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Nathan Grey
Gallente Black Lotus Heavy Industries Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2007.12.09 07:09:00 -
[1]
This is an "in before the whine" thread.
EAS, HICs, Maurauders, Black Ops, and Jump Freighters: everyone wants one, almost nobody has one. We've seen EAS and HICs hit the Empire markets over the last 24 hours, and a lot of pilots aren't very happy with the prices. "50M isk for a frigate? No way, I'll go buy a recon ship!" "250M for a cruiser? Not worth it." etc.
Remember the days before invention, when the price of HACs was spiraling up past 200M isk? Well, that's where we're at for the invented ships. There's low supply and high demand, so the price goes STRAIGHT up. If you don't believe that, go take an introductory economics course. Most of these ships will build in about 10-16h for frigates and 20-54h for the cruisers. I'm not sure about the battleships, and you shouldn't expect to see jump freighters until next year (17d-50d build times, ignoring components).
The prices will come down in time. I'd expect the frigates to stabilize around 15-20M isk, the cruisers around 150M, and the bigger stuff (especially the golem) "much higher". Jump Freighters have about a 3-4 month invention cycle, from copy to delivered.
For the next few weeks, however, everyone looking for those T2 ships should just chill out and let the market run its course. If you don't like the price, then don't pay it. Don't whine on the forums, don't whine to the seller or the manufacturer, just say "No, thank you" and continue on, without giving anyone grief.
Got that? Good.
-NG ----------------------------------
Industrialist. I build it. You buy it. You break it and buy another one. Market domination through ingue ferrogue. (I did this and could have stopped it.) |
pmacFTO
Caldari Dark Nova Crisis
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Posted - 2007.12.10 14:33:00 -
[2]
The same thing happens in all MMOs when new items are released - I've seen it in so many games....you can take advantage of those prices for a very short time then they start to plummet and you have to know when to get out or be left with a lot of expensive items that are now selling for less than you paid!
They will sell for silly prices for a few days, maybe weeks but then it will stabilize and the masses will be able to buy them.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 15:49:00 -
[3]
Originally by: pmacFTO They will sell for silly prices for a few days, maybe weeks but then it will stabilize and the masses will be able to buy them.
I'd say high prices will be around for a few months as the production lines and processes shake out for the bigger ships. Mind you, we will not see the commoditizing of many of these new ships like we saw with the t2 bpo items. And, without the constant building that bpo's can provide prices will fluctuate much more greatly than many suspect. We've seen what happens with a limited bpo environment, we've seen what happens when it is limited bpo's vs invention, now we are going to see what happens in a pure invention environment. (Yes, there were a few pure invention items - Nothing that wow'd the market though.)
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Still Hart
Black Lotus Heavy Industries Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2007.12.10 19:43:00 -
[4]
Prices are gonna go up and up. Demand has shifted with the influx of players since trinity was released. Quantity demanded has also increased with all the new players and new ships. Supply of datacores and decrypters has remained constant (wtf? why?) and supply of T2C has plummeted due to POS bugs.
The upshot of all this is that is costs more to invent, more to build and there's more people buying. Prices are gonna go thru the roof for the few ships that can be made with the remaining T2C.
Inventors are getting F*ED by CCP right now. My partners and I have several billion isk invested into invention BPC's that we can't build because components are becoming scarce. If we decide to pay the outrageous prices for the few remaining parts, prices will be at a level where players won't buy them.
This is unacceptable. I am VERY surprised that there isn't a huge uproar about this right now. CCP needs to get off its ass and balance out this stuff ASAP. Every T2 item in the game is getting more expensive and soon will be much harder to find.
Fix it CCP!
SH |
Argenton Sayvers
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Posted - 2007.12.10 20:10:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Still Hart This is unacceptable. I am VERY surprised that there isn't a huge uproar about this right now. CCP needs to get off its ass and balance out this stuff ASAP. Every T2 item in the game is getting more expensive and soon will be much harder to find.
Fix it CCP!
Congratulations, you have been market-ransomed by Argenton Sayvers (Benvie and that grumpy Preacher helped, but they arent as evil).
Yarrr ... i guess.
