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Algorithm 5
Caldari Hakata Group Blade.
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Posted - 2007.12.16 21:21:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Vadimik
It's ironic in that my attempt at a more stable market for everyone is seen as an attempt for a high price for my own sale only.
5% loss now is better, no doubt. If it's a stand-alone sale. Except... It's not the last time you sell something. And unless we learn to control invention market, we will keep ending up with tiny profits every time a new FOTM invention based item (with possibly good profits) appears.
Since you can't produce Marauders profitably, it's obvious you should leave that market.
You leaving the market will help the invention market control itself.
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Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.16 21:31:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Algorithm 5
Originally by: Vadimik
It's ironic in that my attempt at a more stable market for everyone is seen as an attempt for a high price for my own sale only.
5% loss now is better, no doubt. If it's a stand-alone sale. Except... It's not the last time you sell something. And unless we learn to control invention market, we will keep ending up with tiny profits every time a new FOTM invention based item (with possibly good profits) appears.
Since you can't produce Marauders profitably, it's obvious you should leave that market.
You leaving the market will help the invention market control itself.
I think it's obvious that just asking everyone to leave is not going to work.
Not to lower prices blindly in hopes of quick sales is another thing. And that's what I do - I do not lower my prices below some line.
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Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.16 22:07:00 -
[33]
FYI: Just sold a Kronos at 1 B.
Jita price = 789m.
That is all.
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Mai Mailynn
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Posted - 2007.12.16 22:07:00 -
[34]
Edited by: Mai Mailynn on 16/12/2007 22:09:51 I have 3 spare Vargurs now. All are being listed at 1 bil, and not going any lower. I don't need the capital they represent, I have another 8 billion in liquid funds atm. They're staying on the market at 1 bil till they sell, or I blow up the one I'm using and need another. :P
That said, even insanely rich people would have to be foolish to look at this market and decide it'd be a good idea to buy up the 0 profit marauders and relist them at a more appropriate price. There's way too many with far too little demand, it would take ages to sell them all even if the rest of eve stopped building them entirely. :P
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Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.16 22:13:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Mai Mailynn Edited by: Mai Mailynn on 16/12/2007 22:09:51 I have 3 spare Vargurs now. All are being listed at 1 bil, and not going any lower. I don't need the capital they represent, I have another 8 billion in liquid funds atm. They're staying on the market at 1 bil till they sell, or I blow up the one I'm using and need another. :P
That said, even insanely rich people would have to be foolish to look at this market and decide it'd be a good idea to buy up the 0 profit marauders and relist them at a more appropriate price. There's way too many with far too little demand, it would take ages to sell them all even if the rest of eve stopped building them entirely. :P
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.16 22:15:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Vadimik
Originally by: Algorithm 5
Originally by: Vadimik
It's ironic in that my attempt at a more stable market for everyone is seen as an attempt for a high price for my own sale only.
5% loss now is better, no doubt. If it's a stand-alone sale. Except... It's not the last time you sell something. And unless we learn to control invention market, we will keep ending up with tiny profits every time a new FOTM invention based item (with possibly good profits) appears.
Since you can't produce Marauders profitably, it's obvious you should leave that market.
You leaving the market will help the invention market control itself.
I think it's obvious that just asking everyone to leave is not going to work.
Not to lower prices blindly in hopes of quick sales is another thing. And that's what I do - I do not lower my prices below some line.
Heh. The only difference is in your head.
If you think each inventable item is going to follow this same trend then don't invent in the future. You leaving the field will help everyone else who decides to stay in. You can help the market by taking your own advice. You can also help the rest of us by not trying to help us with advice that would really help you more than us.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.16 22:24:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Shadarle Heh. The only difference is in your head.
If you think each inventable item is going to follow this same trend then don't invent in the future. You leaving the field will help everyone else who decides to stay in. You can help the market by taking your own advice. You can also help the rest of us by not trying to help us with advice that would really help you more than us.
You are free to follow my advice not. You are free to read my posts not. You are free to disagree totally with anything I say. You can even try and give your own advice.
But one think you can't do is prevent me from posting my advice.
And so I post.
And once gain, I do invent and I get my profits. High profits. So my aim is more stable market for everyone, not profits for only greedy me, since I have them anyways.
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Tauralathan
NayTech Inc
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Posted - 2007.12.17 01:23:00 -
[38]
I'm curious as to what numbers you are using to get 0% profit or even losses at 800 million per Kronos?
