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D'wayne
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Posted - 2008.01.18 15:48:00 -
[1]
I have noticed the price of Ravens dropping considerably, and people selling off their BPOS for much less than they were a few months ago.
I know t1 mineral prices are dropping but is there another reason? It cant just be the Golems, they are 5x the price and need a lot more skills.
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2008.01.18 15:55:00 -
[2]
Most people that want a Raven allready own one, mission running ships rarely die in competent hands and Eve is slowing down in it's expansion 1 month after Trinity.
~Nyron
Originally by: Minerva Vulcan But poor victimized Ulf...I weep lavender scented tears for you.
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Jackie Fisher
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Posted - 2008.01.18 15:59:00 -
[3]
I'd have thought the drop in CNR prices would have made more of an impact than Golems.
I also wouldn't rule out Trinity torp changes as making Ravens less popular for missions.
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Myrdyr
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:00:00 -
[4]
Pretty close to a hat trick there, Kirjava, for completely misunderstanding a market.
Sell prices get pushed closer to build cost as competition increases. Also important to note is that only weapon large-volume builders have is to go below build cost as calculated by mineral sell orders in order to discourage competition.
The price of Dominix is also interesting to watch, as it approaches the point where you can self destruct them for insurance for profit.
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Relyen
Caldari Digital Fury Corporation Digital Renegades
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:27:00 -
[5]
I would say it's definitly a combination of things. Tech 1 Minerals dropping in price will automatically shave some cost off the raven and all t1 ships. If you combine that with more people selling ravens and less people buying them. Finally, if you take in account both the recent torp change, the slightly cheaper navy raven, and the golem you get even less people wanting to buy more ravens.
So, competition gets going and people keep undercutting and the price inevitably drops.
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Ciuby
Gallente Romania Production Inc.
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:31:00 -
[6]
whatever...
i still can't understand why people build ravens and sell them :) if they had a BPO they would be much better making bpcs and if they buy the bpcs, they don't make any profit...
so, why i ask you? __________ Freighter for hire! |
Relyen
Caldari Digital Fury Corporation Digital Renegades
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:36:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Ciuby whatever...
i still can't understand why people build ravens and sell them :) if they had a BPO they would be much better making bpcs and if they buy the bpcs, they don't make any profit...
so, why i ask you?
You can still make profit with BPC's (long as you don't buy them for insane prices), just not as much.
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Brisco Smiley
Peppermint Bay Trading Company
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:41:00 -
[8]
The Raven is a high-profile item. There may be enough unintelligent operators in the market to make a visible difference. People may be neglecting material cost for minerals mined themselves or riding the price trend down below their cost simply because they do not track their cost.
Originally by: Myrdyr The price of Dominix is also interesting to watch, as it approaches the point where you can self destruct them for insurance for profit.
That is an interesting metric. I'll have to start tracking it. I usually look at reprocess value since I don't trade in ships.
Cheers,
Brisco Smiley
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D'wayne
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:47:00 -
[9]
I don't think more people are building Ravens. Why would there be a huge influx of builders, specifically, after Trinity? Mineral prices have dropped but it's the profit margin thats dropping, not just the price.
Perhaps some people are choosing Golems and CNRs instead of the standard T1 ship, but this is a pretty small number of players (500m is a lot for majority of players), not big enough to have an affect on global sales.
Which leaves the torp changes. Yup, I reckon thats the one.
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Ciuby
Gallente Romania Production Inc.
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Posted - 2008.01.18 16:54:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Relyen
You can still make profit with BPC's (long as you don't buy them for insane prices), just not as much.
but is the effort worth it? i think not...
also, i don't know about you, but i noticed a fall in all ship prices and the profit margins getting lower by the day... __________ Freighter for hire! |
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Relyen
Caldari Digital Fury Corporation Digital Renegades
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Posted - 2008.01.18 17:15:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Ciuby
but is the effort worth it? i think not...
also, i don't know about you, but i noticed a fall in all ship prices and the profit margins getting lower by the day...
Can't argue with you there.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.01.18 17:38:00 -
[12]
It has everything to do with mineral prices and being the most popular ship in EVE. Prices have not fallen below the point where you can make a profit producing them.
Golem's havn't impacted prices, CNR's havn't impacted prices.