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Leowen
Industrial Giants
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Posted - 2007.12.10 20:43:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
We've seen what happens with a limited bpo environment, we've seen what happens when it is limited bpo's vs invention, now we are going to see what happens in a pure invention environment. (Yes, there were a few pure invention items - Nothing that wow'd the market though.)
Good point well made. The T2 BPO whining really got on my toots, when most of it was done by people with no idea about the realities of economics. It's going to be fun to watch those same people who called for the demise of 'The Lottery' to now whine about the prices of the new T2 ships now that there are no BPO's stabilising supply levels and thus market prices.
Waaaa, high prices, waaaa, corrupt manufacturers, waaaa, curse you CCP, waaa.... etc.
I think CCP gave in to The Mob and went too far when they killed off the T2 BPO Lottery. The correct solution I believe is a better-seeded lottery, constantly reviewed and reseeded in line with growing EVE population, and in conjunction with a well-adjusted Invention system. Shame they gave in to the wailing horde.
Bring back the Lottery!!
Leo
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.10 20:49:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Leowen
Originally by: Shar Tegral
We've seen what happens with a limited bpo environment, we've seen what happens when it is limited bpo's vs invention, now we are going to see what happens in a pure invention environment. (Yes, there were a few pure invention items - Nothing that wow'd the market though.)
Good point well made. The T2 BPO whining really got on my toots, when most of it was done by people with no idea about the realities of economics. It's going to be fun to watch those same people who called for the demise of 'The Lottery' to now whine about the prices of the new T2 ships now that there are no BPO's stabilising supply levels and thus market prices.
Waaaa, high prices, waaaa, corrupt manufacturers, waaaa, curse you CCP, waaa.... etc.
I think CCP gave in to The Mob and went too far when they killed off the T2 BPO Lottery. The correct solution I believe is a better-seeded lottery, constantly reviewed and reseeded in line with growing EVE population, and in conjunction with a well-adjusted Invention system. Shame they gave in to the wailing horde.
Bring back the Lottery!!
Leo
It seems like an auction-based system for a TII lottery would have been a decent idea. Making people bid RP's for them, only releasing a few at a time. I'm sure we've lost quite a lot of T2 BPO's to dead accounts. It would be interesting to learn just how many are sitting on in-active accounts actually.
But honestly invention only is probably a better system. Makes it far more interesting anyhow.
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Sphynx Stormlord
Gallente Anqara Tech
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Posted - 2007.12.10 20:57:00 -
[8]
Personally I am frightened by the T2 materials price increases - it sugests to me that every man and his talking cat are all inventing T2 battleships, and want to be able to build lots of them just as soon as the skill to do so has finished training.
320 people have bought Battleship construction in The Forge. And it's not the sort of skill you have to go to jita to buy. Comparitivly, also in the forge, there have been about 430 sales of the Marauders skill book, and about 400 sales of the Black Ops skill book.
Maybe each producer will only produce about 2-3 ships, but they have the ability to produce quite a few more than that.
I'm very worried that there isnt going to be the demand for Marauders and Black Ops ships that is willing to pay what the component cost dictates.
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:36:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord I'm very worried that there isnt going to be the demand for Marauders and Black Ops ships that is willing to pay what the component cost dictates.
This is going to be very true until the first combat report/video using Maruaders/Black Ops to own the crap out of someone. Once the platform is proven to be good... then demand will explode as there will be the "need to have" equipment. Black Ops are going to be a big "need to have" ship imho. I'm a member of Insurgency and I can tell you nothing is quite as tasty as being able to strike deep into someone else's backyard. Black Ops are going to be the new entry point for Cap ships imho. Lord knows I've not bothered with cap ships focusing on other aspects and I'm now looking at training up jump drive and assorted skills just to be able to field a Black Ops ship. (Not to mention it just matches up with my top notch covert skills.)
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Ione Hunt
0utbreak
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:44:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Ione Hunt on 10/12/2007 21:44:50 Prices will fall
The HICs won't cust more than HACs in the end. _______________
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:47:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Ione Hunt Prices will fall
Oh my. Damn... I hadn't realized that. Thank you for this as I'd have been totally surprised by this phenomenon. Per chance, pretty please, could you share with us a few more syllables perhaps. Along the lines of reasoning instead of stating the obvious. I'm sure you could do it if you tried! PS: That's sardonic there if I didn't get the textual inflections right.
