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Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 30 post(s) |
JusFooling Around
JusFooling Around Corp
90
|
Posted - 2013.02.09 18:38:00 -
[1441] - Quote
[ [/quote]
4 were with 50% bought, the rest were with one bought, every blink was with 8 tickets.
(1/2)^4*(1-(1/8))^28 = .14% chance of occuring.
At that probability, you stop, and you ask yourself "Is it possible that it's not fair? Could it be, that instead of being fair, that there's some sort of rigging going on behind the scenes?"
To clarify: If I have a coin, with heads and tails, and I flip it 100 times, and every time it's heads- what are my odds on the next flip that it'll be heads?
If you use frequency statistics, you'll say 50%. If you use Bayesian statics, you'll say it'll be heads.
In short, I felt the numbers being generated were odd enough that I wouldn't play anymore. How I got myself banned was to loudly and frequently say I was botting in the main channel until I got a ban.
Now, it's entirely possible that blink is 100% fair, and that my one string of bad luck is indeed a statistical anomaly. They happen. I'd have to go AT LEAST 100 games, and to be halfway accurate, go 500 games. I didn't have the isk at the time though.[/quote]
I'm glad you did not actually cheat, so I apologize for the slur. I am also glad you recognizze a losing streak you suffered is possible. I am frustrated by long streaks as well, but like the old story about the business equipment salesman who averaged one sale a day. At 4pm, he walked out of a business who had just given him the same "no" he'd heard all day and was very excited about making his last call of the day, because he knew in his heart that this was the ONE!
But the numbers don't know or care which number came last or next, any other way and it would not be random.
Good luck in your other ventures in Eve or wherever you go next. Just remember, this is all supposed to be fun, so when it isn't any longer, stop and do something else. Life is too short to spend it doing anything else but having fun, without hurting others or your self in the process.
Good luck. |
Selkie Love
Native Freshfood Minmatar Republic
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.09 21:55:00 -
[1442] - Quote
^_^
I have isk now, tempted to create an account simply to do 500+ blinks and see what odds occur.
Then I'd have to it without being the one to create the blink every time. Might be interesting to see the results |
JusFooling Around
JusFooling Around Corp
90
|
Posted - 2013.02.10 06:41:00 -
[1443] - Quote
Selkie Love wrote:^_^
I have isk now, tempted to create an account simply to do 500+ blinks and see what odds occur.
Then I'd have to it without being the one to create the blink every time. Might be interesting to see the results
You really don't have to go to all that trouble, besides if they catch you playing after being banned, you'll lose the isk.
Plenty of players have given you enough data to see how it turns out. There are a lot of players who play one or two numbers.
You can look on the stats page and find some under the stat of most blinks played, and then lok at the circle thingy that shows the volume of times they have played certain numbers.
Here's an even better way and is no risk. Pick out ten numbers you might play and then you can get ten random numbers from Random.org and do it 50 times. They have a lot of free services. You could just pick one number and ask them for 500 random numbers 1-8 inclusive and then count the number of times your number was hit. You can look at the stream of the 500 numbers to see how many consecutive losses your number might have. I'd guess the overall selection rate would be very close to 12.5% or 1 in 8, but the real tale will be in the consecutive hits which I doubt would be anywhere near 1 in 8.
Email the guy that runs it, Mads Haar I think (if that really is his name, lol) is a likeable guy and will respond quickly. I had a lot of contact with him a few years ago in a project for my employer and became pretty familiar with the method. When I found out Blink was using them, I felt a lot better. It started out in a university setting and the guy is mad scientist who only cares about numbers. Random.org even provides lottery numbers to some small country's national lotteries, or at least did at one time.
Look at the site and shoot him an email, tell him about any concerns you may have. He's a straight shooter.
Good luck! Enjoy every day!
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Swedish Spaceman
The Studmuffin's SpaceMonkey's Alliance
17
|
Posted - 2013.02.10 11:07:00 -
[1444] - Quote
And another weekly celebration is over, I would like to thank all the staff for another awesome week of blinking. And of course, grats to all the winners of the bonk/minibonk. |
Nikos Kabasis
The Greek Connection
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 08:17:00 -
[1445] - Quote
Because statistics says lies some times here is my Blink Statistics
Blinks Played 31 ISK Deposited 150,000,000 ISK Promo Blinks Played 11 Win Ratio 35.48% (the average that i have see in most big players is 10-15 %) Blinks Won 11 Value of Blinks Won 624,000,000 ISK Megablinks Won 0 Winnings Transformed to Blink Credit 113,778,000 ISK Promo Blinks Won 0 Winnings Transformed to ISK 326,880,000 ISK
That u must calculate is Winnings Transformed to ISK minus ISK Deposited so... 326,8 - 150m = 176,8m profit (plus the items that u hub in jita, if any)
so how about yours statistics? |
DrJonF Rockit
Zebra Corp Gentlemen's Agreement
2
|
Posted - 2013.02.14 19:29:00 -
[1446] - Quote
today is not my day to bet. I will stop now.... for today.
