sphynx Stormlord
Gallente Anqara Tech
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:37:00 -
[16]
So, the interesting question is, at what point is it time to buy T2 ships to refine for components?
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 00:50:00 -
[17]
And when you thought it couldnt get any worse for EOS pilots ...
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SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.09 01:04:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord So, the interesting question is, at what point is it time to buy T2 ships to refine for components?
right now unless you want to make 10% in 7 days of what you could have made in 17 ____ __ ________ _sig below_ devs and gms cant modify my sig if they tried! _lies above_ CCP Morpheus was here Morpheus Fails. You need colors!! -Kaemonn [yellow]Kaem |
Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.09 01:44:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 09/12/2007 01:49:16
So you're all saying, that it's because of simple new-shiny-t2-gear, right?
K..
Just thought that those POS-Bugs could have something to do with it, as 2 days after patch everything was ok with the prices (especially with the t2 components, which should had risen before the advanced materials, if this is induced by late t2-gear-producing-entities). As the rumors about POSs-taken-down-news in forums got more in front of recognizing, the resellers could had seen their chance and bought the advanced materials, as supplies of them will suffer first..
However.. I'm in no position to have a clue about the status of the POSs so I'll take your words. Thx for sharing info and may your trades be fruitfull.
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 02:15:00 -
[20]
The POS bugs might play a role, but i think you just had wrong information.
I know that the entire Reactor Unit chain got bought out 2 hours before patch downtime (and relisted at crazy prices)
Most adv. materials where stable at the time of your post, with 3 exceptions: Fermionics Sylramic fibres
and Ferrogel, wich was steady at 16
There was no reason to target t2 components unless you could be sure that ferrogel would hold above 20. You cannot manipulate t2c prices with a spread of 10k+ per unit, everyone will cancel their HAC BPO jobs and build t2 comps instead.
Ferrogel is steady above 20 now, so everything with ferrogel in it got bought out pretty safely.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 02:49:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers Fermionics Sylramic fibres Ferrogel
Rather ironic that you should list those items. I have gobs of them. In fact I sell Sylramic Fibers at 320.25% of purchase price and Fermionics at 284.23% of purchase price. Ferrogel, now there is where I think I'm going to really stick it to the market. Hard. All this at Benvie's direction of course.
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 03:27:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Argenton Sayvers on 09/12/2007 03:28:52 As long as noone comes forth and puts 300b of ferrogel on the market, 30k+ is possible. Not a single* BS has been put in factory yet ... interesting times ahead of us...
*some exceptions possible if some rumors are true ...
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 03:47:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers As long as noone comes forth and puts 300b of ferrogel on the market, 30k+ is possible.
Interesting that you should point that out. Not only do I think it is possible, I think it will soon be a reality. If you do your research you will notice that in these three products, since you pointed them out, demand is far outweighing supply. And, since I'm moving some of these issues, I can see that there is production motivated purchasing happening not just speculation driven purchases. The difference is easy to see because speculators looking to jump in buy in round bulk numbers (or your entire lot at once), speculators looking to figure out who their competition is buy 1 of your product (gee, how many people need just one Fermionic Condensate?), and finally small time producers (which is going to be the bulk of the market) mostly just buy what they need right now. PS: Akita T, I'll do a report on RDIR so that investors can see where some things are at and where somethings are not. Benvie and I discussed it and we both think that we can start offering buy backs soon. Not that many will take it but some people might want to get out before the bottom falls out. Besides I'm just giddy with presenting such a dilemma to my investors. "Do I stay in or do I cash out" is a cruel place to be but it as Benvie & I are sweating the same issue (with the fund itself) I figure it's only fair to have the investors in the same boat.
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Ricdic
Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.09 05:03:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Ricdic on 09/12/2007 05:06:23
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers Not a single* BS has been put in factory yet ... interesting times ahead of us...
I am pretty sure this is incorrect. I got a small co-op happening and last I heard production had started. Actually, I am certain as I have a bpc linked in my evemail!
Linkage for proofzors
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Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.09 05:22:00 -
[25]
Edited by: Argenton Sayvers on 09/12/2007 05:24:22 I doubt anyone has BS Construction IV yet ... or will have it for the next 30h.
So i guess its time to gamble? Wts Ferrogel 45k each, bulk quantity.
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Ricdic
Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.09 05:51:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Argenton Sayvers Edited by: Argenton Sayvers on 09/12/2007 05:24:22 I doubt anyone has BS Construction IV yet ... or will have it for the next 30h.
Good call I missed that requirement. I don't do the production of BS aspect
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.09 08:02:00 -
[27]
Hmm, any POS with a cyno generator on it no longer produces anything (mining or reacting). And you can't turn the cyno generator off... Fun.
This coupled with the bridges means that supply is being turned off at just the time demand is being ramped up.
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.09 11:24:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Admiral Nova Hmm, any POS with a cyno generator on it no longer produces anything (mining or reacting). And you can't turn the cyno generator off... Fun.
This coupled with the bridges means that supply is being turned off at just the time demand is being ramped up.
Me wonders how long this will affect supplies.. I mean, what numbers are we talking about here?
Patch was deployed when? .. thursday morning.. so we have a shortage since then. But how much is this shortage? 5%? 10%? 20%?
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.09 11:47:00 -
[29]
Once they get working again, some supplies will return right away (those people waiting for bridges to work before they move them), though those with towers not doing anything at all it will just be lost production time....
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Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2007.12.09 15:16:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Shar Tegral Rather ironic that you should list those items. I have gobs of them. In fact I sell Sylramic Fibers at 320.25% of purchase price and Fermionics at 284.23% of purchase price. Ferrogel, now there is where I think I'm going to really stick it to the market.
Ah, I'd been wondering who was doing that. Masterful job, really. Made me a few hundred million ISK too just buying from people that insist on selling to buy orders and buying from sell orders. Tried something similar myself in a different market, but I got trounced because I didn't have the technique down or the ISK to back my position.
So.. thanks for the ISK! --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs! |
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