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SencneS
Amarr Balsarferskratchin Inc Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:52:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Ione Hunt Edited by: Ione Hunt on 10/12/2007 21:44:50 Prices will fall
The HICs won't cust more than HACs in the end.
Actually the HIC costs more the make then the HAC. At Fridays prices it's 19,993,000.00 ISK to make a Zealot and 20,435,365.00 ISK for a Devoter at the SAME PRICE for the Complex reactions alone.
Sure not much more but all things considered it DOES cost more.
Amarr for Life |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 21:59:00 -
[13]
Originally by: SencneS Sure not much more but all things considered it DOES cost more.
And that does not consider invention costs. HAC's have a floor that inventors can not get under. T2 BPO owners can go to pure build cost on HACs. HIC's have no existing BPO's. This means that the bp cost on HIC builds will not only be passed on but it also means that the only floor on HIC's will be purely market driven. If the Pre-Invention market taught us anything... the market will bear the cost to a much greater degree then is currently being applied to it right now. Don't let the effect of invention on modules and other t2 items fool you none at all. Inventors are throttled mostly by t2 bpos, not the market. Remove that throttle and you get ... >???<
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Sphynx Stormlord
Gallente Anqara Tech
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Posted - 2007.12.10 22:18:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Sphynx Stormlord on 10/12/2007 22:18:15 Edited by: Sphynx Stormlord on 10/12/2007 22:17:50
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Inventors are throttled mostly by t2 bpos, not the market.
That depends on how well the T2 bpos supply the demand; if they dont fill the demand at current prices, then people have to invent to make up the difference, or the price goes up to reduce demand.
Most of the good T2 ships require invention to satisfy demand, and thus the price is dictated by invention, not bpo's.
I thought you were one of the smart ones who knew this. So what is your angle on telling people otherwise?
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.10 22:25:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord I thought you were one of the smart ones who knew this. So what is your angle on telling people otherwise?
Hmmm... so you want proof I'm smart eh? Okay, here's something an axiom that is infallible: State a generalization that has any exception to it and you'll soon find some "genius" jumping in to point out how un-smart you are.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.11 00:37:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Kazuo Ishiguro on 11/12/2007 00:38:05 With +9 run decryptors, the break-even point is roughly 75m isk per unit for HICs at pre-patch datacore prices. This will slowly fall in line with datacore costs (and possibly decryptor costs, if the supply is increased). My research services Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.11 01:24:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro With +9 run decryptors, the break-even point is roughly 75m isk per unit for HICs at pre-patch datacore prices. This will slowly fall in line with datacore costs (and possibly decryptor costs, if the supply is increased).
Not slashing at you... I was just wondering what kind of success ratio are you estimating on this invention run? The reason I ask is because I do my invention attempts in a batch. I track how many attempts I make, the cost for everything involved in each attempt, and keep track of the success I gain. The success have to be priced with the failures in mind or I'm tossing gobs of money away to bad cost analysis.
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Nathan Grey
Gallente Black Lotus Heavy Industries Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2007.12.11 02:32:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Sphynx Stormlord Personally I am frightened by the T2 materials price increases - it sugests to me that every man and his talking cat are all inventing T2 battleships, and want to be able to build lots of them just as soon as the skill to do so has finished training.
320 people have bought Battleship construction in The Forge. And it's not the sort of skill you have to go to jita to buy. Comparitivly, also in the forge, there have been about 430 sales of the Marauders skill book, and about 400 sales of the Black Ops skill book.
Maybe each producer will only produce about 2-3 ships, but they have the ability to produce quite a few more than that.
I'm very worried that there isnt going to be the demand for Marauders and Black Ops ships that is willing to pay what the component cost dictates.
The long-term demand for BOps and Marauders will be there. Especially for the Golem. You shouldn't even next to ask why, after comparing the stats of the Raven to the Golem.
I'm concerned about the T2C price increases -- and in turn, the increase in the advanced material prices. It all stems from the starbases breaking, which means that there will be no additional T2C input. Sounds like the RAM shortage revisited, but much, much bigger. Down in Rens, you won't find any reactors or thrusters, and it's impractical to build them with component prices.