Using Jita numbers, as of yesterday, I come up with 506,935,540 building cost per Kronos at ME -5. Assuming a Megathron hull is around 80 million, you're still picking up 200 million per unit in profit. Datacores*320 for 10 attempts is 480 million, best chance decryptors running you 130 million each (not really sure, haven't bought any as I stockpiled a lot prior to the patch) and you are only needing to sell 9 units before you are in the green.
Now if you have maxed skills and max run BPCs, unless the gods really dislike you, there shouldn't be a problem succeeding 3 or 4 times per set of 10 attempts. So you are looking at 1.4 billion in profits for 3 successes, 2.5 billion for 4 successes or heaven forbid 3.6 billion for five successes.
I guess you could be valuing your tech2 components at Jita price sell orders. Though anybody in the ship building business should be making their own components, in my opinion at least.
PS: I am apparently in ur markets making them crash?
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Devian 666
Igneus Auctorita GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.12.17 03:01:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Tauralathan I'm curious as to what numbers you are using to get 0% profit or even losses at 800 million per Kronos?
Using Jita numbers, as of yesterday, I come up with 506,935,540 building cost per Kronos at ME -5. Assuming a Megathron hull is around 80 million, you're still picking up 200 million per unit in profit. Datacores*320 for 10 attempts is 480 million, best chance decryptors running you 130 million each (not really sure, haven't bought any as I stockpiled a lot prior to the patch) and you are only needing to sell 9 units before you are in the green.
Now if you have maxed skills and max run BPCs, unless the gods really dislike you, there shouldn't be a problem succeeding 3 or 4 times per set of 10 attempts. So you are looking at 1.4 billion in profits for 3 successes, 2.5 billion for 4 successes or heaven forbid 3.6 billion for five successes.
I guess you could be valuing your tech2 components at Jita price sell orders. Though anybody in the ship building business should be making their own components, in my opinion at least.
PS: I am apparently in ur markets making them crash?
What would the cost of it be including the opportunity cost of not selling the t2 components on the market?
Originally by: Darcuese I wouldnt care about Goons tbh. Im more concern about ppl stupidity generally.
I need more sig |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.17 03:36:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Tauralathan I'm curious as to what numbers you are using to get 0% profit or even losses at 800 million per Kronos?
Using Jita numbers, as of yesterday, I come up with 506,935,540 building cost per Kronos at ME -5. Assuming a Megathron hull is around 80 million, you're still picking up 200 million per unit in profit. Datacores*320 for 10 attempts is 480 million, best chance decryptors running you 130 million each (not really sure, haven't bought any as I stockpiled a lot prior to the patch) and you are only needing to sell 9 units before you are in the green.
Now if you have maxed skills and max run BPCs, unless the gods really dislike you, there shouldn't be a problem succeeding 3 or 4 times per set of 10 attempts. So you are looking at 1.4 billion in profits for 3 successes, 2.5 billion for 4 successes or heaven forbid 3.6 billion for five successes.
I guess you could be valuing your tech2 components at Jita price sell orders. Though anybody in the ship building business should be making their own components, in my opinion at least.
PS: I am apparently in ur markets making them crash?
Remove the invention from the process. Use the cost of BPC's on the market. This eliminates having to calculate invention luck.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
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Tauralathan
NayTech Inc
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Posted - 2007.12.17 03:47:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Devian 666 What would the cost of it be including the opportunity cost of not selling the t2 components on the market?
Assuming you weren't being sarcastic, its a good question and I personally do not have the data. Riddic said in another thread that Golems were approaching the point at which they could be refined for profit. While I have no basis for comparison materials wise, they are only 50 million or so below the Kronos. So one can assume the profits from selling the t2 components would be around 150 million.
One thing not considered above is the fact that the components market is moderately inflated right now, as seen by the estimated 150 million gain from selling straight. In the end I'd say it comes down to personal preference right now. I like the fact that I am only competing with a hand full of sellers in the Kronos market, instead of dozens on the component side. Allowing me to focus on other things rather than checking up on my order all of the time.
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Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.17 05:45:00 -
[42]
Originally by: Tauralathan I'm curious as to what numbers you are using to get 0% profit or even losses at 800 million per Kronos?
1) Check contracts and behold some marauders that are about to sell (or have already been sold) on auctions for about 650-750m.