Prices will def stop falling soon though as we're hitting the bottom edge prices can possibly fall to.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Monty Kvaran
Caldari Consolidated Sprocket
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Posted - 2008.01.18 17:42:00 -
[13]
In a perfectly effeciant market, the only reason you would copy a BPO would be for invention... It takes about 3x as long to copy a Raven BP as it does to produce a raven. If someone is buying the BPC, it means that there is enough profit to be made manufacturing it that they can afford to give you a cut. But then, if you had just manufactured the Raven, you would have produced 3, taking your cut 3 times, pluss what ever the profit is in the manufacturing itself. Sure, there is some value in not needing to keep a logistics operation going to support your manufacturing, but I doubt it is worth earning 1/3rd what you could from the BPO. (Remember - Opportunity Cost) You can even undercut the BPC user, because you only need 1/3rd the profit from that part of the process to be ahead...
A free market has a tendency of promoting the most efficiant market activity, which selling BPCs for manufacture is not. I think thats partially what is happening here. . |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.01.18 17:46:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Monty Kvaran In a perfectly effeciant market, the only reason you would copy a BPO would be for invention... It takes about 3x as long to copy a Raven BP as it does to produce a raven. If someone is buying the BPC, it means that there is enough profit to be made manufacturing it that they can afford to give you a cut. But then, if you had just manufactured the Raven, you would have produced 3, taking your cut 3 times, pluss what ever the profit is in the manufacturing itself. Sure, there is some value in not needing to keep a logistics operation going to support your manufacturing, but I doubt it is worth earning 1/3rd what you could from the BPO. (Remember - Opportunity Cost) You can even undercut the BPC user, because you only need 1/3rd the profit from that part of the process to be ahead...
Only this does not account for any of the more intricate reasons people need copies or make copies. Thus is a rather pointless argument.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Adrimar
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Posted - 2008.01.18 17:49:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Monty Kvaran In a perfectly effeciant market, the only reason you would copy a BPO would be for invention... It takes about 3x as long to copy a Raven BP as it does to produce a raven. If someone is buying the BPC, it means that there is enough profit to be made manufacturing it that they can afford to give you a cut. But then, if you had just manufactured the Raven, you would have produced 3, taking your cut 3 times, pluss what ever the profit is in the manufacturing itself. Sure, there is some value in not needing to keep a logistics operation going to support your manufacturing, but I doubt it is worth earning 1/3rd what you could from the BPO. (Remember - Opportunity Cost) You can even undercut the BPC user, because you only need 1/3rd the profit from that part of the process to be ahead...
Only this does not account for any of the more intricate reasons people need copies or make copies. Thus is a rather pointless argument.
Too true.
Completely ignores the investment needed to buy a BPO, the security of copying in highsec space against moving bpos into low/0.0, etc. etc.
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Fenderson
Einherjar Rising Cry Havoc.
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Posted - 2008.01.18 19:52:00 -
[16]
i think ravens are crashing due to overproduction. trinity caused a sudden spike in demand, and producers increased production to match it. then demand started falling again, and producers were still producing according to higher levels of demand which are no longer present, hence overproduction.
DO YOU PLAY POKER???? Join ingame channels "DOA Poker" and "Eve Online Hold'em" |
Ulstan
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Posted - 2008.01.18 19:55:00 -
[17]
Quote: Most people that want a Raven allready own one, mission running ships rarely die
Raven was the most produced and most lost ship in EVE.
Sure mission running ships rarely die in well skilled well knowledgeable hands, but not all the hands that do missioning are 3 year vets.
If I had to guess, it would be a combination of the following:
1) Nerfing of torps: ravens slightly slower now, so other ships look slightly better by comparison 2) Introduction of golem appealing to players with lots of skills 3) Crashing of LP store meaning CNR's are now about 1/2 the price they were before. This appeals to players with out the skills needed to fly the golem.
That's three different bites out of the Raven demographic.
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Seira Black
Companion Cube Industries
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Posted - 2008.01.18 20:21:00 -
[18]
Question then is if the buyers aren't buying Raven's, what are they buying? I don't think I've seen an huge move towards CNR's, so sure if they've moved to a different ship you should see that in the market history? I also don't think the effect from Maurauders will be seen yet, most likely in a month or two.
Either that or a low demand slump as people simply aren't buying.
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Ciuby
Gallente Romania Production Inc.
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Posted - 2008.01.18 20:31:00 -
[19]
oh, but people are buying lots of them :) just make 10 ravens and see how fast you sell them if you are first on the list
the problem is that there are too many producers and that drives the price down __________ Freighter for hire! |
Mtber
Caldari Mtber Corp
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Posted - 2008.01.18 20:35:00 -
[20]
Looking at the price history of Ravens(at least in my region) shows that sales have been absolutely steady for the last 12 months and might even have increased slightly recently.
Looking at the prices shows that Raven prices are highly cyclical and they are probably at the bottom of the cycle just now. A good time to invest in a few bpcs maybe ?