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lonix Depran
Sarcos Fleet Caldari Services Corporation Beacon Light Alliance
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.16 10:43:00 -
[1447] - Quote
RUS Comannder wrote:Babar Baboli wrote:If I win the current minibonk, I will start a blog to salute all of you in Cognitive Distortion! Think about it! I thought about it. What i thought was it sounds like a guy who thinks a statement like that will scare everyone at Blink into somehow bestowing a win on you, as the meta message you are sending is that if you DON'T happen to be chosen by Random.org as a winner, you will blog unkind things about Blink. You may not be be aware that they have had cheesy threats before, lived thru goofy accusations until the would be extortionists got tired of being laughed at. Yeah, I thought about. Now it is time for you to think about it and how idiotic it sounds, even if it was meant in jest. Good luck on the draw.
i saw this a more of a humorus atempt to bribe them, not threten |
Potato Cakes
The Pulsar Innovation Bebop and Rocksteady Henchmen Academy
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.23 18:34:00 -
[1448] - Quote
Blinks Played2,130 ISK Deposited9,868,048,484 ISK Promo Blinks Played1,037 Win Ratio31.83% Blinks Won678 Value of Blinks Won20,908,001,250 ISK Megablinks Won1 Winnings Transformed to Blink Credit8,867,185,000 ISK Promo Blinks Won5 Winnings Transformed to ISK1,744,920,000 ISK
Seems fine to me, considering the promo wins included a freighter and archon.
Keep up the awesome, yet addicting, work Somer! |
iKill Giants
Asteria Imperative High Rollers
4
|
Posted - 2013.02.24 06:31:00 -
[1449] - Quote
toasting this bread, buttered with 1.5bil in winnings |
Ra1ne
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
2
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 10:11:00 -
[1450] - Quote
any update on the issues? Site still down for me :( |
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Andrev Nox
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
169
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 10:30:00 -
[1451] - Quote
Heya!
Our host's upstream ISP is having issues, but they're working to resolve it as fast as humanly possible. We're right here anxiously waiting too, believe me :p Somer Blink - The original microlottery site. |
Alice Saki
Suddenly Spaced Out Suddenly Spaceships.
31733
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 10:50:00 -
[1452] - Quote
MUST GAMBLE!
GIve me Blink Back :P Thanks Zimmy <3 |
Thats OK
Pygmy Armada
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 13:20:00 -
[1453] - Quote
Liking the blinking but you could use a guy with a sense of humor on chat channel |
Thorgril
Eye of God Circle-Of-Two
2
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 14:26:00 -
[1454] - Quote
Just today, after playing just too many blinks for about a week, i noticed this :
"This time, we'll draw five winners to each receive 50 billion ISK. One win per person. If you've won Blast in the past, you cannot win again."
So... i won 50 bil before... it means, if my number comes out.. i wont get my prize? That's a joke right?
This is the same thing as writing on a Casino Door, if you won something here, go elsewhere... That should be in CAPITAL letters on the MAIN page.
I feel like being almost scammed like one of those Jita fools...
That's my protest. That's Somer Blinks saying.. you already won, just go away, dont play the game anymore.
Think about it.. it's just wrong.
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Somerset Mahm
Cognitive Distortion
149
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 14:31:00 -
[1455] - Quote
Ra1ne wrote:any update on the issues? Site still down for me :( Today has not been a very good day. Sorry for all the trouble :(
Everything is up currently, crossing fingers it all stays smooth.
The server itself is / was fine, the issue was a network problem with the upstream provider that knocked our server and some others offline. SOMER Blink Microlotteries that finish in minutes! Running for over 2 years :) |
Swedish Spaceman
The Studmuffin's SpaceMonkey's Alliance
17
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 15:17:00 -
[1456] - Quote
Hello everyone. Im as most of you know, currently in the hospital awaiting surgery. (should be done by tomorrow.) I just wanted to say thank you for everyones support during the past weeks, I greatly appriciate it. At least I have a crappy old mini pc to at least check mails and stuff while being in this damn hospital bed.
Take care everyone and good luck in the upcomming draw.
I will try to be back, blinking away ASAP.
//Swede |
Hambonie
Take it Deep
31
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 17:07:00 -
[1457] - Quote
Good Luck with the surgery will say a prayer for you |
Titanium PIg
Lynching Little Swans
35
|
Posted - 2013.02.26 21:23:00 -
[1458] - Quote
Swedish Spaceman wrote:Hello everyone. Im as most of you know, currently in the hospital awaiting surgery. (should be done by tomorrow.) I just wanted to say thank you for everyones support during the past weeks, I greatly appriciate it. At least I have a crappy old mini pc to at least check mails and stuff while being in this damn hospital bed.