2) T2 components prices make it just as viable to sell them without building the marauder itself, so it's "~0 profit" above the level of T2 components.
(at ME - 3, T2 comps would sell for 550m, add 85m for mega and 150 for BPC run, and you get 785m)
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ishkabibble
Black Avatar
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Posted - 2007.12.17 06:35:00 -
[43]
Marauders are far from cost effective options for mission runners
Marauders are new ships the community needs to figure out how they fly
Their will never be a market for marauders because you can buy a faction ship at a lower price and less skill intensive
All you marauders T2 BS inventors and builders should stop crying that you lost isk, next time do your homework.
Just because you know how to invent and build doesnt mean you know how to sell. Marketing is a concept most of EvE has yet to understand ----------------------------------------- Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity - anonymous |
Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2007.12.17 08:38:00 -
[44]
Hehe. That price went down faster than I expected indeed. Too bad I have my own Golem cooking (for looting ofcource if I can be arsed to do that, as CNR is still faster in missions) as it would have been a lot less hassle for me to just buy it off market with that price.
Only thing suprising for me was the speed of price drop tho, not the end price itself as 'new tech 2 battleships' have been somewhat overhyped recently so everyone and his dog went for them.
Anyway. With that price it might even be worth for getting one as long term investment for looting those few missions that are worth looting (for those who are not building their own). Granted payback time might be a bit above reasonable, but risk of losing one is also quite negliable if you are just using it for looting.
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Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.17 08:58:00 -
[45]
Originally by: ishkabibble Marauders are far from cost effective options for mission runners
Marauders are new ships the community needs to figure out how they fly
Their will never be a market for marauders because you can buy a faction ship at a lower price and less skill intensive
All you marauders T2 BS inventors and builders should stop crying that you lost isk, next time do your homework.
Just because you know how to invent and build doesnt mean you know how to sell. Marketing is a concept most of EvE has yet to understand
What part of "I sell and make high profits" is hard to understand ?
Have you even bothered to read the thread before posting ?
It's not about no-demand (demand is there ok, even if you don't want to believe it), it's about producers that crash their own market for momentary gains.
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Banana Torres
The Green Banana Corporation
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Posted - 2007.12.17 09:17:00 -
[46]
Hello,
Banana the Marauder pilot here.
And like most Marauder pilots I have skills oozing out of arse. If you think you were going to price gouge me when I only had to train Battleship Construction IV before I could build my own ship then you are living in a dream world.
So now I have my nice Kronos, what am I going to do with the other 3 runs that my BPC had? The people that know me well tell me to keep them cause my poor Kronos has quite a small life expectancy. But instead I built them and even with a selling price of 800 million I am not out of pocket.
Just cause your goal in this game is to have the biggest, fattest wallet does not mean that is everyone else's goal too.
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Aslord
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Posted - 2007.12.17 10:01:00 -
[47]
well that the nature business, sometime you have to gamble.
t2 battleship inventor/producer lose this round and the t2 components suppliers win big.
now the only logical thing the inventor should do is cut their loses and sell quickly.
however, demand for t2 battleship might go up (people dont have the skill yet and people stop producing t2 batleship), so you might be better off holding for while (another gamble).
but, the price of t2 components will likely drop.
only time will tell where supply meet demand.
good on your gamble.
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ElCoCo
KIA Corp KIA Alliance
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Posted - 2007.12.17 10:06:00 -
[48]
The prices fell quickly because the wannabe t2 producers didn't have the stomach to wait and wanted to build for 500mil and sell at 2bil. |
Noveron
Caldari Long Live Me
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Posted - 2007.12.17 11:42:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Jennifer Meek Edited by: Jennifer Meek on 16/12/2007 15:02:59
Originally by: Noveron dont warn them pal, we, the buyers are happy.
Yeah, but if you invested all kinds of money into invention only to lose money hand over fist, you wouldn't be happy that you wasted your time.
The problem with invention is there is no real risk, players can't go pew pew invention assets.
It's like Hello Kitty Online.
If invention was low-sec POS only, T2 items would be cheaper than they were before invention (good), and only players who worked as a team would be able to invent, not these solo station hugger players who don't even undock from Jita 4-4 and whine on the forum omg jita laggy ccp fix jita!!!!
You need to have at least SOME smarts to run a low sec POS, the inventards would not have these smarts and therefore wouldnt exist, and any other inventards that come to low sec would promptly get blown out of the sky.