I haven't touched T2 BS myself, but there's obviously both utility and profit in those ships. I can't afford to buy the T2C that I don't have to build the ship runs that I have invented, so I'm not going to bother.
Also, good isk says that if CCP doesn't have the starbase thing fixed soon, the cost of materials is going to pass up to the price of ships, and we'll be seeing 200M HACs again. ----------------------------------
Industrialist. I build it. You buy it. You break it and buy another one. Market domination through ingue ferrogue. (I did this and could have stopped it.) |
Nathan Grey
Gallente Black Lotus Heavy Industries Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2007.12.11 02:35:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: SencneS Sure not much more but all things considered it DOES cost more.
And that does not consider invention costs. HAC's have a floor that inventors can not get under. T2 BPO owners can go to pure build cost on HACs. HIC's have no existing BPO's. This means that the bp cost on HIC builds will not only be passed on but it also means that the only floor on HIC's will be purely market driven. If the Pre-Invention market taught us anything... the market will bear the cost to a much greater degree then is currently being applied to it right now. Don't let the effect of invention on modules and other t2 items fool you none at all. Inventors are throttled mostly by t2 bpos, not the market. Remove that throttle and you get ... >???<
...certain modules that cost 600k to invent, 200k to build, and sell for 1.2-1.6M isk. ----------------------------------
Industrialist. I build it. You buy it. You break it and buy another one. Market domination through ingue ferrogue. (I did this and could have stopped it.) |
SiJira
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Posted - 2007.12.11 02:42:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Nathan Grey
Also, good isk says that if CCP doesn't have the starbase thing fixed soon, the cost of materials is going to pass up to the price of ships, and we'll be seeing 200M HACs again.
a lot of people had their silos full of the items that should have been there days ago so dont expect the supply to just disappear from those few days Trashed sig, Shark was here |
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Devilish Ledoux
Caldari Naughty People The Gurlstas Associates
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Posted - 2007.12.11 06:29:00 -
[21]
It's also worth noting that the demand for a lot of ships (HICs, for instance) hasn't fully crystallized yet. Assuming someone started training the HIC skill the moment the server came up, he'd just be finishing it today or tomorrow. Right now, you have a situation where a lot of inventors stockpiled components that were much cheaper than they are now and the prices you see offered for the new ships reflects that, especially when you factor in the fact that a lot of pilots don't have their skills fully in place.
This isn't the same situation as when the new BCs and BSs came out. Then, a lot of people had all necessary skills immediately. Now, no matter how prepared, people still have to buy new books and train the skills before they're ready. While a few well-off pilots have gone ahead and purchased a ship the moment they reached level 1, many more are probably waiting until they're ready.
I'm sure a number of pilots have looked at the market and said, "Eh, prices will come down, I can't even fly it properly yet." But once those pilots start hitting HIC level IV (or down the road, Maurauder or Black Ops level IV), many of them will say, "Well, I want one, no sense waiting now." This increase in demand combined with the rising build costs might actually combine to see the prices on a lot of ships (new and old) increasing fairly steeply. Or if not climbing, at least not falling much. _ Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.
Originally by: CCP Explorer Aww, come on, what could possibly go wrong
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HawkBlade
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Posted - 2007.12.11 06:32:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Devilish Ledoux Good Stuff
Yeah! What he said.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.11 10:28:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro With +9 run decryptors, the break-even point is roughly 75m isk per unit for HICs at pre-patch datacore prices. This will slowly fall in line with datacore costs (and possibly decryptor costs, if the supply is increased).
Not slashing at you... I was just wondering what kind of success ratio are you estimating on this invention run?
I'm conservatively guessing a 25% base success chance. I doubt CCP would have bothered with any smaller change- it would take a very long time indeed for people to notice the difference.
So far, 5 successes out of 20 with the +9 runs decryptors - rather better than I was expecting, but not enough to draw any firm conclusions yet. By the way, you can look at delivered jobs via the science & industry screen if you want to see a record of your invention successes and failures.
The 75m estimate is a rough guess, but it should be accurate to within about 10m isk. It takes into account the whole invention-production cycle. You're not making it easy to come up with a decent estimate, though... My research services Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.12 16:44:00 -
[24]
Looks like 25% was a good guess: http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=657264&page=1#11 My research services Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant stats |
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