Take care everyone and good luck in the upcomming draw.
I will try to be back, blinking away ASAP.
//Swede
Get well soon mate, and hope to see you up and about real soon.
|
Ra1ne
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
2
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 00:11:00 -
[1459] - Quote
Somerset Mahm wrote:Ra1ne wrote:any update on the issues? Site still down for me :( Today has not been a very good day. Sorry for all the trouble :( Everything is up currently, crossing fingers it all stays smooth. The server itself is / was fine, the issue was a network problem with the upstream provider that knocked our server and some others offline.
well its been messing about all evening...for me atleast. damned internets lol |
Snyperskov
Brave Newbies Inc.
6
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 06:58:00 -
[1460] - Quote
Lol you guys would have frustrating server issues the very first day I decide to blink. (maybe it's a sign...). Looking forward to having the problems resolved soon. |
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Swedish Spaceman
The Studmuffin's SpaceMonkey's Alliance
17
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 13:46:00 -
[1461] - Quote
So... Im still alive. surgery went well, and I now have new shiney synthetic heart valves. I will be back home sometime next week I think. Thanks again for all your thoughts and prayers. it really helped me get through this.
Fly reckless and blink safe everyone //Swede |
Buhhdust Princess
Mind Games. Suddenly Spaceships.
492
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 14:31:00 -
[1462] - Quote
Heyy just seen all this but grats on the successful operation.
You are now a Rogue Drone. |
Ra1ne
Republic Military School Minmatar Republic
2
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 15:12:00 -
[1463] - Quote
gratz on the successfull opp.
in blink news..... blink no worky |
Third Legion
Doppelganger Misfortune Fade 2 Black
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 15:50:00 -
[1464] - Quote
Swedish Spaceman wrote:So... Im still alive. surgery went well, and I now have new shiney synthetic heart valves. I will be back home sometime next week I think. Thanks again for all your thoughts and prayers. it really helped me get through this.
Fly reckless and blink safe everyone //Swede
So glad to hear you are OK SS. Hope to see you back in game soon.
|
BrutalButFair
Fleet of the Damned Happy Endings
70
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 16:52:00 -
[1465] - Quote
i get site not configured error. Still broken? |
DrJonF Rockit
Zebra Corp Gentlemen's Agreement
2
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 18:10:00 -
[1466] - Quote
Not that I have any more isk in the system at the moment. I'm not raging. But I do have prizes unclaimed. I'm more thinking you should put up a sticky or at least some kind of fool proof STATUS page if you aren't going to reach out for help with your server issues. It is obvious to me (at least I am paranoid enough to think this out) that somebody has been actively attacking your site. Is that possible?
Hope you iron all of this out, I'm having fun being addicted to the blinks!
Thanks for over 2Bil in winnings.
oh and all the scammers who try to contract me out of winnings ... you can suck it. |
Lanfear Huren
Tuatha'An
0
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 19:06:00 -
[1467] - Quote
Swedish Spaceman wrote:So... Im still alive. surgery went well, and I now have new shiney synthetic heart valves. I will be back home sometime next week I think. Thanks again for all your thoughts and prayers. it really helped me get through this.
Fly reckless and blink safe everyone //Swede
Glad to hear that you are doing ok. Heal up fast and see you back in space sometime soon. =) |
Shalia Ripper
370
|
Posted - 2013.02.27 19:07:00 -
[1468] - Quote
Swedish Spaceman wrote:So... Im still alive. surgery went well, and I now have new shiney synthetic heart valves. I will be back home sometime next week I think. Thanks again for all your thoughts and prayers. it really helped me get through this.
Fly reckless and blink safe everyone //Swede
Come back soon, Swede. Vote for Malcanis for CSM8
|
Swedish Spaceman
The Studmuffin's SpaceMonkey's Alliance
18
|
Posted - 2013.03.01 18:47:00 -
[1469] - Quote
Thanks for all the support guys, It really helps. You are all AWESOME!!! Now if all goes well I may be comming home tomorrow (Saturday) or on Sunday.
On another note, blink seems to be down. :( Seems like this is the celebration for website problems huh?
Anyway, good luck in the draw later everyone. I will be crossing my fingers all night. Take care guys, I'll be back blinking away, soon... very soon... |
Somerset Mahm
Cognitive Distortion
150
|
Posted - 2013.03.01 19:50:00 -
[1470] - Quote
The server required some new heart valves so we put it under the knife.
Now we have a bionic Swedish server with robot parts and the site is up.
:P SOMER Blink Microlotteries that finish in minutes! Running for over 2 years :) |
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