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Thoran Karlien
N.U.R.S.E. New EVE Rising
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Posted - 2008.01.18 20:49:00 -
[21]
Just a quick question. If you are saying, less people are buying ravens, because they are buying cnr or golems... is there any way to get a cnr or golem without using a raven as material?
Originally by: Kirjava If I had 10isk for every troll post on these forums.....
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.01.18 21:08:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Thoran Karlien Just a quick question. If you are saying, less people are buying ravens, because they are buying cnr or golems... is there any way to get a cnr or golem without using a raven as material?
You also have to consider that CNR's/Golem's die far less often. So using 1 Raven to build either of those is not really the same as using a Raven to run missions. The mission raven has a much higher chance of blowing up statistically.
That said, people are really not thinking clearly about this. Check the number of Ravens sold on the market... they are pretty much steady as was said in a past post. So obviously the demand is not drying up. It would be nice if people actually checked the market before making claims that were clearly false.
If you are not a Raven manufacturer or at least well versed in Raven manufacturing prices then you honestly are just taking wild guesses. If you add up the build costs you will realize that people are still making profits building them. Raven's are one of the largest mineral sinks in all of EVE. They are a pretty good indicator of mineral prices. Their primary mineral is Trit. What happened to trit prices lately? Heavy decline. Check the graphs of the two. Raven prices trail trit prices by a few weeks. As people started buying minerals at lower prices they would undercut prices and you'd see a downward trend.
You don't have to come up with complex answers to this.
It's not torps. If it was then the sales of Raven's would be declining. It's not CNR's/Golem's. If it was then the sales of Raven's would be declining. That isn't happening.
It's mineral prices! This is always the most important factor in T1 prices.
Tanking Setups Compared
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Danari
Amarr Viper Squad Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.01.19 12:30:00 -
[23]
:) Got I love trying to track the causal relationship of supply and demand.
Did raven prices tank because of mineral price drops, or did minerals tank because of raven (and eve-wide) demand drops.
My raven sales dropped over 20% the last month vs. the month prior. And I observed mineral prices drop about 5% in that time. So at first glance one might say decreased demand tanked minerals.
But my overall sales increased about 25% between the two months even as raven volume decreased (partly due to inexplicably strong geddon sales wtf), which would suggest that the mineral market should have heated up, yet it is still being inexorably pushed downward by macro-riceballs.
So imo raven prices are down because of soft demand, mineral prices are down because of oversupply, and overall the eve economy is stronger than ever.
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Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools Power Corrupts Industry's
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Posted - 2008.01.19 16:02:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Shadarle If it was then the sales of Raven's would be declining. It's not CNR's/Golem's. If it was then the sales of Raven's would be declining.
I think too many poster's were u'sing too many apostrophe's on their Raven's, and the re'sulting 'shortage 'seriou'sly 'sapped 'supplie's of the'se expen'sive object's.
MP --
Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compressionexpansion! WTF? |
Proton Power
Amarr Power Corrupts Tech Axiom Empire
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Posted - 2008.01.20 07:42:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Danari :) Got I love trying to track the causal relationship of supply and demand.
Did raven prices tank because of mineral price drops, or did minerals tank because of raven (and eve-wide) demand drops.
My raven sales dropped over 20% the last month vs. the month prior. And I observed mineral prices drop about 5% in that time. So at first glance one might say decreased demand tanked minerals.
But my overall sales increased about 25% between the two months even as raven volume decreased (partly due to inexplicably strong geddon sales wtf), which would suggest that the mineral market should have heated up, yet it is still being inexorably pushed downward by macro-riceballs.
So imo raven prices are down because of soft demand, mineral prices are down because of oversupply, and overall the eve economy is stronger than ever.
I have to agree with some of this. I think over all BS's are in steady demand due to 2 things, 1) Invention 2) Current Wars. Right now War is everywhere, and people have went back to the Carrier / BS Fleets it seems.
Minerals I am not so sure on what is up with them. Between the current war, invention, and super cap's I would think minerals would be at all time highs, so as you said supply must be way over welming right now. -----------------------------------------------
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=439797Cli |
Rho'varo
Parvo Universalis
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Posted - 2008.01.20 08:02:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
I think too many poster's were u'sing too many apostrophe's on their Raven's, and the re'sulting 'shortage 'seriou'sly 'sapped 'supplie's of the'se expen'sive object's.
MP
WTS: Apostrophe's
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Hena Penaza
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Posted - 2008.01.20 23:27:00 -
[27]
usually with the coming of a patch especially one promising new stuff to build mineral prices spike, but they can't stay spiked forever ...
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