Why do you think moon minerals are profitable?
Understood.
Although I think there must be some room in the game for solo players, specially because after beeing 3 years in a corp, I decided to try solo for a while (although I dont invent).
On the moon minerals, profitable? Id say most arent profitable enough to run the pos that extracts them.
Profitable when used to manufacture reactions.. thats another thing. ---
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pershphanie
Deadly Addiction
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Posted - 2007.12.17 12:00:00 -
[50]
I havent seen any of them selling under build cost. They seem to be going about 800-1b. If it's costing you that much to build them then you're not doing it right. Your signature exceeds the maximum allowed dimensions of 400x120 pixels and filesize of 24000 bytes -Valorem ([email protected]) |
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Corporati Capitalis
Tollan Technologies
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Posted - 2007.12.17 12:03:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Tauralathan I guess you could be valuing your tech2 components at Jita price sell orders.
That's the only right way to do it, unless you are a fool. As for ship builders building their own components - check how many components can you build with one char with advanced mass production 4 per month, then check how many battleships you can build with said components per month. If you are building your own components and still have enough to cover your ship building needs, then you are a tiny, insignificant builder, or have an army of alts the size of a small alliance.
Using yesterday's Jita prices, it costs about 900! million to invent and build a Kronos, using Stolen Formulas. With the best decryptor it still costs some 800m so if you think you are making a profit at 700m sell price or whatnot, you are deluding yourself.
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Ione Hunt
0utbreak
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Posted - 2007.12.17 12:41:00 -
[52]
In past years when new ships and stuff came out prices were high due to limited amount (T2 BPOs).
Now everyone can just invent them, and supply has therefore risen by a lot. Everyone came on these forums and bought the "I'll sell my first few Marauders at XYZ billion profit" and therefore started inventing them. We're now at a point where supply is bigger than demand.
A lot of people are still figuring out if it's worth training for the new ships, or are still training the necessary skills. Demand will pick up, and prices might even rise a bit. However, the fact that so many ppl are into invention now means that prices adjust A LOT quicker than before.
The bottlekneck of it all is the amount of T2 comps _______________
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.12.17 18:03:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Vadimik It's not about no-demand (demand is there ok, even if you don't want to believe it), it's about producers that crash their own market for momentary gains.
It seems to be more about you whining that you can't compete with other people at the prices they are willing to charge.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Vadimik
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Posted - 2007.12.17 18:23:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Vadimik It's not about no-demand (demand is there ok, even if you don't want to believe it), it's about producers that crash their own market for momentary gains.
It seems to be more about you whining that you can't compete with other people at the prices they are willing to charge.
Since facts failed to persuade you in the opposite, I can only humbly hope that your delusions are harmless for the rest of us.
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Feirik
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Posted - 2007.12.17 20:35:00 -
[55]
Bottomline is that these ships arent especially good, so if someone carteled the market, the demand would just dissapear completly due to faction ships being cheaper.
These arent vagabonds, they will be used for missions (of which demand might keep stable, but faces competition from faction BS even as ppl train skills for em). The other potential buyers are those who use them for pvp, this is a better market group, as they loose more ships and buy new ones, but the competition vs faction BSes will again be very hard if price raises over 1b.
Why all this drama over obviously not that good ships?
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.17 20:47:00 -
[56]
Originally by: Feirik Why all this drama over obviously not that good ships?
To the best of my knowlege, T2 BS have been seen as the holy grail of pwnage and proffit making since T2 was introduced - hence a huge dissapointment for the vets and overconfidence from newer producers hearing all the nostalgia of predictions of how godly T2 BS would be. Just my opinion, could be wrong.
~Nyron |
Devian 666
Igneus Auctorita GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2007.12.17 21:54:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Corporati Capitalis
Originally by: Tauralathan I guess you could be valuing your tech2 components at Jita price sell orders.
That's the only right way to do it, unless you are a fool. As for ship builders building their own components - check how many components can you build with one char with advanced mass production 4 per month, then check how many battleships you can build with said components per month. If you are building your own components and still have enough to cover your ship building needs, then you are a tiny, insignificant builder, or have an army of alts the size of a small alliance.
Using yesterday's Jita prices, it costs about 900! million to invent and build a Kronos, using Stolen Formulas. With the best decryptor it still costs some 800m so if you think you are making a profit at 700m sell price or whatnot, you are deluding yourself.
This is what my question above was pushing for.
Why build the t2 bs if you would be better off concentrating your effort in the profitable part of the business.
Someone should run business training courses in eve teaching management science and operations research.
Originally by: Darcuese I wouldnt care about Goons tbh. Im more concern about ppl stupidity generally.
I need more sig |
Sicil Fioet
Minmatar
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Posted - 2007.12.17 23:54:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Tauralathan I'm curious as to what numbers you are using to get 0% profit or even losses at 800 million per Kronos?
Using Jita numbers, as of yesterday, I come up with 506,935,540 building cost per Kronos at ME -5. Assuming a Megathron hull is around 80 million, you're still picking up 200 million per unit in profit. Datacores*320 for 10 attempts is 480 million, best chance decryptors running you 130 million each (not really sure, haven't bought any as I stockpiled a lot prior to the patch) and you are only needing to sell 9 units before you are in the green.
How can this be? I just calculated ME -5 build cost for a Golem using Forge lowest prices on components and got 900 mil (i'm assuming Kronos would be about same price) plus bpcs are selling at 50 mil per run. If people selling Golems have stockpiled components from long back ago surely they can make more money just selling building materials on the market now for 900 mil rather than selling them in the form of T2 bs going for 750-800 mil.
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3nkil
The Chocolate Factory
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Posted - 2007.12.18 00:10:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Sicil Fioet
Originally by: Tauralathan I'm curious as to what numbers you are using to get 0% profit or even losses at 800 million per Kronos?
Using Jita numbers, as of yesterday, I come up with 506,935,540 building cost per Kronos at ME -5. Assuming a Megathron hull is around 80 million, you're still picking up 200 million per unit in profit. Datacores*320 for 10 attempts is 480 million, best chance decryptors running you 130 million each (not really sure, haven't bought any as I stockpiled a lot prior to the patch) and you are only needing to sell 9 units before you are in the green.
How can this be? I just calculated ME -5 build cost for a Golem using Forge lowest prices on components and got 900 mil (i'm assuming Kronos would be about same price) plus bpcs are selling at 50 mil per run. If people selling Golems have stockpiled components from long back ago surely they can make more money just selling building materials on the market now for 900 mil rather than selling them in the form of T2 bs going for 750-800 mil.
shhhhhh
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Jet Jettix
Minmatar The Suicide Kings FOUNDATI0N
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Posted - 2007.12.18 14:21:00 -
[60]
I was actually considering something along the lines of this as a Market Manipulation trick, only yesterday.
The most basic rule of markets and trade is:
Supply and Demand. When the Supply meets the demand of the market, the price is stable. When the supply is higher than the demand, the price drops. When the Demand is higher than the supply, the price increases.
My idea was based on this, just considering minerals.
Basically I was thinking, that if you start ammassing minerals in huge quantities (the method is irrellevant, you can have a mining corp mine for a couple of months or just buy huge stocks of it), then seed the minerals in huge quantities to the market, at say 50% the price of what it would cost normally. This would result in other competitors having to undercut their previous price by a lot to sell their stock. You can then buy as much of the available minerals on the market as possible for the money you have earned undercutting everyone. Because supply is larger than demand, supply have to drop to allow people to make profit, but supply is irrelevant as long as you control enough of the available stock on the market and keep selling it cheap.
The situation that comes out of this can be called a crash, since several of the players in the market will be turned away from a seemingly unprofitable market environment, and in eve this can happen quickly, meaning you have to sell less of your stock, and sell less of your stock for a potential loss. When you have decieded that enough competitors have been turned away and that you have gained enough of the previously available stocks (sold before the market crash), you stop seeding the market with minerals, and hopefully demand will be bigger than supply, leading to a rise in price, perhaps 200%-300% of the price before the crash. This is when you start selling your left over stock for a profit (the best possible outcome is that you have a larger stocks of minerals than when you started), keeping the price high. The other competitors who stuck it out during the crash will certainly also make a profit, and those who quit during the crash will come back, and slowly bring supply and demand back into balance, but by this time you have hopefully made enough of a profit for this to have been worth it.
I imaging that a similiar scheme can be made on the early T2 invention market, especially if people are selling the BPs for 0 return.
Anyways, I am not a Trader, only a humble PVPer, without a real knowledge on how the market works.
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